When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

[PNWLeccy]

Tesla has the most incentive to save the battery and manufacturing costs on it's highest-volume product - the MY.

^I think this is the key factor. If 4680 structural pack are include in the MY before 3/22 that would mean a fairly major redesign within 2 years which is a much faster rate of change than any of their other vehicles. However, it's the one they need to scale the fastest, so it's necessary.

I do wonder how quickly, after the Austin and Berlin ramps, they will redesign the M3 since it's also a high volume vehicle. It seems logical that they would at least transition to front and rear casting to improve production cost and time but with all of their other cars in the backlog (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster) I have no idea when they plan to update the M3 production line.

 

[tangible1]

^I think this is the key factor. If 4680 structural pack are include in the MY before 3/22 that would mean a fairly major redesign within 2 years which is a much faster rate of change than any of their other vehicles. However, it's the one they need to scale the fastest, so it's necessary.

I do wonder how quickly, after the Austin and Berlin ramps, they will redesign the M3 since it's also a high volume vehicle. It seems logical that they would at least transition to front and rear casting to improve production cost and time but with all of their other cars in the backlog (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster) I have no idea when they plan to update the M3 production line.

The MY front casting may be a possible fit for the M3, but the rear casting might be very different than the M3 rear structure.
Either way, it's likely they're both different enough from the MY to require all new dies.
Tesla however has shown it's not holding back from investment.
Dice roll !!

 

[PNWLeccy]

The MY front casting may be a possible fit for the M3, but the rear casting might be very different than the M3 rear structure.
Either way, it's likely they're both different enough from the MY to require all new dies.
Tesla however has shown it's not holding back from investment.
Dice roll !!

I doubt the MY Gigapress castings will work for M3, so I think they are just focusing on delivering the Cybertruck next and then perhaps moving forward with castings for M3 afterwards.

I think reducing production costs of the M3 via casting before the cybertruck is probably the smarter move but I'm sure Tesla is feeling the market pressure to deliver on the Cybertruck ASAP.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

Structural battery packs with 4680s are extremely unlikely to make their way into 2022 cars. The tooling alone will take time to implement m. With Tesla more concerned on just getting vehicles ramped out of Texas and Berlin it’s doubtful that the new cells will come before these factories are operating at peek level. I would expect the 4860’s to come only after they have made a few production runs out of both for a sustained period of time. If you are holding out to order a Tesla because you are waiting on the 500 mile range than you will be waiting for at least 2 more years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the first instance of the new cells weren’t debuted until the CyberTruck- which is only because that vehicle is dependent on them.

 

[tangible1]

Structural battery packs with 4680s are extremely unlikely to make their way into 2022 cars. The tooling alone will take time to implement m. With Tesla more concerned on just getting vehicles ramped out of Texas and Berlin it’s doubtful that the new cells will come before these factories are operating at peek level. I would expect the 4860’s to come only after they have made a few production runs out of both for a sustained period of time. If you are holding out to order a Tesla because you are waiting on the 500 mile range than you will be waiting for at least 2 more years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the first instance of the new cells weren’t debuted until the CyberTruck- which is only because that vehicle is dependent on them.

I'm less interested in 500 mile range, since I don't expect that before real market competition arrives. It's a couple years off before any volume from competitors comes.
I'm more interested in WEIGHT REDUCTION, which is what MEGACASTS deliver to the MY. Lots of steel replaced with aluminum.
Even with 2170 battery packs, 200lbs weight savings is estimated. With 4680 batteries, Elon claims 10%, or 440lb weight reduction.
Weight buys range, weight buys performance, weight buys handling characteristics.
I think Tesla will solve the 4680 manufacturing issues by Q1 22.
No one really knows when, but there's a TON of pressure to get it done. CT, Semi, and who knows what other products depend on it, and MY cost+mfr process savings depends on it.
Tesla is finishing building not one, but TWO GigaFactories with processes and equipment that depends on it.
Yeah, there's some pressure in the system at Tesla.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

The Megacasts may give you a WEIGHT reduction . . .


. . . but they will also give you a WAIT increase

 

[tangible1]

The Megacasts may give you a WEIGHT reduction . . .


. . . but they will also give you a WAIT increase

Since the WAIT is already upon us all, the WEIGHT only matters to those who recognize it's value.

 

[SkeetShooter]

I was under the impression that structural battery pack design and implementation was being set up in Giga Texas and Berlin. Elon said it was a priority to get MY production started in those factories, and the recent media/social releases around both front and rear casting as well as structural designs would mean that at the very least in 2022 MY's coming from either of those two factories will have two of the three big improvements that were alluded to.

1. Front and Rear Castings in 2022 MY's
2. Structural Battery pack in 2022 MY's
3. 4680 Batteries included in 2022 MY's

My inclination is that even if 4680 isnt ready for prime-time, the assembly lines are being created so that Point 1 and 2 are standard manufacturing tooling processes. It makes no sense for them to build these factories where they would have to switch tooling assemblies and shut down so that they can later implement the new castings or structural battery pack.

They showed that 2170's could be put into the structural battery pack in the event that 4680's were not ready.

So that being said. I think its more than likely that on the conservative side, Q1 MY's produced in Austin will have both structural battery packs and front and rear castings, but likely no 4680's.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

It makes no sense for them to build these factories where they would have to switch tooling assemblies and shut down so that they can later implement the new castings or structural battery pack.

Fair point, but then again if you order a Y now, it'll be April before you get it, and a 3 will arrive allegedly in December, so maybe the top priority is just getting them out of the door

 

[DanDi58]

Fair point, but then again if you order a Y now, it'll be April before you get it, and a 3 will arrive allegedly in December, so maybe the top priority is just getting them out of the door

Yes, I would think that if the choice was: 1-start cranking out MY's with the current battery architecture or 2-wait until the new battery architecture is ready for full production, they would go with #1. At this point, we don't even know if they have done any sort of durability testing with the new architecture. Or if they even plan to.

 

[tangible1]

I was under the impression that structural battery pack design and implementation was being set up in Giga Texas and Berlin. Elon said it was a priority to get MY production started in those factories, and the recent media/social releases around both front and rear casting as well as structural designs would mean that at the very least in 2022 MY's coming from either of those two factories will have two of the three big improvements that were alluded to.

1. Front and Rear Castings in 2022 MY's
2. Structural Battery pack in 2022 MY's
3. 4680 Batteries included in 2022 MY's

My inclination is that even if 4680 isnt ready for prime-time, the assembly lines are being created so that Point 1 and 2 are standard manufacturing tooling processes. It makes no sense for them to build these factories where they would have to switch tooling assemblies and shut down so that they can later implement the new castings or structural battery pack.

They showed that 2170's could be put into the structural battery pack in the event that 4680's were not ready.

So that being said. I think its more than likely that on the conservative side, Q1 MY's produced in Austin will have both structural battery packs and front and rear castings, but likely no 4680's.

From the photos of packs and company descriptions, it does not appear that 2170 battery packs are structural. Consequently, chassis assembly will be slightly different for each.
That said, the difference will be relatively minor and robots included/excluded from the line. This can be accomodated easily in Austin / Berlin (space available). Not so much Fremont.

Specifically, the chassis for non-structural battery packs requires a floor panel. This was explained in Berlin.
The structural pack IS the floor panel. So this is two positions in the assembly line, one for each. Skip one or the other depending on the chassis build.
The second change is more challenging. Robots currently install seating AFTER chassis assembly, as a separate operation. With a structural pack, the seating is PART OF that pack.
So again, you've got two different robot assembly cells, plus two different seating assembly cells.
It all sounds simple but it's NOT.

Both Austin and Berlin were designed with the assumption that 4680 batteries would be forthcoming.
Well, it's been over a YEAR since 'battery day' and they ain't 'soup' yet.
Witness the Austin factory - steel for the cathode plant was delivered a month ago. It's still sitting on the ground. No need until battery processes are good to go.

Tesla will not introduce a '2022 MY' until 4680 batteries are manufacturable at scale.
Until then, a "v1.5" will be delivered, using non-structural 2170 packs. That plan is clearly evident.
But even these will weigh approx 200lbs less than the current MY v1.0, by using front + rear megacasts to increase assembly speed and decrease weight (reduced steel content).

I'm personally good with a 2170-based MY v1.5 as I don't think 4680 'engineering issues' will be solved with the necessary factory equipment changes, until maybe Q2 2022 at best.
I don't do road trips, and that's the situation where 4680 batteries will make a difference. Charging time. It matters then. But not for daily driving out to 200 miles round trip.

BTW, there are stacks and stacks of castings sitting in the lots at Fremont. Look at the drone footage available.
What this means is that Fremont is not yet building MY v1.5 - the castings piles are growing, not shrinking.

Tesla has tremendous incentive to reduce costs and increase production volume. The v1.5 build is the way it will get done in the near term.

 

[SkeetShooter]

Yes, I would think that if the choice was: 1-start cranking out MY's with the current battery architecture or 2-wait until the new battery architecture is ready for full production, they would go with #1. At this point, we don't even know if they have done any sort of durability testing with the new architecture. Or if they even plan to.

Fremont is going to continue to produce the bulk of the MY's without the structural pack through EOY. My order was placed a few weeks ago, and initially it said April was the time when I'd expect delivery, but my timeline shrunk back to Feb 18th-March 18th? No clue if that is just to make me feel good when they actually push it out to April (which I realize is then Q2 FY22)

From the photos of packs and company descriptions, it does not appear that 2170 battery packs are structural. Consequently, chassis assembly will be slightly different for each.
That said, the difference will be relatively minor and robots included/excluded from the line. This can be accomodated easily in Austin / Berlin (space available). Not so much Fremont.

Specifically, the chassis for non-structural battery packs requires a floor panel. This was explained in Berlin.
The structural pack IS the floor panel. So this is two positions in the assembly line, one for each. Skip one or the other depending on the chassis build.
The second change is more challenging. Robots currently install seating AFTER chassis assembly, as a separate operation. With a structural pack, the seating is PART OF that pack.
So again, you've got two different robot assembly cells, plus two different seating assembly cells.
It all sounds simple but it's NOT.

Both Austin and Berlin were designed with the assumption that 4680 batteries would be forthcoming.
Well, it's been over a YEAR since 'battery day' and they ain't 'soup' yet.
Witness the Austin factory - steel for the cathode plant was delivered a month ago. It's still sitting on the ground. No need until battery processes are good to go.

Tesla will not introduce a '2022 MY' until 4680 batteries are manufacturable at scale.
Until then, a "v1.5" will be delivered, using non-structural 2170 packs. That plan is clearly evident.
But even these will weigh approx 200lbs less than the current MY v1.0, by using front + rear megacasts to increase assembly speed and decrease weight (reduced steel content).

I'm personally good with a 2170-based MY v1.5 as I don't think 4680 'engineering issues' will be solved with the necessary factory equipment changes, until maybe Q2 2022 at best.
I don't do road trips, and that's the situation where 4680 batteries will make a difference. Charging time. It matters then. But not for daily driving out to 200 miles round trip.

BTW, there are stacks and stacks of castings sitting in the lots at Fremont. Look at the drone footage available.
What this means is that Fremont is not yet building MY v1.5 - the castings piles are growing, not shrinking.

Tesla has tremendous incentive to reduce costs and increase production volume. The v1.5 build is the way it will get done in the near term.

I read an article where they quoted someone (I can't recall who) but they stated that they could use the structural packs with 2170's should 4680's not be ready for prime-time when Austin/Berlin comes online.

Do I care if I get 4680's when my Y comes in... Yes... But its not like its going to be a game changer. It just makes everything more efficient in general, and possibly, who knows maybe a performance bump. Personally, and I know this is just a stupid thing, but I really do want my MY to be produced in Austin. Between the brand new assembly line, high-performance paint booths, and closer proximity to me (I'm in CT) its something I would like.

I am just happy to have this vehicle, regardless of the weight time. Its a transitional vehicle for me, determining if I'm truly ready for EV. I have my reservations in for CyberTruck, F150 Lightning, and Rivian R1T, and the ultimate goal is to go to one of those when my order comes in for that. Right now F150 is in 3rd place, and its a tie between Rivian and CT, with maybe CT slightly edging out Rivian due to price (although with recent events, who knows!)

 

[tangible1]

Fremont is going to continue to produce the bulk of the MY's without the structural pack through EOY. My order was placed a few weeks ago, and initially it said April was the time when I'd expect delivery, but my timeline shrunk back to Feb 18th-March 18th? No clue if that is just to make me feel good when they actually push it out to April (which I realize is then Q2 FY22)


I read an article where they quoted someone (I can't recall who) but they stated that they could use the structural packs with 2170's should 4680's not be ready for prime-time when Austin/Berlin comes online.

Do I care if I get 4680's when my Y comes in... Yes... But its not like its going to be a game changer. It just makes everything more efficient in general, and possibly, who knows maybe a performance bump. Personally, and I know this is just a stupid thing, but I really do want my MY to be produced in Austin. Between the brand new assembly line, high-performance paint booths, and closer proximity to me (I'm in CT) its something I would like.

I am just happy to have this vehicle, regardless of the weight time. Its a transitional vehicle for me, determining if I'm truly ready for EV. I have my reservations in for CyberTruck, F150 Lightning, and Rivian R1T, and the ultimate goal is to go to one of those when my order comes in for that. Right now F150 is in 3rd place, and its a tie between Rivian and CT, with maybe CT slightly edging out Rivian due to price (although with recent events, who knows!)

Tesla is not making a structural 2170 battery pack. The Berlin exposition was very clear on that.
While I agree that it would be possible, even probable, no information has been available that presents the 2170 as qualified in a structural pack.
There are many engineering issues and physical testing issues to get that qualified. No evidence that I've seen, and I've tried pretty hard. I'd like to be wrong.

Your EDD is almost useless as a delivery estimator. Witness the last 4 months - it's a mess.
It will be all over the map as Fremont finishes their Giga4.5 Sprung tent expansion, and as Austin gets going.
Austin is NOT gonna move on Elon's stated schedule. Too many variables.
Certainly it is Tesla's intention to use Austin as MY factory for Central and Eastern US, with Fremont for Western States MY and all NA for other models.
So it's possible you'd get a MY from Austin, but if Feb/Mar is what you're expecting, it's a dice roll. Don't count on it.

BTW, paint processes are also being improved at Fremont, along with the process improvements that are being built into Austin and Berlin.
Tesla doesn't stand still ANYWHERE. And the Megacasts (F+R) make chassis assembly more consistent, meaning better body panel gap consistencies.
So EVERYTHING they build is getting better. MODEL YEAR doesn't matter to them, unlike Legacy vehicle manufacturers.

 

[SkeetShooter]

I planned on April for my EDD anyhow and am really happy to hear that the Paint improvement process is coming to Fremont as well!! As stated above, Its a transitional vehicle for me. I was hoping that by next year that CT would be ready, but given all the news to the contrary and being a reservation holder in the 80K area, I figured it would be better to hedge my bets and get a MY for now. I have two friends with MY's, one who is a fanboy and the other who said before he bought it he thought it was the dumbest purchase his wife ever made him get... The guy who originally hated it has become a fanboy, and the fanboy still flies his flag high lol.

 

[tangible1]

I planned on April for my EDD anyhow and am really happy to hear that the Paint improvement process is coming to Fremont as well!! As stated above, Its a transitional vehicle for me. I was hoping that by next year that CT would be ready, but given all the news to the contrary and being a reservation holder in the 80K area, I figured it would be better to hedge my bets and get a MY for now. I have two friends with MY's, one who is a fanboy and the other who said before he bought it he thought it was the dumbest purchase his wife ever made him get... The guy who originally hated it has become a fanboy, and the fanboy still flies his flag high lol.

Smart to hedge the CT, which unless you're kinda early on the 1MM unit pre-order list won't be be available until 2024.
The F-150 Lightning has a similar problem, since Ford is only building 40K units over the next year and has over 300K pre-orders. The price tag, specs, and features are attractive.
The Rivian will be the earliest available, looks interesting but has a high price tag (like Hummer and others, targets the low volume/high price market).
All of them are very heavy. None have a charging infrastructure anywhere near to what Tesla does already.

A MY for me is also a 'transition' as I have another vehicle. I'm glad I resisted the urge to trade it.
However, since the Government (Fed and State) wants to GIVE ME MONEY to purchase one, and because I have several friends who own and find them very practical, I'm in.
There's nothing in an ICE in an equivalent price range that holds any interest, and new SUV's are stupid money.
Also, gasoline in SoCAL is approaching $5.00 a gallon, no relief in sight, and my friends' electricity bills only went up $30/month despite driving a lot. I spend 300/mo on gas.
So it seems to make sense and can be dumped pretty easily if it goes sideways.

 

[rickybobbee]

I know tesla is trying to produce the 4680 as soon as possible but do you think they put the pedal to the metal even more now that lucid has a 500 mile car out?

 

[tangible1]

I know tesla is trying to produce the 4680 as soon as possible but do you think they put the pedal to the metal even more now that lucid has a 500 mile car out?

I do not. The 4680 'engineering issues' will take the time it takes.
And once solved, the manufacturing equipment changes will also take time.
However:
Lucid hasn't the ability to manufacture anything in volume. By the time they can, it won't matter to Tesla.
They can't generate enough pressure on Tesla to make a difference, and Tesla can adjust range capabilities, if necessary, relatively easily once 4680 gets to scale.

 

[DanDi58]

I know tesla is trying to produce the 4680 as soon as possible but do you think they put the pedal to the metal even more now that lucid has a 500 mile car out?

Well, to get the 500 mile range you have to pay at least $139k, so it's not like they are a competitor for the MY or M3. And the first one they are making, the Air Dream Edition, is a 'limited edition' model and reservations are currently closed. And it starts at $169k. I don't believe they have produced/delivered one yet.

 

[cusetownusa]

Gali has some inside info on 4680 cells (50 seconds in)

 

[cusetownusa]

Sounds like they will be starting right away with the 4680s in Texas. Volume and ramp speed is the big unknown.

I wouldn’t want to wait much longer than I already need to for my Y but having a vehicle out of Texas that weighs 400lbs less even if the same range, is appealing.