When will Tesla answer all of our questions about the X - Official launch speculation

[dirkhh]

So the irony has gone full circle now? The idea they weren't unveiling the X due to the Osborne effect along with overstimulating the 35k reservation backlog is now a possible 6%-95% cancellation rate before we've seen the car. How quickly the tides have turned. :wink:

I think those two statements are not correlated. Some reservation holders may have cancelled or may be holding back on clicking the confirmation button because of expectations that weren't met.
But that has nothing to do with the question whether a fully announced / revealed Model X would have a negative impact on Model S sales.

The first one has to do with expectations of existing reservation holders. And it has no immediate revenue impact as they simply can walk down the line of reservations and invite the next group to configure. Sure, they'll go through their backlog more quickly, but assuming that the Model X will be successful in the market that isn't that big of an issue.
The second one has to do with expectations of new customers choosing between Model S and Model X. Thereby choosing between a car that would create Tesla revenues in Q4'15 vs. one that will create Tesla revenues in Q2'16 (at the earliest).

 

[ZachShahan]

So the irony has gone full circle now? The idea they weren't unveiling the X due to the Osborne effect along with overstimulating the 35k reservation backlog is now a possible 6%-95% cancellation rate before we've seen the car. How quickly the tides have turned. :wink:

Haha. Inside the world of the TMC forum.

No reality distortion here whatsoever. Thanks goodness Model X decisions aren't made via the consensus of Tesla enthusiasts.

 

[engle]

... The idea they weren't unveiling the X due to the Osborne effect along with overstimulating the 35k reservation backlog ...

Yesterday at the factory store, when I started asking X questions, I was told flat out by a senior product specialist that "Information on the Model X is on 'lock down'. We haven't been told anything. We're selling Model S vehicles"." I asked them: "What do you say to people who walk in with a Model X Sig reservation that have been asked to configure and have questions?" The response was: "I tell them to call the special inside sales phone number they've been given. We have an internal dedicated team supporting Model X customers".

Would anyone care to share that number here or PM me? :biggrin: I have a list of 10 questions to email them, so I can configure immediately upon invitation.

Later I asked if they've seen any "Osborne effect" and they said no, we're selling Model S vehicles here just like we normally do.

IMHO, Tesla has and is going to great lengths to prevent the Osborne effect in Q4. Model S ordered today are for November Delivery. That may change to December delivery by 9/29 when the Model X will be extensively publicized through the media. IMHO, Tesla wants all the people who ordered Model S thru 9/22 to be non-refundable come 9/29's announcement so none can switch to the back of the X line without a financial penalty.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yesterday at the factory store, when I started asking X questions, I was told flat out by a senior product specialist that "Information on the Model X is on 'lock down'. We haven't been told anything. We're selling Model S vehicles.". I asked them: "What do you say to people who walk in with a Model X Sig reservation that have been asked to configure and have questions?" The response was: "I tell them to call the special inside sales phone number they've been given. We have an internal dedicated team supporting Model X customers".

This speculation from a news article may be useless, but some people believe that Tesla is deliberately withholding information on Model X in order to generate publicity and interest:

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_28842354/excitement-questions-mount-tesla-model-x-release

Mark Waxman, chief marketing officer for consultant CBIZ in San Jose, said Tesla is one of the few companies to create "an 'aura of exclusivity' which makes a waiting list acceptable." Managed correctly, he added, it builds excitement.

Waxman said the bigger challenge may be keeping the enthusiasm high after the initial launch. But he said Tesla has done an excellent job staying in the news. "I expect to be seeing frequent updates and lots of stories about the Model X post-launch," said Waxman, who advises venture-backed companies.

The question is whether the lack of information is the result of "correct management" or simply an unfortunate byproduct of delays and "taking no chances" with Model S delivery flow.

Some prospective owners have felt left out of the process, citing scant information from Tesla despite their sizable deposits.

A Tesla spokeswoman did not respond to questions about wait times and customer concerns.


Spokeswoman Alexis Georgeson said the company sent emails to Signature reservation holders with a link allowing them to configure their car. Tesla has not disclosed now many Signature reservations it has taken, but the company has approximately 20,000 orders for the base Model X, she said.

The unfortunate reality for customers is that Tesla is the only game in town with a long-range EV. They can afford to do whatever they want, as there is no competition.

 

[simplejack]

They can do whatever they want as long as the customer ONLY wants a BEV. For those of us that value BEV, but not to the point of ruling out ICE or hybrid vehicles, there is a lot of quality competition in the 80-100k luxury SUV/CUV market. It's incredibly short cited of Tesla to lose these customers by "launching" the X in a covert fashion.

 

[Krugerrand]

They can do whatever they want as long as the customer ONLY wants a BEV. For those of us that value BEV, but not to the point of ruling out ICE or hybrid vehicles, there is a lot of quality competition in the 80-100k luxury SUV/CUV market. It's incredibly short cited of Tesla to lose these customers by "launching" the X in a covert fashion.

They can do whatever they want regardless of any outcome you can imagine. It's part of their current business plan and I have no doubt whatsoever that they (he?) have thought long and hard. This is not a company that thinks short term and they've shown a serious proclivity for being long-sighted; Supercharger Network, Gigafactory, Model 3, PowerWall/Pack are the biggies, but there's dozens of examples of little things that they've done that clearly show they were thinking wayyyyyyyy ahead.

Has *this* been a mistake? *shrug* Don't know and don't think it'll matter in the scheme of things anyway, but I do know it wasn't a short-sighted decision.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I get the feeling this entire fiasco is due to rushing to meet said target dates. My impression is that the car is not ready (or the company is not ready to deliver the car) - at least the way they intended to.

Seems like the Sep 29 deliveries are just a desperate attempt to say that they started deliveries as promised (deliveries to begin late q3).

Last I know from reading these threads, Bonnie still doesn't know when she will get her car. Nor anyone seems to know when we will know all about the car.

My pet theory (entirely speculative) is that some supplier is trying to take Tesla for a ride, essentially blackmailing/exploiting Tesla's circumstances. Tesla is trying not to budge.

Not really. Tesla has been consistent for many months that Model X would be revealed during the first deliveries. It's nothing new.

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One significant problem with Tesla launching a car like anyone else is that they don't just produce vehicles for dealer stock and then send them out. They need to build cars to customer specs from the beginning so they're going to need to get those specs. Even if the first cars were marketing cars, they would still need to be working on the next orders even as the first cars were being completed. Model X is going to be different than Model S; I think they're going to be able to ramp production faster this time.

The end result is this cluster-**** of a launch.

Well, if Tesla could show us a prototype 2-3 years ago why can't they show us a finished car with every option and upgrade during a launch event? Are you suggesting Tesla cannot build a one-off car to show it off at a show? None of the concept cars at Frankfurt are production cars - they are one-offs - yet they seem to be able to make those just fine. It's fairly obvious that Tesla is not interested in hyping this launch of one of Tesla's most anticipated products. We have to ask ourselves why? It's an intentional choice.

- - - Updated - - -

I unfortunately am coming to the same conclusion (or should I say, best guess), except for your last statement. I doubt a supplier is blackmailing/exploiting them. I think it's likely the rumor is true that supply constraints on the second row are likely to blame. And perhaps there was a more complicated design that folds, bends, shrinks, beams up to the enterprise that Tesla has now decided to forgo, at least for now. This is the only reason I can imagine why Tesla wouldn't do a formal announcement, show off the car, give us all the specs, and start collecting additional deposits. They need to be able to say "we started shipping on 9/29". It's unfortunate that Tesla has found themselves in this position.

... but I remain hopeful that Tesla pulls a rabbit out of their proverbial hat.

How hard is it for Tesla to secure a reliable supply of seats? My god, every car manufacturer does this without any hiccups. You'd think Tesla was reinventing the upholstery manufacturing business or something. What on earth is Tesla doing wrong that they can't get the simple things that every other vehicle manufacturer can get without any problems? I'm tired of hearing excuses from Musk and Tesla. First it was the falcon doors, then it was the "sculptural work of art" 2nd row seats that Elon said were incredibly difficult to get right. Then there is his statement that the Model X is the most difficult car in the world to build.

When did Tesla lose focus like this? Make the car more straightforward so that it can actually be built on time. Then iterate the car over time to introduce those amazing "wants" that didn't make the final cut. I'm smelling something fishy, sorry to say.

 

[MrBoylan]

...The response was: "I tell them to call the special inside sales phone number they've been given. We have an internal dedicated team supporting Model X customers".

Would anyone care to share that number here or PM me? :biggrin:

I sent my Model X questions to [email protected] and got a call back from an inside sales rep within a couple of hours. The call-back number he left on my voice mail was 650-681-5100 - the main sales phone number in Fremont (same number posted on their web site). I would imagine they will check your Model X reservation number before getting into much detail, and even then, answers are limited ("No sir, the 2nd row seats do not fold and there are currently no plans for an alternate second row seat."). The woman I spoke with did say they learn about many of these issues (Design Studio shots, etc.) after they're leaked here on the forum.

It's possible they know more this week than they did last week, but much more likely they either have *NOT* been told any of the "secrets" about the Model X or have been asked not to divulge any details that have not yet been publicized.

The good news is that September 29th is only 9 days away.

 

[SBenson]

The good news is that September 29th is only 9 days away.

Do you know *for sure* that on Sep 29 the car will be revealed?

 

[MrBoylan]

...How hard is it for Tesla to secure a reliable supply of seats? My god, every car manufacturer does this without any hiccups. You'd think Tesla was reinventing the upholstery manufacturing business or something. What on earth is Tesla doing wrong that they can't get the simple things that every other vehicle manufacturer can get without any problems? I'm tired of hearing excuses from Musk and Tesla. First it was the falcon doors, then it was the "sculptural work of art" 2nd row seats that Elon said were incredibly difficult to get right. Then there is his statement that the Model X is the most difficult car in the world to build.

So far, all we have seen of the production seats are some static renders (or photos, kind of hard to tell for sure). And they do look pretty different from any seats I've seen before. Are they better than anything else out there? Maybe. We'll know more in 9 days. Being different is hard.

When did Tesla lose focus like this? Make the car more straightforward so that it can actually be built on time. Then iterate the car over time to introduce those amazing "wants" that didn't make the final cut. I'm smelling something fishy, sorry to say.

Making the car "more straightforward" would mean making the car something other than a Tesla. The Model S was and is ground-breaking in many ways: massive range, superior handling, flush-mount disappearing door handles, 17" touch panel controls. Should they have launched the Model S with knobs and buttons, or a 13-inch screen because it was easier? Should they have used regular door handles? I don't think so. The Model X has to be awesome right out of the gate so they can show just how different - how much better - a car (or an SUV/CUV) can be.

Yes, falcon wing doors and magic seats are hard, particularly when you're a perfectionist like Musk. But Tesla is not in the game to be "good enough," they're in it to be the best.

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Do you know *for sure* that on Sep 29 the car will be revealed?

Based on past events, it is extremely likely. Nothing is "for sure" except death and taxes... and that my taxes will be $7500 lower next year.

 

[hpham007]

The Model X has to be awesome right out of the gate so they can show just how different - how much better - a car (or an SUV/CUV) can be.

Yes, falcon wing doors and magic seats are hard, particularly when you're a perfectionist like Musk. But Tesla is not in the game to be "good enough," they're in it to be the best.

People make the mistake and assume that if something is "different", it's innovative. Different means different, not by default better or worse. Tesla definitely made the X different with the Falcon doors and rear seats that do not fold. Is it better or innovative? I guess we'll soon find out..

:smile:

 

[SBenson]

Based on past events, it is extremely likely. Nothing is "for sure" except death and taxes... and that my taxes will be $7500 lower next year.

I meant to ask if anyone from Tesla has said that the car will be revealed on 29th.

I guess the answer is still no.

 

[NigelM]

Yesterday at the factory store, when I started asking X questions, I was told flat out by a senior product specialist that "Information on the Model X is on 'lock down'. We haven't been told anything. We're selling Model S vehicles"." I asked them: "What do you say to people who walk in with a Model X Sig reservation that have been asked to configure and have questions?" The response was: "I tell them to call the special inside sales phone number they've been given. We have an internal dedicated team supporting Model X customers".

Would anyone care to share that number here or PM me? :biggrin: I have a list of 10 questions to email them, so I can configure immediately upon invitation.

With all respect, if anyone were to publish that here it would immediately be swamped and those of us trying to configure now would never get our answers.

 

[MrBoylan]

No mistake made. I understand the difference between "different" (like the AMC Pacer with its Wankel rotary engine - hard to be more different than that) and innovative. Tesla innovates. They showed it with the Model S and they're showing it again with the Model X. We shall see, indeed.

 

[engle]

With all respect, if anyone were to publish that here it would immediately be swamped and those of us trying to configure now would never get our answers.

Hi Nigel,

That's why I added the phrase "or PM me".

Best of luck with your Sig config!

Thanks,
Russ

PS. I have back channels I could try, since one of my best friends here in Fremont is good friends with a couple of the C-levels (not Elon). But I'd rather go through normal channels to try to get the information I need, first. I hope that Tesla will reveal everything, photos from all angles, all the "special features", all the specs, etc., etc. on 9/29 -- but I'm not counting on it. If they don't even invite customers like Ken and Bonnie to the Founder X Delivery Factory Event to see the X (did they invite you?), then I don't expect many additional details to come out of it. Hopefully, I'll be proven wrong, and Elon will at least show all the X "secrets" to the assembled media on 9/29 and give them test rides or drives.

 

[eloder]

They can do whatever they want as long as the customer ONLY wants a BEV. For those of us that value BEV, but not to the point of ruling out ICE or hybrid vehicles, there is a lot of quality competition in the 80-100k luxury SUV/CUV market. It's incredibly short cited of Tesla to lose these customers by "launching" the X in a covert fashion.

My own company doesn't fight for customers. The reason? Our internal statistics show extremely high rates of leaving customers returning within a short period of time, as we're expensive but very high quality in our field.

Not only does Tesla know that they need to keep MS cashflow steady for now, but they also realize that the people who leave and truly never come back is likely a very tiny number right now. Even if people feel truly slighted by the lack of XYZ feature on the MX, or by the lack of communication, they can afford to stick to their long-term vision.

I'd like to know info more than anyone, but I won't be expecting good hard detailed info until at least 2-4 weeks after the founder deliveries begin.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I meant to ask if anyone from Tesla has said that the car will be revealed on 29th.

I guess the answer is still no.

I'd like to know info more than anyone, but I won't be expecting good hard detailed info until at least 2-4 weeks after the founder deliveries begin.

I expect the forum to explode in fury if Tesla tweets that Model X has been "delivered", but that no other details are available. My estimation is that the probability of this happening is quite high. The company likely does not want to take any risk, however small, of damaging Model S sales, probably because they are struggling to meet shareholder guidance numbers for total delivery in 2015.

 

[ecarfan]

I expect the forum to explode in fury if Tesla tweets that Model X has been "delivered", but that no other details are available.

While that could happen, I doubt it would have a significant negative impact on Model S or X sales. Demand is very strong, and Tesla has to build thousands of X's to work through the reservation backlog. That is going to take months.
Personally I do expect an X reveal event at or very close to the Founders delivery date, and I think more details will appear on the website at that time. Of course I could be wrong. But the world will keep spinning, and Tesla will keep growing.

 

[FlasherZ]

No mistake made. I understand the difference between "different" (like the AMC Pacer with its Wankel rotary engine - hard to be more different than that) and innovative. Tesla innovates. They showed it with the Model S and they're showing it again with the Model X. We shall see, indeed.

Note that the Pacer never shipped with the Wankel. Instead, AMC shoved their straight-6 into the car (I believe the 258 ci, if I remember right, which was one hell of a workhorse). At the last minute, they were forced to do a redesign; if I recall correctly, it was based on a marketing concern of the engine's "feel" (engine noise and RPM), leaving Mazda as the only manufacturer to consider the rotary engine.

 

[GIdoc]

I hope most people here have seen this old video.

Inside the Tesla Model X - YouTube

Just looking at this old prototype, I think one of the better suprises will be to have those LED/touchscreen control on the steering wheel in the actual production model.