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When will we have a Basic Minimum Income?

When will we (The US) have a Basic Minimum income?

  • Never. Have you seen Elysium? Yeah... get ready.

    Votes: 76 53.9%
  • ~5 years

    Votes: 5 3.5%
  • ~10 years

    Votes: 6 4.3%
  • ~20 years

    Votes: 27 19.1%
  • ~40 years

    Votes: 17 12.1%
  • >100 years

    Votes: 10 7.1%

  • Total voters
    141
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Yes, but the masses will choose socialism because it's easy. No one wants to work for the future anymore. They want everything now. There are many great paying jobs in the country but they require a science, math or engineering degree. People don't want to do the hard work required to get those jobs. They'd rather work at Starbucks and get behind a political movement that is pushing for $20 an hour minimum wage.

All these disenfranchised young people who are complaining about the 1% went to college and got Art History, Communications, Journalism and psychology degrees because they were the path of least resistance. Now they feel the government and corporate America and "the rich" are to blame.

We'll have jobs for a long time in this country, even with automation. People just need to be willing to work hard to have the skills needed to attain those jobs. The people who do work hard should not be expected to pay for the ones who don't.
Wow. Those are some broad generalizations. "No one" and "All these" are bad choices of terms because it allows people to compartmentalize entire groups and dismiss them easily. For instance, I could say something like "every time I read a comment like this, I know the user is going to be from Florida." Do you see how unfair that is? :)

"No one wants to work for the future" and get a "science, math, or engineering degree" is wrong. Obviously even one person doing this would prove it wrong due to the phrasing. But the implied trend is also wrong. STEM degree enrollment is UP year over year as a percentage of overall enrollment.
 
So you're saying that anyone who wants to be an engineer can become an engineer?

I guess we went to different engineering universities. Lots of people flunked out, because they weren't smart enough and couldn't handle the curriculum. There are some things that can be learned, while others that can not be learned.

You could give me a paintbrush, but I'd never be an artist. No matter how much training I went through.


ETA: And even if your theory is true, anyone can become an engineer. What would the US do with 300 million engineers in the future? UBI (at least the way I see it), is not meant for today when automation is at a 10:1 scale (there's a link about a dozen pages back, 1 robot replaces 10 people). It's more about when we hit the 1000:1 scale, then what? You still need as many engineers as you do today?

Poppycock. There are plenty of people that have "multiple skills" or the ability to learn new skills. You are equating a skill that requires creativity (art) with one that simply doesn't require that much creativity, but a lot more drudge work in training to reach the end point.

If we take your reasoning to it's logical endpoint, you are arguing that all of society has an extremely limited and narrow ability to learn and be trained for "high paying" jobs.

I've met TONS of Engineers that were easily smart enough to be Doctors, but decided they didn't want to go through the education process (which is substantially longer). Similarly, I have met a lot of people that are in dead end jobs because, simply, they didn't want to apply themselves in High School. Not that they didn't have opportunities, but simply put, they were LAZY.
 
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You are equating a skill that requires creativity (art) with one that simply doesn't require that much creativity, but a lot more drudge work in training to reach the end point.
I get what you're saying (even though I don't agree with it) but your phrasing is wrong. Engineering does require creativity too, just a different kind.

What if I said surgeon? Would that be better? I don't have the hand/eye coordination to be a surgeon. What if the future was all surgeons, and every other profession was taken over by export and robots. Then what?

Insert any profession you want, I just threw one out there. But you knew that, and instead of making a valid argument, you're making a strawman argument.

What if I went the other way around, would an artist be able to become an engineer? I know plenty of artists who wouldn't. But that also doesn't mean that none of them wouldn't.

If we take your reasoning to it's logical endpoint, you are arguing that all of society has an extremely limited and narrow ability to learn and be trained for "high paying" jobs.
100% yes. I don't believe that ALL of society can be trained to perform high paying jobs. A subset? Sure. but not everyone.

I've met TONS of Engineers that were easily smart enough to be Doctors, but decided they didn't want to go through the education process (which is substantially longer). Similarly, I have met a lot of people that are in dead end jobs because, simply, they didn't want to apply themselves in High School. Not that they didn't have opportunities, but simply put, they were LAZY.
And I've met TONS of engineers that would fail at being doctors. And I've met lots of people that are in dead end jobs, and it had nothing to do with their laziness levels.

It's not about who you or I know, that's irrelevant. MikeQ's point is that everyone can have a job when automation takes over. My point is that, no, not everyone can if the only jobs left are of a certain caliber. There are skills that can not be learned.
 
I get what you're saying (even though I don't agree with it) but your phrasing is wrong. Engineering does require creativity too, just a different kind.

What if I said surgeon? Would that be better? I don't have the hand/eye coordination to be a surgeon. What if the future was all surgeons, and every other profession was taken over by export and robots. Then what?

Insert any profession you want, I just threw one out there. But you knew that, and instead of making a valid argument, you're making a strawman argument.

What if I went the other way around, would an artist be able to become an engineer? I know plenty of artists who wouldn't. But that also doesn't mean that none of them wouldn't.


100% yes. I don't believe that ALL of society can be trained to perform high paying jobs. A subset? Sure. but not everyone.


And I've met TONS of engineers that would fail at being doctors. And I've met lots of people that are in dead end jobs, and it had nothing to do with their laziness levels.

It's not about who you or I know, that's irrelevant. MikeQ's point is that everyone can have a job when automation takes over. My point is that, no, not everyone can if the only jobs left are of a certain caliber. There are skills that can not be learned.

My point is there are a lot of jobs out there and automation will create more. They just won't be menial jobs. They will be high skilled jobs. No, not everyone can get a science, engineering, math, etc... degree but there are a lot of people who could that won't even try.

There was a time when all you needed to do was be able to pick crops or handle a shovel. Those jobs disappeared for jobs that required you to operate machinery and be able to read. We're in the same place in history, the only difference is that now you need to understand how to write code, understand chemistry, biology, nanotech, etc...

A big part of the problem as to why people don't go into these fields is because our education system isn't preparing them or even promoting it as a possibility. A bigger part of the problem is parents. Parents spend more time indoctrinating their kids into sports programs than preparing them for the real world. My wife is a teacher and I don't know how many times a year she gets parents complaining that the classwork is interfering with their child's sports programs.

People are capable of a lot more than they think they are. They don't truly discover what they are capable of until they are pushed.

I'm an example of this. I had no direction in High School. Did poorly because I so no reason to put forth the effort. I had no vision of where I was going. I joined the Army and am a Gulf War Era veteran. The military pushed me harder than I thought possible and put a fire in me that changed the course of my life. After doing 4 years, I left the military and put myself through college with the help of the GI Bill. I earned a Computer Science Degree in 3 1/2 years. I was one of those kids in High School how was going nowhere fast. Had I not joined the military I have no doubt I would never have gone to college and probably would be a drain on the system.
 
So then what are you going to do with the people who can't get those degrees and there are no menial jobs left?

Just like the farmers, they'll learn to read. They have to learn enough of a skill to be useful. Just like it's always been. Right now, reading and operating a cash register will get you the most basic of jobs. Perhaps in the future it will mean learning to write some basic code. Doesn't require a computer science degree to setup advanced CNC machines. Might just require some basic scripting. It will however require more of an education than it does now.
 
My point is there are a lot of jobs out there and automation will create more.

I'd really like to believe that. But I do my best to keep my beliefs constrained by reality and that's simply not supported by the facts :(

what-can-labor-productivity-tell-us-chart3.png


The more insidious metric is the decoupling of wages and productivity....

1280px-US_productivity_and_real_wages.jpg


Income and means of consumption needs to be decoupled to an equal extent of the decoupling of wages and productivity or the economy will be increasingly constrained by a lack of sufficient consumption.
 
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Just like the farmers, they'll learn to read. They have to learn enough of a skill to be useful. Just like it's always been. Right now, reading and operating a cash register will get you the most basic of jobs. Perhaps in the future it will mean learning to write some basic code. Doesn't require a computer science degree to setup advanced CNC machines. Might just require some basic scripting. It will however require more of an education than it does now.
That's a fair counterargument, but it assumes that the rate of which robots take over human jobs will be slower than the rate at which the population grows.

If the rates are reversed, it no longer holds true. There would be 10 people lined up for a 1 menial job.
 
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That's a fair counterargument, but it assumes that the rate of which robots take over human jobs will be slower than the rate at which the population grows.

If the rates are reversed, it no longer holds true. There would be 10 people lined up for a 1 menial job.

This has to be the most common misperception of the labor market. It's a ratio not a finite number. More Consumers = More Jobs. The problem is that the ratio is changing. 100 years ago it was 9:10. 10 years ago it was 1:2. 10 years from now it could be 1:10. What happens when it's 1:100? 1:1000?

If there's 1 Job per 1000 consumers and consumption is coupled to employment we have a big problem :(\

That's the issue at the heart of this thread that doesn't appear to be addressed... as the ratio of Jobs:Consumers shifts the ratio of Employment:Income MUST follow or the economy cannot meet its full production potential. How do we maintain consumption as employment declines?
 
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Interesting article about Costa Rica which is top of tables in life expectancy, and social well being with a comparatively low GDP.
"Every few years the New Economics Foundation publishes the Happy Planet Index – a measure of progress that looks at life expectancy, wellbeing and equality rather than the narrow metric of GDP, and plots these measures against ecological impact. Costa Rica tops the list of countries every time. With a life expectancy of 79.1 years and levels of wellbeing in the top 7% of the world, Costa Rica matches many Scandinavian nations in these areas and neatly outperforms the United States. And it manages all of this with a GDP per capita of only $10,000 (£7,640), less than one fifth that of the US."

Want to avert the apocalypse? Take lessons from Costa Rica

The key is providing a rich set of social services and promoting equality. This means providing people with the basics of food, shelter, health care, etc. This is done through redistribution from high income people to low income people.
This bit is crucial:
"All of this turns the usual growth narrative on its head. Henry Wallich, a former member of the US Federal Reserve Board, once pointed out that “growth is a substitute for redistribution”. And it’s true: most politicians would rather try to rev up the GDP and hope it trickles down than raise taxes on the rich and redistribute income into social goods. But a new generation of thinkers is ready to flip Wallich’s quip around: if growth is a substitute for redistribution, then redistribution can be a substitute for growth. "

"How do they do it? Professors Martínez-Franzoni and Sánchez-Ancochea arguethat it’s all down to Costa Rica’s commitment to universalism: the principle that everyone – regardless of income – should have equal access to generous, high-quality social services as a basic right. A series of progressive governments started rolling out healthcare, education and social security in the 1940s and expanded these to the whole population from the 50s onward, after abolishing the military and freeing up more resources for social spending."

Interesting note on how they kept the US from "intervening" to prevent progressive idea from taking hold:
"Costa Rica wasn’t alone in this effort, of course. Progressive governments elsewhere in Latin America made similar moves, but in nearly every case the US violently intervened to stop them for fear that “communist” ideas might scupper American interests in the region. Costa Rica escaped this fate by outwardly claiming to be anti-communist and – horribly – allowing US-backed forces to use the country as a base in the contra war against Nicaragua."

"This is what ecologists call “de-growth”. This calls for redistributing existing resources and investing in social goods in order to render growth unnecessary. Decommoditising and universalising healthcare, education and even housing would be a step in the right direction. Another would be a universal basic income – perhaps funded by taxes on carbon, land, resource extraction and financial transactions."

The real benefit:
"The opposite of growth isn’t austerity, or depression, or voluntary poverty. It is sharing what we already have, so we won’t need to plunder the earth for more."
"Past a certain point, GDP gains us nothing when it comes to what really matters. In an age of climate change, where the pursuit of ever more GDP is actively dangerous, we need a different approach."
 
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They've got a real utopian society down there...and quite a growing poverty problem.

Also the New Economics Foundation sounds like a propaganda group for socialism.

7 Things to Know About Costa Rica’s Poverty Rate

In 2016, Costa Rica was named the happiest country in the world. But, while the country as a whole has enjoyed stability and a steadily growing economy in recent years, marginalized groups have been left behind.

Here are seven important facts about Costa Rica’s poverty rate that should not be overlooked:

  1. Costa Rica’s inequality rate has increased since 2000, a division that disproportionately affects indigenous and minority groups. Today, the country’s richest 20 percent receive an income 19 times higher than that of the poorest 20 percent.
  2. While, overall, Costa Rica’s poverty rate has dropped from 22.4 percent to 21.7 percent from 2014 to 2015, the country’s extreme poverty rate rose from 5.8 percent to 7.2 percent, the highest recorded rate in the last 60 years.
  3. While 19 percent of urban households live in poverty and 5.2 percent live in extreme poverty, 30.3 percent of rural households live in poverty and 10.6 percent in extreme poverty.
  4. Poor Costa Ricans have, on average, three years less schooling than their economically stable peers.
  5. In Costa Rica, 43.5 percent of poor households are headed by women.
  6. Since an inflation crisis in the ’80s and ’90s, the Costa Rican government has managed to boost the economy through international tourism and exports. These sectors benefit qualified workers, while unskilled workers, over-represented by indigenous and minority groups, see no change or a decrease in their salaries.
  7. Public assistance to poor families increased by 9.3 percent per household and 6.9 percent per person from 2014 to 2015.

Housing-1-1000x606.jpg
 
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They've got a real utopian society down there.

View attachment 252426
Hmm, that's thoughtful. Reply to a well written summary of an alternative governing philosophy by seeking out a picture that you think disproves. Well, I'll debate that!

In our growth oriented economies, we look at that and say "my god, those people are living in squalor!!!" You've got to look closer. In an equatorial climate, people do not need elaborate housing. Question is: are those people well fed, healthy, and employed? If they are, that's not a bad picture. Human happiness and success is not defined by size of your LCD.

What if I posted a picture of a wealthy american in a high end house in their media room who is severely overweight, with an amputated leg due to diabetes, confined to a motorized scooter? "Progress and growth" are not always progress and growth.

Having said that, it is IMO impossible to go back to a "simpler" construct of society. Free markets, growth, industrialization, and personal wealth so underpin most western values that we cannot change... we have to find a way forward from here. As I've posted before, I don't think UBI is politically possible, so we have to dream up something else.
 
except for the years of schooling stat (for which you don't provide a cite) none of those statistics are comparative to other countries. if the Costa Rica baseline is much better than others some negative movement from a higher baseline is still better. those stats don't show what you think, or intend them to show.
They've got a real utopian society down there...and quite a growing poverty problem.

Also the New Economics Foundation sounds like a propaganda group for socialism.

7 Things to Know About Costa Rica’s Poverty Rate

In 2016, Costa Rica was named the happiest country in the world. But, while the country as a whole has enjoyed stability and a steadily growing economy in recent years, marginalized groups have been left behind.

Here are seven important facts about Costa Rica’s poverty rate that should not be overlooked:

  1. Costa Rica’s inequality rate has increased since 2000, a division that disproportionately affects indigenous and minority groups. Today, the country’s richest 20 percent receive an income 19 times higher than that of the poorest 20 percent.
  2. While, overall, Costa Rica’s poverty rate has dropped from 22.4 percent to 21.7 percent from 2014 to 2015, the country’s extreme poverty rate rose from 5.8 percent to 7.2 percent, the highest recorded rate in the last 60 years.
  3. While 19 percent of urban households live in poverty and 5.2 percent live in extreme poverty, 30.3 percent of rural households live in poverty and 10.6 percent in extreme poverty.
  4. Poor Costa Ricans have, on average, three years less schooling than their economically stable peers.
  5. In Costa Rica, 43.5 percent of poor households are headed by women.
  6. Since an inflation crisis in the ’80s and ’90s, the Costa Rican government has managed to boost the economy through international tourism and exports. These sectors benefit qualified workers, while unskilled workers, over-represented by indigenous and minority groups, see no change or a decrease in their salaries.
  7. Public assistance to poor families increased by 9.3 percent per household and 6.9 percent per person from 2014 to 2015.

View attachment 252426
 
us.png cr.png
Looking at the HappyPlanetIndex, you'll notice that this isn't about people being happy. It's about ecology. The US ranks 108th out of 140 where Costa Rica ranks 1st out of 140. A big factor in the happiness factor is that Costa Rica produces 98% of their power from renewables.

This had nothing to do with UBI or any success story attributed to socialism. If the U.S. cut it's ecological footprint we would match Costa Rica's "Happiness Index" AND we beat them on equality.

This index is hardly an indictment on the failures of capitalism.
 
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The Guardian article points out:
"In this sense, Costa Rica is the most efficient economy on earth: it produces high standards of living with low GDP and minimal pressure on the environment.

As you should know, money flows to those in power and the measure of societies equality is the extent to which the money is shared. Sharing money is much more efficient than hoarding by those in power. In the US, people who have power, privilege, access to education, employment opportunities, etc. work hard to keep "their" birthright. This is damaging to society, the environment and individuals as evidenced by the US's destructive inequality and environmental policies. It's much more efficient to distribute opportunity and income more broadly leading to better well being and less damage to the environment and individuals.
 
View attachment 252453 View attachment 252454
Looking at the HappyPlanetIndex, you'll notice that this isn't about people being happy. It's about ecology. The US ranks 108th out of 140 where Costa Rica ranks 1st out of 140. A big factor in the happiness factor is that Costa Rica produces 98% of their power from renewables.

This had nothing to do with UBI or any success story attributed to socialism. If the U.S. cut it's ecological footprint we would match Costa Rica's "Happiness Index" AND we beat them on equality.

This index is hardly an indictment on the failures of capitalism.
It is an indictment of the failure of the US:
The Happy Planet Index measures what matters: sustainable wellbeing for all. It tells us how well nations are doing at achieving long, happy, sustainable lives.

Wellbeing: How satisfied the residents of each country say they feel with life overall, on a scale from zero to ten, based on data collected as part of the Gallup World Poll.

Life expectancy: The average number of years a person is expected to live in each country based on data collected by the United Nations.

Inequality of outcomes: The inequalities between people within a country, in terms of how long they live, and how happy they feel, based on the distribution in each country’s life expectancy and wellbeing data. Inequality of outcomes is expressed as a percentage.

Ecological Footprint: The average impact that each resident of a country places on the environment, based on data prepared by the Global Footprint Network. Ecological Footprint is expressed using a standardized unit: global hectares (gha) per person.
 
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