-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Many times.
To paraphrase Al Bundy from 'Married with Children'... Most people strive for the American Dream -- the ability to go through life on autopilot.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Correct. It won't happen -- because installing Superchargers every 50 miles would be STUPID. Tesla Motors isn't stupid.
Those two sentences seem in conflict with each other -- and themselves -- and the facts.
Tesla Motors will not need 'a lot of Superchargers everywhere' at all. Within the next few years, the majority of owners will be those who are able to charge at home or at work. By the time a significant number of people considering a purchase of a new Tesla Motors product are those who are not homeowners battery technology will have improved to allow a much greater range.
If Supercharger locations are chosen well, they will be places where they can be expanded as needed. Also, there will be other Supercharger locations along busy routes to relieve potential stress on the system. And hotels/motels in the area will be equipped with Destination Chargers.
Even with ICE vehicles, certain routes are more popular than others. And even on busy corners, some gas stations are more popular than others. Some places will be busy all the time no matter what -- because they are popular. Some places will be busy only during holidays. Some places will almost never be busy. Whenever there are lines at gas stations, no one should be surprised if there are lines at Superchargers too. The word 'busy' exists for a reason.
My primary protest is to those who want Superchargers every 50 miles -- PERIOD. Whether a route is busy or not... Whether it is highly traveled or not... Whether it is between population centers or not... They want to have the convenience of a Supercharger every 50 miles, no matter what direction they drive in, no matter if they use backroads or major superhighways. Not because they expect the car to run out of juice every 50 miles... But because they absolutely REFUSE to plan road trips AT ALL and don't believe anyone else will be willing to do so.
My point is that I would highly advise anyone and everyone who cannot be bothered to learn how to read a map and plan a road trip that they should stick with an ICE vehicle until a Tesla Motors product they can afford has a 500 mile range. Otherwise, they will NEVER be satisfied with driving electric. I expect those people are not likely to become Tesla Motors Customers within the next five years anyway. That's a good thing, because I'd much rather not hear their whining and bellyaching about not being able to drive 600 miles at 90 MPH up a 6% grade in sub-freezing temperatures through hub-deep snow and gale force headwinds both ways without stopping.
It won't be a problem. The idea is to prepare for optimization instead of outright failure. Yes, the advent of Superchargers will certainly bring upon the return of The Great American Road Trip. People will drive their Model ☰ to places they ordinarily would have either flown, or never gone to at all. Because once people discover the joy of driving electric, they choose to drive more often.
But at the same time, more Model ☰ owners will be those who work 40-to-60 hours a week at a regular job. They aren't likely to have two-to-three months worth of vacation time per year. It will be more like two-or-three weeks of vacation instead. So, they'll make quick turnarounds on long weekends. Probably staying within a 500 mile radius of home. On the outside, that means they might use a Supercharger four times total on those rare occasions... maybe 16-to-20 times on longer road trips while on vacation... and their car will be happily charging in the parking lot at work or in their garage at home the rest of the time.
There is absolutely no need for the distribution of Superchargers to precisely match the availability of gasoline pumps/stations. Because, where probably less than 1/10th of 1% of ICE drivers are able to fill up at home, for some years to come better than 90% of EV owners will be able to do so at home. They won't be relying upon public infrastructure for their charging -- except when they take road trips. The very few people who may need to use Supercharger exclusively will not represent the Tesla Supercharger Armageddon that so many here constantly predict.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I'm pretty sure I mentioned one of them... Basically, that people just automatically stop to fill up when the needle gets to 1/4 tank remaining. One of the bad habits is that people don't actually pay any attention at all to the actual range of their cars. They don't know how far they have driven, they have no idea how much fuel their car holds, they do not know how much they put in when they fill up. They don't know how to manage their speed to improve their fuel economy. They don't realize that gasoline is not actually 'everywhere' at all. There are a lot fewer gas stations on the Interstate than there used to be. And the smaller ones are not open through the whole night.
Because of this inattentiveness, people want to just get in the car, pick a direction and GO... Then they want to blame the EV when the mistakes they make, through carelessness or stupidity, leave them stranded. I suspect that the same type of people who run out of juice in an EV are the very same ones who run out of gas in an ICE. Either way, it was never their fault, it was the stupid car. Those people would need a much higher capacity electric vehicle to travel the distance I could manage in a Tesla Model ☰. They shouldn't get an EV until those higher capacity cars are available.
Even when driving ICE, I have always planned my road trips. I generally plan to make at least one stop more than necessary for fuel. That is mostly so that I do not arrive at my destination on 'EMPTY'. In reality, due to the biological needs of passengers (someone always has to GO), I usually end up stopping at least twice more than absolutely necessary to cover the distance.
The reality is that the Tesla Model ☰ will be a car that requires planning to take a road trip. That is a factor of the range it will offer. For those who are willing to do so, planning a road trip is EASY today, and will be easier by the end of 2017. Planning the Supercharger network for the least common denominator is not the correct path of action. Currently it seems that the Superchargers are to be primarily in the 150-to-180 mile range from each other... And on high speed routes or on difficult terrain they seem to be planned or spaced at around 80-to-90 miles apart. Both those are effective distances to handle inclement weather and low capacity vehicles today, while still being a decent distance apart to allow leapfrogging of unneeded locations by higher capacity vehicles in the future.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Yes. I make it a point to track fuel economy and usage in an ICE. My Friends and I use the paraphrased quote, "Fuel? We don' need no steenkin' FUEL!" when the orange nanny light comes on, because we know how much further we can go.
I had a Honda Accord Coupe that was truly awesome on road trips. I could set the cruise control to 85 MPH and make 500-to-530 miles like clock work before refueling. That was awesome. But absolutely NO other vehicle I have driven cross country has performed as well on the highway since.
With that car, which had a 17.5 gallon capacity, the most I ever had to put in on a road trip was 16.5 or so... And I had covered something like 538-to-542 miles on that tank. I would just reset the odometer each time I fueled up. Then I wouldn't even start looking for another gas station until I had covered 450 miles. I tried very hard to not stop in less than 500 miles as often as I could.
My own physical limitations mean that I probably can't drive that far any more in a single sitting (at least not back-to-back). So, the need to stop more often in an EV wouldn't be quite so grating now as it would have been in my youth. But word from so many Tesla Model S owners that they used to do banzai runs themselves, but are much more refreshed upon arrival now strikes a chord with me. Because I remember at least a couple of times that I did long road trips and was simply wasted for a day or two after I got to my Grandparent's home in Mississippi.
Red Sage, I'm not sure what you're on about. The chargers don't need to come from Tesla. They'll come from 3rd parties -- because instead of digging up the earth and getting environmental waivers to install fuel tanks and having 18-wheelers full of gasoline drive back and forth across the country, the fuel (electrons) is already in the wires. It'll just cost a few thousand for anyone to put a 240V outlet with credit card access at a local restaurant.
When EVs make up 25/50/75/100% of all vehicles, destination chargers will be everywhere. Absolutely everywhere. Because rental cars will be EVs. Because people living in apartment buildings will be driving EVs. Because people will drive to resorts and then take day trips, and they're not going to drive 100 miles down the highway to re-charge. Because it'll be profitable for every restaurant/mall/shopping center to install pay-for-use chargers that allow people to shop/eat at the place of their choice, not just the McDonalds every 100 miles along the highway.
When EVs make up 25/50/75/100% of all vehicles, destination chargers will be everywhere. Absolutely everywhere. Because rental cars will be EVs. Because people living in apartment buildings will be driving EVs. Because people will drive to resorts and then take day trips, and they're not going to drive 100 miles down the highway to re-charge. Because it'll be profitable for every restaurant/mall/shopping center to install pay-for-use chargers that allow people to shop/eat at the place of their choice, not just the McDonalds every 100 miles along the highway.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
All I'm 'on about' is Superchargers. Those from Tesla Motors. That's it.
Sure, there will be charging options from other companies. I don't care about those. At all.
As for Pay-at-the-Pump options...? That won't be happening at Superchargers. For anyone that wants to try it anyway...? I give them a hearty hi-ho, "Rots-o-ruck, Raggy!" Because attempting to sell electricity for charging EVs has not been so lucrative for anyone thus far.
I believe that chargers, in that situation, will be 'everywhere' they are needed. That's all. So, you'll be able to find them in metropolitan areas that have horrible public transportation. You'll be able to find them in urban areas with lots of high occupancy dwellings. You'll be able to find them in places where people still purchase short range EVs.
But no one else will invest in the sort of charging infrastructure that Tesla Motors offers. Others will just have one or two charging posts per location, maybe four on the outside. And they will be SLOW. Anytime they offer fast DC charging, it will be single outlet, all alone in the night. It will be downright shameful. Oh, and EXPENSIVE too.
EVs are currently 0.5% of the new cars delivered. Of course any attempt at 3rd party charging hasn't been successful thus far!!! Let's check back when they're 25% of new cars.
The charging infrastructure that's needed is #6 copper wire plus a credit card machine. It's absolutely nothing.
I'll bet you a tall glass of whatever you drink vs. a V.O. Manhattan that by 2025 they'll be charging stations at every corner restaurant. Deal?
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I rarely wager at all, and it seems every Carl's Jr restaurant in my vicinity has BLiNK chargers in their lots already... So... No dice!
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
There are some "Dark Territory" regions of the US that need a sprinkling of SC. West Texas, northern New Mexico, SW Arizona. If I was a city dweller, I'd be (somewhat) worried about crowded SC and be hoping for debottlenecking of those locations. I'm more interested in being able to plan trips along convient routes that are currently not available. Every 50 miles? - seems unnecessary from my region. But, filling in dark territory seems to be a worthy goal. Refueling at truck stops, RV's and Nisson dealerships is in my future for my M3 travels.
I'm hoping for a grid of chargers...every once in a while being treated to a SC, but at least access to juice along the backroads.
I'm hoping for a grid of chargers...every once in a while being treated to a SC, but at least access to juice along the backroads.
garsh
Re Member
I can't figure out if I want to argue with Red Sage or not. I think his strawman might be beyond what I advocate.
I do believe that the supercharger network will need to be built out a lot more than it currently is. And I believe that the best way to do that would be to prefer additional locations with few superchargers rather than adding more superchargers at fewer locations. I don't believe that they should be everywhere. I do believe that they should eventually be spaced at close intervals (even 50 miles) along routes where superchargers are commonly used (again, more locations w. fewer stations being preferred).
I do believe that the supercharger network will need to be built out a lot more than it currently is. And I believe that the best way to do that would be to prefer additional locations with few superchargers rather than adding more superchargers at fewer locations. I don't believe that they should be everywhere. I do believe that they should eventually be spaced at close intervals (even 50 miles) along routes where superchargers are commonly used (again, more locations w. fewer stations being preferred).
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I live in the "four corners' area of the southwest US that connects AZ, CO, UT and NM. I may have seen my first Tesla yesterday, and that would be my first 'in the wild' EV ever for this region. And yet my upcoming M3 will be able to travel long distance any direction I want, today, using SCs
That is amazing
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Are you saying that this sparse area is adequately populated with chargers and needs no infill?
Some people are happy to do the planning - in fact, I'm looking forward to it. But the average person? They don't want to have to do it a lot.
I don't think we should knock them for being different. They just value flexibility more than we do. I don't think it's such an issue that they don't think about fuel economy or how much actual range their car has. The goal is to just make it easy for them. Why are spending so much time and effort judging them?
As Tesla goes from having 100,000 cars on the road in N.A., to 600,000-700,000 by the end of 2018, and then potentially another 1 million on top of that by the end of 2020, you HAVE to multiply the SC stations for highway travel. Yes, you can expand the number of charging booths at each station, but you'll still need to add SC stations. Whether the goal is to make it easier or not, the company is naturally going to end up placing them occasionally at shorter distances, like 40-50 miles.
Given that this is a new technology, and we want greater adoption, I don't think we should be so quick to say that more SC's at shorter distances/intervals is such a bad idea.
I'm going to go ahead and say that either: (1) I disagree with you, or (2) We agree to disagree. I think Tesla has to eventually shorten the gap between SC's whether it's needed or not.
There are situations where I would benefit, like driving slightly off of the major routes and having enough charge to get back to the route and get charged, for example.
I routinely make a trip that is 150 miles, and then drive back needing another 75 miles of range to get to the current SC placed along my route. That's 225 miles of range. Depending on temperatures, headwinds, and additional travel between those two trips, there's a chance I'll be cutting it short even with a 300+ mile range on the upcoming Model 3.
The only current alternatives including charging after the first 75 miles are driven (really slow charge rate and a little silly, to be frank) or petition my destination to offer an outlet for me to plug into.
This challenge is resolved by the addition of another SC. It'll be great when we have more destination charging options, but it will require some infrastructure at my regular destination (a race track) and so I don't know if they will do it. There is a truck stop right next door and my hope is that they will put one in, because I routinely go there to use the facilities (shower rental, etc.) and could get a good charge in that time.
Except that they have stated in public that it will be standard.
This is not a fixed cost regardless of whether Model ≡s include free supercharging or not. More cars using the network increase the number of stations needed for the same satisfaction level.
Thank you kindly.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Except they walked back that guarantee.
So if you get the base model/small battery, expect to tack on a fee to enable access, a la the Model S60.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Even though I will be unlikely traveling to the places mentioned, I do agree that Tesla first needs to fill in those gaps rather than focusing on adding more stations near cities, given the SC network's primary mission is to support long distance travel. There are many interstate routes Tesla has yet to cover.
Similar threads
