SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The average person will not buy an EV for quite a few years yet. And some of them will be married to people who can handle the arithmetic.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Tesla has since clarified that all Model 3 will have the capability of supercharging standard (AKA hardware standard), but they haven't decided on whether supercharging will be free.
"All Model 3 will have the capability for Supercharging. We haven’t specified (and aren’t right now) whether supercharging will be free."
Tesla Misses Q1 Goal, Clarifies Model 3 Supercharger Status
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Eventually, yes. But I'll hazard a guess that more than one empty charger spot does not a more satisfied customer make, and with a few well publicized exceptions, SCs sit empty these days. I don't mean to say that a stop is not utilized at all, but that they are over-built with multiple charger stations to cover a lot of future growth.
I wouldn't even mind if instead of a full blown supercharger station, they just work with truck stops or some other convenient location and setup 2-3 high powered charging bays for these more remote locations. It's additional business for the truck stop or restaurant and Tesla would likely have to handle electric costs and all of the build out and maintenance.
No, Elon said that the cheapest model would be minimum 215 EPA range. That is a careful statement which totally ignores 'real world'.
But should it? Let's take I-90, this is a full cross-country interstate. If Tesla determines that its predicted fleet needs 3000 chargers along that length (pulling a number from the air), should those chargers be in 20 stations 150 miles apart, 60 stations 50 miles apart, or 3,000 stations 1 mile apart? Clearly that last is wrong, but I don't see how 20 stations are better than 60. There are some fixed costs that push the optimum toward fewer, larger stations, but customer convenience and safety push the other way. Since I have no idea what those fixed costs are, and can't imagine them being overwhelming, I see
Tesla needs to build SC for the current fleet, as well as the upcoming fleet, (and hopefully the non-Tesla fleet as well). Nor do I see minimum range constantly increasing. It is an engineering trade off, and Tesla is on the side of more cars, rather than more range. I don't envision a lot of 500 mile range vehicles, particularly if we get sensible about other things as well.
Why would Tesla ever build a Supercharger where there was no demand? Given demand why would all of that demand necessarily go to some other charger? Not every person is starting from the same place and going on the same journey. Taking the I-90 example above, why would everyone suddenly visit only odd numbered SC, and not even numbered ones? That's nuts, especially when they know the wait at the even numbered ones is less.
The electric fleet is going to be doubling in size at least nine times in the next decade or two. Chargers will need to be matching that at least somewhat closely.
Thank you kindly.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
I think the assumption that public charging stations need to rise linearly with the size of the fleet is not sound logic.
First, with rare exception, the SC network is highly underutilized. In the early build out, location was the most important aspect, to enable long distance travel along an interstate route. You had to have one at fairly standard intervals, without much regard for how often it would be used, in order to make that vision a reality.
Second, the vast majority of EV charging is done at home. If we have 9x more EVs on the road, and 90% of their charging is done at home, you'd really only need to double the number of SCs for everything to be fine. There are some complexities introduced around peak travel times like holiday weekends and such - but most of the time there's no problem.
I bet we'll see more and more destination chargers before a ton of public charging stations crop up.
Also, might even be good business for gas stations with convenience stores to install charging spots....
Also, might even be good business for gas stations with convenience stores to install charging spots....
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I think it largely depends on how many stalls per station would those gaps imply. For less popular routes, Tesla seemed to have settled on 4-6 stalls per station. If a 50 mile gap means 2-3 stalls per stations, then I think Tesla will prefer less stations with a bigger gap since that reduces overhead.
And for future expansion, it depends on how well prepped the station is for expansion. If there is extra capacity in the transformer for installing more stalls, Tesla can save a lot of money by expanding the number of stalls instead of installing an entirely separate station.
Yes, that is exactly what I was saying.
Which is why I claimed nothing of the sort. If you think the current chargers are sufficient for nine doublings in the number of cars, I beg to differ. Tesla talked at the reveal of doubling the number of Superchargers, when they were thinking that the number of cars was going to double (not hextuple). How much of that is infilling and extending, and how much is increased capacity, I don't know.
Thank you kindly.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
They way you responded seems that you disagreed with Mkorpal's statement that while Tesla includes the hardware, the activation might cost money (same as in autopilot and certain batteries).
You shouldn't have to do any math. That's the whole point of the trip planner. The car will tell you when you need to stop at a supercharger.
Everything else being equal, though, it is nicer to have more choices about when to stop. If I want to supercharge over lunch I don't want the placement of the one supercharger I have to stop at determine when I should have lunch. Necessary? No, but it is nice having superchargers close enough that you have a choice of which ones to stop at. Tesla seems to agree, since while they aren't always 50 miles apart, they do seem to be aiming at 75-80 miles apart in California (which presumably is the forefront of what everywhere will look like eventually). That gives you the option of skipping a supercharger and going to the next one if you want.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Friend 'A': Let's do lunch in Los Angeles
Friend 'B': A new place has opened in San Diego ...
A bit earlier there was a debate about motorway speeds. Bear in mind that most of Europe (where I expect roughly 1/3 total sales) has a speed limit of 81 mph (130 km/h), with traffic flowing at around 85... In Germany, many parts have no speed limit at all, and by driving 130 km/h you're quite slow... Even I with an MPV, usually full of stuff, when driving through Germany I set my cruise control at 85-90 mph...
Nobody will drive 60 mph on a motorway here... Therefore, a bigger battery pack is a necessity.
Nobody will drive 60 mph on a motorway here... Therefore, a bigger battery pack is a necessity.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
This is the exact scenario. (I'm not familiar with the geography)
I will often make a trip and a debate like this comes up. With an ICE, you can fill up very quickly and be on your way. It's not nearly as easy in this case, which is why additional range is helpful. Granted, you start every trip with a full tank as long as you can charge at home, so that certainly helps, but doesn't change the scenario where you may have already driven 200 miles and there is a debate about where to eat, how much further it is, etc. and unless the place you want to go is near a charging location, you've suddenly added 30 minutes to your trip. The more superchargers they have and the more places with other electric charging systems, the easier adoption will be.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
This is a really good idea that has been suggested multiple times. I still don't want to see it happen. Because you'd still have to go to places where the odor of gasoline fumes and aroma of diesel exhaust are prevalent. You'd still see the stains and spills and dirt and grime left by the passage of ICE vehicles. I would much rather that Tesla Motors built their own facilities on US Highways. Let the guys at Travel Centers of America, Love's, and SHEETZ stick with ICE as long as they can. They will adopt EV coverage on their own in time.
I imagine that a Tesla Waypoint or Tesla Depot would cater to electric vehicles. They'd be spaced roughly 450-to-600 miles apart along major East-West Interstate Highways. Each one would have perhaps 16-to-36 Supercharger stalls, all covered with a solar panel canopy, and arranged to allow for easy access while towing. Regular parking spaces would have CCS/CHAdeMO/J1772 power connectors for other EVs. There would be a food court with a convenience store on site -- but without tobacco or alcohol sales. Each would have a Service Center on site, and a Tesla Store as well. Naturally, there would be a lounge and lavatories and other amenities like a car wash there, and possibly even a battery swap station.
If there were perhaps 24-to-36 of these locations across the US, it would go a long way toward validating the EV experience to the public. People must see that driving long distance with an EV is a real thing, not some fantasy, or fly-by-night fad. The idea is to allow folks to see that Tesla Motors is not going anywhere. And seeing evidence that they employ people in local areas in decent, well paying jobs can't hurt either.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I am rather certain that it is not a case of Tesla Motors choosing one over the other. I believe that there is hidden resistance to the expansion of the Supercharger network in the US. When I see how many Superchargers have been installed in China and Europe over the past two years, and then note the fact that a small fraction of those could have covered all of I-10 and I-20. Superchargers can be built rather quickly. But negotiations with landlords, getting permits, and navigating local regulations can take time. The 'gaps' will be filled. It will happen much more quickly than some expect, even if it happens a lot later than some of us have hoped.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Except out here on the East Coast, they've been putting some of the SC's in rest stops along major highways, like the Jersey Turnpike, so you're still going to get some of that "road trip atmosphere" anyway.
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