Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?

[Nuclear Fusion]

The more I think about it the more I think Tesla will struggle to achieve FSD.
I live off a sealed & marked winding mountain road. Both the X with HW2.0 & the 3 with HW3.0 have both consistently failed to negotiate an ‘S’ curve over the last 12 months approximately, despite repeated software updates. This curve is simple, simple stuff. You would think it could handle it by now. And of course, Tesla seems well off handling hairpin bends

 

[CertLive]

Well a genuine windows 10 key only costs £6 on ebay so lets not bloat the figures here. Its like saying a £40,000 car will have a $100,000 self driving tick box on the app. Inflation in here is strong and less money after a pandemic might just not aid it.

 

[Knightshade]

Well a genuine windows 10 key only costs £6 on ebay

For certain values of genuine


The super cheap ebay keys historically have been one of the following:


gray market from poorer foreign countries. Technically it's illegal to buy those for a PC in another country- but MS doesn't really do much to stop it.

corporate or education keys being resold illegally by IT guys who know they paid for 10k keys but aren't using all of em so who's gonna notice? (these sometimes just randomly stop working when it turns out they do go over 10k installs-resale of these is also in violation of MS license terms- but again enforcement is spotty at best)-

Fly by night sellers who resell the same key a bunch of times then make a new ebay account


So really that's the equivalent of saying instead of paying $8000 for FSD you're gonna find a hacker to enable it for $800.

 

[CertLive]

For certain values of genuine


The super cheap ebay keys historically have been one of the following:


gray market from poorer foreign countries. Technically it's illegal to buy those for a PC in another country- but MS doesn't really do much to stop it.

corporate or education keys being resold illegally by IT guys who know they paid for 10k keys but aren't using all of em so who's gonna notice? (these sometimes just randomly stop working when it turns out they do go over 10k installs-resale of these is also in violation of MS license terms- but again enforcement is spotty at best)-

Fly by night sellers who resell the same key a bunch of times then make a new ebay account


So really that's the equivalent of saying instead of paying $8000 for FSD you're gonna find a hacker to enable it for $800.

Or a 3rd and honest way allow root access and let people install their own version of FSD and see if they can beat Tesla at their own game. This would drive innovation forward by many orders of magnitude.

 

[Knightshade]

Or a 3rd and honest way allow root access and let people install their own version of FSD and see if they can beat Tesla at their own game. This would drive innovation forward by many orders of magnitude.

Something like that kinda already exists. Still not as good as Teslas product.

comma.ai – Introducing openpilot

 

[SammichLover]

Or a 3rd and honest way allow root access and let people install their own version of FSD and see if they can beat Tesla at their own game. This would drive innovation forward by many orders of magnitude.

Sweet Geebus, other cars out there with anyone and their dog allowed to pop in an arbitrary built AI? That'd increase my desire to stay off public roads by orders of magnitude.

 

[Dutchie]

I got a reply

Thank you for the additional information. I can understand how frustrating this has been for our customers. Full Self Driving is an amazing feature and something I would be anxious to receive as well. Thank you for the idea of a monthly newsletter with updates on FSD completion. We appreciate your feedback, and will forward it to our Request team for consideration. We cannot promise that this will be available, but our team reviews every customer request seriously.

We do offer a blog with more information regarding Tesla and the latest features. You can sign up hereNews | Tesla.

Please let me know if there is anything else that I may assist you with. Thank you for being part of the Tesla Community.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I got a reply

Well done lad. Now someone else looks the fool...

 

[electrifyme]

Everyone should just do themselves a favor and pass on fsd. Get it when its completed. Use the money to invest in stocks or hold until the right time. During the covid stock drop, you could have made a killing with that 8k. I sure know I did... i got 78% return. Elon is the master of false promises and missed dates. Surprised people still fall for this... haven't we been fooled n-times already on these dates? Wise up people !

 

[Dan203]

They'll probably get there eventually but I'm betting it takes way longer than expected. What they’re trying to accomplish is way more complicated then they let on. Other companies are using lidar and high resolution mapping because that's the easy way to get there. Tesla is basically trying to create an AI capable of driving better than a human using nothing more than computer vision.

 

[electrifyme]

Yes we will eventually get there but not on my dime. Heck, by the time it gets there, I may have moved on to another model and that 8k is down the drain.

 

[run-the-joules]

Everyone should just do themselves a favor and pass on fsd. Get it when its completed. Use the money to invest in stocks or hold until the right time. During the covid stock drop, you could have made a killing with that 8k. I sure know I did... i got 78% return. Elon is the master of false promises and missed dates. Surprised people still fall for this... haven't we been fooled n-times already on these dates? Wise up people !

The problem is that since they killed off Enhanced Autopilot, you'd be stuck with basic Autopilot, which is honestly a pretty terrible user experience once you've gotten used to automatic lane changes. I could begrudgingly live without NoA, and I suppose I could stand to live without Summon, but if I'm gonna give up automatic lane changes, I might as well just go buy an Audi and at least have comfortable seats while manually changing lanes like some kind of peasant.

This of course is why they killed EAP: Only idiots like me were buying FSD when you didn't actually get anything for buying it.

 

[SergeyUser]

Everyone should just do themselves a favor and pass on fsd. Get it when its completed. Use the money to invest in stocks or hold until the right time. During the covid stock drop, you could have made a killing with that 8k. I sure know I did... i got 78% return. Elon is the master of false promises and missed dates. Surprised people still fall for this... haven't we been fooled n-times already on these dates? Wise up people !

This will actually increase innovation, by forcing Tesla to only get money when an actual product is available.

 

[Mo City]

Everyone should just do themselves a favor and pass on fsd. Get it when its completed. Use the money to invest in stocks or hold until the right time. During the covid stock drop, you could have made a killing with that 8k. I sure know I did... i got 78% return. Elon is the master of false promises and missed dates. Surprised people still fall for this... haven't we been fooled n-times already on these dates? Wise up people !

Regarding false promises, I think Elon has improved in this area quite a bit, with the exception of FSD. Unfortunately, he still mentions robotaxis as if they could happen in a couple of years. This is sad, especially since his other forecasts given the last year or so are mostly legit.

 

[Tessaract]

Actual sentence parsing isn't really what we're talking about, here. Defaulting to the low speed for complex schedule info (for example School zones) is an entirely viable solution, pending manual reporting to update the static background geographic database. Especially if you add tags for the sign in the database to note the very oddball sign for future scans.

You don't need truly 100% sign reading to represent an improvement over humans, because let's face it, humans certainly don't do that on the whole and very rarely in the individual.

The school zone sign is only one example among many. Even interpreting which characters actually set the lowest speed requires sign comprehension. Unless you know for a 100% certainty that all school zone signs have the identical number in the identical location.

And you may be right that some humans can't read signs, and many humans don't bother, and even among those who do read and comprehend, many choose to disregard... But no self-driving capability test will compare a car against that subset of persons.

 

[SammichLover]

The school zone sign is only one example among many. Even interpreting which characters actually set the lowest speed requires sign comprehension. Unless you know for a 100% certainty that all school zone signs have the identical number in the identical location.

Again, start out with failsafe to lowest speed 24/7, potentially even generating a flag of "?" to get into a queue for extra evaluation (probably a human for now), then get a dedicated human check on it (so it is an upper percentile) and store the geotagged info in the master road information database.

This a similar strategy to what Waymo is doing, btw. They still have dedicated operators for their "rider only" vehicles, which are used for realtime input to resolve situation puzzles.

The delayed response is enough here because posted roads speeds are quite stable, unlike the situations that Waymo is trying to address.

 

[SammichLover]

This will actually increase innovation, by forcing Tesla to only get money when an actual product is available.

Good news. There is an actual product available, right now.

This has been the case for over a year with FSD.

 

[pdx_m3s]

With each passing month, I'm so glad I didn't opt for FSD. Tesla will solve the FSD problem (in a way that is actually useful), but it will be years from now.

 

[Tessaract]

Again, start out with failsafe to lowest speed 24/7, potentially even generating a flag of "?" to get into a queue for extra evaluation (probably a human for now), then get a dedicated human check on it (so it is an upper percentile) and store the geotagged info in the master road information database.

This a similar strategy to what Waymo is doing, btw. They still have dedicated operators for their "rider only" vehicles, which are used for realtime input to resolve situation puzzles.

The delayed response is enough here because posted roads speeds are quite stable, unlike the situations that Waymo is trying to address.

Unless I misinterpret your post, that sounds like a terrible suggestion. The lowest speed in my urban area is 30km/h. Using that as a failsafe speed everywhere is a prescription for many annoyed drivers, passengers, and followers. And using it on a road with a school zone sign, is also wrong, and an annoyance to everyone. I suggest you suggest a better algorithm.

 

[SammichLover]

Unless I misinterpret your post, that sounds like a terrible suggestion. The lowest speed in my urban area is 30km/h. Using that as a failsafe speed everywhere is a prescription for many annoyed drivers, passengers, and followers. And using it on a road with a school zone sign, is also wrong, and an annoyance to everyone. I suggest you suggest a better algorithm.

Lowest speed on the sign. Normally these signs are "during these events/these periods" anyway.

P.S. And the annoyance will be relatively short-lived once they get a flag-review-geotag pipeline going.