With version 9, how many years ahead is Tesla now?

[alcibiades]

Unfortunately you are not correct. Even if FSD comes out for newer cars they can keep saying they are still working on FSD for older cars

They can say that, but it won't be believable to a judge or jury. Saying stuff isn't proof of anything.

And regarding Waymo "not being for sale to consumers" -- newsflash, urban kids don't want to own cars. Being able to buy a Tesla that can suggest a lane change is far less interesting to them than being able to call a robo-car to take them to the bar and home again.

 

[drift]

I done one of those demo rides from Uber. And as so many others have reported was underwhelmed. It was not self driving under unknown conditions. It had to stay on a strict route, would not overtake and would hesitate all the time. Highway driving in my Tesla is simple better.

For now Tesla is the only company that is able to get partial autodrive to hundreds of thousands of a drivers. There IS no competition. Waymo and Uber don't sell even partial auto drive. They actually sell no hardware to private. The moment they start to do is the moment we'll start to compare. I drove 1300 Km in a very long night this weekend. Close to 1200 of that was on autodrive with me just sitting and hitting the steering wheel a zillion times. I call that self driving, what do you call it?

Exactly right. I am amused at all the posters that think Waymo, Uber etc. are so much better but they still own and drive a Tesla.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

By the way, comparison of Tesla's Autopilot progress compared to the competition is discussed at length on this thread:

Seeing the world in autopilot, part deux

 

[whitex]

They can say that, but it won't be believable to a judge or jury. Saying stuff isn't proof of anything.

I don't think many people will go to court over $3K on their own. If it will be a class action lawsuit, it will be like EAP one which recently ended with less than $300 awarded out of $5,000 or $6,000 that people paid for EAP. P85D hp was settled in Europe for ~$5K per owner, while each paid $25K+ (Europe higher prices). Instead of the $5K, they could trade it for a 50hp ludicrous upgrade, still leaving them at just over 500hp instead of 691hp they were sold. In US, nobody bothered with a lawsuit(at least nothing that hit the news).

So, while you are right, you could win in court, doing it yourself would cost you more time and money than it's worth. Class action will get you peanuts. Add to that the fine print they put there which told you they don't know when you'll get it, if ever (in government doesn't approve), and a lawsuit is a losing proposition, so most people won't bother. I considered going after Tesla for the P85D power, but concluded it wasn't worth my effort, even though I was fairly sure I would win in the end (probably no more than $5K though).

 

[whitex]

You make an excellent point. Nobody tells a lie better than a person who believes it to be the truth. I think that's where the problem lies, these people really believe.

It is astonishing how thoroughly Tesla employees believe the company is changing the world. The problem is they think it's perfect in every way. Obviously that can never be correct. I really don't think they were lying, they were just telling what is not the truth, because they believed it was the truth.

It does get Tesla into a lot of trouble but I have to say that I'm amazed, and continually impressed, when I talked at length with a Tesla employee. It's rare to find one who doesn't believe that Musk is driving a change that will save Humanity. Or at least something close to that. So, you are correct that they lied to you. I did forget that particular promise that was floating around. (It didn't bother me so alas, shallow person that I am, I completely forgot about it.)

Main point? I don't think they knew they were lying to you.

The actual people may not have been lying, but this is why I said Tesla sales, the company message. Just because they lied to their sales people and then the sales people actually believed it, doesn't make it the truth.

That said, I think even the sales people has some doubts, because when I asked whether i can have my money back if the December EAP doesn't come, they said no, then I asked if I can have (in writing) that my warranty will be extended until 6-months after FSD if fully functional (working in any jurisdiction), they also said no. The fact that they couldn't offer any tangible guarantees should have shown to the sales people that Tesla didn't have the confidence of being able to deliver when they said they will, or even within 3 years for FSD.

 

[Raechris]

Then Elon shouldn't take money for FSD if he isn't 100% sure they can ship it. There's a difference in the world between buying a product and investing, and FSD is sold as a product.

90% of Tesla's problems would go away if they didn't take money for something that doesn't exist yet (and often never comes to exist).

Fair point but blame your government and the lawyers. A former president tried to deal with it but failed. This legal system limits what is technically now possible (FSD). But when people sue for using a hands on system improperly, against this legal system backdrop, the company has had enough of these predatory lawsuits. Do you want a refund or AP3 - which will be the next complaint.

 

[gearchruncher]

This legal system limits what is technically now possible (FSD).

How is Uber and Waymo operating in Arizona if it's illegal?
If Tesla really has FSD, then release it, but leave the nags. Prove to us it exists. All we know right now is they can't even read a speed limit sign or stop sign.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

...
They sold me 691hp car with AP1 which was supposed to find me anywhere on private property and with SDK "coming soon" that was supposed to allow me to write my own apps. 4 years later, 691hp never came (car would need 50% power increase to get there, yes, yes, an excuse did come that the car is capable, just not the drive-train or battery)...Tesla does deliver on some of the promises, like 691hp, just not to people they sold it to (for a mere $100K extra I could upgrade to P100D so I could get the 691hp they sold me 4 years ago).

Still a little sore about 691gate I see

 

[whitex]

Still a little sore about 691gate I see

It just seems like a good indicator of what will happen with FSD. Tesla sold something with insufficient hardware to achieve it and the only way to actually get is to wait until they get there in a future version of the car, then buy that new car.

 

[henderrj]

Maybe we're not thinking this out right. If we're talking about people not yet in the Tesla world then perception is everything. I still have people get into my AP1 car and they are astounded by the autopilot. I can't imagine what they would think if they were in one with version 9! So, if "perception is reality" is a true saying than what we should be really asking is does the public think Tesla is 2 years ahead?

 

[TacC]

Maybe we're not thinking this out right. If we're talking about people not yet in the Tesla world then perception is everything. I still have people get into my AP1 car and their ass pounded by the autopilot. I can't imagine what they would think if they were in one with version 9! So, if "perception is reality" is a true saying than what we should be really asking is does the public think Tesla is 2 years ahead?

lolololol. Speech-to-text, FTW

In all seriousness, I think you hit on the most relevant perspective.

If the public believes that Tesla is on par with Waymo or Uber, it is enough to significantly impact other manufacturers. While you can't buy a Waymo or Uber vehicle, there are 1000s of Tesla vehicles for sale today.

The vast majority of people are not keeping up with Mobileye and every blog about autonomous progression.

 

[henderrj]

lolololol. Speech-to-text, FTW

In all seriousness, I think you hit on the most relevant perspective.

If the public believes that Tesla is on par with Waymo or Uber, it is enough to significantly impact other manufacturers. While you can't buy a Waymo or Uber vehicle, there are 1000s of Tesla vehicles for sale today.

The vast majority of people are not keeping up with Mobileye and every blog about autonomous progression.

That was funny! Thanks, I corrected it (and manually typed this!)

 

[tropical1]

Ok my summary is this
1. Try to buy any car (including ice) that is as good as current autopilot and is upgradeable over time.
2. Now try to buy that car as an ev with range, Superchargers, etc.

Oh wait you can’t , all the other manufacturers have vaporware or compliance cars. Tesla is so far ahead because they have invested billions in what counts, gigafactory, superchargers, and autonomy hardware and software. If you think other manufacturers can catch up quickly you are kidding yourself. They are not structured to deliver this kind of product. But if you want seat massagers, hey they have them.

I honestly hope some other manufacturer will see the writing on the wall and change but so far no evidence. To build evs requires them to change their business model and take big risks. Unfortunately, this is not happening at any scale worth mentioning yet. Even UBS who is critical of Tesla said the Audi product was behind and it hasn’t even been released yet. Therefore, Tesla will lead in this space for quite a while. Version 9 just adds more time to that already big lead.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

It just seems like a good indicator of what will happen with FSD. Tesla sold something with insufficient hardware to achieve it and the only way to actually get is to wait until they get there in a future version of the car, then buy that new car.

But, it was already stated that if new hardware is required it will be retrofitted for free for owners that bought FSD.

691gate was pretty bad but note that they've learned, M3 RWD is rated at 283hp but dynoed at 335hp at the wheels, apparently 283 is the 30min. continuous rating. I see improvement on this front.

 

[whitex]

But, it was already stated that if new hardware is required it will be retrofitted for free for owners that bought FSD.

691gate was pretty bad but note that they've learned, M3 RWD is rated at 283hp but dynoed at 335hp at the wheels, apparently 283 is the 30min. continuous rating. I see improvement on this front.

Granted, they learned about the specs to publish along the lines of the rest of the industry(hp) or stop publishing a spec at all (battery capacity on Model3, so you don't end up with advertised 85KWh battery which is only 81.5KWh total, 77KWh usable, when brand new - like all Model S with 85 batteries). That said, historically they did offer one hardware retrofit, ludicrous upgrade for P85D, and even though it costed $5,000 and there orders of magnitude less candidates than FSD (remember that Model 3 has FSD and they are pumping them out by the thousands per week), it took forever (over a year to get it scheduled and done). I am still waiting for a $500 MSRP wall charger from my March awards. So, retrofitting a couple of hundred thousand cars or more will take forever plus - Tesla sucks at logistics when it comes to things which don't generate profit. If the upgrade will require new sensors, it will take even longer to even figure out how to ass those little wipers on cameras, or radars for BSM. And I've said nothing yet about the per car cost multiplied by hundreds of thousands of cars, which Tesla may simply not be able to afford.

Btw, do you think Tesla will retrofit AP1 cars with side cameras to provide a more reliable BSM (something which was officially in the AP1 specifications, so I could argue they should deliver)? Of course not, and that would be so many less cars to retrofit

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Granted, they learned about the specs to publish along the lines of the rest of the industry(hp) or stop publishing a spec at all (battery capacity on Model3, so you don't end up with advertised 85KWh battery which is only 81.5KWh total, 77KWh usable, when brand new - like all Model S with 85 batteries). That said, historically they did offer one hardware retrofit, ludicrous upgrade for P85D, and even though it costed $5,000 and there orders of magnitude less candidates than FSD (remember that Model 3 has FSD and they are pumping them out by the thousands per week), it took forever (over a year to get it scheduled and done). I am still waiting for a $500 MSRP wall charger from my March awards. So, retrofitting a couple of hundred thousand cars or more will take forever plus - Tesla sucks at logistics when it comes to things which don't generate profit. If the upgrade will require new sensors, it will take even longer to even figure out how to ass those little wipers on cameras, or radars for BSM. And I've said nothing yet about the per car cost multiplied by hundreds of thousands of cars, which Tesla may simply not be able to afford.

Btw, do you think Tesla will retrofit AP1 cars with side cameras to provide a more reliable BSM (something which was officially in the AP1 specifications, so I could argue they should deliver)? Of course not, and that would be so many less cars to retrofit

Are you saying you don't believe that Tesla will cover the cost of FSD hardware for those who paid for it?

 

[whitex]

Are you saying you don't believe that Tesla will cover the cost of FSD hardware for those who paid for it?

Yes, it would be a logistical nightmare and prohibitive cost. Not to mention by the time Tesla actually has FSD which can be used in ride-sharing, driving your kids to school and such, most of AP2 cars will be so old they will not be operational. Or, do you think Tesla will commit to restoring all those old cars to fully operational driving state (which they would have to be if you let them drive all on their own)?

 

[CK_Stuggi]

The FSD hardware upgrade to AP2 is only a logic board swap. No new sensors. According to Musk (salt grain warning) it's an easy swap that can be done by a ranger. Not sure if I read something about "in less then 30 min".
Essentially they need to get behind the glove box, unplug the old board, plug in the new (pin compatible), close the car back up and *poof* FSD capable hardware (assuming they can get the Software working at some point - I'm hopeful).

Now of course, considering there's now 280.000 vehicles with AP2 and maybe 50% having prepaid FSD (I remember a post on electrek that had a number but couldn't find it), Tesla need to upgrade a significant number of vehicles, especially if the drop-in board will only be ready in 6 months.
Then we'll be looking at a minimum total of around 450.000 cars which need the upgrade.
And that's not taking into account people who might see V9 and upgrade to FSD, even increasing the number of needed retrofits.

I sure hope they do it by date of FSD order. Otherwise it will be an inapropriately long wait for the people mislead by the Oct 2016 video.

 

[boonedocks]

The FSD hardware upgrade to AP2 is only a logic board swap. No new sensors. According to Musk (salt grain warning) it's an easy swap that can be done by a ranger. Not sure if I read something about "in less then 30 min".
Essentially they need to get behind the glove box, unplug the old board, plug in the new (pin compatible), close the car back up and *poof* FSD capable hardware (assuming they can get the Software working at some point - I'm hopeful).

Now of course, considering there's now 280.000 vehicles with AP2 and maybe 50% having prepaid FSD (I remember a post on electrek that had a number but couldn't find it), Tesla need to upgrade a significant number of vehicles, especially if the drop-in board will only be ready in 6 months.
Then we'll be looking at a minimum total of around 450.000 cars which need the upgrade.
And that's not taking into account people who might see V9 and upgrade to FSD, even increasing the number of needed retrofits.

I sure hope they do it by date of FSD order. Otherwise it will be an inapropriately long wait for the people mislead by the Oct 2016 video.

1: I would also hope that Tesla upgrades the cars hardware on when (earliest dates first) the FSD fee was paid not the way Software updates happen which seem totally random and not really fair by anyone’s imagination

2: I do believe there was 50%+ take rate through early 2017 but I really doubt 50% after the Tweets and false video started to overtake the Kool aid we all drank.

 

[kgroschi]

....or Uber or other self driving efforts. If you mean how far ahead in terms of Level 3 only and sold to the public (vs. just offering a ride share service like Waymo), then not that much ahead of say Audi Level 3. Tesla is ahead in taking risks, absolutely, but that hasn't yielded as much lead as you'd think - it absolutely motivated the rest of the industry to catch up though.

Audi Level 3 works only up to 60 km/h... that's not a real Level 3 car.