boiler81
Member
Won't Robotaxis reduce this need by a factor of ten or more, with their higher utilization?
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$10,000 for FSD
- Thread starter St☰v☰
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Won't Robotaxis reduce this need by a factor of ten or more, with their higher utilization?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Who knows ? But consider this simple exercise:
Figure the taxi fleet is highly utilized for 16 hours a day
Figure a taxi spends as much time going to a customer as it does taking a customer to a destination. That leaves 8 hours a day of ferrying people.
Figure 30 mph average speed.
That works out to 240 miles a day of useful transport miles at most if there is NO downtime. You know that is waay optimistic
An average USA owned car travels about 15k miles a year, or about 40 miles a day. So a hyper-optimistic scenario would suggest a robo-taxi can supplant 6 cars.
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Now, start with 100E6 new car purchases a year
A quarter continue to buy their own cars -- 25 million
The other 75 million cars are replaced 6:1 by robotaxis -- another 12.5 million cars
= 37.5 million new cars a year
Or let's get far fetched and say 90% of car use turns to robotaxis:
10 million private cars bought a year
15 million new robotaxis a year
= 25 million new passenger vehicles a year
All I can really surmise from Elon's snippets is that he wants to corner the robotaxi market. No surprise there.
coconutboy84
Member
I look at it this way. If uber was cheaper would I be calling an Uber every day or would I still want and use my own car.
I'm still going to want and use my own car. Cars will still be sold. I don't think robo taxi is going to be as big as everyone thinks. Is anyone here going to sell their tesla for an Uber with no driver? I like owning cars, trucks, motorcycle toys.
I'm still going to want and use my own car. Cars will still be sold. I don't think robo taxi is going to be as big as everyone thinks. Is anyone here going to sell their tesla for an Uber with no driver? I like owning cars, trucks, motorcycle toys.
Fernand
Active Member
Don't muddy the waters. Coming from no AP or plain AP, "FSD" at this point specifically adds:
The new hardware 3.0 if you don't have it.
Freeway NOA. From on-ramp to off-ramp. Speak your destination and the car handles steering, passing and lane changes, freeway interchanges, to the closest exit. I'm uneasy about making lane changes in heavy traffic, so it has huge value to me. I've been using this every day for nearly 2 years. Huge value. Saying it doesn't work is nonsense.
Parking lot summon, self parking. Of limited utility, but come in handy at times.
Street AP with automatic lane changes on blinker request, no disengaging AP. Stop sign and lights handling, manual "go". I use this every day. Of course it works.
By year end, Street level NOA to match Freeway NOA. There have been 3 updates in the last 10 days, it's working and the neural net is refining at an exponential rate, very fast now. Look at the early beta clips.
It's not about some distant future. These assists are huge, and don't have to be "level 5" to have huge value right now.
If you're a "manual" fan and you drive better than anybody, you don't care. If it's too expensive for you, I understand. If you prefer a bigger battery, fine. There's an ocean of superchargers here, I don't need a huge battery or 2 motors. If you demand a "robotaxi", this ain't it. But don't BS about how it has no value, it doesn't work, or it's not going to work for years, 'cause people can be using these assists to advantage right now.
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The new hardware 3.0 if you don't have it.
Freeway NOA. From on-ramp to off-ramp. Speak your destination and the car handles steering, passing and lane changes, freeway interchanges, to the closest exit. I'm uneasy about making lane changes in heavy traffic, so it has huge value to me. I've been using this every day for nearly 2 years. Huge value. Saying it doesn't work is nonsense.
Parking lot summon, self parking. Of limited utility, but come in handy at times.
Street AP with automatic lane changes on blinker request, no disengaging AP. Stop sign and lights handling, manual "go". I use this every day. Of course it works.
By year end, Street level NOA to match Freeway NOA. There have been 3 updates in the last 10 days, it's working and the neural net is refining at an exponential rate, very fast now. Look at the early beta clips.
It's not about some distant future. These assists are huge, and don't have to be "level 5" to have huge value right now.
If you're a "manual" fan and you drive better than anybody, you don't care. If it's too expensive for you, I understand. If you prefer a bigger battery, fine. There's an ocean of superchargers here, I don't need a huge battery or 2 motors. If you demand a "robotaxi", this ain't it. But don't BS about how it has no value, it doesn't work, or it's not going to work for years, 'cause people can be using these assists to advantage right now.
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Given the amount of hate people have for Tesla being a "rich person's vehicle", you can bet your ass that your seats will be slashed to hell by knives. The passenger camera can't see what the people in the rear seats are doing. And once the vehicle picks up more than 2 people who sat in the back, you can't show who did the damage.
Huge difference between chaperoning a group of drunk idiots and giving them access to your car unsupervised.
I think we will see real robotaxies looking more like subway interiors. Easier to wash out the vomit, and limit damage.
Freeway NoAP does not work for me. And I really wanted it to.
I am huge fan of AP: easily 90-95% of the 20K+ miles on my car have been on AP. I took, advantage of the EAP sale in September and was really looking forward to the added capability. But despite trying every setting option, it just does not work for me. Most of my driving right now is my 22.3 (one way) daily commute.
- I accept that I am able to negotiate to the HOV lane quicker than NoAP - I am okay with that
- The first two freeway transitions, regular AP was able to negotiate without my intervention
- The third one it is inconsistent: the most common issue is the car frequently requiring lane change confirmation more than half the time, despite the settings and despite my making a conscientious effort to give the wheel a nudge right before the attempt. Failure rate: about 50%
- For the fourth, it want's to get out of the HOV lane and use the non-HOV transition. I've even tried disabling NoAP and re-engaging at the last possible second for it to do any good, but it will attempt to cross a double-yellow line and then six lanes of traffic in less than a quarter mile. Failure rate: 100%
- For the trip home, I quickly get into the HOV lane. No matter where/how I engage NoAP (normal, auto-start; disengage NoAP and set regular AP once in HOV lane, then engage NoAP, etc.), it will attempt to cross 7 lanes of traffic in as little as 500 feet to get to the non-HOV transition.
- The next transition is the only one that NoAP works correctly and does something that regular AP can't already handle. Success rate 100%
- The next transition works okay, but regular AP can handle. BUT, after the transition is complete, it wants to immediately get out of the HOV lane. This particular transition has a very long solid white line and my car will drive with the turn-signal on for about a half mile (if I let it). THEN, (when I let it make the lane change), it IMMEDIATELY goers back into the HOV lane. All of this is completely regardless of what other vehicles are around. Failure rate 100%
- The last freeway interchange, regular AP was able to negotiate without my intervention
So, with NoAP arguably being the #1 selling point of FSD (and EAP), I have no problem saying that it doesn't not work: based on my example, I am only seeing a 12.5% success rate and that is, to any reasonable person, a failure.
Now, surprisingly, I find myself using dumb summon every morning and every night to park my car in the garage. It is a tight fit and while I can park and get out (I did it for over a year with my Tesla and for 19 years before that with other cars), I enjoy the convenience of getting in and out of my car outside of the garage. And I also appreciate using the lane-change feature - this greatly improves my music listening experience while driving
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Your post was spot on -- thanks.
I also share your anxiety when it comes to lane changes in heavy traffic. It is actually the main reason I am thinking about FSD at all, but I don't want AP or FSD in city driving, I just want lane changing assist in city driving.
Is that possible ?
boiler81
Member
Tesla should offer a veterans discount on FSD this month for vets day. I still don't think it's worth 8k but it doesn't even matter how much off.
I have a thing for companies that do good things for veterans. One of the reasons I even like Tesla is because it's an American company.
I get this good feeling when I see an older guy with a ships hat on parking in lowes veterans parking or eating a free applebee's burger. Sounds sad but it's real. Veterans are mostly invisible until this one day.
I have a thing for companies that do good things for veterans. One of the reasons I even like Tesla is because it's an American company.
I get this good feeling when I see an older guy with a ships hat on parking in lowes veterans parking or eating a free applebee's burger. Sounds sad but it's real. Veterans are mostly invisible until this one day.
Fernand
Active Member
Not a la carte for now.
But honestly who knows what you'll like down the line. I started out panicked at NOA and thinking I'd never use AP in the city. Now I use them all the time - and wouldn't buy a car without them. I'd bet a good portion of the Never Automation crowd will be using autopilots all the time, like everybody, in a few years. So, if that helps, maybe it's not fatal, preferences are circumstantial, not cast in stone.
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Lol I don't have twitter. It should be done though. Or something. I think most car manufacturers offer discounts for vets right now and like every store or business. They all prob still make money and write off the loss as a donation.
I am really glad that they raised the price because now I won't even consider buying it. Previously I was on the fence whether to get it or not and finally I don't have to think about it. No reason to buy it just to never be able to recoup the money when selling/trading in the car.
It's so obvious that it's not worth it because Tesla themselves depreciate it on a lease.
You add it on a lease....in 3 years it's worth only about 50% of what you paid for it. They don't have any confidence in it.
It's so obvious that it's not worth it because Tesla themselves depreciate it on a lease.
You add it on a lease....in 3 years it's worth only about 50% of what you paid for it. They don't have any confidence in it.
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