200,000th US Delivery

[Zaxxon]

With this information in hand Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard how many cars are left to be delivered in US in June before 200K threshold is passed?

I'm sure @Troy or another hardcore tracker will chime in. But here's my thoughts:

-We were over 180k after Q1. Possibly about 182k.
-InsideEvs estimates April/May at 10,125 Model 3s, 2,770 Ss, and 2,475 Xs in the US. That totals 15,370 and brings the total to 195k-197k entering June.
-Given that, June would have to total under 3,000-5,000 in the US across all three models to avoid hitting 200k deliveries.
-Past history suggests that even with zero Model 3s, the S/X US volume would exceed 3,000 and possibly 5,000.
-200k will therefore be hit in June (as I predicted, woo!) unless Tesla grinds US deliveries to a virtual halt in June. Which is possible, but I still think it's unlikely.

Usual disclaimer that I could be totally wrong on any/all above points.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

With this information in hand Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard how many cars are left to be delivered in US in June before 200K threshold is passed?

This is 2018.
Who's going to build the Countdown Ticker web page?

 

[Zaxxon]

I should also mention that there's always the chance that InsideEVs numbers are significantly off to the high side, in which case hitting 200k after June 30th becomes much less problematic. If, say, only 4,000 3s were delivered in May vs their 6,250 estimate, that's another 2k+ vehicles to work with in June. I don't think this is particularly likely, but wanted to circle back and mention it just to be circumspect.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm sure @Troy or another hardcore tracker will chime in. But here's my thoughts:

-We were over 180k after Q1. Possibly about 182k.
-InsideEvs estimates April/May at 10,125 Model 3s, 2,770 Ss, and 2,475 Xs in the US. That totals 15,370 and brings the total to 195k-197k entering June.
-Given that, June would have to total under 3,000-5,000 in the US across all three models to avoid hitting 200k deliveries.
-Past history suggests that even with zero Model 3s, the S/X US volume would exceed 3,000 and possibly 5,000.
-200k will therefore be hit in June (as I predicted, woo!) unless Tesla grinds US deliveries to a virtual halt in June. Which is possible, but I still think it's unlikely.

Usual disclaimer that I could be totally wrong on any/all above points.

I think it's very close. I have 179k delivered in US up till Q1, plus 15k in Apr/May puts us at 194k. Tesla said in Q1 conf call that they will even out the geographic distribution of deliveries, I interpret this to mean that there will be no push to deliver more in US in the last month of each quarter. Assuming June MS/X delivery to be the same as May, 3k, then this gives them room to deliver 3k M3 in the US in June to stay under 200k. Right now they're producing 3.5k/wk, or ~15k/mo. I think it's possible for them to deliver 3k in US, 5k in Canada, and stash 7k in "transit" (on top of the rolling 1-1.5wks of most recent production) at the end of June to stay under 200k.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I should also mention that there's always the chance that InsideEVs numbers are significantly off to the high side, in which case hitting 200k after June 30th becomes much less problematic. If, say, only 4,000 3s were delivered in May vs their 6,250 estimate, that's another 2k+ vehicles to work with in June. I don't think this is particularly likely, but wanted to circle back and mention it just to be circumspect.

InsideEV tend always to be very conservative in their estimate. I don't remember anyone ever saying that their #s are too high.

 

[Zaxxon]

InsideEV tend always to be very conservative in their estimate. I don't remember anyone ever saying that their #s are too high.

I agree. Just pointing it out, as it is a possibility.

 

[oneday]

Well Q2 is now in the books. Any news in this space??? Really hoping logistics “challenges” led to the 200,000 delivery not making it until Q3

 

[Mobius484]

It seems like it will be really close. I am interested.

 

[wdolson]

I'm sure when Tesla makes an announcement about it, it will show up here very soon after.

I hope there were no screw ups and they hit 200K this week.

 

[gora321]

I hope that they hit 200k on Sunday

 

[Seesaw]

I think they will hit it this Wednesday, gives them a few days buffer to be on the safe side.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Based on the delivery report I think they've stayed under 200k, a little tweaking to deliver a few more MS/X outside of US, and ~ 5k M3 to Canada should do the trick.

 

[thx1139]

I have to think they didnt hit 200K until this week. I ordered our Model 3 yesterday and the site still is using the $7500 tax credit. My estimated delivery is Oct - Dec. So unless they are allowing the sales site to deliberately deceive people if you order soon you still will get the full tax credit.

 

[wdolson]

Inside EVs thinks Tesla went over 200K in June:
Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Deliveries in June

 

[Waiting4M3]

Inside EVs thinks Tesla went over 200K in June:
Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Deliveries in June

I think they could be proven wrong within the week if Tesla announces 200k as it happens.

 

[Big Earl]

Inside EVs thinks Tesla went over 200K in June:
Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Deliveries in June

Their out is that they didn’t account for stockpiling. Based on numerous reports here, I think it’s obvious that Tesla was aggressively stockpiling vehicles in June.

Their Canadian estimate also seems low compared to reports here on TMC.

 

[dhanson865]

Inside EVs thinks Tesla went over 200K in June:
Why We Believe Tesla Passed 200k U.S. Deliveries in June

The headline might say that but the body sounds like, we want this, but can't prove it, so we are waiting to see.

Not a single definitive statement anywhere in the article. Constantly sentence/fragment 1 saying we usually go by X, and sentence/fragment 2 but we aren't sure this time.

 

[jkirkwood001]

It would just seem to me to be completely amateurish if they missed this threshold by a few thousand. I cannot believe Tesla's sales & production analysts would be so incompetent.

 

[wdolson]

It would just seem to me to be completely amateurish if they missed this threshold by a few thousand. I cannot believe Tesla's sales & production analysts would be so incompetent.

Agreed. It would feed the FUD trolls if they did miss.

The headline might say that but the body sounds like, we want this, but can't prove it, so we are waiting to see.

Not a single definitive statement anywhere in the article. Constantly sentence/fragment 1 saying we usually go by X, and sentence/fragment 2 but we aren't sure this time.

Yes, they were vague. I only scanned the article, but nothing definitive jumped out to me.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Delaying 200k US delivery to Q3 directly impacts the M3 ASP they can achieve in Q4, and GAAP profit and positive cash flow. The difference of $7500 credits vs $3750 credits, multiplied by at least 60k cars that they will sell in Q4, equals $225m that their customers will potentially be willing to spend in Q4. That cash comes at the most critical time as they need to start building China GF, manage big debt conversion/payment in Q1 2019, and start ramping MY in 2019, all before the M3 can truly hit its stride at 10k/wk in 2019. Besides reaching 5k/wk M3 in June/E, I think putting the 200k threshold into Q3 as the next biggest single thing that Tesla has to nail. No way Tesla fails this.