200,000th US Delivery

[SteveG3]

On the topic of Tesla and 200,000 the current insideevs scrorecard totals are:

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

Jan 2018 was ~3400
Feb 2018 was ~4500

Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?

Mar 2018 will be ~6000
April 2018 will be ~7000
May 2018 will be ~8000
June 2018 will be ~9000
July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.

Q3 2018 Full credit still
Q4 2018 Full credit still
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 50% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 25% of full amount
Q1 2020 no credit

To do that they can't sell more than 30,500 or so in the US between March 1 and June 30. Then they can open the flood gates on Jul 1 with no reason to hesitate or focus on Canadian or European shipments. Any thing they make over 30,500 in that time they need to sell outside the US.

In a nice scenario they make 45,000 or so in those 4 months and sell the excess 15,000 or so to Canadian customers. Maybe they switch over to Canadian car production for a couple of weeks in June and then switch back to US and stock pile a couple of weeks worth for July delivery.

If somehow they make more than US and Canada need in those 4 months they have to pick a 3rd country to start sending cars to. I doubt it comes to that. Surely there are enough Canadian reservations to absorb any overflow for a few months.

Thanks for posting this. Pretty sure InsideEVs is overstating the number of deliveries counted toward the 200,000 total by about 1,000.

Just on my phone now and don’t have time to find the exact details, but, the real tally does not include all the Roadsters. I don’t remember the exact date the count for the tax credit program starts, but I think it was about end of 2010. That’s why I estimate the InsideEVs number is about 1,000 too high.

 

[Reciprocity]

2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

Jan 2018 was ~3400
Feb 2018 was ~4500

Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?

Mar 2018 will be ~6000
April 2018 will be ~7000
May 2018 will be ~8000
June 2018 will be ~9000
July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.

In general, I agree that its totally possible but part of your model is not exactly how I would model it. I understand that you where going for simplicity, but you could still keep it simple and add a tiny bit more accurate info.

Tesla tends to deliver few cars in the US early in the first 2 months of the quarter with a lot more deliveries in the third month at end of a quarter. This is because they manufacture cars for delivery as far away as possible and then work closer to Fremont as the quarter marches on. Determining how many cars need to be deferred is weighted much heavier in March and June. They really do not have to defer any S/X the other months because the deliveries are already very light. Using this as a reference:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Jan 2018 was ~1500 S/X
Feb 2018 was ~2000 S/X

Assume:

2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
Mar 2018 will be ~4000 Model 3s (WAG)
Mar 2018 will be ~6200 S/X (Same as last year)
Apr 2018 will be ~1500 S/X (Same as Jan'18)
May 2018 will be ~2000 S/X (Same as Feb'18)
June 2018 will be ~4550 S/X (Same as last year)
ads up to 187,681

This would only leave room for less then ~13000 model 3s for the entire 2nd quarter for the US assuming no real shift of S/X to Europe/China or anywhere outside the US.

Assuming an average of 2k/w Model 3 production (13 x 2,000 or 26,000), they could deliver half in the US and half in Canada. If they can shift some of those S/X, they could deliver even more in the US and not go over until July 1st.

Based on this analysis, only 13,681 model 3s from the second quarter would need to be deferred to Canada. The problem with this is that there are not 13,000+ reservation holders in Canada that only want the first production cars. Its not really possible. If we assume 500,000 total reservations, half in the US would leave only about 10% of the US amount in Canada or 25,000ish. To get 13000+ orders from Canada, they will need dual motor at the very least and probably other interior options, including the cheapest version.

Now this does not assume any Model S/X are shifted over seas. Those could be cut in half as well and then you would have less Model 3s that need to be shipped to Canada. But half would only be another (750+1000+2225 = 3975) for the entire quarter. That would make it a bit easier to find 9000 reservation holders in CA in Q2. This assumes a lot of course and there could also be a small buffer in March as this plan could have been hatched before the start of the month. If you recall that 2 ships where leaving for China and a bunch of vehicles showed up at some new huge delivery center in Norway or the Netherlands or some place like that. The other assumption is only 2k/w average model 3 production. That would much lower then I think people are expecting. With a high average of 3,000/w, you would need to find 26,000 - 4,000 reservation holders in Canada. That would nearly be every Canadian reservation holder. Which is HIGHLY unlikely even with P versions and smaller battery added. So the more vehicles Tesla produces, the worst the chances of pulling off the Canadian 2 step are. If Tesla is only averaging 2k/w next quarter, we are going to have bigger problems then losing a tax credit a quarter early.

 

[dhanson865]

The problem with this is that there are not 13,000+ reservation holders in Canada that only want the first production cars. Its not really possible. If we assume 500,000 total reservations, half in the US would leave only about 10% of the US amount in Canada or 25,000ish. To get 13000+ orders from Canada, they will need dual motor at the very least and probably other interior options, including the cheapest version.

Do you have a source for Canadian reservation numbers? Is 10-15 thousand really too much for Canada to absorb?

I'm assuming some Dual motor aka AWD Model 3 will be in that June push to cover that angle.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Do you have a source for Canadian reservation numbers? Is 10-15 thousand really too much for Canada to absorb?

I'm assuming some Dual motor aka AWD Model 3 will be in that June push to cover that angle.

I noticed that AWD is slated for mid 2018 for Canada as well. It's possible they could get AWD in volume before the US.

 

[TaoJones]

Does it matter if they hit it on Day 1 or Day 45 of Q3?

I voted July, I think they're doing everything possible (Canada) for this.

In July they plan to have 5k/week production which means even more Americans will get the full credit. And if Europe is now scheduled for 2019 it means that pretty much all production will go to the US for the full tax credit, maybe with a Canadian delivery here and there. And SP should be much higher at that point which for many also means better budgets. Win win win.

You Americans should be super happy about this

Well, sure - it matters in that 45 days = 6 weeks = 30K more cars that qualify using your/their production metric above. The closer they get to crossing the threshold on/to/at Day 1 of whichever quarter, the better.

It's not like they haven't had time to plan this - from an efficiency/one shot at getting it right standpoint, I'd hope they'd nail the exact day.

Conversely, if they cross the threshold on the last day of the quarter (unlikely), customers would miss out upon 60K cars' worth of tax credits.

The new wrinkle is the scuttlebutt about the tax credit getting extended - I am not holding my breath, since it's clearly an idea that would make a huge amount of sense. It benefits Tesla by lowering the bar for new owners who would otherwise consider an inferior product from an inferior manufacturer. I don't buy the counter-argument in the least.

Time will tell. I've been paying more attention to State-level incentives - especially now that California has once again screwed the pooch by adding onerous restrictions to their giving with the one hand ($2,500 rebate) while taking away with the other (see 30% increase in vehicle registration costs - mine went *up* from $7xx to $1,000 from last year to this year. It's just absurd. What they should have done is raise taxes/fees disproportionately for fossil-fuel burners and heavier vehicles (noting that yes, Teslas would bear some brunt here but at least it would be fair - despite every municipal garbage truck getting exempted) that do more damage across the board. But no. Lazy politicians are not in short supply anywhere it seems.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Great work by @Waiting4M3 today pulling together and analyzing recent surge in invites, which I think may change some minds here about Tesla pushing back 200,000th delivery to July.

 

[Reciprocity]

Do you have a source for Canadian reservation numbers? Is 10-15 thousand really too much for Canada to absorb?

I'm assuming some Dual motor aka AWD Model 3 will be in that June push to cover that angle.

LoL, I documented my source right there.. 500,000 reservations, right half are US.. the US has 10x the population of Canada. So 250,000 / 10 = 25,000. So I'm other words.. Wild ass guess is my source. The point being that Canada cannot absorb the production if the ramp to 5k in fact is occurring. If Production only gets to 2k/w entering April and only improves to 5k at the very end of the quarter, then maybe. But again, that's not likely or a great scenario for the company as a whole. Even then, Tesla would probably need dual motor again available soon.

 

[Electroman]

It doesn’t matter if it’s day one or later in the quarter.

The problem with trying to time it so fine on the first day of the quarter is - what happens if their calculations were off and the the 200k'th car ended up one day before on the last day of previous quarter?

So you got to give yourself some buffer and math counting errors, and time it to around 15 days into the quarter, to be on the safe side.

 

[30seconds]

Could they start shipping to Norway?

 

[RobStark]

Could they start shipping to Norway?

I would imagine 90% plus of Norwegians want dual motor AWD.

I wonder if there is a temperate country with enough reservations?

South Korea? Spain? Italy?

 

[Reciprocity]

I would imagine 90% plus of Norwegians want dual motor AWD.

I wonder if there is a temperate country with enough reservations?

South Korea? Spain? Italy?

With this new Canada situation, I would assume awd is very close. Can't be more then 5000 that want long range pup in Canada given the US take rate.

If they did that and opened up Norway, they would need to do it sooner then later to get them manufactured and shipped. Don't they need to have a stop in tilberg as well?

Canada could just be about running out of people in the US that want the first production cars.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I would imagine 90% plus of Norwegians want dual motor AWD.

I wonder if there is a temperate country with enough reservations?

South Korea? Spain? Italy?

Neither Spain nor Italy will have thousands of Model 3 LR+PUP RWD reservations: infrastructure isn't there to generate/sustain demand, yet.

Flurry of invites & vin assignments... Tesla may be going for April. Canada invites may just be the next step, not necessarily gaming 200,000th.

 

[mongo]

Neither Spain nor Italy will have thousands of Model 3 LR+PUP RWD reservations: infrastructure isn't there to generate/sustain demand, yet.

Flurry of invites & vin assignments... Tesla may be going for April. Canada invites may just be the next step, not necessarily gaming 200,000th.

Optimistic view: pack production has outpaced front drive unit production and Tesla needs to move RWD versions ASAP.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

With this new Canada situation, I would assume awd is very close. Can't be more then 5000 that want long range pup in Canada given the US take rate.

If they did that and opened up Norway, they would need to do it sooner then later to get them manufactured and shipped. Don't they need to have a stop in tilberg as well?

Canada could just be about running out of people in the US that want the first production cars.

If anything, Canada would be about getting sales in before significant electoral changes that would affect rebates. But if they're sending cars to Canada anyway, it would make sense to try to use it to extend the tax credit cliff by 1 quarter. There's significant profit to be made by doing so since their production should be both higher and more efficient at that point and it's more likely that AWD and performance would be available.

 

[sweter]

If they did that and opened up Norway, they would need to do it sooner then later to get them manufactured and shipped. Don't they need to have a stop in tilberg as well?

Not for Norway I think, since it's not in the EU. But they would need to solve charging which at this point might be unnecessary effort/investment?

 

[postpast]

In general, I agree that its totally possible but part of your model is not exactly how I would model it. I understand that you where going for simplicity, but you could still keep it simple and add a tiny bit more accurate info.

Tesla tends to deliver few cars in the US early in the first 2 months of the quarter with a lot more deliveries in the third month at end of a quarter. This is because they manufacture cars for delivery as far away as possible and then work closer to Fremont as the quarter marches on. Determining how many cars need to be deferred is weighted much heavier in March and June. They really do not have to defer any S/X the other months because the deliveries are already very light. Using this as a reference:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Jan 2018 was ~1500 S/X
Feb 2018 was ~2000 S/X

Assume:

2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
Mar 2018 will be ~4000 Model 3s (WAG)
Mar 2018 will be ~6200 S/X (Same as last year)
Apr 2018 will be ~1500 S/X (Same as Jan'18)
May 2018 will be ~2000 S/X (Same as Feb'18)
June 2018 will be ~4550 S/X (Same as last year)
ads up to 187,681

This would only leave room for less then ~13000 model 3s for the entire 2nd quarter for the US assuming no real shift of S/X to Europe/China or anywhere outside the US.

Assuming an average of 2k/w Model 3 production (13 x 2,000 or 26,000), they could deliver half in the US and half in Canada. If they can shift some of those S/X, they could deliver even more in the US and not go over until July 1st.

Based on this analysis, only 13,681 model 3s from the second quarter would need to be deferred to Canada. The problem with this is that there are not 13,000+ reservation holders in Canada that only want the first production cars. Its not really possible. If we assume 500,000 total reservations, half in the US would leave only about 10% of the US amount in Canada or 25,000ish. To get 13000+ orders from Canada, they will need dual motor at the very least and probably other interior options, including the cheapest version.

Now this does not assume any Model S/X are shifted over seas. Those could be cut in half as well and then you would have less Model 3s that need to be shipped to Canada. But half would only be another (750+1000+2225 = 3975) for the entire quarter. That would make it a bit easier to find 9000 reservation holders in CA in Q2. This assumes a lot of course and there could also be a small buffer in March as this plan could have been hatched before the start of the month. If you recall that 2 ships where leaving for China and a bunch of vehicles showed up at some new huge delivery center in Norway or the Netherlands or some place like that. The other assumption is only 2k/w average model 3 production. That would much lower then I think people are expecting. With a high average of 3,000/w, you would need to find 26,000 - 4,000 reservation holders in Canada. That would nearly be every Canadian reservation holder. Which is HIGHLY unlikely even with P versions and smaller battery added. So the more vehicles Tesla produces, the worst the chances of pulling off the Canadian 2 step are. If Tesla is only averaging 2k/w next quarter, we are going to have bigger problems then losing a tax credit a quarter early.

An even simpler way to look at it.

2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

From this we can see that they made just over 47,000 model S and X for the American market in both of the last two years. If they keep the production the same they will be at over 185,000 vehicles by end of Q2 this year without accounting for any Model 3 from this year.
(47,0000/ 2) + 161,500 = 185,000

This would mean that they would have to produce less than 15,000 Model 3 for the American market in Q1 & Q2. This would be an average build rate of 550 per week. 26/ 15000

They could push some Model 3's to Canada and some more Model 3 and X to international markets, but I just don't see them not getting to 200,000 before end of Q2. if X & S sales are the same as last two years and they average 900 model 3 per week in Q1 then they would have to sell less than 2500 Model 3's in Q2 in the US
(900 * 13) + 161,500 + (47,0000/ 2) = 197,500

 

[schonelucht]

I would imagine 90% plus of Norwegians want dual motor AWD.

I wonder if there is a temperate country with enough reservations?

South Korea? Spain? Italy?

Spain and Italy need to go through Tilburg which isn’t yet ready to assemble Model 3. Also EU type approval AFAIK is still missing. Finally with shipping the way it is they need to send them over in basically the next 4 weeks. It’s going to be US and Canada this quarter.

Unless there is a dramatic breakdown in American demand (for example due to continued delays on the SR version) we won’t see the Model 3 in Europe before 2019.

 

[wdolson]

I crunched the numbers on Inside EVs and put the totals through Februrary into one chart:

The Race to 200K

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla already invited all Canadian owners and all first day Canada reservers (owners and non-owners). In fact some Canadian day 2 non owners already got an invite. Seems like there is a big push to deliver in Canada this quarter. But will it be enough?'

Currently we have 50 or so invites to configure from Canada. How many deliveries correspond to registered invites? Let's compare with the registered US invites we know off. In the months Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb we registered 1150 invites. Deliveries from those will end up being maybe 10k of cars? Let's be generous and say 11500 cars. That's 1/10. Applying the same logic to the 50 Canadian registered invites we get to 500 deliveries. That's way not enough. Is there some bias in the numbers that could make it work?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla already invited all Canadian owners and all first day Canada reservers (owners and non-owners). In fact some Canadian day 2 non owners already got an invite. Seems like there is a big push to deliver in Canada this quarter. But will it be enough?'

Currently we have 50 or so invites to configure from Canada. How many deliveries correspond to registered invites? Let's compare with the registered US invites we know off. In the months Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb we registered 1150 invites. Deliveries from those will end up being maybe 10k of cars? Let's be generous and say 11500 cars. That's 1/10. Applying the same logic to the 50 Canadian registered invites we get to 500 deliveries. That's way not enough. Is there some bias in the numbers that could make it work?

What do you think? Tesla also sent out a big batch of invites across the US last week, so is it even possible to push it out to July anymore?