2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[MitchJi]

Do you have a link to the more current interview? Or maybe I missed the freebie... couldn't find it...

PRO Talks: Valuation expert Damodaran on why underperforming value investors are ‘lazy’
PRO Talks: Valuation expert Damodaran on why underperforming value investors are ‘lazy’

Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran shares his views on investing and analyzing companies in an exclusive interview for CNBC PRO with Mike Santoli. 


On value investors and their recent underperformance: "Many of the old time value investors I talk to stopped reading after they read Security Analysis in the 1950s," Damodaran said. "A lot of value investing has become lazy. It's running screens. Screens based on what's worked in the past. Trust in mean reversion and those old screens. Unfortunately everybody can run those screens today in milliseconds."

On why you don't have to be perfect in valuing companies: "You don't have to be right to make money. You just have to be less wrong than everybody else. As long as you think about that it takes a load off your shoulders because you don't have to be right," he said.

Damodaran is professor of finance at the New York University Stern School of Business. He is widely regarded as the foremost expert in valuing companies and is often referred to as Wall Street's "dean of valuation."

He also discusses:

• Amazon's valuation story.
• Uber's next move.
• Digital currencies replacing gold.
• Tesla and Elon Musk.

The interview is exclusively for CNBC PRO subscribers.

Subscribe for PRO

 

[bdy0627]

For anyone new that has never encountered Jason: A good read about where AP 1 could be

AP2.0 Cameras: Capabilities and Limitations?

Just read the last page of that thread. I didn't realize just how much trouble Tesla is having with AP2.0. It has been out now for about 8 months and still is not as reliable as AP1. Musk recently reiterated the plan for FSD coast to coast in December. How in the world does AP2 get from where it is now to FSD in 5 months? Remember, back in November 2016, Musk said it would rapidly be better than AP1 starting around February 2017 if I remember correctly. The timeline for it to be better than AP1 has gone from 3 months to 8+ months, and it's still not there yet. It is wayyyyy behind at this point.

 

[Drumheller]

Just read the last page of that thread. I didn't realize just how much trouble Tesla is having with AP2.0. It has been out now for about 8 months and still is not as reliable as AP1. Musk recently reiterated the plan for FSD coast to coast in December. How in the world does AP2 get from where it is now to FSD in 5 months? Remember, back in November 2016, Musk said it would rapidly be better than AP1 starting around February 2017 if I remember correctly. The timeline for it to be better than AP1 has gone from 3 months to 8+ months, and it's still not there yet. It is wayyyyy behind at this point.

It's a complex software problem. Very complex. My background is software dev. I was skeptical of the claims of AP2 getting up to parity that fast. I remain very skeptical that Level 4 or 5 is going to happen anytime soon. It will get there, but I suspect it's going to take years longer than people think right now.

 

[bdy0627]

Judging by how Roombas work, I doubt iRobot co-founder understands AI.

Maybe the AI of these robot vacuums is so advanced that they aren't really just getting "stuck" under your couch or chair. Maybe they actually don't want to vacuum our floors...

 

[Drumheller]

Maybe the AI of these robot vacuums is so advanced that they aren't really just getting "stuck" under your couch or chair. Maybe they actually don't want to vacuum our floors...

and decide that level of existence is far too bleak, so off the edge of the stairs they go.

 

[Chickenlittle]

It's a complex software problem. Very complex. My background is software dev. I was skeptical of the claims of AP2 getting up to parity that fast. I remain very skeptical that Level 4 or 5 is going to happen anytime soon. It will get there, but I suspect it's going to take years longer than people think right now.

My background molecular biochemistry and I was extremely skeptical of sequencing human genome in 1980 now only extremely embarrassed to have thought that back then

 

[MitchJi]

Nico Rosberg on Twitter

Anyone want to guess what Nico Rosberg, F1 2016 champion had to do at Tesla?

Buying a Tesla ?!

 

[Intl Professor]

Their savant aspect will mean that they are *capable* of causing disaster, and the idiot aspect will mean that they won't *realize* that they're causing disaster.

I think we just elected one.

 

[Drumheller]

My background molecular biochemistry and I was extremely skeptical of sequencing human genome in 1980 now only extremely embarrassed to have thought that back then

I would very much like to be wrong on this one.

 

[DurandalAI]

Just read the last page of that thread. I didn't realize just how much trouble Tesla is having with AP2.0. It has been out now for about 8 months and still is not as reliable as AP1. Musk recently reiterated the plan for FSD coast to coast in December. How in the world does AP2 get from where it is now to FSD in 5 months? Remember, back in November 2016, Musk said it would rapidly be better than AP1 starting around February 2017 if I remember correctly. The timeline for it to be better than AP1 has gone from 3 months to 8+ months, and it's still not there yet. It is wayyyyy behind at this point.

After reading multiple forum posts about AP2 behavior and finally experiencing it after a test drive of a Model X, I have a theory that:

AP2 as is currently deployed is developed around reproducing AP1 functionality in terms of how it works, not utilizing high resolution maps, not using all of the cameras, etc.. It's just trying to do what AP1 was doing.
FSD development is going concurrently alongside current AP2 development. It's probably using the machine learning algos instead of the more simple logic that AP1 used that AP2 is trying to replicate. Until it's surpassed the functionality of AP2 in terms of consistency and safety, AP2 and FSD will have concurrent development. Anyhow, that's my theory based upon what I've read on the operation of AP2 and review of the FSD video they did a number of months back.

 

[MitchJi]

I believe its the overheating that is the issue - perhaps range also for the longer runs. I mean, a P100D at WOT is pulling down ~500kW. a 100kWh battery will only do that for about 1/5th of an hour and thats if you ignore the problems like voltage sag once you drop below ~70%.

A better strategy would be to use cells that are optimized for more power, except that would exacerbate the range problem.

 

[larmor]

Maybe the AI of these robot vacuums is so advanced that they aren't really just getting "stuck" under your couch or chair. Maybe they actually don't want to vacuum our floors...

My robot vacuum from Xiaomi is far more advanced than a roomba, and maps the room(s) dynamically, sends updates by the app, and returns to base to charge itself and then resume....

 

[Alketi]

How Tesla killers advertise their cars.

From this article:
Is General Motors Recreating The Saturn Disaster With The Chevy Bolt? (CleanTechnica Original)

I checked. It's real. Actual dealership: Vehicle at Courtesy Chevrolet in Phoenix

You can't make this stuff up.

 

[MitchJi]

I know some here have Jan 2018 options, but those are too short-term for me. I'm positive on Model 3, as many here are, but I'd rather "place my bets" on that the significantproduction ramp up and bottom-line profitability (which is what really is needed for shorts to give up) will be achieved by Jan 2019 rather than by Jan 2018. Also note that themajority of my position still is in stock rather than options.

I believe that March 2018 options become available this week. I'm considering replacing our J19's with similar amounts and strike prices of March options. I would be taking about half our cash off the table. If they aren't green by December or January I'd have more than enough money leftover to roll them to June18's.

Thanks for your help!

 

[winfield100]

I'm about done.

Please do so, vague maturity is difficult with a prepubescent brain, and learn basic geography,
Thank you

 

[bdy0627]

After reading multiple forum posts about AP2 behavior and finally experiencing it after a test drive of a Model X, I have a theory that:

AP2 as is currently deployed is developed around reproducing AP1 functionality in terms of how it works, not utilizing high resolution maps, not using all of the cameras, etc.. It's just trying to do what AP1 was doing.
FSD development is going concurrently alongside current AP2 development. It's probably using the machine learning algos instead of the more simple logic that AP1 used that AP2 is trying to replicate. Until it's surpassed the functionality of AP2 in terms of consistency and safety, AP2 and FSD will have concurrent development. Anyhow, that's my theory based upon what I've read on the operation of AP2 and review of the FSD video they did a number of months back.

I so hope you're right

 

[scaesare]

How Tesla killers advertise their cars.

From this article:
Is General Motors Recreating The Saturn Disaster With The Chevy Bolt? (CleanTechnica Original)

I checked. It's real. Actual dealership: Vehicle at Courtesy Chevrolet in Phoenix

You can't make this stuff up.

Man that thing looks bug-like from that angle.

 

[RobStark]

If we ever get AI which is truly capable of generalist thinking, they would probably be benevolent like the ones in Asimov's later robot stories.

 

[tander]

Just read the last page of that thread. I didn't realize just how much trouble Tesla is having with AP2.0. It has been out now for about 8 months and still is not as reliable as AP1. Musk recently reiterated the plan for FSD coast to coast in December. How in the world does AP2 get from where it is now to FSD in 5 months? Remember, back in November 2016, Musk said it would rapidly be better than AP1 starting around February 2017 if I remember correctly. The timeline for it to be better than AP1 has gone from 3 months to 8+ months, and it's still not there yet. It is wayyyyy behind at this point.

Isn't the idea that they are quietly building the data bank in the background with every mile driven, running simulations and basically getting it as perfect as possible until they can reliably say it's better than a person, and only then it will go live in the cars? My understanding is they are basically just doing that and keeping things quiet until it is ready to drop, which was supposed to be at around 6B miles, which they should hit by the end of the year. The main goal I think is they have to be able to demonstrate (with irrefutable data) it's 2-10x safer than a person before letting it go live. I imagine they could release it now and it would do pretty well but for liability reasons they have to wait till it's really solid.

I believe that March 2018 options become available this week. I'm considering replacing our J19's with similar amounts and strike prices of March options. I would be taking about half our cash off the table. If they aren't green by December or January I'd have more than enough money leftover to roll them to June18's.

Thanks for your help!

Those seem like a good sweet spot because if all goes well by then all of this up in the air stuff (m3, autopilot, roof panels, gigafactories...) should be pretty much up and running and showing results, not to mention m3 should be throwing down some major revenue by then and pretty good margins. Only downside imo is macro stuff and q4 m3 margins might not be very impressive and there probably won't be an update for that until after q1 reports in May?. I'm guessing m3 margins will get better much faster than s or x, but they still might need a quarter or two of full production to get things really streamlined. But who knows, they might be really good right from the start, that's what m3 is designed for after-all.

 

[LoL Rick]

How Tesla killers advertise their cars.

From this article:
Is General Motors Recreating The Saturn Disaster With The Chevy Bolt? (CleanTechnica Original)

I checked. It's real. Actual dealership: Vehicle at Courtesy Chevrolet in Phoenix

You can't make this stuff up.

Indeed they do.