They sacrificed top speed. Max 130-140 mph. And acceleration is merely *okay*, for being Tesla. (And a much lighter car.)
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stef
Member
I thought production hell was a given. In fact, it just confirms they will do everything and more to get to the target rate as quickly as they can. I would have worried otherwise.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) The same motor can't be very efficient at 20 mph as 140 mph.
2) There can be any number of reasons why Tesla limited top speed to 140 mph. Like they limited Model S to 155 mph because energy consumptions is just too high(creating too short a range and necessity to stop and recharge negating the time savings of high speed travel) and high heat created for extended runs putting car into limp mode.
It's a bit more complicated. The AC induction motor is not very efficient at high torque situations and very efficient at low torque. The PMAC motors are much more efficient at high torque, but less efficient at low torque, and less efficient at high rpm. Therefore, Tesla's motors are well suited for highway travel and for city driving, the driver can choose to use up a lot more energy for fun or drive much more sedately for much better efficiency.
Interesting, I never knew this. I always thought all electric motors operated best at high torque. I think top speed has always been lowest priority at Tesla. The engineering and trade offs would just not be worth it.
As an aside, you said AC induction motor is less efficient at low torque, is that also true that peak power is at low torque as opposed to high torque?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
EAP/FSD option prices you noted are likely $1k higher "after delivery."
ASP will likely be ~$55k in 2H17, and more than $45k in 2018. I expect FSD uptake to be high.
This is very positive for the company, assuming they can convert enough reservations to orders and still be sold out through 2018, which is highly likely.
This is EXACTLY the direction I thought the company should and would take; it's the direction that makes most logical sense and Tesla makes logical decisions: keep ASP high, achieve 20% gross margin by 1Q18, use the cash flows to accelerate Model 3 ramp (which they very likely will do in 2018 given the smaller-than-expected model 3 base battery size), accelerate subsequent gigafactory timeline bringing initial phases online by end-19, and fund Semi and Model Y with internal cash flows.
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I have never had a frunk. It looks water proof, if not water tight. Can you fill it with ice and use it as a cooler?
"I expect FSD uptake to be high"
why?... the car comes with all the hardware (in theory)... so then all you need is a software upgrade. why not just wait until it's actually proven and buy it then?
so then I google for 3 seconds on the subject and find this:
Pay for Self-Driving now or later?
what if... they just put hardware in a car that may never be used?
Likely way too soon to speculate, but feel free to be as pessimistic as possible. Could be that with their view of the arc of battery technology, cost, recyclability, etc., that they felt a 10yr warranty more than sufficient for a realistic real-world use. With 500,000 reservations, they don't have to give lifetime warranties or trade-in guarantees anymore, why open up to the liability?
The only things that happened today that matter to me are:
1). The car mag reviews. Not a single negative, and they are all lusting for the car.
2). The ASP is going to be much higher than I anticipated, giving me more confidence on their margins.
Everything else is chatter.
The stock price will continue to be volatile, but we are now only a few months away from confirmation that the ramp up of production is happening, and what the margin on the car will be given the ASP. That information, together with more glowing reviews, should be enough to attract serious money to this stock.
1). The car mag reviews. Not a single negative, and they are all lusting for the car.
2). The ASP is going to be much higher than I anticipated, giving me more confidence on their margins.
Everything else is chatter.
The stock price will continue to be volatile, but we are now only a few months away from confirmation that the ramp up of production is happening, and what the margin on the car will be given the ASP. That information, together with more glowing reviews, should be enough to attract serious money to this stock.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
The estimated number of Superchargers by end-2018 has been creeping up since initial Model 3 reveal. This has important implications. If someone can compile the estimates and plot against projected 2018 projection, I'd be grateful. If not, I'll do it later today.
If you keep in mind that Model 3 is supply constrained, and that Tesla continues to anti-sell Model 3, the event makes perfect sense.
You're not missing anything. The only thing I would change is hitting 10k/week by end-Q1. What's needed is 10k/week by end-2Q17 to achieve 500k Model 3's in 2018. Kudos for the insightful observation.
This is an important observation. The KEY difference between bull and bear arguments is Model 3 gross margin. It seems to me that Tesla will beat consensus bottom-line estimates starting in 4Q17 if ramp goes according to plan. Elon may allude to Model 3 gross margin on this week's earnings call.
As a long-term shareholder, I'm very happy with the direction Tesla management chose for 2H17 and 2018.
This post is SPOT ON. Kudos. ASP will be significantly higher than even my estimate! This is positive for long-term shareholders.
Elon & Team proved me conservative once again
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are you suggesting... the higher the ASP the better?... i think you've missed the point and market for this vehicle.
$49K?
It's in the FAQ, first few months only with premium interior ($5k additional option).
Higher ASP is better, as long as people are willing to pay.
I thought the pricing would be lower, and that there then would be less profit to be had, but the pricing seems pretty spot on, for maximizing ASP without putting people off. If they start to struggle with sufficient demand at the end of 2018 or sometime in 2019, they can consider reducing the pricing.
Thanks, had not read them yet.
Will there still be a $35,000 Model 3 option?
Yes. Our first production Model 3 vehicles are preconfigured to ensure a smooth production ramp so that we can deliver more cars to more customers at a faster pace. The beginning configuration is a Long Range Battery with rear-wheel drive and premium upgrades, starting at $49,000. These vehicles come with three options for customization: wheel size, exterior color and Autopilot features.
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