2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[larmor]

Everything I'm reading now is VERY positive on the Model 3 and with a good amount of details. It sounds like a homerun. I'm just scratching my head at the event.

There are a few CVS close by where you get some head and shoulders for the head scratching. In the meantime, the M3 is clearly head and shoulders above any vehicle in its class.

An aside, remember when a model S was seriously compared with an i3? Remember when most shoppers for a 7 series bmw cross shopped with a 3 series? yup i can't seem to remember that last one...

 

[GoTslaGo]

There are a few CVS close by where you get some head and shoulders for the head scratching. In the meantime, the M3 is clearly head and shoulders above any vehicle in its class.

An aside, remember when a model S was seriously compared with an i3? Remember when most shoppers for a 7 series bmw cross shopped with a 3 series? yup i can't seem to remember that last one...

Eek! Can we stick to talking about Inverted Head and Shoulders... (the Chartist in me twitches when I hear the non-inverted term)

Maybe @Drumheller can do some good head scratching upside down.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

It's amazing how fast the Model 3 news spread around the world, even to Bangkok Post: Tesla hands over first Model 3 to early buyers

 

[sundaymorning]

After reading nearly a dozen reviews from differently news outlets, I threw my worries about the drivability and spartan interior out of the window. I am however, worried about the production hell. If it is anything like the same term used for X, it's no good. Only saving grace is the customers going through this hell would be Tesla employee instead of Signature reservation holders.

I think we might be 280 to 390 range bound until next year. Depending on Aug 2 ER reaction, could be seeing sub 300 soon. If so, great opportunity.

I interpret "production hell" as in "be prepared for overtime hell as you've never experienced," in order to get to our 5k per week then 10k per week benchmark. The hell Elon is describing isn't the same quality issues we've seen in the X. He's stated many times that the 3 is a simpler car to build; whereas with the X, he maintains throughout production that it's the "hardest car by far" to build. My worries of an X type production fiasco was thrown out the window with the announcement of 30 vehicle deliveries on opening day compared with 5 for the X hand over ceremony. My guess is that we see 400 by end of year, maybe more if reviews continue to wow. The market simply has no answer to a 310 mile per charge car at 45k. Looks like Audi will need to announce a 320 mile per charge car tomorrow, slated for 2025 production date in order to grab some headlines from being the next Tesla killer.

 

[techmaven]

I am amazed by the actual Model 3 specs, excited by Motor Trend's first drive impressions and tempered by the notable low-ish base range and the strange livestream event. 500k+ reservations is a good number and Musk acknowledging that he is sandbagging production is also great.

The Model 3 has more interior room than the Bolt and matches up well against the BMW 3/4/5 in terms of interior room. It only gives up 1" of shoulder room to the S in the rear seats and 1.4" up front. But the rear head room is 2.4" taller! The base model matches up well against a BMW 330i for less money. And the curb weight of the base model is merely 3,549 lbs compared to the curb weight of the 330i at 3,541. There's only 8 lbs difference. Of course, the Model 3 will have 4 times the MPGe.

I do wonder if the Model 3 has power adjustable seats in the base config? Same thing about heated front seats... is that in the base config?

Definitely there are people reacting badly to the pricing of the options. And those that for some reason though they could get a fully optioned vehicle near $40-45k, which is absurd. The long range battery + premium upgrade package + EAP + non-black paint is $20k. That's much more than people expected. But I think as they sit back and really compare against the competition, they'll find that the Model 3 pricing is actually quite good. It isn't too good, which is great from an investor's point of view.

I do think that Tesla should lower EAP pricing by $1k and offer white as a base "free" color instead of just black. No one really needs the premium upgrade package, but I do hope that as the production ramp is well underway, they can unbundle.

The base battery pack is likely nominally 55 kWh with 53 kWh usable which makes the base battery pack cost somewhere around $8k, or roughly $3.5k less than what GM pays for the Bolt's pack. ASP is likely something like $45-48k, which will help on revenue and margins.

 

[SebastianR]

Are Europeans happy with the width at 72.8"?

4.5 " or 11.43 cm narrower than the Model S. I was guessing 3" narrower.

It seems a big gripe from Europeans was that Tesla vehicles were just too wide for European roads.

A 2017 BMW 3 Series is 71.3" and a 2017 BMW 5 Series is 73.5".

It is great that the car is more narrow than the Model S. However, the Model 3 is still wider than my A4 (not by very much though) and I just dinged my A4 in the very narrow driveway we have

In short: I will try to make it work but that part is still a bit of an issue...

 

[oneday]

If Elon confirmed that they had over 500k reservations, and that if you order a 3 now, you will get it around the end of next year. Doesn't that imply that they are planning on hitting 10k a week much earlier in 2018 than is generally assumed? I haven't modeled it out or anything, but my wild guess is they would have to hit 10k/week around the end of Q1 to be able to hit over 500k cumulative by the end of 2018. Am I missing something?

This is actually the one disappointing thing I got from tonight's presentation. In no uncertain terms Elon mentioned that his goal was to reach 10k week by the end of 2018. So that means there is no way 500k model 3s next year. More like 300-400k which would be incredible, but we need to realize that is still best case scenario.

I saw mention of 500k plus reservations but I just don't believe it. I also think it's irrelevant. However Just the fact they had anyone who wanted to watch the model 3 reveal sign up to reserve a model 3, with no option to sign in via my Tesla, makes me think they are still hoping to add hype by announcing something like 500k + reservations. Maybe all this good press will do it. I don't really understand the point though. It's a pretty inefficient way to raise cash.

Edit: Can someone please provide a link to where 500k + reservations was mentioned. And where the production ramp expectations are being sandbagged.

 

[RobStark]

 

[MartinAustin]

I think the "feels like a spaceship" description isn't too far from the truth. The interior is so bereft of clutter, even compared to Model S - that it seems like auto interiors are undergoing a revolution courtesy of the Model 3. Tesla even found ways to simplify the steering column so there are only two stalks, and no adjustment lever for the steering wheel. (simplified assembly)

The 310-mile range is simply amazing. Previous threads have speculated as much, and the 95-mile range photo from a few weeks ago pretty much spelled it out for us. But it's a shock that Tesla now has *two* 300-mile cars in its lineup (and the X100D isn't far behind with 295). It should be pointed out that the Model 3 achieves 310 miles with a single motor. The dual motor, non-performance version will go even further - 335 miles???

It's clear there was a two-tiered press push going on all day, and it explains the scant nature of Elon's presentation. While the simpler sites like Electrek and Verge got the lower-tier "hussle-around-the-factory" drive, Motor Trend, who have been in bed with Tesla for years, got the upper-tier proper test drive on windy CA roads. Tesla have been in bed with Motor Trend on many occasions, especially acceleration tests. Fitting that they were given this level of access, and they delivered what Tesla wanted. Overall the media are giving the car great reviews, and don't forget, Tesla doesn't pay for any of it, or any advertising, so the reviews are biased against Tesla if anything.

This great press is all over the single-motor version. The dual motor high-current version will really drive the stake into the heart of BMW when it shows up. Since Tesla currently ship Model S with 4.3, 4.1 and 2.5-second 0-60, I predict the fast Model 3 could be well below the 4.0 seconds of the 2018 BMW M3. I expect $55,000 for the base price of the performance Model 3.

 

[RobStark]

I saw mention of 500k plus reservations but I just don't believe it. I also think it's irrelevant.

Yes, Tesla is releasing material lies. Opening themselves up to lawsuits and criminal prosecution. For no real material gain, as you stated yourself.

However Just the fact they had anyone who wanted to watch the model 3 reveal sign up to reserve a model 3, with no option to sign in via my Tesla, makes me think they are still hoping to add hype by announcing something like 500k + reservations. Maybe all this good press will do it. I don't really understand the point though. It's a pretty inefficient way to raise cash.

Completely and absolutely false. You could watch the Model 3 reveal at tesla.com by giving your real name or a false one. And giving them your real email address or a made up one for this purpose.

Then they asked you if you wanted to make a reservation. None was required to watch the reveal.

When something just doesn't make sense reevaluate your assumptions.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The 310-mile range is simply amazing. Previous threads have speculated as much, and the 95-mile range photo from a few weeks ago pretty much spelled it out for us. But it's a shock that Tesla now has *two* 300-mile cars in its lineup (and the X100D isn't far behind with 295). It should be pointed out that the Model 3 achieves 310 miles with a single motor. The dual motor, non-performance version will go even further - 335 miles???

I don't think the AWD version will have any more range. The standard drive unit is likely quite efficient (or they wouldn't achieve 237 Wh/mile), and the AWD version will be heavier.

 

[RobStark]

It's clear there was a two-tiered press push going on all day, and it explains the scant nature of Elon's presentation. While the simpler sites like Electrek and Verge got the lower-tier "hussle-around-the-factory" drive, Motor Trend, who have been in bed with Tesla for years, got the upper-tier proper test drive on windy CA roads.

Franz let Motor Trend drive and photograph his personal car a few days ago for what seems like maybe an hour and was then embargoed until after the reveal.

 

[anon]

I have seen 500k+ reservations listed in at least four news articles. Bloomberg and CNBC were two of them.

 

[pGo]

The same Ars article says this:

Eventually, Musk said on Friday, Tesla wants to put out 500,000 Model 3s a year, although he predicted about 50,000 Model 3s will hit the streets next year. At the factory on Friday evening, the first 30 vehicles were delivered to Tesla employees. Deliveries will be made slowly over the next year, starting with customers that already own Model S or X vehicles.


If true, very disappointing.

 

[RobStark]

I don't think the AWD version will have any more range. The standard drive unit is likely quite efficient (or they wouldn't achieve 237 Wh/mile), and the AWD version will be heavier.

Model S AWD is also heavier and deliveries more range.

Essentially a two speed transmission vs one.

I do expect more range from AWD but not 25 more. Maybe 5-7 miles.

 

[RobStark]

The same Ars article says this:

Eventually, Musk said on Friday, Tesla wants to put out 500,000 Model 3s a year, although he predicted about 50,000 Model 3s will hit the streets next year. At the factory on Friday evening, the first 30 vehicles were delivered to Tesla employees. Deliveries will be made slowly over the next year, starting with customers that already own Model S or X vehicles.


If true, very disappointing.

Absolutely not true. Elon repeatedly said exit 2017 at 5k units per week or rate of 20k per month.

Then reach 10k per week at some point in 2018.

Ars is confused.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Model S AWD is also heavier and deliveries more range.

Essentially a two speed transmission vs one.

I do expect more range from AWD but not 25 more. Maybe 5-7 miles.

The Model S rear drive unit is fairly inefficient. It's designed for power.

The front motor is designed for efficiency. AWD thus allows you to put the rear drive unit to sleep most of the time, and use the front unit for FWD most of the time.

If the rear motor is high efficiency, this doesn't work.

Edit: Remember this? See how "high-efficiency" is highlighted: High Efficiency Electric Drive Unit

 

[oneday]

Yes, Tesla is releasing material lies. Opening themselves up to lawsuits and criminal prosecution. For no real material gain, as you stated yourself.



Completely and absolutely false. You could watch the Model 3 reveal at tesla.com by giving your real name or a false one. And giving them your real email address or a made up one for this purpose.

Then they asked you if you wanted to make a reservation. None was required to watch the reveal.

When something just doesn't make sense reevaluate your assumptions.

I missed the part where they said 500k reservations. I only saw inferences of it. I certainly don't think that Tesla or anyone else is lying. Just missed that announcement and thought it was speculation.

When I first went to the site to watch the presentation I added my name and noticed that it then asked for my credit card etc... confused I went to a cached page, signed into My Tesla and went back to main page to see if it didn't prompt me to sign up or reserve, it did not.

 

[RobStark]

If the rear motor is high efficiency, this doesn't work.

It does work.

No motor is very efficient at very low and very high speeds.

If it were they would have designed the Model S with very efficient motor at all speeds in the first place. With no need for dual motors.

Model 3 motor is plenty powerful. 0-60 in 5.1 seconds.

 

[RobStark]

I missed the part where they said 500k reservations.

It was at press event before the reveal.