RobStark
Well-Known Member
Looks like Gov Rosselló is suggesting starting on a smaller scale on the islands of Vieques y Culebra
Implying he wants to see it work in reality in Puerto Rico before signing bigger contracts for all of Puerto Rico.
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Looks like Gov Rosselló is suggesting starting on a smaller scale on the islands of Vieques y Culebra
Implying he wants to see it work in reality in Puerto Rico before signing bigger contracts for all of Puerto Rico.
FWIW, in just one week, Norway counts already more Model S registrations than October 2016:
Tesla Registration Stats
If this rate continues, it's gonna be a great month.
Tesla Registration Stats
If this rate continues, it's gonna be a great month.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I wonder if Tesla's shipping to int'l markets more to keep 200,000th U.S. delivery to after march 31.
This would throw off Norway to Gonzalez extrapolation. Last quarter, for example, showed highest number of global deliveries ever, but wasn't as huge as Norway data would have led one to beleive if using simple extrapolation.
Nevertheless, Norway delivery number is a good data point to have, while keeping in mind its limitations.
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GM sounds very desperate to me lately which is a positive indicator to me. Like the German Automakers, its a lot of cheap talk but I don't see the action yet.....
That obviously will change over time but does not change the "ahead of the game and accelerating" situation Tesla is in.
Finally I doubt that there are many people out there in particular from the Auto industry who really understand the depth and breadth of Teslas impact and what is going on right now.
Agree, a lot of negatives have been priced in and a major blow would need to come to press the SP down to 300 again. Chard looks beautiful to the upside for me as well. If they manage to bring the M3 in decent numbers and S and X continue as planned I expect a nice lift throughout the end of the year.
The most important thing for this stock holder is operating the factory delivery mechanism flat out in the six month 'all cars $7,500 off' window.
A delay to set the environmental factors to ideal for that run is OK.
They would have to pry even harder to get the stock out of my cold dead hands with a good setup for the run and what is being done for PR.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Gerardf
Active Member
Demonstration of GM SuperCruise for journalists.
Cadillac's Super Cruise is the biggest challenger to Tesla's Autopilot — and we took it on a road trip
Cadillac's new self-driving tech is no Tesla Autopilot — and that's a good thing
Well ...
- Pre-prepared demo route (even partly used a police escort
)
- Roads must have been mapped in advance ??
- Often switches off.
If that is Tesla's biggest challenger..
Quote : Cadillac head Johan de Nysschen called SuperCruise the first fully hand-free freeway driving technology
Who is the one full of crap ???
Cadillac's Super Cruise is the biggest challenger to Tesla's Autopilot — and we took it on a road trip
Cadillac's new self-driving tech is no Tesla Autopilot — and that's a good thing
Well ...
- Pre-prepared demo route (even partly used a police escort
)- Roads must have been mapped in advance ??
- Often switches off.
If that is Tesla's biggest challenger..
Quote : Cadillac head Johan de Nysschen called SuperCruise the first fully hand-free freeway driving technology
Who is the one full of crap ???
Well, I think it depends on just how many Model 3's are shipped in Q4. By the end of 2017, Model S+X+Roadster sold since December, 2009 should be around 160,000. If Tesla only manages to ship, say, 10,000 Model 3's in 2017, then we're at 170,000 total going into Q1. Say S+X is another 15,000 in Q1, and Model 3 is then running at 4,000/week. That's 45,000 to 50,000 Model 3's. It might make sense to have 15,000 Model 3's to U.S., and then ship 30 to 35k overseas. Then as they hit the full 5,000/week by end of Q1, they then can ship 120,000 Model 3's in Q2 and Q3. In this scenario, 150,000 Model 3's in the U.S. with full tax credit and an extra 15-20k S/X also get the full tax credit.
But if the ramp is better... 25,000 Model 3's in 2017, then 185,000 total going to Q1, then it is nearly impossible to avoid crossing in Q1. At that point, it just makes sense to ship as many as possible in the U.S.
The key is the production rate within the two quarters where the tax credit starts to phase out. It is best that Tesla hits the highest rate they can at the beginning of that quarter and they should ship overseas if they aren't near 5k/week or better.
What is also interesting is the effect on S/X, as people will know the tax credit is in sunset and the demand will increase. Not only that, since the tax credit goes into a 1 year sunset mode after the full tax credit expires, the fall off isn't nearly as dramatic. Those that missed $7,500 won't want to miss $3,750. And those that missed $3,750 won't want to miss $1,875, if it still exists by then.
The best scenario for Tesla, IMHO, is to ship 15-20k Model 3's in the U.S. in Q4, possibly ship some overseas to keep it at that level, ship to overseas in Q1 to keep below 200,000, get production rate above 5k/week by beginning of Q2, and then ship mostly to U.S. for S/X and all to U.S. for the 3 in Q2 and Q3. If they can get production rate of the Model 3 to a blended rate of 6.5k/week in Q2 and Q3, that's 156,000 Model 3's. A total of 185,000 or so Model 3's with the full tax credit, or about the same amount as the combined U.S. sales of S+X ever. About 80% of the line would then have full tax credit and hopefully a slew of AWD buyers also get the full tax credit.
Well this means the hell is really bad and the chances of the non employees delivery in 2017 seems unlikely.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Clarification: "6 to 8 weeks" was his estimate for opening up the configurator, but he also indicated configurator is not needed to start non-employee deliveries, and he also said December will be a big month.
It is more likely that Tesla is backing of the extreme geographical batching of the Model S/X production because it results in the heavily back-loaded deliveries. It will be very difficult to deliver majority of cars in the last month of the quarter when significant quantity of Model 3 is added to the mix. So if Tesla starts allocating deliveries to each country proportional to the rate of incoming orders from this country, we should see total deliveries in October that are much higher than deliveries in first month of the preceding quarters.
As for the question of whether Tesla is shipping more to international markets, the answer is no. Deliveries to US as a percentage of total are **increasing** in 2017, quite significantly in Q3. Apologies if this throws off VA thoughts to reality extrapolation.
re: PR power
FEMA is now burying the progress data -
[Naturally, In-line with our now expected US Executive management HIA (head-in-ass) policies]
However PR is putting the data out themselves and can be tracked outside of FEMA
statusPR
Analysis | FEMA buried updates on Puerto Rico. Here they are.
FEMA is now burying the progress data -
[Naturally, In-line with our now expected US Executive management HIA (head-in-ass) policies]
However PR is putting the data out themselves and can be tracked outside of FEMA
statusPR
Analysis | FEMA buried updates on Puerto Rico. Here they are.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
As for the question of whether Tesla is shipping more to international markets, the answer is no. Deliveries to US as a percentage of total are **increasing** in 2017, quite significantly in Q3. Apologies if this throws off VA thoughts to reality extrapolation.
View attachment 252429
Thank you for sharing that data. I think what I was trying to say only applies to 4Q17 and 1Q18, if Tesla is trying to delay 200,000th U.S. delivery, so let's see how your table extends into subsequent months. Please keep us updated.
You would easily see this manifesting itself even before the Q4 delivery numbers are available. If Tesla artificially reduces deliveries to US, as you suggest they might, the US backlog would grow disproportionately and estimated delivery time for US would grow much longer than for overseas deliveries. I think that it is unlikely that Tesla will utilize this strategy.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree that this is less than likely, but possible, and I agree that lengthening delivery estimates on Model S/X would be the first indication.
I was reading this and was truly surprised to see your top and bottom ends of what is possible in 3 shipments. 10k 3s *shipped* is more like my base scenario at this point. I see 15-18k as the upper bound in 3 shipments. 20k is probably the max they can produce if everything goes smoothly here on out.
I really think we should be starting a poll for 3 deliveries in Q4.
Edit: Poll is live here
Model 3 Delivery Estimates for Q4 2017
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