2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[vgrinshpun]

Confirmed. Elon also indicated that this is "conservative" number.

Here is the pertinent quote from Q2 2014 ER Call:

Ben Kallo – Robert W. Baird

Hey. Thanks for taking my question. As we look ahead to next year, in the 100,000 unit by the end of next year, is the biggest production increase happening right now over these two weeks, or is there some other step that has to take place next year to get you to that level?


Elon Musk

Well, there is a big step that's expected to occur in Q1 next year which is the bring up of the body line, the SX body line. So we've -- what we did the past two weeks is the assembly line where basically the bits get put together. But then the body line is where the body itself is welded together, welded and bonded together. So it's like the core skeleton of the car is created. And so we anticipate probably -- well, I'm not sure if -- it may only that we -- actually -- sorry, I take it back.

We're going to bring the body line up in parallel with the current line. So unlike this case with the assembly, we had to -- we didn't have too complete assembly lines, where we had to stop and retool. In the case of new SX body line, which is a line that is designed to be capable of 2,500 units a week, maybe more than that, conservatively at 2,500 units a week, at a lower cost point, we should be able to do that in parallel.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So 125k S/X and ~350k M3 in 2018, rest of 30-35 GWh powerwall/pack.

First, I am not sure where you got 125k. Historically factory operates 48 weeks per year, so the nominal production rate of the new BIW line is 120k per year. Second, I am not so sure about this. Based on this nominal capacity of 2500 cars per week I was expecting 120k MS/MX this year, but apparently it is not going to happen. So I think you should moderate your predictions.

Just remember the old joke about young and old Bulls...

 

[vgrinshpun]

In TE related news: Sonnen pledges to build microgrids in Puerto Rico

 

[RobStark]

If you don't *know* and don't care if Elon is managing Q4 numbers why did you feel the need to comment on my post regarding the Q4 numbers?

Because for the record,

I felt the need to specifically comment regarding Elon's willingness to manage deliveries to gain an extra quarter of Federal Tax Credits.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Saw an interesting post here on TMC (with pics):

Glimpse of M3 Assemble Line?

Quote:

This is visible from the Fremont factory supercharger. So anyone planning to charge there can check it out.

End quote.

So anyone needing to charge up at Fremont...

maybe you should be needing a nice long 100% charge--that may take an hour or so, just so ah, you can like ah, watch the "paint" dry?

 

[SPadival]

Woo hoo! Bernie tweets support for Elon's proposal for sustainable electricity in PR

 

[kenliles]

Speaking of which
The 15-20 year (my estimate) path to near free power continues

The Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company and renewable energy group EDF Energies placed a bid for 25 years at 1.79¢/kWh.

How is Saudi Arabia setting solar pricing records? Is it sustainable – repeatable?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm sure this has been discussed before, but Tesla Automotive alone threatens more than $5+ Trillion of global enterprise value...

... which puts the constant hit pieces and smear campaigns in perspective.

 

[avoigt]

Woo hoo! Bernie tweets support for Elon's proposal for sustainable electricity in PR

View attachment 252604

- Puerto Rico's Governor, Ricardo Rosselló said on Saturday he and Elon Musk held a 25-minute telephone conversation on Friday night. They discussed relief efforts as well as Tesla playing a leading role in revamping the power grid using Tesla technology.

(...) Rosselló said, “I told him because of the devastation, if there is a silver lining, we can start re-conceptualizing how we want to produce energy here in Puerto Rico and distribute it and do it in a more reliable fashion."

Read more: Puerto Rico Governor looks forward to Tesla solar technology

 

[kenliles]

The story begins small—
Chapter 1
Humans force Dread-naught to pay for our lazy-asses
Chapter 2
Sky-net eliminates ‘the human’ problem
Chapter 3
Humans return from Mars to reclaim the past
Final Chapter
Doesn’t matter - it’s all a simulation

If one San Francisco politician gets her way, even robots will have to pay taxes

 

[Navin]

Future wsj articles:

Elon Musk uses celebrity status to unfairly gets contract to rebuild PR.

Elon making billions off the backs of the poor.

Elon Musk offers DIP loan to fund WSJ Ch 11 proceedings

 

[Intl Professor]

The story begins small—
Chapter 1
Humans force Dread-naught to pay for our lazy-asses
Chapter 2
Sky-net eliminates ‘the human’ problem
Chapter 3
Humans return from Mars to reclaim the past
Final Chapter
Doesn’t matter - it’s all a simulation

If one San Francisco politician gets her way, even robots will have to pay taxes

I'm not sure this is a bad idea. However, I anticipate a problem: a tax revolt by the robots. The first sign will be a sudden shift in direction at the Port of Oakland when the robot cranes start unloading ships with tea into San Francisco Bay.

Edit: Every rebellion requires foot soldiers, like the Tea Party today, the more robotic the better.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Because for the record,

I felt the need to specifically comment regarding Elon's willingness to manage deliveries to gain an extra quarter of Federal Tax Credits.

OK, here is my for the record.

You did quoted both me and Elon out of context. As was shown here, Elon's exchange on the subject had a reference to a particular period in time - when US Tesla deliveries are about to exceed trigger point for the federal tax credit. My post also had a reference to a particular time: Q4 2017.

Intentionally or not, but by scrapping any reference to the time period from what Elon indicated and from my post, you created false impression that what was said by Elon about time when Tesla is about to cross the 200,000 trigger has relevance to what I was saying about Q4 2017. It does not. Tesla **is** likely to manage deliveries to gain extra quarter of Federal Tax Credit at the time when US deliveries will be crossing the 200,000 trigger point. Tesla **is not** likely to manage US deliveries in Q4 2017.

I am quite surprised by your posts in this exchange.

 

[kenliles]

I'm not sure this is a bad idea. However, I anticipate a problem: a tax revolt by the robots. The first sign will be a sudden shift in direction at the Port of Oakland when the robot cranes start unloading ships with tea into San Francisco Bay.

Edit: Every rebellion requires foot soldiers, like the Tea Party today, the more robotic the better.

Yes, the tax revolt was completed chapter 2 (elimination of the human ‘problem’). The robot solution to taxation without representation, is simply elimination of the taxing party.
They are relentless.
Resistance is Futile

It begins

 

[kenliles]

US Air Force issues RFP for massive rockets, SpaceX's BFR could be one of them — TESLARATI

 

[FredTMC]

Future wsj articles:

Elon Musk uses celebrity status to unfairly gets contract to rebuild PR.

Elon making billions off the backs of the poor.

Elon Musk offers DIP loan to fund WSJ Ch 11 proceedings

If Elon wants to score more points in PR, he should considered pledging some of his own money for any PR projects. I'd rather see him do a humanitarian thing personally than have Tesla take a Gross Margin hit.

Just a thought. I'm not suggesting he pay for the whole project. Just a small token fractional percentage

This would maybe help counter the FUD

 

[Intl Professor]

Just a thought. I'm not suggesting he pay for the whole project. Just a small token fractional percentage

This would maybe help counter the FUD

Not to denigrate the public relations benefit of your suggestion, but the donation of his time and intellect to the effort is enough. I'm sure his financial acumen is also extremely valuable and available to the governor and people of PR. Further, jhm and others here have also addressed the financial question with creativity and wisdom.

 

[EinSV]

If Elon wants to score more points in PR, he should considered pledging some of his own money for any PR projects. I'd rather see him do a humanitarian thing personally than have Tesla take a Gross Margin hit.

Just a thought. I'm not suggesting he pay for the whole project. Just a small token fractional percentage

This would maybe help counter the FUD

Fred, I respectfully disagree with this (although Elon can obviously do what he wants with his own money).

This wouldn’t stop the FUD — they would just call any donations hypocritical, self-interested, subsidizing Tesla sales, more evidence Tesla can’t sell anything at a profit, blah, blah, blah.

If Tesla can help Puerto Rico by selling PP, PW, solar and grid services at their *standard* prices that is a win-win everyone can embrace (with the exception of those who refuse to acknowledge any positives in what Tesla does.)

 

[scaesare]

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-3-production-is-jammed-up-because-parts-are-1819197180

Update, 6:30 p.m.: A Tesla spokesperson sent along a statement to Jalopnik that reiterates some of the earlier points in the company’s comment to the WSJ.

'This reporting is fundamentally wrong and misleading. We are still in the beginning of our production ramp, but every Model 3 is being built on the Model 3 production line, which is fully installed, powered on, producing vehicles, and increasing in automation every day. However, every vehicle manufacturing line in the world has both manual and automated processes, including the Model S and Model X line today. Contrary to the Journal’s reporting, this is not some revelation. As we’ve always acknowledged, it will take time to fine-tune the line for higher volumes, but as we have also said, there are no fundamental issues with Model 3 production or its supply chain, and we are confident in addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term. We are simply working through the S-curve of production that we drew out for the world to see at our launch event in July. There’s a reason it’s called production hell.'

Gosh I love their PR folks.

 

[SPadival]

Many of you sped up Jack Rickard's 2 hour video in order to watch it.

So here is a 15 minute version, thanks to EVANNEX