Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Question on gross margin:
Do the fixed non vehicle specific factory costs get proportioned across the manufactured vehicles against their gross margin?

If so, does that mean the factory cost per vehicle on X and S will drop to a third of current levels when the production mix is 100k S/X and 200k 3?

If so, any guess on the increase in gross margin for S/X due to 3?

Depends on how they allocated the rest of the factory. It could have been leased office space, development space or storage space. People use fractional parts of buildings. I would expect some of what you are looking for to occur.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: mongo
Question on gross margin:
Do the fixed non vehicle specific factory costs get proportioned across the manufactured vehicles against their gross margin?

If so, does that mean the factory cost per vehicle on X and S will drop to a third of current levels when the production mix is 100k S/X and 200k 3?

If so, any guess on the increase in gross margin for S/X due to 3?

I'll spare you the details for the benefit of time and length, but you're on the right track. Most of the benefit from higher production will be reflected in operating margins, but gross margins will also benefit some for the very reason you indicated.

It's impossible for company outsiders to know by how much without fully understanding the fixed cost allocation methods, which are specific to each company and done by complex software for each general ledger line item separately, with thousands of inputs, even at companies 1/10th the size of Tesla.
 
Last edited:
From your link:
it has filed a class action lawsuit on behalf of purchasers of the common shares of Tesla, Inc. from May 4, 2016 through October 6, 2017, inclusive (the “Class Period”)
I'm sure they are going to have a lot of success getting investors like me who purchased TSLA during that period to join that class. After all, I'm only up about 100% at an average purchase price of $180.
 
From this week "Tesla Social" event, which I attended today, the referral program ending on October 31st will be changed going forward: the $1000 discount for those using a referral code will be eliminated, but free life-time supercharging will remain.

This is another indication that rate of incoming orders for Model S and X remains strong, or may be even improving.
 
Last edited:
Is anyone else just dying, laughing, reading through Elon's AMA in r/space?

Some of this stuff is pure gold.
Screen Shot 2017-10-14 at 8.16.56 PM.png
 
Shockingly, VW does not see Toyota or Nissan as its main mass-market EV rival (what's even more, GM is not even mentioned, prognostications of some not very high rated analysts notwithstanding). That role, apparently, is reserved for Tesla.

Summary of the Automobilwiche article here, via SeekingAlpha Market News.

Here is a stunning example of whitewashing from VW:

While there's high praise for Tesla from Wolfsburg, VW still thinks it has an advantage with component assembly.

VW certainly has advantage in component (designed and manufactured by the suppliers) assembly. As in assembly of black boxes which by definition produces inferior results as compared to what could be achieved by vertical integration and true optimized design, from the ground up, as Tesla has been demonstrating for more than a decade. That is what I call **structurally uncompetitive**.

It looks downright ominous for the OEMs. All signs are that they stick their heads deep in the sand. That is not going to end well for them.
 
Last edited:
Shockingly, VW does not see Toyota or Nissan as its main mass-market EV rival (what's even more, GM is not even mentioned, prognostications of some not very high rated analysts notwithstanding). That role, apparently, is reserved for Tesla.

Summary of the Automobilwiche article here, via SeekingAlpha Market News.

Here is a stunning example of the whitewashing from VW:



VW certainly has advantage in component (designed and manufactured by the suppliers) assembly. As in assembly of black boxes which by definition produces inferior results as compared to what could be achieved by vertical integration and true optimized design, from the ground up, as Tesla has been demonstrating for more than a decade. That is what I call **structurally uncompetitive**.

It looks downright ominous for the OEMs. All signs are that they stick their heads deep in the sand. That is not going to end well for them.

I wish someone would flat out ask Elon for a response to that VW statement on an ER conference call. I'd really be interested in his response. I wonder if Tesla is confident enough in their ability that they could respond in such a way that would silence the bear argument that the competition could just flip a switch and instantly make better EVs than Tesla. An answer from any high-level Tesla manufacturing engineer would probably suffice as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ggies07 and Lessmog
I wish someone would flat out ask Elon for a response to that VW statement on an ER conference call. I'd really be interested in his response. I wonder if Tesla is confident enough in their ability that they could respond in such a way that would silence the bear argument that the competition could just flip a switch and instantly make better EVs than Tesla. An answer from any high-level Tesla manufacturing engineer would probably suffice as well.
Shhh... Let's keep this among ourselves. Whitewashing will only get them so far. Let this moat grow a little wider and deeper.
 
I hope this helps the Island and also helps provide some longer term economic solutions.

Question: where are the power packs going to get power from to charge up? Does anyone know if solar cells are also being delivered as part of the solution?
WAG: There should be a number of solar panels around to be salvaged, and maybe it won't take too much effort to connect them to form a system. Perhaps some converters too. It seems certainly well worth an effort.
 
  • Like
Reactions: kenliles
On the topic of seemingly crazy long-term valuations discussed in the Market Action thread, someone on the Tesla forum recently bumped a thread from another poster who predicted a $1000/share price in 2020 in April 2013, when the SP had just started ramping up and was in the $50 range.
Why I think Tesla stock will be more than $1,000 in 2020 | Page 2 | Tesla

Ironically, his assumptions on vehicle volumes were too conservative in several respects, but he was headed in the right direction.

Last fall, I also posted a simplified valuation model which estimated the value of TSLA in 2019 at $1228. 3 Year Tesla Valuation Model At the time, the SP was $193. I distinguish valuation from SP because the market is unpredictable and can be irrational. I plan to update this after Q3 ER to update assumptions and include estimates for Tesla Semi and Solar Roof.

I think it is very useful to have a rough long-term valuation or range that I am comfortable with. Otherwise, it is too easy to be influenced by current share price or share price trends, which do not necessarily have anything to do with value. As @winfield100 mentioned, I do think share price trends can be helpful to identify buy points, or to manage leverage. Having strong conviction on long-term valuation led to me to decide to load up in Nov/Dec 2016 when the SP was $190-200, after starting to buy again for the first time since 2012 near the bottom in Feb. 2016.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.