2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Gerardf]

Some of the comments here are hilarious. "it is good to cut S and X staff". Someday the company will fire everyone, and it will still be good because 'Elon can waive his magic wand to send cars OTA to the customers. A car that never requires any service and runs for a million miles. Who needs workers? It's all an AI simulation.'.

People, are we forgetting that we are talking about an exponential growth company here, the one that will take over all sectors, not just autos? If in doubt, ask Adam. The CEO's favorite buzzword is 'exponential'. It should be hiring lots of people, not firing lots of people.
If these are performance based firing, the hiring process and management must be terrible to have to fire so many from the factory at once right before the ramp to 500k cars in 2018 What is a worse performance than producing 260 pre-production M3s instead of 1630 production M3 in Q3?
What's worse than not delivering EAP in a year instead of 6 months?

So, it took Tesla 4 years to figure out Juan was an underperformer? Got it!
Is it the workers that slowed down M3 production, if the vendors are reporting no to slow demand for parts from Tesla and GF still hasn't ramped up enought to have an output worthy of a tweet? Check.

What a brilliant excuse to hide the number of layoffs.

I'm having serious doubt about the 450,000 number. The company is not showing any sign of gearing up to that level of production.

Telsa has hired people at a crazy speed the past 2 years, and also took over many Solarcity employees that would have to adapt to fit the new company and positions. It is to be expected that not 100% of all those the hirings are a perfect fit.
Howver this is a developing story, Tesla says it will hire replacements and time will proof that. You seem to assume Tesla was telling a lie about that.

Next you spread FUD about the 450.000 reservations, and Tesla not even gearing up to mass production to such numbers, all out insinuating that Tesla was telling very serious lies to mislead shareholders in the most recent official reporting, where it stated that reservations were actually still growing.

Both are very serious accusitions, specially the latter one, those need at the very least some proof and not just your biased guesswork.
Please go spread unproven fud somewhere else, this is not the SA forum but a serious investors forum.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

I work in tech, where it's normal to "manage out" the bottom 10% of your employees every year after performance reviews. You can thank Jack Welch, Steve Balmer, and Jeff Bezos for that. Oh, and Steve Jobs who would fire entire teams on the spot if they screwed up. Silicon Valley culture is ruthless this way. So, to see Tesla managing out 2% of its employees after performance reviews is pretty tame, actually. I don't even know why this is a story. It's how tech companies are run.

 

[schonelucht]

Some of the comments here are hilarious. "it is good to cut S and X staff".

S and X staff makes sense. Production is mature and stable for over a year now and no big upgrades are planned. As experience grows you can keep doing the same production level with less people since all the protocols are known, all the possible failures are known etc. What's a bit surprising is that they had no open positions on the Model 3 line to transfer these people to. Either Model 3 line is fully staffed or not yet ready to accept more workers.

 

[Alketi]

S and X staff makes sense. Production is mature and stable for over a year now and no big upgrades are planned. As experience grows you can keep doing the same production level with less people since all the protocols are known, all the possible failures are known etc. What's a bit surprising is that they had no open positions on the Model 3 line to transfer these people to. Either Model 3 line is fully staffed or not yet ready to accept more workers.

schonelucht, these weren't layoffs, they were firings. A layoff means the employee typically gets a severance package and that their job was eliminated, i.e. the company can't rehire for that same position.

A firing is more difficult because it requires "just cause" but it also means that the company can refill the same position with a new hire. Since these weren't layoffs, this seems more like an internal "house cleaning" rather than a statement about S/X/3 production or demand.

 

[dennis]

Does anyone here know of a current or former Model S/X owner who is short the stock? It strikes me that so many of the bear criticisms of Tesla are based on erroneous assumptions that any owner can immediately discount. OTOH all of the owners I know are delighted with their cars, although not uniformly happy with the service experience. So I'm wondering if any owner's experience with Tesla was so bad that they would feel confident betting against the stock.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

remember the $**6's post?

9/05: high $356 low $346
9/06: pin $346
9/07: rise with bottom at $347
9/08: drop with hold at $345 close $343
9/11: AH close $365
9/12: drop with recovery to $366 close $363
9/13: open $359 close $366
9/14: dramatic morning rise to $376
9/15: close $376
9/18: close $386
9/19: close $376
9/20: swing with late day peak at $376 close $374
9/21: open $376 close $366
9/22: open $366 dramatic drop to $356 close $352
9/25: drop $350 spike $356 close $346
9/26: swings around $346 close $344
9/27: late spike $346 close $341
9/28: morning drop $336 close $337
9/29: $338 - $344 anomaly
10/2: morning swing drop $336 pin $337 AH spike $348 AH close $336
10/3: open $336 dramatic rise to close $348 AH close $350
10/4: dramatic rise $356
10/5: close $356
10/6: open $356 swing $360 close $356
10/9: open drop to $346 close $342 AH close $346
10/10: open $346 dramatic rise all day $356
10/11: close $356
10/12: close $356
10/13: close $356

This seems incredible at first look, but in fact, the probability of at least one of the last two digits of SP being a six at open OR low OR high OR close OR pin OR AH OR "anomaly" is extremely high, and I'm willing to bet that there's at least one mistake in that list anyway.

Edit: it took me 5 seconds to find a mistake: 10/11 closed at $354.60, not $356. If anyone says, "but the digit after the period is a 6," I'll first look at the in bewilderment, and then explain that at least one of the digits out of five being a six in any of the price points I listed above is virtually 100%.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does anyone here know of a current or former Model S/X owner who is short the stock? It strikes me that so many of the bear criticisms of Tesla are based on erroneous assumptions that any owner can immediately discount. OTOH all of the owners I know are delighted with their cars, although not uniformly happy with the service experience. So I'm wondering if any owner's experience with Tesla was so bad that they would feel confident betting against the stock.

This is one of the reasons theTSLA is a *cult* short stock.

 

[Reciprocity]

I agree with your sentiment, but we need to get the numbers right.
It is 400-700 at Fremont (4-7% of employees at Fremont). Additional firings at other Tesla locations occurred if you believe posts on Reddit, Twitter today. So we don't know the total number/percentage.

I knew that I read this somewhere. It's common in some companies to turn over the bottom 10% almost relentlessly. No conspiracy here.



By John Tschohl

Jack Welch, the former chairman and CEO of General Electric, offered this advice for improving a company: Fire 10 percent of your workforce every year because their replacements would result in an annual upgrade of the workforce. Welch’s HR policy categorized the entire workforce, using a classic bell curve, into the 20 percent top performers, 70 percent average performers and 10 percent worst performers. Every year the worst performing 10 percent were shown the door.

What harm can a few incompetent employees do? A lot more than you think.

In my opinion, it’s crucial for companies to screen out incompetent characters before they’re hired – and if they do slip through the cracks, companies must make every effort to reform or (if necessary) oust them.

It’s so much easier to focus on attracting and developing superstars. They are the ones that deliver astounding results and it’s more rewarding to focus on top-performing, energetic employees.

 

[Lessmog]

This seems incredible at first look, but in fact, the probability of at least one of the last two digits of SP being a six at open OR low OR high OR close OR pin OR AH OR "anomaly" is extremely high, and I'm willing to bet that there's at least one mistake in that list anyway.

Edit: it took me 5 seconds to find a mistake: 10/11 closed at $354.60, not $356. If anyone says, "but the digit after the period is a 6," I'll first look at the in bewilderment, and then explain that at least one of the digits out of five being a six in any of the price points I listed above is virtually 100%.

Last week (I think) I saw the share price listed at 333.33 for a minute. What are the odds? (Not bad.) Now, triple that and we can talk ...

 

[myusername]

This seems incredible at first look, but in fact, the probability of at least one of the last two digits of SP being a six at open OR low OR high OR close OR pin OR AH OR "anomaly" is extremely high, and I'm willing to bet that there's at least one mistake in that list anyway.

Edit: it took me 5 seconds to find a mistake: 10/11 closed at $354.60, not $356. If anyone says, "but the digit after the period is a 6," I'll first look at the in bewilderment, and then explain that at least one of the digits out of five being a six in any of the price points I listed above is virtually 100%.

Let's take a closer look:

10/9
the two horizontal white lines in the chart are $346 and $356. the first day is 10/9... remember that day?... SP closed into the low to $342?... then it just b-lined in AH back to $346... then it opened up and dropped immediately into $346 with heavy volume... remember how dropped straight down and when immediately hitting $346 volume started cranking? too bad I can't find a per second chart.

10/10
ok... then what happens... volume continues to create noise with rise and drops back to $346.61 and low $347s... and then a big move up... where does it end the day?... 7m shares traded and a $10 reversal... lands right on $355.5x and guess what the next minute in AH was?... take a guess... $355.97...

10/11
then it opened the next day at $353... then it immediately reversed back up to... you got it... $356.14... with a big drop all the way down to $351.14... and then what?... a large reversal to where?... $357.49 followed by an a quick drop back to $356 where it spent the next 7 hours dropping and reversing to within 50c of $356... here's your day of misinformation:

see that last rise right before the close?... that's $355.60... then the close drug it down to (you're correct)... $354.4x.

10/12
now back to the first chart... so what happened the next day?... open and drop to $352 followed by a quick reversal to just above $356... with a big swing above it that then slowly descended all day to... you got it... $356.32 where then in AH it was trading for exactly $356.00...

10/13
just as it is right now in the close of yesterday's AH.

here's the last 20 days with lines at $336, $346 and $356:

it's all about the **6's... 150m shares traded since 9/06 and it's been trading like this for months with this obviousness... and years not being so obvious.

 

[Robocop]

Let's take a closer look:


View attachment 253901

10/9
the two horizontal white lines in the chart are $346 and $356. the first day is 10/9... remember that day?... SP closed into the low to $342?... then it just b-lined in AH back to $346... then it opened up and dropped immediately into $346 with heavy volume... remember how dropped straight down and when immediately hitting $346 volume started cranking? too bad I can't find a per second chart.

10/10
ok... then what happens... volume continues to create noise with rise and drops back to $346.61 and low $347s... and then a big move up... where does it end the day?... 7m shares traded and a $10 reversal... lands right on $355.5x and guess what the next minute in AH was?... take a guess... $355.97...

10/11
then it opened the next day at $353... then it immediately reversed back up to... you got it... $356.14... with a big drop all the way down to $351.14... and then what?... a large reversal to where?... $357.49 followed by an a quick drop back to $356 where it spent the next 7 hours dropping and reversing to within 50c of $356... here's your day of misinformation:

View attachment 253898

see that last rise right before the close?... that's $355.60... then the close drug it down to (you're correct)... $354.4x.

10/12
now back to the first chart... so what happened the next day?... open and drop to $352 followed by a quick reversal to just above $356... with a big swing above it that then slowly descended all day to... you got it... $356.32 where then in AH it was trading for exactly $356.00...

10/13
just as it is right now in the close of yesterday's AH.

here's the last 20 days with lines at $336, $346 and $356:

View attachment 253907

it's all about the **6's... 150m shares traded since 9/06 and it's been trading like this for months with this obviousness... and years not being so obvious.

 

[Krugerrand]

I imagine that’s exactly what his Mom’s basement walls look like. Anyone want to take that bet? VA?

 

[Alketi]

Does anyone here know of a current or former Model S/X owner who is short the stock? It strikes me that so many of the bear criticisms of Tesla are based on erroneous assumptions that any owner can immediately discount. OTOH all of the owners I know are delighted with their cars, although not uniformly happy with the service experience. So I'm wondering if any owner's experience with Tesla was so bad that they would feel confident betting against the stock.

Weekend off-topic gossip

There were two heavily anti-Tesla people on Seeking Alpha who claimed to own a Model S. Both insisted the car was horrible and they were trying to sell it, etc. And, by some marvelous coincidence, their timelines were magically intertwined.

The first guy burst on to the scene and claimed he wasn't invested in the stock either way, but was just there to warn everyone about Tesla/Elon. He lived in the Bay Area, appeared to run an obscure anti-Elon website that he would occasionally reference, and spent the time to drive the exact route of Tesla's first autopilot demo. He also deconstructed the first video frame-by-frame to find any discontinuities. Quite the dedication for someone with no financial interest, eh? Oh, and he also posted at the incredible rate of once every 32 minutes, 24/7, for a month and a half. Randy Carlson even wrote about him in an article.

Then after about 6 months or so, he disappeared cold-turkey.

Then the next guy showed up with his first post ONE DAY after the previous character disappeared. (1/365 chance)

This second guy claims to have turned anti-Tesla when his Model S tried to kill him on autopilot as he approached a toll booth. [Can't make this up] He claims to be short, doesn't talk about his Model S as much, and has a different writing style from the first. So, is he simply a 1/365 coincidence or was he handed the baton from the first fellow? Who knows, but it's probably a coin-flip either way.

Being, or pretending to be a disgruntled Tesla owner turned "activist" is something you'd think you'd see more of on these websites. It's a credibility play while also spreading FUD. The first guy reeked of being a fired former employee. And, given the recent news, I wouldn't be surprised if more anti-Tesla folks appear online over the next few weeks. Be prepared.

 

[MP3Mike]

A firing is more difficult because it requires "just cause"

@Alketi No, California is an "at will' employment state, meaning that any person can be fired for any, or no reason at all, at any time. "Just cause" is not necessary. (Unless your position is part of a union, or other, contract that states differently.)

 

[elasalle]

Let's take a closer look:


View attachment 253901

10/9
the two horizontal white lines in the chart are $346 and $356. the first day is 10/9... remember that day?... SP closed into the low to $342?... then it just b-lined in AH back to $346... then it opened up and dropped immediately into $346 with heavy volume... remember how dropped straight down and when immediately hitting $346 volume started cranking? too bad I can't find a per second chart.

10/10
ok... then what happens... volume continues to create noise with rise and drops back to $346.61 and low $347s... and then a big move up... where does it end the day?... 7m shares traded and a $10 reversal... lands right on $355.5x and guess what the next minute in AH was?... take a guess... $355.97...

10/11
then it opened the next day at $353... then it immediately reversed back up to... you got it... $356.14... with a big drop all the way down to $351.14... and then what?... a large reversal to where?... $357.49 followed by an a quick drop back to $356 where it spent the next 7 hours dropping and reversing to within 50c of $356... here's your day of misinformation:

View attachment 253898

see that last rise right before the close?... that's $355.60... then the close drug it down to (you're correct)... $354.4x.

10/12
now back to the first chart... so what happened the next day?... open and drop to $352 followed by a quick reversal to just above $356... with a big swing above it that then slowly descended all day to... you got it... $356.32 where then in AH it was trading for exactly $356.00...

10/13
just as it is right now in the close of yesterday's AH.

here's the last 20 days with lines at $336, $346 and $356:

View attachment 253907

it's all about the **6's... 150m shares traded since 9/06 and it's been trading like this for months with this obviousness... and years not being so obvious.

I see dead people.
Onus is on you TMCers for bring them back .......

 

[TMSE]

I see dead people.
Onus is on you TMCers for bring them back .......

I love dead people, especially around Halloween

 

[Dagger]

Elon Musk on Twitter: BFR AMA on r/space in 2 hours
Elon Musk on Twitter

Link to the subreddit:
/r/space: news, articles, images, videos, and discussion

 

[Intl Professor]

I love dead people, especially around Halloween

I kid you not that's when we buried my Mom at 99+! Also, the grave diggers looked like droll trolls, one was really short with a long beard and shorts, although the day was a bit chilly. Turned out they graduated from the same high school as my brother and I.

 

[mongo]

Question on gross margin:
Do the fixed non vehicle specific factory costs get proportioned across the manufactured vehicles against their gross margin?

If so, does that mean the factory cost per vehicle on X and S will drop to a third of current levels when the production mix is 100k S/X and 200k 3?

If so, any guess on the increase in gross margin for S/X due to 3?

 

[mmd]

Telsa has hired people at a crazy speed the past 2 years, and also took over many Solarcity employees that would have to adapt to fit the new company and positions. It is to be expected that not 100% of all those the hirings are a perfect fit.
Howver this is a developing story, Tesla says it will hire replacements and time will proof that. You seem to assume Tesla was telling a lie about that.

Next you spread FUD about the 450.000 reservations, and Tesla not even gearing up to mass production to such numbers, all out insinuating that Tesla was telling very serious lies to mislead shareholders in the most recent official reporting, where it stated that reservations were actually still growing.

That will be totally uncharacteristic, right? Hey, didn't Elon say 500k M3 reservations a while back? Are you saying, Elon wasn't up-to-date about the most important car's reservation tally? This is the ultimate goal of master plan I, remember? The electric car for the masses? Hmm, may be the tally also decreased during some period. 'Growing' is quite vague, because it is associated with a period. Unless someone says "monotonically growing", it could be ups and downs.
Before Tesla admitted 458k was the number, the narrative in the press has been "over 500k" for a long time. Neither Tesla nor Elon bothered to correct such mistake, even though I'm sure someone keeps a tab on every article on Tesla, as evidenced by Elon tweeting the positive ones. But yeah, that 458k is now a gospel till the next gospel is handed out.

But I'm not the only one doubting. There are already 5 lawsuits I counted, accusing Tesla of misleading people about Model 3 ramp. Here is one.
Let's see what December brings. Twitter followers are still waiting to see 20k M3s in December; Elon hasn't backed out of that. The ramp goes vertical anytime now.
EQUITY ALERT: Rosen Law Firm Files Securities Class Action Lawsuit Against Tesla, Inc. – TSLA

According to the lawsuit, defendants throughout the Class Period made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) contrary to defendants’ representations that Tesla was prepared for the launch of its Model 3 sedan, in reality, Tesla had severely inadequate inventory and was woefully unprepared to launch Model 3 sedan as anticipated; and (2) as a result, Tesla’s public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

Please go spread unproven fud somewhere else, this is not the SA forum but a serious investors forum.

I was forced to give you a 'funny' for the emboldened part. Yes, these are serious accusations from lawyers. Elon should have known better, that his tweets can be taken seriously by some shareholders.