I am fairly certain that there are many, many times your seven known cases. I also had two contractor relateted Model S “breakdowns” and I remember reading about quite a few other cases in the early years.
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I am fairly certain that there are many, many times your seven known cases. I also had two contractor relateted Model S “breakdowns” and I remember reading about quite a few other cases in the early years.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I thought that they might cost less to produce for reasons beyond the increased energy density.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Uber lawyer says ex-CEO, board members told of letter kept from Waymo lawsuit Uber lawyer says ex-CEO, board members told of letter kept from Waymo lawsuit
The hearing was still ongoing on Wednesday.
Former Uber security analyst Richard Jacobs testified in court this week that his lawyer sent a 37-page letter to Padilla describing an organization within Uber called marketplace analytics that he said exists for the purpose of acquiring trade secrets, code base and competitive intelligence.
Jacobs' attorney sent the U.S. Department of Justice a similar letter making the same claims.
In his testimony Jacobs described an elaborate intelligence operation inside Uber to deliberately research competitors and gather data about them, and use technology to avoid a paper trail.
Alsup delayed the trial, which had been scheduled for next week, to give Waymo more time to investigate the allegations.
In court on Wednesday, Padilla said Uber viewed the Jacobs letter as a tactic by a disgruntled former employee to secure money from the company.
However, Uber eventually settled the matter by paying Jacobs $4.5 million (£3.36 million), including a consulting contract, and a further $3 million to his lawyer.
"That is a lot of money," Alsup said. "And people don't pay that kind of money for BS. And you certainly don't hire them as consultants if you think everything they've got to contribute is BS."
Sounds like uber hired a sleazy attorney.
The hearing was still ongoing on Wednesday.
Former Uber security analyst Richard Jacobs testified in court this week that his lawyer sent a 37-page letter to Padilla describing an organization within Uber called marketplace analytics that he said exists for the purpose of acquiring trade secrets, code base and competitive intelligence.
Jacobs' attorney sent the U.S. Department of Justice a similar letter making the same claims.
In his testimony Jacobs described an elaborate intelligence operation inside Uber to deliberately research competitors and gather data about them, and use technology to avoid a paper trail.
Alsup delayed the trial, which had been scheduled for next week, to give Waymo more time to investigate the allegations.
In court on Wednesday, Padilla said Uber viewed the Jacobs letter as a tactic by a disgruntled former employee to secure money from the company.
However, Uber eventually settled the matter by paying Jacobs $4.5 million (£3.36 million), including a consulting contract, and a further $3 million to his lawyer.
"That is a lot of money," Alsup said. "And people don't pay that kind of money for BS. And you certainly don't hire them as consultants if you think everything they've got to contribute is BS."
Sounds like uber hired a sleazy attorney.
Well, for all the bitching that is done on here about Tesla eventually using autonomous Semis...I can't wait. Here we have humans wanting to create even more dangerous situations on the highways:
Truckers better be scared of losing their jobs, because if they act this way, I certainly favor AI autonomous fleets over them.
Trump Administration Aims To Loosen Obama-Era Truck Safety Rules
Truckers better be scared of losing their jobs, because if they act this way, I certainly favor AI autonomous fleets over them.
Trump Administration Aims To Loosen Obama-Era Truck Safety Rules
Lidar just got way better—but it’s still too expensive for your car
Google is using lidar and Tesla is using radar+video right?
Google is using lidar and Tesla is using radar+video right?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
When Tesla announced the Gigafactory they said something like “at least a 30% cost reduction by 2018 (?) and at least a 50% reduction by 2020 (?). The only reason for that could be that it costs less and takes less time to build more copies of the same cell manufacturing equipment. They will also save money because the the fact that they squeezed three times as much equipment into the building. That not only means that they save on the building costs but because they will produce the equipment at a larger scale. I believe that the cost savings will be at least 30% instead of the 20% that they initially estimated.
The biggest moat appears to be that nobody else has figured that out except Northvolt (presumably). That moat could be partially overcome if Samsung or LG figures this out and decides to go for it. A large improvement in batteries could trigger that since they would be correct that they would have a market for the cells. I said partially because the other oem’s would probably not get as good a price as Tesla.
I exchanged emails with the people in Austin who are marketing the Goodenaugh cells. They said that they have signed agreements with over fifty large battery manufacturers. I’m looking forward to the time when the other OEM’s realize that competing with Tesla is a lot more difficult than they thought.
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I hope not:
“Usually, these electrical connections are installed by a robot, but for this car this connection was installed manually. There has never been a similar incident in another one of our cars,”
Tesla says Model S fire in France was due to ‘electrical connection improperly tightened’ by a human instead of robots
https://electrek.co/2016/09/09/tesl...-connection-improperly-tightened-human-robot/
Now the Norway charger incident link from article could count, but the suspected root cause has been addressed via software.
Both one off events. Better than my GM truck's brake lines rupturing.
no... it motivated the humans... the bots are what makes it "rubber band" back to $306 when the volume drops off.
LOL, apples and oranges. 90+ percent of all charging of M3s will be at owners home, townhouse, etc. so of course Tesla will sell many more times electricity it may produce and store to Semis rather than to M3! That doesn't change the fact that profit to be made from selling 13 M3/MY is 3.5 times the profit from 1 Semi as the simple math in the original post shows. There will be no profit based reason for Tesla to hold back Semi production if there are sufficient cells to make as many M3 as they can and as many Semi as they can.
You second point is correct, since Tesla hasn't announced any plans to refurbish M3s. Just as they don't refurbish MS/MX. In rare cases someone may put 500,000 miles on their MS/MX and decide they want to exchange their pack for a new one. Just swapping packs I wouldn't think would count as refurbishment like might be done on a Semi with over 1 million miles.
But you're looking at profit from the battery POV, not from the vehicle. The model 3 production line is huge (almost half of the fremont factory is devoted to building the model 3, plus two new buildings to stage model 3 parts), because of the rate of production that's needed. Would a semi production line be smaller (due to lower production rate goals)? Would it fit within the gigafactory? If so, then wouldn't it be more profitable to sell the semi versus building out a new factory to build the model 3?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
LOL. It absolutley changes the equation if Tesla profits from selling electricity to Semi owners.
1.7 cent electricity is here. And falling.
Energy storage prices are falling.
Maybe not big profits early in the Semi life but big profit streams later on. That should be very obvious but not addressed in your first post.
Reciprocity
Active Member
$80,000 lidar vs $20 camera... Hrm.. people do realized that lidar is light and cameras are also light based. The big difference is the r at the end.. ranging. But with two cameras, you can get good enough accuracy, about 10cm. More importantly, like a billion times more importantly, is to identify the objects, which lidar really doesn't add much value. My point is that once you do everything you must do to make this work, the lidar's value goes down a lot. It's like critical if you can't recognize objects, but becomes less valuable when you can. The main advantage is accuracy but two cameras are already accurate enough for FSD, about 10cm or the length of a credit card. This is already as good as the best drivers on the planet, but yeah, lidar is better. Just not $80,000 better. Lidar is 5 years from being cheap enough to be used and then I'm sure Tesla will use them.
larmor
Active Member
I like this new business model, selling electricity, or selling energy. It reminds me when netflix went from dvds to streaming. Or when apple went from computers and phones to music streaming or icloud photo sharing.
dc_h
Active Member
Who found these people? Why did they apparently meet as a group? What is the context of cars with issues? New model 3's with various assembly and logistics issues? The model S issues with handles and some fit and finish issues seem more 2015 then 2017. The whole thing doesn't sound authentic to me. Sounds like angry people with an axe to grind, including the initial reporter.
StapleGun
Member
Apologies if this has already been known, but it appears Semi truck reservation numbers might be sequential. Someone posted a screenshot of reservation EO000001230 to Instagram. Another user SEILogistics who reserved very quickly (5-10 minutes into the unveiling) confirmed that his reservation number is EO000000025. This is a strong indication that these numbers are sequential, which if true would indicate over 1230 reservations have been placed. It is not clear if reserving multiple semis would use a single reservation number or one for each semi.
Edit: The screenshot posted does say "Reservation Number" and "Reservation Quantity" which to me seems like a single reservation can have multiple semis reserved.
Edit: The screenshot posted does say "Reservation Number" and "Reservation Quantity" which to me seems like a single reservation can have multiple semis reserved.
Sounds like most of the early on-road breakdowns happened in Norway, which would explain why I didn't hear about them; I was only monitoring English-language reports. I heard Bjorn's.
Also, yes, I was including that bizarre test-drive fire in the five I knew about. Though not the one that was destroyed at the charger.
I *have* an early 2013 Model S, guys, and I was aggressively monitoring at the time for *all* reports, in languages I can read, of breakdowns. I'm sure there were many people who never reported their breakdowns online, but seriously, there weren't that many reported.
Definitely was a learning curve going on for the company though. They did at least six "stealth recalls" that I know of where they replaced a part in every single car on the road once they'd figured out it didn't work right, without announcing an official recall. I certainly hope they can avoid this with future products, as it's expensive.
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Agree with everything you said, except the last sentence. In 5 years Lidar will be cheaper, but Tesla will confirm Lidar is unnecessary. Tesla said if vision works, you have a real self-driving. If vision doesn't work, no self-driving. I agree with them.
The one that caught fire at the charger was the charger's fault, not the car, and I'm not sure if that would have counted as a breakdown in any case.
Having said that, I had to get the BGC towed from a parking lot a couple of months ago because the parking brake locked on. That was an on-the-road breakdown.
No, it was the car. There was a defect in the High Voltage Junction Box under the rear seats which caused overheating while supercharging. I'd consider it a breakdown, as the owner couldn't continue the trip. (This was fairly similar to the fire in France.)
A few other breakdowns that I can remember:
- A few suspension breakages on near-new Model X. IIRC this was defective control arms.
- A few rear DU breakages on dual motor Model S. This is how it became known that the rear DU is primary, and even if the front DU is still functioning, a defective rear DU won't (necessarily) allow you to keep driving.
- You're not alone to have experienced parking brake lockups. There was a recall, of course, and this was Brembos fault.
- A few cars were delivered with non-functioning supercharging. I've heard of a couple of cases where the owners were stranded, unable to charge their cars on their first road trips.
dandurston
Member
Interesting. That EO000001230 reservation in itself must not be that new since it's got $5g deposits and Tesla moved deposits to $20g almost a week ago. It does appear that there is a single reservation number regardless of the quantity. That seems like a relatively safe assumption, while the sequential order of these numbers is a much bigger assumption at this point.
Guessing the average number of Semi's per reservation is fraught with difficulties, but we can try anyways. Virtually all the reservations we've heard of have been 3-15 Semi's. We heard of an order for 100, and surely there are individual owner-operators that have ordered 1 without making a big fuss. So my guess is that the average is somewhere around 5, but it could be much higher if there are a few big orders.
If we also take a wild guess and say the reservation count might be up to 2000 since that 1230 number is old (and they've been pumping it up in Europe since), then we have 2000 reservations x 5 trucks per = 10k units. Some of those would be 20g reservations, but most would be $5g, so using an average of $7g we get a WAG of 70 million in deposits.
Many many assumptions, but the answers seem reasonable.
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