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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I think there won't be significant lobbying from traditional automakers. Because majority of them still don't think they need to migrate to EV ASAP. They think they can wait 5-10 years for the battery price to come down and supply chain to fill up, then they can swoop in and swap motors into their ICE chassis and keep making $ business as usual. They don't see that Tesla and Chinese EV makers will eat their lunch, dinner, breakfast, afternoon tea, and take their kids ice cream cone in < 5 years.

Cutting U.S. electric vehicle tax credit 'will have an impact': GM
Cutting U.S. electric vehicle tax credit 'will have an impact': GM

I'm a proponent of that staying in" the tax code, Barra said. "That's what we convey to the administration."


Couple weeks back - Michigan senator also wanted EV credits to stay - was in the news
 
Maintenance, maintenance, maintenance is the point.

What did Elon say about the Semi and maintenance?

How frequently do ICE cars require maintenance? Every 5K miles?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2017/12/11/people-are-freaking-out-why-electric-vehicles-might-doom-your-neighborhood-auto-mechanic/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_mechanics-840p:homepage/story&utm_term=.294cb41a43b0

Auto sales force?

Auto parts stores?

Used ICE cars?

Humm, ICE ~ ice cream, icing, iceberg, icebreaker, ice pick. . .

And the coal industry thought they had it bad:-(
 
On cue, according to the attached article (or at least the Google translation), Volvo AB (truck company) and Scania mocked the Tesla Semi, saying battery weight makes it impossible for an EV Semi to be practical for long distance trucking. Konkurrentene håner Teslas lastebil: - Den kan bare frakte potetgullposer
Only good for transporting "bags of potato chips."
We shall see about that ....

I guess this line below the semi pictrure expains all :

“Scania and Volvo doubt that Tesla's truck will be a success. "An impossible combination" do they mention it as. At the same time, they develop their own electric trucks.”

They are desperate to buy time.. make that : all out panic to buy time.
 
The Financial Times reports today that Chinese battery manufacturers produced 31.5GWh of EV batteries in the first 9 months of this year, while take up by car manufacturers was only 14.7GWh in the same period. Some of that is due to a mismatch in chemistries, but it is another clear sign of a glut in the battery market.

(Not from the article, but related sources) In 2016, top Chinese Lithium Ion manufacturers had a total turnover of just under $12B for over 43GWh. With the glut in the market and continued capacity build out, average prices are under relentless downwards pressure. I expect significant consolidation and the emergence of just few super-producers each having several tens of gigawatthours yearly capacity.
 
The Financial Times reports today that Chinese battery manufacturers produced 31.5GWh of EV batteries in the first 9 months of this year, while take up by car manufacturers was only 14.7GWh in the same period. Some of that is due to a mismatch in chemistries, but it is another clear sign of a glut in the battery market.

(Not from the article, but related sources) In 2016, top Chinese Lithium Ion manufacturers had a total turnover of just under $12B for over 43GWh. With the glut in the market and continued capacity build out, average prices are under relentless downwards pressure. I expect significant consolidation and the emergence of just few super-producers each having several tens of gigawatthours yearly capacity.

I presume this is cell production, not packs. I couldn't tell for sure from the article. There's also no definition of what's considered an EV battery. Maybe someone decided to make a bunch of cells with low energy density that no one wanted to use. That's not really a glut, just bad planning/management.
 
I presume this is cell production, not packs. I couldn't tell for sure from the article. There's also no definition of what's considered an EV battery. Maybe someone decided to make a bunch of cells with low energy density that no one wanted to use. That's not really a glut, just bad planning/management.

As I said, part indeed is historical polymer production with demand is shifting to third generation chemistries (government mandate plays a big role) the Production capacity is also shifting to the tune of 10-15% per year however. That’s on top of new capacity coming online which is exclusively in high density chemistries. The large gap can’t be explained away by the chemistry mix alone.

In my opinion a market analysis which does not take serious Chinese production into account is reckless. I see a lot of this in here so that is why I bring up the point repeatedly.
 
Is anyone thinking like me, that this may a good time to sell all stocks?
There's always some stock which will move contrary to the broader market moves. Can you spot it?

Might be a good time to get out of broad-based mutual funds such as index funds -- but I have a bias against mutual funds anyway, so my advice is biased in this regard.

If you actually have expenditures planned within the next couple of years from savings, taking money off the table is a good idea, of course.
 
I think there won't be significant lobbying from traditional automakers. Because majority of them still don't think they need to migrate to EV ASAP. They think they can wait 5-10 years for the battery price to come down and supply chain to fill up, then they can swoop in and swap motors into their ICE chassis and keep making $ business as usual. They don't see that Tesla and Chinese EV makers will eat their lunch, dinner, breakfast, afternoon tea, and take their kids ice cream cone in < 5 years.

China buys more cars than the U.S.

China buys more cars than the E.U.

China drives the automotive industry. Pun intended.
 
I've been thinking like you since 2013.

Things don't make sense but after reading up on several economic theories and models, I came to the conclusion that this current environment is caused by money printing.

Only reason nobody is talking about it is because they don't call it printing anymore.

QE, NIRP etc.

Dig into M1, M2 and M3 supplies and you see they all increase by > 8% per year. Yet here we are, main stream media swamped by who Trump is going to grope next.

That's my guess on what is happening. Then you dig into how much China and European are printing...

So with that in mind, any assets that are not increasing by 8% per year is losing purchasing power. At the place where I live where housing represents > 40% of take home pay, inflation is much higher since jousing costs basically doubled. But oh no, we can't use that in our core inflation data.

Who are we trying to fool?

In a healthy economy we should be constantly increasing the money supply and devaluing money in people's pockets. Much better to encourage people to spend and/or invest the money in real goods and services, rather than hoarding paper. The alternative is deflation, which is historically universally ruinous (there are arguments about the mechanism by which it ruins everything, but it's agreed that it's ruinous).

And this general principle means... it's usually better to own a share of a business which does something real, rather than sit on cash or even bonds.

The exception to this rule of thumb is bear markets, and they're quite interesting...

The inflation reporting is a mess, of course, because different areas have price rises at different rates. The problem we're having right now is that the expanded money supply keeps being sucked up into the richest fraction of the economy, so it's not really having the desired economic effect. It's getting cycled into assets, which causes an asset price boom, but not into consumption, which creates underlying weakness for businesses which sell to consumers. This situation is typically papered over with a lot of consumer borrowing. It tends to blow up like it did in 1929.

I think as a stock-picker that Tesla is in a particularly good position to survive something like this because they are selling products which can actually save people money (solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles), which is not normal for consumer product companies.
 
I have had this fear for some time, but I worry about having it all in cash, much like Causalien noted (if I understood correctly). In January, I was just worried about how the markets would react to the new normal of extreme politics and style of government with the current administration. We rebalanced to move a higher percentage to much safer investments, but still left a lot in equities. I think it's time to re-think again. In our case we'd like to retire in 4 years so we need to be able to make the adjustments required for that in an up or down market. That was also a driver for the earlier rebalancing.
That does require some conservatism. I personally handle this largely by keeping a large reserve of cash sufficient for several years' expenditures, and then allowing it to be depleted if now is not the right time to sell -- so I'm doing individual stock timing. (!) I'm pretty good at this so far but I definitely don't recommend it to other people. More consistent scheduled selling is probably sounder for most people.
 
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Like most overly simplistic "analyses", this suggests a non-solution.

Fact is we will always have unexpected slowdowns, whether due to a moose crossing the road or road construction. Reducing the frequency of these does not really eliminate traffic as long as they are still occurring... and they will still occur.
 
Tesla Wins Info In Fight Over Direct Sales Ban In Mich.
By Linda Chiem

Law360, New York (December 11, 2017, 9:20 PM EST) -- Three Michigan auto dealers must hand over information about their lobbying efforts supporting a state ban on car manufacturers selling vehicles directly to consumers, a federal judge ruled Monday, rejecting their attempt to dodge a July order in Tesla’s lawsuit alleging the ban creates an unconstitutional monopoly.

U.S. District Judge Janet T. Neff denied an appeal from Ann Arbor Automotive, Serra Automotive and Shaheen Chevrolet challenging a magistrate judge’s July 27 order saying they had to comply with subpoena requests from Tesla Inc. for communications the...

Tesla Wins Info In Fight Over Direct Sales Ban In Mich. - Law360
 
In a healthy economy we should be constantly increasing the money supply and devaluing money in people's pockets. Much better to encourage people to spend and/or invest the money in real goods and services, rather than hoarding paper. The alternative is deflation, which is historically universally ruinous (there are arguments about the mechanism by which it ruins everything, but it's agreed that it's ruinous).

And this general principle means... it's usually better to own a share of a business which does something real, rather than sit on cash or even bonds.

The exception to this rule of thumb is bear markets, and they're quite interesting...

The inflation reporting is a mess, of course, because different areas have price rises at different rates. The problem we're having right now is that the expanded money supply keeps being sucked up into the richest fraction of the economy, so it's not really having the desired economic effect. It's getting cycled into assets, which causes an asset price boom, but not into consumption, which creates underlying weakness for businesses which sell to consumers. This situation is typically papered over with a lot of consumer borrowing. It tends to blow up like it did in 1929.

I think as a stock-picker that Tesla is in a particularly good position to survive something like this because they are selling products which can actually save people money (solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles), which is not normal for consumer product companies.

It is something that we have to disagree on. In my opinion, keynesian economy creates hyper inflation and is prone to cycles. It also promotes unnecessary consumptions and forces all coubtry to adapt policies that promotes increasing population.

In a future where ai and robots replaces most workers, deflationary economy is a better answer. How that's going to need to be structured I don't know. But we'll see it in our life. It won't be the end of the world as we've lived in these types of economy far longer than that of inflationary.

It will be an inflation meet ai moment.
 
Average intelligence of a Tesla bear:

Screen Shot 2017-12-12 at 7.53.14 AM.png


I wonder if Tesla bears have lower IQ than bears.
 
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Moderator: continuing sexist joke deleted, along with followups. -- ggr

That's my concern. I'm only selling with the intention of getting back in and I've thought so many times in the past few years to sell since it can't go any higher -- only to be proven wrong -- and being glad I didn't sell. It's much like the property values out here.

I have ventured a few times selling TSLA to buy back later at lower price. The results were ... a mixed bag, sometimes it worked, other times it backfired. At this point in time, I would say it is a risky play, considering that M3 ramp-up is just around the corner. Once news comes out that production bottlenecks are resolved, the race will start to get in on the action and the price will shoot up -- it may have already started if you look at the past week's price action.
 
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On cue, according to the attached article (or at least the Google translation), Volvo AB (truck company) and Scania mocked the Tesla Semi, saying battery weight makes it impossible for an EV Semi to be practical for long distance trucking. Konkurrentene håner Teslas lastebil: - Den kan bare frakte potetgullposer

Only good for transporting "bags of potato chips."

We shall see about that ....

Tesla Semi receives important order of 100 electric trucks from PepsiCo

Mike O‘Connell, the senior director of North American supply chain for PepsiCo subsidiary Frito-Lay, confirmed the order to Reuters today.

The executive says that the company, which operates over 10,000 trucks, is currently analyzing what routes are best suited for Tesla’s electric trucks in North America but he sees “a wide range of uses for lighter loads like snacks or shorter shipments of heavier beverages.”
I think Frito-Lay is just another brand of Potetgull (TM) ? ;) Still, 100 trucks is not to sneeze at. Glad I divested Scania before they went VW. :D
 
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