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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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That is a surprise. I understand not wanting to give away free charge for commercial use, that was a bit weird in my mind always (Tesla subsidizing taxi/uber businesses), but completely forbidding the use is a bit too radical. Slow charging will seriously impact the cars usability for any commercial purpose.

Another interesting question: how will this work with Tesla-network uber-like service ?
Without supercharging that will not work well either. Your car maybe unable to get back to you in reasonable time-frame if it can't supercharge.
 
fwiw, this change does not apply to vehicles which have already been purchased prior to this announcement.
You are correct, I had missed that because the article author chose to omit that little detail and left the impression that it applied to all cars*. You have to actually go to Tesla's official statement to see it:

This Policy applies to all Superchargers worldwide and all Tesla vehicles purchased, either new or used, whether from Tesla or a third party, after December 15, 2017. Tesla may choose to exclude certain Supercharger stations or occasional trips from the scope of this Policy, such as to accommodate specific local circumstances.
* Edit: it may actually be just clumsy wording and not intentional: "After Friday, vehicles used for commercial purposes won’t be allowed to use the company’s Superchargers anymore".
 
You are correct, I had missed that because the article author chose to omit that little detail and left the impression that it applied to all cars*. You have to actually go to Tesla's official statement to see it:

This Policy applies to all Superchargers worldwide and all Tesla vehicles purchased, either new or used, whether from Tesla or a third party, after December 15, 2017. Tesla may choose to exclude certain Supercharger stations or occasional trips from the scope of this Policy, such as to accommodate specific local circumstances.
* Edit: it may actually be just clumsy wording and not intentional: "After Friday, vehicles used for commercial purposes won’t be allowed to use the company’s Superchargers anymore".

I don't think it is clumsy, to me it seems like deliberate misinformation designed to negatively affect the stock price. Other news sources have it right like Tesla introduces new ‘Supercharger Fair Use’ policy to focus on long distance travel and deter commercial use. But as usually the SEC will turn a blind eye to all the official news outlets blatantly doing this.

Michael
 
CARB yesterday approved $140 million for the CVRP (Clean Vehicle Rebate Program):

Air Resources Board OK’s $663 Million for Clean Vehicles

Is that the only source of funding for CVRP? If so, that's only 56k EVs in 2017-18 assuming an average rebate of $2,500. That might be gone before mid-year.

Edit: Did a little more digging. The CVRP has data through Sept. 30, 2017. For the year leading up to that date, 47,903 vehicles received rebates totaling just under $114 million.
 
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Is that the only source of funding for CVRP? If so, that's only 56k EVs in 2017-18 assuming an average rebate of $2,500. That might be gone before mid-year.

Edit: Did a little more digging. The CVRP has data through Sept. 30, 2017. For the year leading up to that date, 47,903 vehicles received rebates totaling just under $114 million.

CVRP funding isn't done once a year at regular intervals. It is irregular. If they run out of money there is a queue created where once money is received those in front of the queue get rebates first.

Electric motorcycles get $900

PHEVs get $1500 rebate.

BEVs get $2500

FCEV get $5000.

Low income folks can get up to $7000 but I think this is extremely rare.

Using your numbers average is $2380
 
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Clean Technica's delivery estimate (470) is way off. Even by InsideEV's estimate there have been 712 up to the end of Nov. My estimate based on VIN sighting is 800-1000 up to the end of Nov. Counting the 1st 2 weeks of Dec, it should be well over 1000 by now.

They’re estimating 4,000+ but unclear how that’s possible. I think it’ll be between 2,000 and 3,000.
 
The credit is phased down over four quarters is it not? So what they said is accurate. (There are 4 quarters in which the credit is "phased down"; Q1: 100%, Q2: 100%, Q3: 50%, Q4: 50%, Q5: 25%, Q6: 25%)

Wasn´t aware that it is flat after the 200,000 limit is reached. That means basically that Tesla can sell as many cars as they can produce for half a year while still getting the rebate?! Should be a BIG incentive to have Model 3 production running at breakneck speed at the point where they´ve sold 200,000.

Just found that on electrek:
Instead, we expect 15,000 to 25,000 available federal tax credits to slip into Q1 2018. It means that they could hit the threshold during the first quarter or Tesla could (and should) time its 200,000th delivery right after the end of the first quarter since the way the phase-out period is set up, buyers still have access to the full credit for the current quarter and another full quarter – meaning they would still have access to the $7,500 credit in Q2 2018 and Q3 2018.

Now it all makes (even more) sense - get 3 production up to speed in Q1, sell as many as they can produce in Q2 and Q3 while moving to non-US deliveries only in Q4. (Maybe I´m just late to the party?) So if things keep progressing nicely, Q2 should be very much fun from an investing point of view.
 
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Wasn´t aware that it is flat after the 200,000 limit is reached. That means basically that Tesla can sell as many cars as they can produce for half a year while still getting the rebate?!

Rebate or full rebate?

I'm repeating the same old but anyway: all cars sold in a quarter that sees 200.000th vehicle sold, get the full $7500 rebate. No matter how many come after that no.200k car until the end of the Q.
The phase out begins on the first day of the next quarter with halving of the rebate amount.

The IRS cuts the credit in half ($3,750) for the following two fiscal quarters, then halves it again ($1,875) for two more quarters. After a full fiscal year of phase-out, the credit disappears.

Say, tesla's production platos at 5k per week on 31st March 2018 and sells its 200.000th car in USA on 1st April 2018. All cars sold/produced in q2 would still get the full 7500 rebate - 5k M3/w times 14 weeks + some 30k MS and MX gives around 100k vehicles that would still get the full rebate in q2. totaling close to 300k tesla with full rebate. I expect tesla will fully game this system and deliver 'surplus' vehicles outside of USA so the USA customers will get the most benefit by delivering the 200k th vehicle at the beging of a Q. A few USA buyers will just have to wait a few weeks longer for their car.

I expect truckloads of articles crying about how much subsidies tesla got out from this program. Because the number will be huge, above three or four billions $$$, never mind the the detail of who exactly got the money. Or not.
 
That is a surprise. I understand not wanting to give away free charge for commercial use, that was a bit weird in my mind always (Tesla subsidizing taxi/uber businesses), but completely forbidding the use is a bit too radical. Slow charging will seriously impact the cars usability for any commercial purpose.

Another interesting question: how will this work with Tesla-network uber-like service ?
Without supercharging that will not work well either. Your car maybe unable to get back to you in reasonable time-frame if it can't supercharge.

That decision includes quite some advantages for Tesla:

- why subsidizing commercial vehicles/ companies? - rather thinking about a future commercial model that creates incremental revenue
- With increased Modell 3s on the road next year the risk of very busy SC and slow charging and customer disappointment is reduced. Protect and subsidize customers.

Last not least and maybe most important:

- Keeping the option open and prepare to launch an autonomous Taxi fleet in the future
- Building another moat for competition like Uber a.o.

The charging Network is highly underestimated and the opportunity for Tesla to build a moat where they want to is a strong competitive edge.

So its good for the SP!
 
Rebate or full rebate?

I'm repeating the same old but anyway: all cars sold in a quarter that sees 200.000th vehicle sold, get the full $7500 rebate. No matter how many come after that no.200k car until the end of the Q.
The phase out begins on the first day of the next quarter with halving of the rebate amount.

Underlined statement is not correct, there is a full rebate quarter after the 200k Q.

From Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

Quarter the 200,000th vehicle is sold: Full
Quarter after the 200,000th vehicle is sold: Full
2nd quarter after: phase out starts at 50%
3rd: 50%
4th: 25%
5th: 25%
4 quarters of phase out starting the 2nd quarter after 200,000th sale. (Technically, one could call it 5 quarters with first quarter at 100%)

Interesting question (to me) what does "sold for use" mean for Tesla? Since they do not have dealers, the only sale is to end customers. Does that mean they can manufacture, stockpile, and then sell vehicle 200k at the start of the quarter?
 
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