2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[DurandalAI]

and in 5-7 years a used Model 3 with 200-300 mile range and junk/sell/recycle the Leaf.
patience grasshopper

Speaking of used Leaf cars, I got mine for $6k, it will pay for itself in about 4 years of use, if I keep it that long. I expect used Leaf prices to drop VERY quickly in 2018 and 2019, to where you will be able to pick up 4 year old used ones for $5k or less on a regular basis.

 

[racer26]

I get some really odd and semi-hostile comments regarding my Leaf.
"What are you going to do when they shut down the coal plants?" I dunno, breathe easier?
"Don't you know that car is just a coal powered car?" Actually it's only 30% coal, the rest comes from natural gas, nuclear, and hydro, thanks.
"What do you do for long trips?" I take my dino burner.
"I bet your electric bill has gone through the roof." I'm actually saving 2/3 of the money versus what I paid in gasoline previously.
"Can it go on the highway?" Yeah, it goes as fast as I need it, the 93mph top end keeps me from speeding too fast.
"Can you drive it in the rain?" Um.... yeah.
"How long does it take to charge?" About 20 seconds for me to plug it in at the end of the day, the charge time is irrelevant for its usage.

All real questions, the only one that I considered genuine is the time to charge question. The rest seem like hostile arguments couched in questions. I can't wait for my Model 3, as I'm sure it will be a lot more peppy than my Leaf. I've found people's opinions change very fast when you stomp on the go pedal from a stop, and the Leaf is anemic in comparison to any base model Tesla.

Speaking as someone who test drove both a 2016 Model S 60D and a 2017 LEAF SV within the last 10 days - yes.

Model S makes LEAF look like a golf cart - BUT - LEAF is indeed pretty peppy compared with most gas-fired grocery getters. Its no performance car, but it will certainly keep pace with the Civics and Corollas of the automotive world without much trouble.

I took several family and friends for rides in the Model S while I had it on an overnight test drive, and of course - everyone has the same reaction to stomping on the go pedal from a stop. Model S 60D can hang with the top performance cars available with 5 digit price tags. Then reminding them that the fast Model S (P100D) is twice as fast again (as 60D), the giggles intensify.

 

[racer26]

Speaking of used Leaf cars, I got mine for $6k, it will pay for itself in about 4 years of use, if I keep it that long. I expect used Leaf prices to drop VERY quickly in 2018 and 2019, to where you will be able to pick up 4 year old used ones for $5k or less on a regular basis.

I wish I could find a used LEAF for that kind of money - Here, the cheapest used high-mileage 5 year old LEAFs are still ~$12k.

I'm considering buying one - and then trading it in when my Model 3 reservation is ready.

I can buy a brand new LEAF S for $24k taxes and registration and everything in. Changes to the incentive programs in my area have made a new LEAF $6500 cheaper than it was 2 years ago, and so the used pricing is all wonky.

 

[scaesare]

Ricer nonsense Squared.

Under body contouring provides all the downforce for modern cars under 100-110 mph.

Including Model S.

Real lip spoiler is just not useful outside of Germany unless you are committing felony.

Or on a high speed track.

I have no skin in this game. But whenever I see such bold assertions without supporting evidence, my contrarian side seeks data.

 

[winfield100]

Speaking of used Leaf cars, I got mine for $6k, it will pay for itself in about 4 years of use, if I keep it that long. I expect used Leaf prices to drop VERY quickly in 2018 and 2019, to where you will be able to pick up 4 year old used ones for $5k or less on a regular basis.

right now in Cape Coral, Florida, on the southwest gulf coast, you can buy any one of 4 used Leaf's for ~$6,000. in 5-7 years used Tesla model 3 will be available and cheap. (i routinely take 1,000+ mile trips so need a long range EV)

 

[gene]

Anaheim Pre Owned Cars - Used Cars - Anaheim CA Dealer

The above link will bring you to the best prices and choice in southern California on used Leaf's, Fiat 500e's, i3's and more. I bought a Leaf from these guys. Joshua was the salesman I used and he is a fan of EV's. They usually have around 60 Leaf's, and almost as many 500e's. I drove my car back from them but they told me they ship all over the country. When I bought my Leaf there last December, I paid $7400 for a 2013, 12 bar, 25k miles Leaf. At that time they only had Leafs. Since then they have been expanding.

 

[FredTMC]

I'd love too see a Cap Raise announcement this week. If it happens at all, I think Wednesday after the close is most likely. Just a wild ass guess.

It's been spooky how pegged TSLA has been to $250 level last week.
Buckle Up, Bitches! Should be fun if it happens.

 

[Bgarret]

TMC predicts oil companies will need to spend $320 Billion to expand their gasoline station network to compete with Tesla home charging!

BREAKING NEWS!!!

Utilizing Math pioneered by savant UBS analyst Colin Langan, the quants at TMC have calculated the Tesla Killer Advantage over the current, antiquated local gas stations when it comes to "fueling" vehicles. If the time to travel to the average gas station is 4 minutes, while the time to travel to your garage is 1 second, then Tesla home charging is 240 times more efficient/convenient than gas stations.

Rex Tillerson, former Exxon CEO and current MIA Secretary of State, when asked to comment said, "Hell yea, that's why I took this gig, so I could divest myself of all that oil stock. You know how expensive it is to put in fuel tanks in every home in America? Hell, in some states to they don't even let you pump your own gas, so that means having an attendant sleeping in a tent on your lawn."

UBS analyst, Colin Langan, when asked to confirm the validity of the math, said, rather heatedly, "That comparison is specious....what person in their right mind would fuel at home, while sleeping in their bed? What self respecting Michigander would miss out on refueling in sub-zero weather? Can you buy Powerball Tickets or Kool Menthol cigarettes at home.....? I didn't think so! This whole home fueling thing is a fad, brought on by haters unfamiliar with the pleasure of visits to modern day convenience Meccas/gas stations. Have you tried the Sausage Biscuit Sandwich at Quick Trip? I don't think you know anything about things you pretend to "analyze". $320 Billion is Absurd!.....Are you gunning for my job?"

Stay tuned as Colin, Mark Spiegel, Steve Bannon and The Entire CNBC morning show get together for a panel discussion on creative uses for extrapolating numbers with no relationship to facts or statistical significance.

Don't mean to be self-referential, but wanted to give thanks to Fred Lambert and Electrek for giving my "Onion-like" take down of Colin a shout out in Electrek....Tesla Superchargers don’t need $8 billion to match gas stations thanks to home charging

 

[jhm]

I'm warming up to the idea of a solar roof on a Model 3. 200W of cells should produce about 1kWh per day. So this makes it comparable to adding 1 kWh to the cars battery and charging it every day. It also can help reduce some of the overheating from sunlight which steals from the range of the battery on a sunny day. So if you are willing to pay $6000 to add 15 kWh to your car's battery, why not spend $400 for a solar roof?

Now what would it cost Tesla. The glass roof is already backed in. The cost of power electronics is already backed in. All they need to add are the cells at <$1/W and some wiring. So I suspect Tesla add 200W for about $200. While this may be just a small, token amount of power, it is cheaper per W than putting panels on your home or even utility scale solar.

So Tesla could provide this as an option for say $500, but they also could just make it standard with the glass roof. It sends a powerful signal to the world that all EVs really do run on renewable power. It also advertises that Tesla has solar roofs for your home too. So I think the marketing value alone would make it worth Tesla absorbing this cost as standard with the glass roof.

 

[dirtyofries]

Tesla made it difficult for hacker geohot to buy a Model S and use his own software to power Autopilot 2.0

I'm not opposed to a verbal ToS for known...offenders.

 

[bonaire]

right now in Cape Coral, Florida, on the southwest gulf coast, you can buy any one of 4 used Leaf's for ~$6,000. in 5-7 years used Tesla model 3 will be available and cheap. (i routinely take 1,000+ mile trips so need a long range EV)

An issue with the fast depreciation is that banks will have a harder time doing "well priced" leases on the Leaf-level and other consumer-level EVs. They got skunked with Volt and Leaf from the start and the residuals were really overblow and some banks who use insurance to guarantee residuals (re-insurance against loss) had to take claims. This is an issue with Tesla must also face with its high-quantity of Lease deals that may occur out in 2018 for Model 3. They may require full purchase for the first 50,000 or so (which I would want to see as a health measure). Banks may want to line up to underwrite purchases but not leases.

 

[racer26]

An issue with the fast depreciation is that banks will have a harder time doing "well priced" leases on the Leaf-level and other consumer-level EVs. They got skunked with Volt and Leaf from the start and the residuals were really overblow and some banks who use insurance to guarantee residuals (re-insurance against loss) had to take claims. This is an issue with Tesla must also face with its high-quantity of Lease deals that may occur out in 2018 for Model 3. They may require full purchase for the first 50,000 or so (which I would want to see as a health measure). Banks may want to line up to underwrite purchases but not leases.

I don't expect any such problems for Model 3.

Model S has clearly demonstrated that it is unlike Leaf and Volt, and that its resale value is consistently high - 3-5 year old Model S are still selling for 60-70% of their new price tags. I expect Model 3 will be similar, or even better - if Tesla Network allows a Model 3 to earn income, its resale value should stay high for quite some time.

 

[Mike Smith]

Last week I pointed out some erroneous information coming from the dark forces at Seeking Alpha, so I think it's only fair to point out some errors from the good folks at Teslarati. The author is mixing up positive/negative earnings numbers as well as confusing revenues for earnings.

"Tesla issued its 2016 Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, February 22, 2017 and reported $0.69 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the Zacks’ consensus estimate of $0.43 by $0.26. As 2017 began, Tesla stocks had accrued a number of positive analyst reports and had continued to rise since the 2016 presidential election. The firm earned $2.29 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $2.21 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.87 earnings per share."

Wall St. can't make up its mind about Tesla: TSLA ups and downs this quarter

 

[vgrinshpun]

Panasonic increasing its HIT (Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin Layer) solar module product warranty from 15 to 25 years should help with the book value of SolarCity PPA that are installed starting in 2017.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla made it difficult for hacker geohot to buy a Model S and use his own software to power Autopilot 2.0

I'm not opposed to a verbal ToS for known...offenders.

The body of that article doesn't seem to match the headline.

It appears Tesla's legal team voice concerned over intellectual property infringement. Given the recent high-profile cases of IP theft over autopilot, that seems to be a reasonable concern when a competitor attempts to obtain your product containing your IP.

It does not appear that there was any attempt to stop Hotz from interfacing his own software stack to the Tesla HW, as the headline states.

 

[racer26]

The body of that article doesn't seem to match the headline.

It appears Tesla's legal team voice concerned over intellectual property infringement. Given the recent high-profile cases of IP theft over autopilot, that seems to be a reasonable concern when a competitor attempts to obtain your product containing your IP.

It does not appear that there was any attempt to stop Hotz from interfacing his own software stack to the Tesla HW, as the headline states.

I'm not sure why Tesla would in any way be concerned about their IP with respect to what Hotz could do in possession of one of their cars.

Interfacing his own stack to the Tesla AP2 hardware shouldn't constitute IP infringement, and if Tesla does security properly, he shouldn't be able to see or access any IP-sensitive information from the car's computers.

 

[scaesare]

I'm not sure why Tesla would in any way be concerned about their IP with respect to what Hotz could do in possession of one of their cars.

Interfacing his own stack to the Tesla AP2 hardware shouldn't constitute IP infringement, and if Tesla does security properly, he shouldn't be able to see or access any IP-sensitive information from the car's computers.

My post agrees that interfacing his own SW to the car's sensors should be a non-issue.

I disagree that IP can't be obtained if one is clever/determined enough when you are in possession of a example article. Reverse engineering is accepted/allowable... utilizing the same mechanisms (rather than clean-room duplication of results) may have infringement ramifications.

 

[racer26]

My post agrees that interfacing his own SW to the car's sensors should be a non-issue.

I disagree that IP can't be obtained if one is clever/determined enough when you are in possession of a example article. Reverse engineering is accepted/allowable... utilizing the same mechanisms (rather than clean-room duplication of results) may have infringement ramifications.

Utilizing the same mechanisms would only be disallowed if Tesla could a) prove they hold a patent covering the mechanism and that Hotz does not have a license to use the covered mechanism or b) prove that Hotz infringed their copyright on the design (which basically requires it to be identical).

The part I would expect Tesla to be most concerned about is the data driving AP's neural net - which Hotz shouldn't be able to get from the car.

 

[phigment]

Utilizing the same mechanisms would only be disallowed if Tesla could a) prove they hold a patent covering the mechanism and that Hotz does not have a license to use the covered mechanism or b) prove that Hotz infringed their copyright on the design (which basically requires it to be identical).

The part I would expect Tesla to be most concerned about is the data driving AP's neural net - which Hotz shouldn't be able to get from the car.

What about the high resolution maps? Black/white listed items of interest?

 

[JRP3]

Reminder - how many people live in condos and apartments that have no access to at-home charging? That is the down-market that EVs must go to in order to actually grow substantially.

Not true at all, there is plenty of market for EV's to grab before they must go after people who have limited charging options.

Some 25-30ish person getting by on barely a living wage in an apartment shared with a room-mate who wants an EV does what in terms of charging?

Who cares? The person you describe can't afford a new car anyway.

Well, good points. However, if you're paying for looks, I'd rather have a glass roof or a pano. Wide-open nice view to me is better looking from the inside rather than a non-opening solar roof.

As I've posted elsewhere I spend no time looking up at the roof of my car when driving, regardless if it's metal or glass. I hope others do the same. Pano and glass roofs hold no interest for me, though I do realize others seem to enjoy them.

FIsker's was $2500. That's a lot of cash to pay for at-best 180W at peak sun.

Yes, but, that was Fisker. Do you think that just maybe a company with it's own solar panel production just might be able to get the cost down a tiny bit?