2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[doctoxics]

Included in the Bloomberg article are two charts. One forecasts Tesla battery cost in $/Kwh over next four years with the cost forecast for various competitors. I don't know if what is shown is reasonable for other companies shown, but does anyone on the forum believe that Ford, starting from nothing at start of 2017 will have batteries only $20 more per Kwh than Tesla by 2020? That seems ludicrous and makes me wonder who came up with the projection and how.

My recollection is that JB Straubel projected Tesla battery pack cost at less than $100/kwh by 2020. The Bloomberg article states cell cost.

 

[3Victoria]

Come on @vgrinshpun, cut the nonsense! We all know that TE's value is ZERO!

And it doesn't matter how many tImes it doubles or triples, its still will be zero. QED.

 

[neroden]

Would you ever expect anything major cool positive thing, to come straight into C-class without making it to S-class first?

Additionally, adding new tech to S/X first is a risk mitigation strategy for 3.

There will be absolutely nothing new in 3 that is not already in S or X by the time 3 rolls off the line. You can bet on that!

I'm not sure about that. Tesla's philosophy is to move as fast as they possibly can. If they've designed Model 3 for a HUD -- but Model S has to be redesigned to accomodate a HUD -- I rather expect the HUD will show up on Model 3 first. In the meantime, people will still buy Model S because *they can get it a lot sooner than Model 3*, given the enormous waiting lists for Model 3. Tesla will probably have to cut the price of Model S but there will be loads of room to do that.

Given the existing demand for Model 3, I suspect we don't see the final interior announcement until mere days before people start being asked to configure their cars -- maybe 2 weeks. This minimizes the Osborne effect. By the time the Osborning is underway, Model 3 is delivering in bulk and Tesla can take the hit to the gross margin on Model S. Within six months the refreshed Model S comes out with the HUD and Tesla can jack prices up again.

Not an ideal scenario, but if putting in a HUD requires an interior redesign and they've already designed Model 3 to have a HUD, it's the only strategy which manages cash properly.

 

[racer26]

I answered this months ago. When 100,000 (or even 80,000) Model 3 come off the production line in one quarter, are delivered, and the profits are booked on the quarterly report. That's it. Before then, the shorts can keep telling themselves stories. After that, I think it will be too hard for them to delude themselves.

I think it comes sooner. When they can see that battery cost from volume production comes down, then the writing is on the wall. This will be before any model 3s are made. Have to capitulate before the ink dries.

Other industries looking closely at battery cost: all other car manufacturers, current utilities, manufacturers with factories, anyone hoping to sell oil.

This is kind of my feeling on it:

I feel like we've already reached a point where continuing to disbelieve is supremely delusional. I can't comprehend what additional evidence they want to see to confirm that TSLA is indeed going to do what they say successfully (a bit late still counts as successfully). Yet we remain one of the most shorted NASDAQ100 components.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I'm not sure about that. Tesla's philosophy is to move as fast as they possibly can. If they've designed Model 3 for a HUD -- but Model S has to be redesigned to accomodate a HUD -- I rather expect the HUD will show up on Model 3 first. In the meantime, people will still buy Model S because *they can get it a lot sooner than Model 3*, given the enormous waiting lists for Model 3. Tesla will probably have to cut the price of Model S but there will be loads of room to do that.

Given the existing demand for Model 3, I suspect we don't see the final interior announcement until mere days before people start being asked to configure their cars -- maybe 2 weeks. This minimizes the Osborne effect. By the time the Osborning is underway, Model 3 is delivering in bulk and Tesla can take the hit to the gross margin on Model S. Within six months the refreshed Model S comes out with the HUD and Tesla can jack prices up again.

Not an ideal scenario, but if putting in a HUD requires an interior redesign and they've already designed Model 3 to have a HUD, it's the only strategy which manages cash properly.

This is generally how I feel as well.

I expect that once Model 3 is being produced and delivered in volume that Model S and X sales will level off or even decline to a more "normal" split of luxury model versus affordable model split as seen at other automakers. My reasoning is that Model 3 is going to be that good...

I think Tesla will make good margins on loaded Model 3s and doesn't really care if it takes away some sales from S and X as long as the world is transitioning to BEVs and away from fossil fuels en masse.

Mike

 

[Alketi]

Not an ideal scenario, but if putting in a HUD requires an interior redesign and they've already designed Model 3 to have a HUD, it's the only strategy which manages cash properly.

All possible, however recall that Tesla hired Volvo's interior designer. What demand levers can we imagine for the S/X near term?

- 100D battery pack
- Enabling new autopilot features
- Interior/HUD

The HUD, without oversimplifying it too much, is just a projector (lens) inserted into the dash. The rest is software.

My guess is that the HUD appears in the S/X soon after its shown in the final Model 3 reveal. Early Q2.

 

[AlMc]

All possible, however recall that Tesla hired Volvo's interior designer. What demand levers can we imagine for the S/X near term?

- 100D battery pack
- Enabling new autopilot features
- Interior/HUD

The HUD, without simplifying too much, is just a projector (lens) inserted into the dash. The rest is software.

My guess is that the HUD appears in the S/X soon after its shown in the final Model 3 reveal. Early Q2.

Yes, HUD soon after April 15. The last date you can take delivery of SC for life on S/X ordered prior to Dec 31/Jan 15

 

[Papafox]

HUD = driver assist. No need for HUD in full self driving. So I don't see why Tesla needs an HUD at all except maybe to watch movies??

People here have already pointed out the cost advantage and simplicity of HUD (Heads Up Display) but there's much more to the technology. In aircraft, a HUD allows the pilot to simultaneously consider the instrument readings while viewing what is transpiring outside the windshield. In airliners, HUDs have been used for instrument approaches in low weather because at some point a pilot transitions from instrument references to visual references for the landing, and the HUD allows for both the instrument indications and the outside references to be considered simultaneously. In automotive applications, the HUD will allow the driver to monitor speed and essential autopilot cues while keeping an eye on the road. It will be very interesting to see if the Tesla HUD has a method for registering the position of the driver's eyes, so that it can paint pertinent autopilot cues on the windshield in just the right places. This will not only be cool and cost-effective, but it will be a big safety improvement over looking inside to reference such information.

 

[hoang51]

You obviously haven't spent enough time engaging with the shorts. They'll hang on far longer than that, well into Model 3 production.

That's a good thing, it'll catapult TSLA higher when they have to cover due to their stupidity along with those half @$$ analysts that uses Twitter to spew their junk.

 

[SBenson]

I'm not sure about that. Tesla's philosophy is to move as fast as they possibly can. If they've designed Model 3 for a HUD -- but Model S has to be redesigned to accomodate a HUD -- I rather expect the HUD will show up on Model 3 first. In the meantime, people will still buy Model S because *they can get it a lot sooner than Model 3*, given the enormous waiting lists for Model 3. Tesla will probably have to cut the price of Model S but there will be loads of room to do that.

Given the existing demand for Model 3, I suspect we don't see the final interior announcement until mere days before people start being asked to configure their cars -- maybe 2 weeks. This minimizes the Osborne effect. By the time the Osborning is underway, Model 3 is delivering in bulk and Tesla can take the hit to the gross margin on Model S. Within six months the refreshed Model S comes out with the HUD and Tesla can jack prices up again.

Not an ideal scenario, but if putting in a HUD requires an interior redesign and they've already designed Model 3 to have a HUD, it's the only strategy which manages cash properly.

You are making a very big assumption that modifying S/X interior is prohibitively difficult or expensive.

Tesla delivered AP 2.0 with ~2 week downtime. Why would HUD need much more down time than that? If factory downtime is not the issue, what is?

 

[3Victoria]

My prediction, FWIW, is that the S +/- X will be upgraded to HUD coincident with the final 3 reveal. End of q1 looks like good timing for the refresh and fits well for the 3, since it is the anniversary of the first reveal. At that point we will have seen the final form of the 3. Letting people configure at that point would inform Tesla regarding option preferences and allow production planning.

 

[Drax7]

This is generally how I feel as well.

I expect that once Model 3 is being produced and delivered in volume that Model S and X sales will level off or even decline to a more "normal" split of luxury model versus affordable model split as seen at other automakers. My reasoning is that Model 3 is going to be that good...

I think Tesla will make good margins on loaded Model 3s and doesn't really care if it takes away some sales from S and X as long as the world is transitioning to BEVs and away from fossil fuels en masse.

Mike

Agree and I would add,
that tesla will continue to disrupt the luxury market until it has competition in the Lux class.

 

[GoTslaGo]

@AudubonB is at the Gigafactory:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

 

[3Victoria]

As requested by @AudubonB

Hello All:
I am at the Higsfactory right now and will be providing as full a Tour Report as I can; please give me a day.
To answer: we are NOT obtaining ANY exclusive information; there is not any "unfair" advantage so accruing.
Not only that, but the massive volume and price spike occurred long before any event started.

Cheers to all - and it's a bit difficult to post so please cross-post this to the other thread (you have my permission...)

 

[Green Pete]

Has no news come out of the event yet? Everything ive seen was before the event started.

 

[3Victoria]

Mr Musk to speak momentarily.
Presumably, all of you have seen Tesla's blog report of this morning...

 

[dandurston]

Currently a "New new order" will include both a named customer order and a restocking order for a Tesla store. They can double orders by just ordering a new set of cars with new features like the AP2.0 causing "more orders in Q4"

I have proven it does based on prior threads.

And it should. As buyers take off old inventory from lots, they need replacement. Inventory cars "will end up in customer hands eventually" and are in-transit. Also, this matches supportive ways Tesla words things.

I'm not convinced of this. Please post a link to your prior "proof".

I think you've reached a false conclusion on causality from a true correlation. Indeed inventory cars need replacement when they are sold, but the "order" is when a customer buys the inventory car, not when Tesla decides to build one for inventory. Orders and inventory builds will be correlated if Tesla is cycling inventory, but this is not causative but rather a byproduct of actual sales. I highly doubt Tesla produces excess inventory and then label this unsold production as a boost in "orders".

 

[AudubonB]

Easy answer: I'm looking at the Model 3 right now as I post this...it really and truly is a beautiful vehicle. Effectively unchanged from the initial reveal.
And as blogged premarket, battery production began today.
A FULL report when I'm home - won't be until vet late tomorrow at earliest.

 

[AudubonB]

vet? Ignore that...

 

[erthquake]

Easy answer: I'm looking at the Model 3 right now as I post this...it really and truly is a beautiful vehicle. Effectively unchanged from the initial reveal.
And as blogged premarket, battery production began today.
A FULL report when I'm home - won't be until vet late tomorrow at earliest.

Is it a different Model 3 from the first three? Interior?