2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[austinEV]

For those of you concerned about the lack of HUD I'd suggest trying what I did today. Mount your smart phone in the approximate position of the upper left hand corner of the Model 3 display and run a GPS speedometer app. I found it quite an easy adjustment to glance slightly down and to the right instead of slightly further down and to the left where my current speedometer is in my car. You can even cover your existing display with some paper so you aren't tempted to look at it. I'm one of those people who previously thought I'd never buy a vehicle with only a center display, but I also always try to be flexible. Bottom line, it's just not an issue, the upper left hand corner of the Model 3 display will be an easy adjustment.

Everyone keeps talking about the speedo. Agree that this can be off to the side and is used less than you think. Its the autopilot feedback that I think needs to be in front or on the HUD. This will be needed for years at least, and maybe desirable forever just to feel good that your car is seeing things properly. I think it's hubris to think that FSD will be fast enough to not matter.

First, as a disclaimer, I don't think Tesla needs some exotic solution to displaying data beyond what we've already seen for the Model 3 and Tesla to both continue with tremendous success.

Now for speculation of an improbable exotic new design that "still has one display", as per Elon, but displays it twice.

1) Look at this video from the Model 3 reveal test rides and pay attention to the middle of the top of the windshield. Would this reflection be there in full if the display screen were not tilted quite a bit to make it so? How high up the windshield are ones eyes looking while driving with the use of current AP technology vs. where they are looking when just driving oneself?

2) Remember that Elon said the first application of the new "Tesla Glass" in house technology group would be in the Model 3 (though, of course, it could roll out at the same time in the S and X so as not to run counter with the philosophy of the flagships getting new tech first or Elon's tweet about nothing substantially new in the Model 3 not seen in S or X).

Tesla Model 3 will feature new type of glass developed in-house, Elon Musk confirms ‘Tesla Glass’ tech group

3) In relation to media coverage, or other vehicle makers efforts, I've seen times where Elon has exhibited what could be called hubris, annoyance, or even contempt, but, never have I seen him exhibit it to owners of Teslas or TSLA. Over the years those two groups have asked a pile of fundamentally uninformed and/or well off the beaten path questions, and every time I've seen it, Elon gave gracious, patient answers. I'm reasonably optimistic the "you wont care" tweet today wasn't about arrogance or annoyance, but rather his strong confidence that what we don't know will delight us.

All this has me wondering if "Tesla Glass" tech is to be used in a portion of the windshield that can somehow capture (and reverse) the image on the screen we've already seen in the prototypes in a way that is clear and dependable in all conditions (ie. weather and lighting) and that people inside Tesla feel is better than conventional offerings... 4) a bit in the direction of a spaceship feel : )

Interesting. I don't think there would be an attempt to use the same face, since the angle would be awkward, but I wonder if a projector could just be on the other side. I notice the model 3 dashes really aren't designed for a HUD so I had dismissed it further. You are making me wonder again.

Looks like 8.1 is starting to install in the fleet this morning. If I'm not mistaken this will allow a greater portion of Q4 '16 and Q1 '17 Enhanced Autopilot revenue recognition. Not sure if it gets them to 100% (not sure if 4 camera's are active or not). So that's something like $75m-$150m if napkin math is right.

The release notes talk about how the cameras need to self calibrate. That suggests strongly that there are new cameras in play. If they are using 4, I think they could recognize all the revenue. In fact, the timing suggests that was the whole plan. Until I learn some evidence otherwise, I am considering that revenue added in for Q1, which is hugely bullish.

 

[Krugerrand]

This really feels like the lack of center console thing. Buyers, to Teslas surprise did care about the storage

No. SOME buyers cared, others did not. And even buyers who cared still bought a Tesla without a center console.

 

[WarpedOne]

And there are buyers who hate current console. And there are would-be-buyers had Model S not have that console.

 

[austinEV]

And there are buyers who hate current console. And there are would-be-buyers had Model S not have that console.

(for the record I am pro-HUD/cluster but...) With the talk of people saying no cluster is a dealbreaker, it is worth recalling how polarizing the 17" touch screen was when the Model S first came out. A lot of people said the lack of physical buttons was a dealbreaker. Others wondered if it was safe. I think I would not be happy about it in my daily driver, but enough people will be ok with it that it is not concerning as an investor.

 

[RobStark]

No. SOME buyers cared, others did not. And even buyers who cared still bought a Tesla without a center console.

Again, when Tesla offered an optional console the overwhelming majority of buyers chose to buy the console. That is why Tesla chose to make it standard and streamline production.

Porsche will have the Mission E at dealer lots within the next 5 years.

And a slew of competitors are coming after that.

Tesla can't dictate to customers what options they want or need forever. Right now if you want a vastly superior powertrain and nationwide fast charging network you have no options. So buyers buy Teslas even if they dislike or hate this particular feature or lack thereof. Unlike some on this board, Tesla can't really afford to tell these people " If you don't like our car as is F off and buy something else." Because eventually they will. In droves.

 

[Reciprocity]

HUD, no HUD, Second screen or not; they are going to sell a crap load of these cars and as a stockholder, I care more about them being profitable and delivered on-time then I care about a bunch of fanboi's whining. If 20% of the reservation holders cancel their reservation, it would be almost meaningless as they cannot fulfill half the reservations they have in the next 12 months.

I think once people drive this car and see it around town, they will keep their reservations and they will cope and adapt to the single screen. I can remember thinking a 17" screen in the center with no mechanical buttons was stupid, but having used it... I don't hate it. But I also do not love it. It is what it is and it works, which is the most important thing. I also remember thinking how dumb Apple was to not have a styles(Palm) or physical keyboard (Blackberry) and that device changed the world as much as any invention in the last century. Its enough for me that its a very sexy, quick and economical (When considering TCO) fully electric, decent range vehicle.

Two things are clear, I am very bad and determining what is going to work and I need to trust in the folks who are clearly closer to this then I am. I trust in Musk and Tesla. If I didn't, I wouldn't have invested so much in them.

 

[EinSV]

Re HUD: There was no HUD at the reveal and by the time of Elon's "spaceship-like controls" tweet on April 3, 2016 Tesla already had 300,000 or so reservations.

So it is clearly not a "must have" for the vast majority of buyers and without it Tesla will be production constrained for a long time to come.

If it turns out they can increase demand by including a HUD they can always add it later. That remains to be seen since we haven't seen or experienced the final interior layout, much less AP2/FSD in all its glory.

IMHO the HUD issue is irrelevant to investment decisions.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Audi's unions demand electric model for main German plant

Labor leaders at Volkswagen's (VOWG_p.DE) luxury Audi brand have asked top management to assign production of an all-electric model to the carmaker's main plant in Germany, concerned they might lose out as electric cars gain in importance.

 

[racer26]

Audi's unions demand electric model for main German plant

Exciting.

 

[JRP3]

Exciting.

Tesla killer

 

[neroden]

Again, when Tesla offered an optional console the overwhelming majority of buyers chose to buy the console. That is why Tesla chose to make it standard and streamline production.

Porsche will have the Mission E at dealer lots within the next 5 years.

And a slew of competitors are coming after that.

Well, sure, in FIVE YEARS. I'm not actually sure the stock will be a good investment in three years. But Tesla's got a wide open market with no real competition for 2018 and, as it appears now, 2019.

 

[JRP3]

I also remember thinking how dumb Apple was to not have a styles(Palm) or physical keyboard (Blackberry) and that device changed the world as much as any invention in the last century.

Same. I had to have a key pad, until I actually used a smartphone without one.

 

[JRP3]

Its the autopilot feedback that I think needs to be in front or on the HUD.

How much time is spent looking at that, and wouldn't that time be better spent looking at the road?

 

[austinEV]

How much time is spent looking at that, and wouldn't that time be better spent looking at the road?

Well, an AP1 owner should weigh in, but it shows you where the car thinks other cars are. An attentive driver would be comparing that with reality. We get all defensive when a driver gets in an accident "with AP enabled" and quickly say he should have been paying attention. This is the sort of thing they should be paying attention to. With less feedback more drivers will just run let AP make a mistake. We aren't to the point where it is safer to just let the computer drive, yet the M3 is optimized for that. It will probably be ok...

 

[Lump]

Cowen
Tesla to report 23,000 vehicles delivered in first quarter

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is likely to report next week the delivery of 23,000 vehicles in the first quarter, analysts at Cowen said in a note Wednesday. That estimate is on the low end of expectations the Silicon Valley electric-car maker would deliver 23,000 to 24,500 vehicles in the quarter, the analysts said. Tesla is expected to report its first-quarter deliveries early next month. The Cowen analysts also said they expect Tesla to tap markets for additional capital this year "to build a cushion for 2018 capex needs that will likely be quite steep." They kept their sell rating on the stock and a price target of $155. "As Tesla's Model 3 ramp proceeds, we continue to have more questions than answers about the company and the vagueness of details coupled with lack of disclosure from management is sure to raise eyebrows with investors," they said. "We continue to believe Tesla shares are an overvalued show-me story."

Tesla to report 23,000 vehicles delivered in first quarter: analysts

 

[JRP3]

Well, an AP1 owner should weigh in, but it shows you where the car thinks other cars are. An attentive driver would be comparing that with reality. We get all defensive when a driver gets in an accident "with AP enabled" and quickly say he should have been paying attention. This is the sort of thing they should be paying attention to. With less feedback more drivers will just run let AP make a mistake. We aren't to the point where it is safer to just let the computer drive, yet the M3 is optimized for that. It will probably be ok...

I guess I'm thinking an attentive driver should be paying attention to the real world, not the display showing what the car thinks is happening.

 

[Mike Smith]

Cowen
Tesla to report 23,000 vehicles delivered in first quarter

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is likely to report next week the delivery of 23,000 vehicles in the first quarter, analysts at Cowen said in a note Wednesday. That estimate is on the low end of expectations the Silicon Valley electric-car maker would deliver 23,000 to 24,500 vehicles in the quarter, the analysts said. Tesla is expected to report its first-quarter deliveries early next month. The Cowen analysts also said they expect Tesla to tap markets for additional capital this year "to build a cushion for 2018 capex needs that will likely be quite steep." They kept their sell rating on the stock and a price target of $155. "As Tesla's Model 3 ramp proceeds, we continue to have more questions than answers about the company and the vagueness of details coupled with lack of disclosure from management is sure to raise eyebrows with investors," they said. "We continue to believe Tesla shares are an overvalued show-me story."

Tesla to report 23,000 vehicles delivered in first quarter: analysts

This is insane for three unique reasons (amazingly):

1) Tencent would very likely buy another 5% if TSLA even got around $200, never mind $155.

2) They're listing a capital raise as a main catalyst for a major drop, even though they've never caused any drop in the past.

3) The only other reason for selling given is vagueness of Tesla's forecasting. Even if it was vague, which it really isn't - they've even told us how many parts they've ordered for model 3 for each month and gave a full year forecast for next year, how does vague forecasting cause a stock to almost drop in half? Just because you find it frustrating? Hang your head in shame Cowen.

 

[racer26]

Cowen
Tesla to report 23,000 vehicles delivered in first quarter

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is likely to report next week the delivery of 23,000 vehicles in the first quarter, analysts at Cowen said in a note Wednesday. That estimate is on the low end of expectations the Silicon Valley electric-car maker would deliver 23,000 to 24,500 vehicles in the quarter, the analysts said. Tesla is expected to report its first-quarter deliveries early next month. The Cowen analysts also said they expect Tesla to tap markets for additional capital this year "to build a cushion for 2018 capex needs that will likely be quite steep." They kept their sell rating on the stock and a price target of $155. "As Tesla's Model 3 ramp proceeds, we continue to have more questions than answers about the company and the vagueness of details coupled with lack of disclosure from management is sure to raise eyebrows with investors," they said. "We continue to believe Tesla shares are an overvalued show-me story."

Tesla to report 23,000 vehicles delivered in first quarter: analysts

Seems to me the expectation ought to be 23,500 to 25,000 (half of managements 47-50k 1H17 guidance).

Not sure where Cowen is getting their idea of 23k from though. Seems like a number pulled from their posteriors?

 

[azaz]

So it wasn't my intention to just get in a back and forth with TMC members cause I value the input here a lot. Let me clarify my position a bit.

I'm a big believer in Tesla/Elon. I've invested an embarrassing portion of my savings in TSLA. I haven't sold a single share so far, not doing that till it hits $400 at least.

However I don't think Elon/Tesla are infallible when it comes to design decisions. I think specifically in this instance if we take Elon at his word/tweets he's not making the argument that looking to the right isn't an inconvenience, rather he's saying that people won't look for that info cause FSD. Specifically he used the example of a taxi. I think, that if FSD really is the basis for this decision then it shows hubris. I think it's more like 3-5 years for regulatory approval. We are a decent amount of time from entering in to a taxi like relationship with our personal vehicles. And for as long as if I've followed Elon the one thing he struggles with is meeting his timelines.

And like some design decisions (seats) Tesla has made in the past, if it turns out that buyers prefer then I expect them to adapt quickly because it's an easy problem to solve.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, an AP1 owner should weigh in, but it shows you where the car thinks other cars are. An attentive driver would be comparing that with reality. We get all defensive when a driver gets in an accident "with AP enabled" and quickly say he should have been paying attention. This is the sort of thing they should be paying attention to. With less feedback more drivers will just run let AP make a mistake. We aren't to the point where it is safer to just let the computer drive, yet the M3 is optimized for that. It will probably be ok...

I am an AP1 owner, and I drive by having my hands lightly on the wheel, and looking far forward.
I don't think I check car's view of the world often, if at all, except to confirm id AP is on/off, what is legal speed limit and what is AP speed limit.

Otherwise, it's really what car does vs. what is the real world. And yeah, that means I sometime brake before AP does, without checking if car sees another car in front of me or not.

I drive in a really thick stop-and-go traffic downtown Toronto, on one of the quickest avenues, so when traffic opens, rate of acceleration that AP does is kinda ferocious, and I don't find I have time to be checking display at all...