Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
4) neither admitting nor denying "Guerilla chargers" who may or may not live in apartments, running 10-12 gauge 'hidden' extension cords gaining ~1.2kWh/hr spotted 'here and there', 50ft out to the car who pay for their electric usage as apartment managers get "up to speed".
and i am not advocating anything illegal

Many apartments have a shared laundry room area that would allow higher charge rates potentially. Just need an out of order sign.
 
4) neither admitting nor denying "Guerilla chargers" who may or may not live in apartments, running 10-12 gauge 'hidden' extension cords gaining ~1.2kWh/hr spotted 'here and there', 50ft out to the car who pay for their electric usage as apartment managers get "up to speed".
and i am not advocating anything illegal

Interesting. Of course Tesla does not really need to be able to sell to everybody to attain an impressive share of the car market. However, I expect that most apartment building managers and parking garage owners will soon commence the process of installing electrical outlets for car charging, if they have not already done so.
 
perhaps more appropo
"Experiencing A Significant Gravitas Shortfall" or "Sweet and Full of Grace"
etc List of spacecraft in the Culture series - Wikipedia
Its fun to think about which of these will be used for Boca Chica's ASDS.

I especially think "What are the Civilian Applications?" is fitting for the first orbital-class non-governmental/military spaceport.

(Also like "Poke it with a Stick")
 
(David Einhorn, founder and CEO of Greenlight CapitalReuters)
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with its first quarter letter to investors. " data-reactid="38" style="margin-top: 0.8em; color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">(David Einhorn, founder and CEO of Greenlight CapitalReuters)
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with its first quarter letter to investors.

The fund delivered 1.3% net of fees in the first quarter, below the S&P 500 index return of 6.1%. Einhorn identified his short position in Tesla as one of the biggest losers in the period.

"It was a difficult quarter to be short the bubble basket, and TSLA in particular," he said.

EINHORN ON TESLA: 'We expect these bubbles to pop'

Ouch.
 
(David Einhorn, founder and CEO of Greenlight CapitalReuters)
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with its first quarter letter to investors. " data-reactid="38" style="margin-top: 0.8em; color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">(David Einhorn, founder and CEO of Greenlight CapitalReuters)
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with its first quarter letter to investors.

The fund delivered 1.3% net of fees in the first quarter, below the S&P 500 index return of 6.1%. Einhorn identified his short position in Tesla as one of the biggest losers in the period.

"It was a difficult quarter to be short the bubble basket, and TSLA in particular," he said.

EINHORN ON TESLA: 'We expect these bubbles to pop'

Ouch.
Long time ago I found out Einhorn is not an intelligent investor. I make a list of dumb guys. This approach really helps.

Dumb investors like Einhorn tend to remain dumb. They rarely make intelligent comments. Also, these guys are willing to reveal that they are dumb, Mark Spiegel is the best example. I guess this reinforce the first point.

I may not be smart, if I were him, at least I would dig deeper to find out why I got wrong on Tesla.
 
Last edited:

If bears want to think realistically they should be thinking about Chinese competition, including the German R&D and production in China that is very rapidly accelerating their learning curve.
Frankly they can ignore GM, FiatChrysler and maybe Ford because all three are very slow adopters and still see 'compliance cars' rather than open market competition. One very good data point supporting that is CharIN which is bent on developing global fast changing networks. These factors are competitive threat to Tesla. The Chinese makers themselves will be but Lucid and the like are probably to about to become one.

Several times I've posted on these subjects quoting various sources. Quite a few of us have done so. Only a foolish bull ignores reality and fails to understand risks.
Repeatedly posting and quoting sources doesn't make those incorrect statements correct.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TradingInvest
Interesting. Of course Tesla does not really need to be able to sell to everybody to attain an impressive share of the car market. However, I expect that most apartment building managers and parking garage owners will soon commence the process of installing electrical outlets for car charging, if they have not already done so.
there is or may be, a small, partially hidden, subculture of college students and apartment dwellers who may or may not be "guerilla chargers" not needing a lot of range, just some, who may discretely charge, akin to the time 10 - 15 or so years back of folks who would put up PV arrays and just turn them on, somewhat legally, while awaiting permission. ie, there may be more than you realize.
(If you looked at the campus where I worked prior to retirement, there was a significant contingent of EV users of tiny short range vehicles to full blown cars. It was "illegal to charge" but some may have. now it is legal to charge, at restricted spots, growing in number, and a year ago there were well over 100 cars and an unknown number of smaller vehicles that used less than a coffee pot of electricity, each. or less), not counted, but restless and growing in number at a non linear rate, but many of those here know that
 
the problem i have is although i expect a strong beat, someone who was closely following tesla and on the solarcity 10k early would have started to figure out a beat was coming as early as mid march. that beat would have been virtually guaranteed on the higher delivery number. we've moved 70 points since march, 25 points since the delivery number was announced. some portion of a beat has been priced. this mutes my expectation for the post-earnings move a bit (which may be wrong!).

the 315s when i priced them were around $10 for 5/19. that requires a move to 345 for a 3x gain. although that sounds like a lot, it's actually a large move for a relatively modest 300% gain. the pricing just doesn't seem so attractive.

on the other hand, i feel that the likelihood of the stock revisiting 280-290 is low, because a gaap eps beat followed by a chance for another gaap profit brings the index frontrunning into play. for most prices in the 310-330 area the in the money's give a better way to participate.

i have also been contemplating selling some puts, althuogh that's not really my style. i prefer trades where downside is limited and upside is large.

@luvb2b Any specific reason why you are focusing on itm for weeklies for er upside instead of just wagering less but go otm at say $315?
 
i have a small trading position, and i could close some of that. i would be too fearful of selling my core holdings, because i think there's a chance there is a breakaway move that gives nothing but higher prices to re-enter. i'll refer you to the story about mr. partridge that starts on the bottom of page 47 of this pdf.

for earnings trades i have been positioning over the past few weeks. the impact of time premium should be minimal from here out as event risk starts to dominate. for me time decay is not so much of a concern as most of my exposure is in deeper in the money and longer dated options. i'll minimize time decay by buying enough time to get thru earnings, and then will roll forward at a hopefully lower price if the price moves in my favor, buying me more time to ride the lightning.

Fair point. Lets put it this way... If we run into the earnings would you close out the calls because less likely to move afterwards?

The idea being to buy early this week?
Are you more concerned about pre-earnings run rather than waiting and paying less for time premium?
 
Last edited:
Interesting. Of course Tesla does not really need to be able to sell to everybody to attain an impressive share of the car market.

I do not think they are incorrect. Obviously I think there are mitigants, but each of these points does have a basis in reality.
Only IMO if Curt's statement is incorrect.
 
the problem i have is although i expect a strong beat, someone who was closely following tesla and on the solarcity 10k early would have started to figure out a beat was coming as early as mid march. that beat would have been virtually guaranteed on the higher delivery number. we've moved 70 points since march, 25 points since the delivery number was announced. some portion of a beat has been priced. this mutes my expectation for the post-earnings move a bit (which may be wrong!).

the 315s when i priced them were around $10 for 5/19. that requires a move to 345 for a 3x gain. although that sounds like a lot, it's actually a large move for a relatively modest 300% gain. the pricing just doesn't seem so attractive.

on the other hand, i feel that the likelihood of the stock revisiting 280-290 is low, because a gaap eps beat followed by a chance for another gaap profit brings the index frontrunning into play. for most prices in the 310-330 area the in the money's give a better way to participate.

i have also been contemplating selling some puts, althuogh that's not really my style. i prefer trades where downside is limited and upside is large.

Good point that educated/smart longs might have already priced in a beat. Perhaps that means the movement will be dictated by how much the shorts freak out. I have no idea how to parse out those effects though.
 
the problem i have is although i expect a strong beat, someone who was closely following tesla and on the solarcity 10k early would have started to figure out a beat was coming as early as mid march. that beat would have been virtually guaranteed on the higher delivery number. we've moved 70 points since march, 25 points since the delivery number was announced. some portion of a beat has been priced. this mutes my expectation for the post-earnings move a bit (which may be wrong!).

the 315s when i priced them were around $10 for 5/19. that requires a move to 345 for a 3x gain. although that sounds like a lot, it's actually a large move for a relatively modest 300% gain. the pricing just doesn't seem so attractive.

on the other hand, i feel that the likelihood of the stock revisiting 280-290 is low, because a gaap eps beat followed by a chance for another gaap profit brings the index frontrunning into play. for most prices in the 310-330 area the in the money's give a better way to participate.

i have also been contemplating selling some puts, althuogh that's not really my style. i prefer trades where downside is limited and upside is large.

Aren't the earnings the "last straw" the Shorts are holding on to? For this reason alone would they not be a good upside if we have good earnings? thoughts?
 
  • Like
Reactions: erthquake
the shorts will always find another straw. my enthusiasm is moderated only because we've moved 70 points since someone could have figured this earnings beat out. you should imagine that there are also likely longs who have outsized their positions from mid march knowing a gaap eps profit was likely coming, and those outsized positions may come back for sale when the report is out, muting the reaction a bit. every one makes their own decisions, mine was to not have excessive risk on a massive upside reaction (> +15%).

had i been on the job earlier i'd have joined those who started positioning mid march. it would have been a helluva trade. it's still a helluva trade!

i should emphasize that i have little edge in predicting the market's reaction. the signposts of high open call interest and extremely high borrow rates don't exist for me as they did in 2013. i am purely guessing based on when i felt key facts could be understood and how far the stock has come since then.

Aren't the earnings the "last straw" the Shorts are holding on to? For this reason alone would they not be a good upside if we have good earnings? thoughts?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.