2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[hockeythug]

Prolly safe to say those might be the last of the pictures and the last days of his employment.

 

[neroden]

And no I don't believe you are Montana fro SA; he's much too proud of his identity to hide behind a pseudonym.

Um, you do realize his identity on SA *is* a pseudonym. I believe Anton Wahlmann would use his real name. But someone who uses one pseud is likely to use several. I do suspect mmd != Montana Skeptic... simply because I think if he were, he would have been less polite when I stated outright that Montana Skeptic was exposing Seeking Alpha to securities fraud lawsuits by posting verifiably false claims of fact with the presumed goal of manipulating the stock price.

 

[RobStark]

Aluminum bodies. It's a lot harder to burn steel than to burn aluminum, basically.


It's the aluminum body. Betcha an aluminum F150 would do the same thing.

 

[FredTMC]

You may be right, but, to me that yellow shield looks like a portable vinyl weld shield that is mounted on a light steel tubing frame. These are used often in construction for protecting other construction workers. I suspect that is there due to some welding they were doing in setting up the robots, not the final function of the robots.

Excellent point.

I still think it's a weld line. It not for "Body-in-white", then for subassemblies.

Another reason it wouldn't be "final vehicle assembly" is you can't have humans standing in the same space as robots. Hazardous.

 

[neroden]

Trump inviting entire Senate to the white house for a briefing on North Korea, with the Sec of State, Sec of Defence, Director of National Intelligence, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Last time this happened was before the invasion of Iraq.

Would like to hear form @IntlProfessor what he reads into this. As ominous as it looks at first sight?

Entire U.S. Senate to go to White House for North Korea briefing

Well, maybe. I will point out once again that North Korea is *completely* isolated geopolitically; it's managed to alienate China now, and of course also Russia. Apparently China is cooperating with the US in regards to North Korea at this point. So I think North Korea has zero chance of blowing up into WWIII (I am much more concerned about Ukraine, Syria, Iran, etc.)

 

[neroden]

When the French were besieged in 1954 at Dien Bien Phu Admiral Radford, then Jt. Chiefs Chairman, and Allen Dulles, head of the CIA, approached Eisenhower proposing the use of nuclear weapons. Eisenhower said to consult with Congressional leaders Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn about it. In turn, they counseled, "consult with our allies." When Radford/Dulles flew to London Clement Attlee knew all about it and refused cooperation.

This is not a piece of history I knew. It reinforces my *immense* respect for Attlee.

I have no idea how the Chief and Director would use nuclear weapons in guerrilla war, which we taught the Vietnamese how to do against the Japanese during WWII. I do know that Eisenhower was a very crafty politician, not selected for his strategic vision by Roosevelt, but for his political skill. Of course he knew Attlee personally.

 

[neroden]

i have also been contemplating selling some puts, althuogh that's not really my style. i prefer trades where downside is limited and upside is large.

As you know I've sold a lot of TSLA puts and done quite nicely (made money while retaining liquidity). It's not such a great time for it right now. IV is still relatively low, actually...

 

[zdriver]

Heads up for those of you in the upper midwest (or willing to travel) - seating can now be reserved for JB Straubel's keynote at "The Energy Fair" in Custer, WI on Saturday, June 17th. (roughly smack dab in the center of the state)

Reserved seating for JB Straubel - The Energy Fair | Midwest Renewable Energy Association

 

[geneclean55]

As you know I've sold a lot of TSLA puts and done quite nicely (made money while retaining liquidity). It's not such a great time for it right now. IV is still relatively low, actually...

I noticed it was relatively low as well. I wonder if that means IV crush will be less pronounced after earnings.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm very good confused by these photos of 476 robots getting installed for M3 production line.

We already have a number of Release Candidate Model 3s driving around.
These cars were "roduced/assembled on "Production Hardware" according to Tesla. This is why tesla calls them RC cars and not Beta cars.

Ok, well WHAT Production Hardware?!

These 476 robots aren't even installed yet at the factory. Happening over next 8 weeks.

So, here's some questions:

1). Stamping is obviously working, but we dont know if tesla is using Production Dies yet, or Temporary dies. Probably temporary Dies is my guess

2). Is there a Body-in-white weld line already running? Will tesla have more than one BIW line for Model 3?

3). Maybe subassembly lines are getting robots installed. Similar to Fred Lamberts video of a rear quarter panel getting robotically assembled for MX

2). Guessing the final assembly line isn't up yet. I assume RC cars were assembled by hand after paint shop.

Thoughts?

 

[neroden]

EM conversion of SolarCity Notes to TSLA shares
Tesla - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

'The number denoted represents $10,000,000 of the Zero Coupon Senior Notes due 2020 of SolarCity Corporation (the "Notes"), of which the reporting person acquired $10,000,000 in principal amount on December 7, 2015. In accordance with the terms of such Notes, the reporting person converted $10,000,000 of the Notes into 33,333 shares of Tesla common stock at a conversion price of $300.00 per share.'

OK, this doesn't surprise me at *all*.

I guess Lyndon Rive ($3 million) and Silver Lake Kraftwerk ($100 million) would not have to report if they converted theirs; we would not find out until the next institutional ownership report, or the next quarterly report.

SolarCity and Silver Lake Kraftwerk Announce $100 Million Investment

 

[roblab]

Well, as a science teacher, I couldn't get it to burn in the lab. My fire wasn't hot enough. My brother "welds" aluminum, that is melts it. The picture looks like the rubber is burning, while the Al melts to a puddle. All that black smoke and black residue is not the (di)aluminum trioxide, it's carbon. There's plenty of plastic to melt all the aluminum you picture here.

By the way, the burner heads on my house stove are aluminum. Yep. Right next to the fire.

 

[geneclean55]

I'm very good confused by these photos of 476 robots getting installed for M3 production line.

We already have a number of Release Candidate Model 3s driving around.
These cars were "roduced/assembled on "Production Hardware" according to Tesla. This is why tesla calls them RC cars and not Beta cars.

Ok, well WHAT Production Hardware?!

These 476 robots aren't even installed yet at the factory. Happening over next 8 weeks.

So, here's some questions:

1). Stamping is obviously working, but we dont know if tesla is using Production Dies yet, or Temporary dies. Probably temporary Dies is my guess

2). Is there a Body-in-white weld line already running? Will tesla have more than one BIW line for Model 3?

3). Maybe subassembly lines are getting robots installed. Similar to Fred Lamberts video of a rear quarter panel getting robotically assembled for MX

2). Guessing the final assembly line isn't up yet. I assume RC cars were assembled by hand after paint shop.

Thoughts?

Production hardware. Could be the final version of hardware present in the production models?

Also, in one of the photos, it looks like some robots are already in place on the line. Also, People who toured the factory a few weeks back mentioned on here that they saw a bunch of Kuka robots ready for the M3 line. So while the guy mentioned he was helping in setting up and commissioning 467 robots, I doubt he is the only guy from Kuka who has been working on it. So maybe 467 is simply him referring to the total number for the line of which he is responsible for some portion.

 

[neroden]

These cars were "roduced/assembled on "Production Hardware" according to Tesla. This is why tesla calls them RC cars and not Beta cars.

Ok, well WHAT Production Hardware?!

These 476 robots aren't even installed yet at the factory. Happening over next 8 weeks.

So, here's some questions:

1). Stamping is obviously working, but we dont know if tesla is using Production Dies yet, or Temporary dies. Probably temporary Dies is my guess

2). Is there a Body-in-white weld line already running? Will tesla have more than one BIW line for Model 3?

3). Maybe subassembly lines are getting robots installed. Similar to Fred Lamberts video of a rear quarter panel getting robotically assembled for MX

2). Guessing the final assembly line isn't up yet. I assume RC cars were assembled by hand after paint shop.

Thoughts?

My uninformed guess is that it's the automated final assembly line.

 

[erthquake]

There's plenty of plastic to melt all the aluminum you picture here.

Plastic and, you know, gasoline.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Ain't Neuralink great?


On edit: Rats - vgrinshpun beat me to it

He has the neuralink plug-in on his browser

 

[skitown]

I'd be curious to read about about what folks think about the risks associated Tesla's debt load; if any. Haven't seen too much in this thread over the past weeks and months relative to other risks. I know a former WS trader who touches on this from time to time as part of his bear thesis (if he has one) and it's not an area that I can confidently speak to. One specific angle could obviously be: what would happen in the event of an economic downturn, etc.? Thanks.

 

[Todd Burch]

Prolly safe to say those might be the last of the pictures and the last days of his employment.

I hope they don't fire him until AFTER he gets all those robots installed .

 

[hockeythug]

I hope they don't fire him until AFTER he gets all those robots installed .

He has 7.5 weeks left to avoid detection. Ha.

 

[geneclean55]

I hope they don't fire him until AFTER he gets all those robots installed .

Right! One thing he has going for him is that its a critical time for Tesla right now, to get those bad boys installed pronto.