2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ValueAnalyst]

Straubel just gifted 22,000 shares to charity. I think that's a really positive sign that the SP is going to appreciate greatly in the near future.

Gifting of shares usually means they have appreciated greatly in the past.

The donor avoids paying taxes on the appreciation, and I believe gets to deduct the fair value at the time of the gifting, and the non-profit does not pay any taxes. So if the donor believed the stocks were to greatly appreciate soon, they might delay the gifting until after the significant appreciation.

I'm not sure if JB is hurting for a few more millions, so I doubt this event has any meaning to the stock.

 

[jhm]

Why?

Model S is frameless. Zero issues

Well, ONE issue. My father-in-law always touches the top corner of the glass window when he shuts the door. I can't get him to remember not to do that. Ugh

We've had issues with both of our Model Ss. Bad alignment and catching. Multiple service visits with poor resolution.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just fyi, it's not a "reveal" event. It's just a factory tour (albeit a "VIP" one that's slightly longer) for referral program winners. And they'll be showing a Model 3... but we don't know if it'll be a prototype or release candidate. I don't expect anything new or exciting from the event. They already have shown the Model 3 in previous events - M3 reveal, GF tour, Employee party, and Solar roof event.

My understanding is that Tesla will have another event in July to showcase the production version, which "in some ways will be a lot better."

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk says final reveal could come after production in July, when they open online configurator

 

[mrdoubleb]

View attachment 227258

Can read the details here: FAQ

Now I am just waiting on @neroden to bore down upon it. I'll prepare the popcorn

Ok, we bore with you for a while, but enough of these silly word games!

 

[Ovulation]

Interesting work by the OpenAi people regarding robots, since Tesla has a lot of robots it might be relevant in the long run

Elon Musk-backed OpenAI is teaching robots how to learn just like humans do

Robots that Learn from Jonas Schneider on Vimeo

Robots that Learn

 

[neroden]

No - prices and rig counts actually have been rising since early 2016, and horizontal rig count (which is what matters) has almost fully recovered.

It's unfavorable geology leading to high depletion rates, which then requires a lot of capital to keep production rate up, as well as other limitations.

Very similar, but slightly different cases, in oil and natural gas markets.

Ah, come over to the "hedging Tesla shorting oil" thread. We've been debating the fate of the oil markets. You're clearly in the "one last price spike" camp.

I've been saying for a while that the only two possibilities for the oil price are "all downward from here" and "one last big price spike, then all downward" -- there just isn't enough time for two oil price cycles before electric cars & trucks take over. Do you agree?

 

[neroden]

View attachment 227258

Can read the details here: FAQ

Now I am just waiting on @neroden to bore down upon it. I'll prepare the popcorn

Yeah, that's been predebunked. First of all, subway tunnels are about the same diameter as the tunnels he proposes. Second, there'll be traffic congestion at the entrances and exits. Third, it takes 20 car tunnels to have the people-moving capacity of 1 subway tunnel. I wish him best of luck with the boring technology, but the idea of layers of car tunnels is actively stupid.

 

[neroden]

I am going. A bunch of us are. We will try to update. Hopefully the "Model 3 viewing" is substantial, but it really might be "Look but don't touch the 2 prototypes everyone knows about". HOPEFULLY it is one of the test fleet and we can see the interior. But if that is the case, they surely would have already shown or leaked it. Wierd if it is the June 2 group tweeting photos and that is how the world learns, but if so we will oblige.

Yeah, I'm lucky enough to be going as well. I think it's up to others to say whether they're going or not, but I'd love to meet as many of you as possible (DaveT? Fred Lambert?) while in San Francisco (I'll be there for several days since I'm going to the annual meeting too).

 

[racer26]

Yeah, that's been predebunked. First of all, subway tunnels are about the same diameter as the tunnels he proposes. Second, there'll be traffic congestion at the entrances and exits. Third, it takes 20 car tunnels to have the people-moving capacity of 1 subway tunnel. I wish him best of luck with the boring technology, but the idea of layers of car tunnels is actively stupid.

Meh. Its early stages yet. I suspect he'll figure out optimizations along the way - he just can't do anything under the radar anymore, so we get to see earlier and earlier stages of the ideas that lead to great companies.

If he can build a TBM that cuts tunnels for ~10% of the price of current technology, through whatever innovations he comes up with (and I'm not speaking to whether his current ideas for how to cut the costs are right), there will be plenty of applications and the Boring Company will be successful.

 

[neroden]

Regarding Tesla battery recycling, this is from 2011, so it is admittedly dated:
Tesla's Closed Loop Battery Recycling Program

https://www.tesla.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-recycling-program
Hmmm. Thanks for linking to this again.

Umicore seems to be a major recycler -- no mines! -- and apparently a major cobalt supplier to battery manufacturers. So the recycling's happening! (Kimbursky seems much smaller.) I may actually have to check it out from an investing point of view: they seem like the first major metals refiner to focus on recycling and extracting metals from slag.

 

[scaesare]

Anything new that can be gleaned from this image?

The first thing I looked at was the trunk opening, as that was one of the major architectural items that they said they'd re-design in light of the concerns about opening size.

It turns out the article referred to as well... and although I haven't taken the time to verify, it says the opening has been enlarged... and based on my recollection that looks likely...

 

[dennis]

Uh oh, whompy wheel! Where's Keef?

 

[mongo]

Anything new that can be gleaned from this image?

Depending how centralized it is/ width of front drive unit, the front frame rail may need to be redesigned to support AWD (clearance for half shaft).

 

[Ovulation]

Yeah, that's been predebunked. First of all, subway tunnels are about the same diameter as the tunnels he proposes. Second, there'll be traffic congestion at the entrances and exits. Third, it takes 20 car tunnels to have the people-moving capacity of 1 subway tunnel. I wish him best of luck with the boring technology, but the idea of layers of car tunnels is actively stupid.

You can build cheaper or more subway-tunnels with better boring machines, of course you can't get a ton of free advertising with a youtube-video of some subways, just saying.

 

[SunCatcher]

Time for our morning M3 eye candy. What a beautiful car.

Tesla Model 3: new high-res shots of the latest silver release candidate spotted

 

[JRP3]

Depending how centralized it is/ width of front drive unit, the front frame rail may need to be redesigned to support AWD (clearance for half shaft).

You really think they didn't take that into account with the initial design?

 

[scaesare]

Time for our morning M3 eye candy. What a beautiful car.

Tesla Model 3: new high-res shots of the latest silver release candidate spotted

Boy that lane-keeping AP algorithm needs some work!

 

[brian45011]

Hmmm. Thanks for linking to this again.

Umicore seems to be a major recycler -- no mines! -- and apparently a major cobalt supplier to battery manufacturers. So the recycling's happening! (Kimbursky seems much smaller.) I may actually have to check it out from an investing point of view: they seem like the first major metals refiner to focus on recycling and extracting metals from slag.

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

ADR = UMICY

 

[luvb2b]

sorry if this has been discussed already.
does anyone understand why energy storage revenue (excluding solarcity) dropped so sharply quarter over quarter?
my model has 47.2m energy storage revenue in q4 2016 and on 5.2m in q1 2017. how could that drop 90%? it's as if they had no completed installations/revenue recognition in the first quarter of 17? from the 10q below.

Energy generation and storage revenue includes sales of solar energy systems and energy storage products, leasing revenue from solar energy systems under operating leases and power purchase agreements and sales of solar energy system incentives. Energy generation and storage revenue increased by $191.2 million, or 841%, in the three months ended March 31, 2017 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2016. This was primarily due to the inclusion of revenue from SolarCity, which we acquired on November 21, 2016, of $208.7 million, partially offset by a decrease in energy storage revenue of $17.4 million.​

 

[mongo]

You really think they didn't take that into account with the initial design?

I would expect that that they did, that's why I hedged regarding drive unit width and frame rail location. From that image, it does not look like there is straight shot for an axle to the wheel. The S did change the frunk to accommodate AWD, so it would not be unprecedented.