2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Waiting4M3]

But there is no reason that they have to use the same modules for the 60kWh and 75kWh packs. (Just like Tesla used to use different module formats for the Model S 60 and the Model S 85.)

So the Model 3 74(75) could use 4 18.5kWh modules.

Fewer modules=fewer interconnects=less cost

If there are modules of different capacity, would they share the same physical dimension? If they do then the module used for 60kwh would have empty space and you're wasting money on module enclosure material. If the modules for the 60kwh are smaller, then installation into the car would require different process and hardware, which would add cost/complexity. I don't know how much more wiring costs for 5 modules vs 4, but I'm a little dubious that the cost saving in wiring would be worth it to have different modules.

 

[MP3Mike]

If there are modules of different capacity, would they share the same physical dimension? If they do then the module used for 60kwh would have empty space and you're wasting money on module enclosure material. If the modules for the 60kwh are smaller, then installation into the car would require different process and hardware, which would add cost/complexity. I don't know how much more wiring costs for 5 modules vs 4, but I'm a little dubious that the cost saving in wiring would be worth it to have different modules.

The original Model S packs the 60kWh packs were made with modules of the same physical size as those in the 85kWh packs, but they left out some cells in each module. They also had 14/16 modules in a pack, so by cutting that down to 4 in the Model 3 they have reduced interconnects by up to 75%.

 

[RobStark]

Cordless tools probably still use 18650s, pretty large market there.

Before Workhorse and electric skateboards there were cordless tools. And Panasonic mothballed their 18650 factories because cordless tool manufactures did not care about marginally better performance or marginally better quality but rock bottom price.

 

[RobStark]

The East Coast.

I know a lot of you are enjoying the perfect weather on the Best Coast, but on this side of the Mississippi, Elon Musk and Tesla are still not very well known by the general public, yet.

Witness protection?

Can't get more specific than somewhere between the Mississippi River and the Atlantic Ocean?

 

[scaesare]

But there is no reason that they have to use the same modules for the 60kWh and 75kWh packs. (Just like Tesla used to use different module formats for the Model S 60 and the Model S 85.)

So the Model 3 74(75) could use 4 18.5kWh modules.

Fewer modules=fewer interconnects=less cost

True.

At the same time, fewer variations and configurations also equals lower cost. So if you can come up with a method for accomplishing the various configurations you need, and you can do so with fewer unique part #'s, the generally more economical the solution is...

 

[MartinAustin]

I have been mulling this over. First, a fact: There will be a driver behind the wheel the whole way. Legally, and morally that has to be the case. So, I figure the FSD coast to coast drive will happen with asterisks. Ignoring stops so the drivers can sleep and pee, there will be X number of interventions which they will explain later as being over-caution. Like the point will be to show how few interventions was required.

It hasn't become evident how the car will stay charged during the journey. Will there be a reveal of a charging snake supercharger? Will several sites along the demo route be outfitted with the new Superchargers? Or... will occupants de-board to work the Supercharger plug?

I agree that a driver will be in the car. There may be cameras in the car recording the whole affair, to be edited into some sort of sped-up production (hopefully without Benny Hill music).

There will probably be camera cars travelling along with the FSD car in order to assist with the video production - and transport the engineers who will be on hand to attempt to solve issues that occur.

 

[adiggs]

JUST IN!!

From the shuttle ride back home:

"Isn't Tesla a division of Ferrari or Porsche or something?!"

They (Ferrari / Porsche) wish!@

 

[Waiting4M3]

The original Model S packs the 60kWh packs were made with modules of the same physical size as those in the 85kWh packs, but they left out some cells in each module. They also had 14/16 modules in a pack, so by cutting that down to 4 in the Model 3 they have reduced interconnects by up to 75%.

It would be interesting to see how Tesla's final decision will be, I can see them going a few different ways

Since M3 production will be automated and high volume, so hopefully the complexity is a small cost vs material, so I would probably go with options A or C.

 

[Waiting4M3]

True.

At the same time, fewer variations and configurations also equals lower cost. So if you can come up with a method for accomplishing the various configurations you need, and you can do wo with fewer unique part #'s, the generally more economical the solution is...

That depends on the cost to set up and execute different process vs the material. If everything is automated, then the setup is just a one-time programming cost, then it can be minimized if you run rate if very high and the material cost dominates.

 

[zdriver]

(I'm still a bit annoyed that *no one* has opened up a powerwall yet. It's not even expensive to do. I'd do it myself if they were available in Norway.)

I was (still am?) 100% ready to do so, but after talking with the rep that called me, they wouldn't sell me just the powerwall itself, without installation.

I have minimal motivation to schedule an installation until I finish the PV build and new electrical service in my shop, but even then I wouldn't want to try opening it up unless I had 2 or 3...

 

[Dagger]

Not sure if this has been posted before, but haven't found anything on it on TMC.
From November 2016:
Tesla signs permanent magnet supply deal | Industrial Minerals

Chinese listed magnetic material company Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan Hi-Tech Company (ZKSH) has announced the signing of an agreement to supply Tesla Motors with neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets for the next three years

Only shows a preview of the article.

 

[zdriver]

Not sure if this has been posted before, but haven't found anything on it on TMC.
From November 2016:
Tesla signs permanent magnet supply deal | Industrial Minerals


Only shows a preview of the article.

Hah, I was just going to post this. You browsing through recent InsideEV posts tonight as well?

 

[zdriver]

Tesla Model 3 spotted with ‘Signature Red’ color – Elon Musk’s ‘something special’?


Video - Instagram post by Roger Li • May 26, 2017 at 4:51pm UTC

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

It would be interesting to see how Tesla's final decision will be, I can see them going a few different ways

View attachment 228573

Since M3 production will be automated and high volume, so hopefully the complexity is a small cost vs material, so I would probably go with options A or C.

Great chart! But it got me thinking. No matter what the choice, there's always a trade-off somewhere. So I thought of an option E: 60kwh will simply be a software limited 75kwh when gigafactory output is sufficient to release the "base" model?

I vaguely recall seeing that the 75kwh pack would be the initial version being released (might've been in a dream)? Couple that with RWD as the mid-trim model 3, and Tesla can sell them for $42K with reasonable margins, good range, minimal customization, and still be able to deliver that $35k base model later when factory, motor, and battery pack automation makes it profitable enough to simply software limit the battery pack ala S60-to-S75 upgrade. This jigsaw piece would fit all the clues and make practical sense. What do you think?

Hope I didn't let any cats out of the bag like this? Elon if you're reading, you can blame Waiting4M3's chart! It was just too thorough!

 

[Ameliorate]

Tesla Model 3 spotted with ‘Signature Red’ color – Elon Musk’s ‘something special’?


Video - Instagram post by Roger Li • May 26, 2017 at 4:51pm UTC

 

[AudubonB]

Hmmm -
373,000 or 400,000 or X00,000 Sig Red Model 3s would not, to me, be very "Signature-y". As much as that red is a very satisfying color, were that to be the case I, for one, would choose something different.

 

[zdriver]

Hmmm -
373,000 or 400,000 or X00,000 Sig Red Model 3s would not, to me, be very "Signature-y". As much as that red is a very satisfying color, were that to be the case I, for one, would choose something different.

I'd imagine it would only be offered to those who stood in line, or at most, those who reserved before the unveil. So ~70-100k? I'd be rather surprised if more than 25% of those people took the option, especially if it was extra $$.

 

[RobStark]

Hmmm -
373,000 or 400,000 or X00,000 Sig Red Model 3s would not, to me, be very "Signature-y".

If Model 3 sells in the millions we TMCers expect over the next ~8 years of Model 3 version 1 the ~100k or so people that chose Signature Red may feel it is "Signature-y."

 

[schonelucht]

Looks like Teslanomics pulled the $216M investment video on the automated module assembly line. Does that mean information was incorrect or too correct?

 

[Willuknight]

I was just wondering if anyone can reccomend a good android app for tracking my stock? I want something easy to use as I'm a noob.

Needs to be able to track multiple buys (ie bought 7 shares at $250 and 20 @ $300.

Would be nice to see a profit total plus maybe individual gains