2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[SebastianR]

With the 2016 numbers in - do we have a table that shows market share / deliveries in the US luxury market similar to the one we had last year? It would be interesting if the market segment grew with Tesla or if Tesla is hurting the Germans even more...

 

[WarpedOne]

Look here: U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings - 2016 Year End

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla has four ways to prevent Osborning of the MS-MX.
1. Don't reveal any features on the M3 until after introduction on the MS-MX. They already did exactly that with the AP 2 hardware. I don't know why they would change that strategy or why anyone here is still saying that they will reveal all of the M3 features at the part three reveal.

2. Reduce the prices without reducing margins. An obvious example is the prices of the AP software suite (amortized over a much larger number of cars).

3. Reduce costs by integrating alien dreadnaught production techniques into the production.

4. Improvements to the MS-MX. The most likely way is a substantial interior upgrade. I don't believe that Tesla's hire of the man from Volvo who is an interior specialist is a coincidence.

I believe it's obvious that they will pursue all of those options.

 

[EcoBruin]

off topic:

I still amazes me that a tiny start-up (no model 3 and so on) was able to lure Panasonic in a big investment like the Gigafactory and by doing so giving Tesla an head start for mass production of electric cars. IMO it's one of Teslas biggest accomplishments

It is an amazing feat. I've only worked at startups during my short 10 year career but I've noticed that many large Japanese companies are more likely to work with startups and some even have dedicated divisions which can make small design changes to accommodate our R&D. In the off chance that one of the startups strikes gold, they'd be taken along for the ride.

 

[RobStark]

 

[jgillispie]

I guess Tesla gets regulated to "Other" if they even count it at all.

 

[geneclean55]

Closed 9.99 higher, very nivce volume. What a day
Would be interesting to know how much was due to shorts covering.

Nice rally since first week of december. For us in Europe the US$ strenght even added a lot on top of the SP rise.

A nice round 10.00 I believe

 

[JBRR]

 

[everman]

I suspect another reveal event around March-May 2016 of the pencils down Model 3 interior & exterior. The one on the gf floor now is possibly the one that's been there for a while.

My prediction is April 20th, as Elon has a great sense of humor. Also a day before options expiry.

 

[JBRR]

 

[madodel]

According to Paulo Model S sales only grew 3.6% in 2016. Apparently Tesla has done nothing good at all in 2016 and is about to fall bigly. A lot of the shorts are getting ready for the slaughter. The question is do they understand they are the ones ending up on the butcher block?

 

[Gerardf]

With regards to the high short interest, there was an interesting comment S.A. recently on one of the more balanced articles. Could explain part of the high short interest. Maybe some here have an opinion on what part of the high short interest could be due to this ? Significant or insignificant ? Could it possibly explain why we did not see the high short recall we discussed last year ?


" Now I would like your opinion as well as that of other commenters on the effect of Tesla’s Convertible Bonds on the short trade. These instruments are favored as a hedge for major short traders. I have read their Prospectus for all of the Convertible Bond issuances. Each of them contains this statement:
[ We expect that many investors in, and potential purchasers of, the notes will employ, or seek to employ, a convertible arbitrage strategy with respect to the notes. Investors that employ a convertible arbitrage strategy with respect to convertible debt instruments typically implement that strategy by selling short the common stock underlying the convertible notes and dynamically adjusting their short position while they hold the notes. Investors may also implement this strategy by entering into swaps on our common stock in lieu of or in addition to short selling the common stock.]

The Convertible Bonds are attractive to sophisticated short traders. Therefore Tesla were able to sell a larger tranche of Convertible Bonds than they would have to long investors only. This raised a great deal of financing for Tesla at crucial times in their history.

< snip >

On my other related topic I have also read this about the Convertible Bond Underwriters in the Prospectus:
[In connection with the offering, the underwriters may purchase and sell notes and common stock in the open market. These transactions may include stabilizing transactions, short sales and purchases to cover positions created by short sales. Stabilizing transactions consist of certain bids or purchases made for the purpose of preventing or retarding a decline in the market price of the notes while the offering is in progress. Short sales involve the sale by the underwriters of a greater number of notes than they are required to purchase in the offering. If the underwriters create a short position in the notes in connection with the offering, the underwriters may cover that short position by purchasing notes in the open market or by exercising all or a part of the option to purchase additional notes described above."

 

[RubberToe]

With the 2016 numbers in - do we have a table that shows market share / deliveries in the US luxury market similar to the one we had last year? It would be interesting if the market segment grew with Tesla or if Tesla is hurting the Germans even more...

I will be posting that later today in the thread where I track that. Actually, won't be until tomorrow night, since Ford doesn't report December sales until tomorrow...

Model S sales versus other large luxury vehicles

Here is the spreadsheet through November:

[URL=http://s882.photobucket.com/user/RubberToe420/media/ModelS_1116_zps8vzsvzpb.jpg.html][/URL]

 

[Gerardf]

According to Paulo Model S sales only grew 3.6% in 2016. Apparently Tesla has done nothing good at all in 2016 and is about to fall bigly. A lot of the shorts are getting ready for the slaughter. The question is do they understand they are the ones ending up on the butcher block?

Paulo keeps hammering on how Model-S Q4 sales went down Y-o-Y, conviently forgetting total production including Model-X increased very significantly. What part of production constained does he not understand ?
Actually, I am pretty sure he IS fully aware, but he has FUD that needs to be spread at all costs.

 

[BornToFly]

Paulo keep hammering on how Model-S Q4 sales went down Y-o-Y, conviently forgetting total production including Model-X increased very significantly. What part of production constained does he not understand ?
Actually, I am pretty sure he IS fully aware, but he has FUD that needs to be spread at all costs.

Santos is an idiot. He doesn't understand that for Tesla, selling a S or a X is similar, like selling a red car or a blue car. Q4 2015 it was all Model S (red cars). Now that some customers were able to order an X (blue cars) this year, Tesla sold less red cars even though total sales are up over 50% from 2015. What is amazing to me, is that he is willing to show the world over and over again that he has the intellect of a 5th grader. Who is dumb enough to take any financial advice from that guy?

 

[3Victoria]

I guess Tesla gets regulated to "Other" if they even count it at all.

They say that Tesla only reports world stats. I suggested that they just ask Tesla for US stats.

 

[RobStark]

I guess Tesla gets regulated to "Other" if they even count it at all.

.075% usually does get relegated to "other."

Once Tesla hits 1.0% it can get its own piece of the pie.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla is probably starting to think equity raise about now. 1.5B for 4% dilution at 230 sounds good to me. Stock would go up and Mark Spiegel would absolutely lose it on twitter. What a time to be alive.

 

[150 kWh]

579 Bolt EVs were delivered in December / 2016.

http://www.gm.com/content/dam/gm/mol/docs/Deliveries-December-2016.pdf

 

[Krugerrand]

This board continues to be an echo chamber only for those who want to see the positive aspect in everything this company does as if they can do no wrong and that all of their misses are the fault of outside forces. I got 7 dislikes (the most for any post that I have ever made) because I said that they pretty much pulled the plug on all the demand levers this last quarter save a price reduction. That warrants 7 dislikes?

This board is not an echo chamber for those who want to see the positive aspect in everything this company does, blah, blah, blah. If you need me to, I can link you to SEVERAL threads on this board ripping Tesla a new orifice for one thing or another. But still you might need a reminder that this is a Tesla 'Enthusiasts' Forum.

Secondarily, it is no longer 'dislikes' but rather DISAGREES.

I follow up with a post saying that as CEO EM better darn well care about capital appreciation for the other owners of the company, we the shareholders. Once you go public, it is no longer your personal piggy bank for other pet projects and clearly, he does care about the share price both short and long term, as he should. To speak as if EM can do no wrong, and to not call out and instead make excuses only perpetuates this. Tesla is no longer a startup, it is approaching a $40billion market cap. If they make promises or projections and they fail to deliver they should be held accountable, especially on an investors board. I just do not understand the hate/animosity that is spewed toward people with a contrary view that it is not all roses right now, but there is a ton of hope in the Model 3 if they execute properly. Is there not room for a moderate view?

And that I wholeheartedly disagree with. EM doesn't have to be the CEO YOU think he should be for YOU or anyone else. He's always been the way he is now and will continue to be the same way. That's who I invested in, not some prototypical this-is-how-it's-always-been-done-therefore-it's-how-I'll-do-it CEO.

If how he decides to run his publicly traded company doesn't fit into your investment theory, then don't invest in TSLA.

clearly the market was not too spooked by this miss, but it was a miss by all definitions and understanding of the word.

The market was not spooked because the miss was mouse nuts.