2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[T3slaTulips]

View attachment 231864

Dear people who get to ask questions on the Q2 conference call, Please ask why X and S aren't changing cell form factor.

 

[techmaven]

Dear people who get to ask questions on the Q2 conference call, Please ask why X and S aren't changing cell form factor.

I'd rather the company not tell us.

 

[larmor]

Dear people who get to ask questions on the Q2 conference call, Please ask why X and S aren't changing cell form factor.

What about replacing the battery pack for S and X at some point, and costs and revenue implications?

 

[22522]

There is no fact or rumor motivating this. Just false fact curiosity.

If we suppose that NCA likes to get charged daily to 80% and is not super suitable to apartments with no night charging.

And NMC is happy at any partial charge state (and can cycle daily if needed).

Could an NMC battery in a model 3 provide product line differentiation?

1. Lower cost
2. Better for infrequent charging at apartments
3. Acceleration rates that are more insurance friendly.

If acceleration is cell heating limited, the 2170 may be a slower cell. Just based on surface area to volume - the 2170 is a slower format battery.

 

[T3slaTulips]

I'd rather the company not tell us.

You're not worried then that we'll only hear the "reasons" from the FUD spinners?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

?? dont quite understand then why go 2170 if x and s aren't? because the 2170 is cheaper to make?

The S and X will stay with the 18650 cells for now, I believe for the following reasons:

(1) 18650 production is stable. There is no need to risk production flow of the S and X by going to a new cell format that requires retooling of cell manufacturing lines.

(2) The different geometry of the 2170 would require redesign of the S/X packs. Again, needless risk to switch.

(3) All the 2170 cells are needed to get Model 3 up to the hundreds of thousands of units/year.

Ultimately this is a non-issue IMO. Apple customers in general don't ask whether Apple uses higher or lower density flash chips for MacBooks, nor are Honda customers typically asking whether the CVT in their new Civic or CR-V has the same or different programming than last year's model. Range rating and power output are what the overwhelming # of customers care about.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Regarding the news that the Gigafactory has started making M3 cells...

1) Weren't we all talking about how they were doing that like 6-8 weeks ago? Wasn't the news that M3 packs were being hand assembled in anticipation of the M3 ramp, and that Tesla had allocated money to automate that instead of having people doing it? Now suddenly they are just starting to make M3 cells? Also, maybe hundreds are already running around. How can they have just started? Which is correct?
2) Is this this waaayyy too late to be starting? They have to make them, age them, put them in packs. If they want to deliver any new M3's at all in July this seems too late.

This whole comment by JB seems like it may have been misunderstood, or he was saying that they are "just now" saying they are making them?

Here is my super optimistic view on this, that I hope is what he meant.

I heard somewhere, (I can't remember where) JB talking about running the production lines at the gigafactory for short periods of time, at high rates, then stopping to test the cells, analyze the production of the line etc. My hope is that they have been doing this for a couple months in fits and starts, and have enough cells produced, tested, and aged, to build the first couple months worth of cars. Now that building those first cars is getting close, and internally they are confident that the assembly line will be ready, and the parts available, they have just turned on the Gigafactory lines full time to start making cells in volume, that will be aged and ready to go in a couple months when the automated module assembly equipment shows up, and the surprisingly smooth model 3 production ramps up. So it is not that they just started producing cells, it is that they just started producing cells using the actual full shift production procedures (The ones that will lower costs.)

 

[Reciprocity]

Regarding the news that the Gigafactory has started making M3 cells...

1) Weren't we all talking about how they were doing that like 6-8 weeks ago? Wasn't the news that M3 packs were being hand assembled in anticipation of the M3 ramp, and that Tesla had allocated money to automate that instead of having people doing it? Now suddenly they are just starting to make M3 cells? Also, maybe hundreds are already running around. How can they have just started? Which is correct?
2) Is this this waaayyy too late to be starting? They have to make them, age them, put them in packs. If they want to deliver any new M3's at all in July this seems too late.

This whole comment by JB seems like it may have been misunderstood, or he was saying that they are "just now" saying they are making them?

Feel free to listen for yourself at right about 35 minutes in, but it was not clear that JB meant they are "starting now":

Its also not clear they didnt just start it now, it was very murky as to what he meant. He says something about starting now then immediately says ramping up for model 3. It seemed to me he meant ramping starting now and not latterly starting initial production for model 3 right now.

Everyone should listen for themselves as its not like clear statement and seems more like 2 thoughts put together.

 

[zzziii]

Here is my super optimistic view on this, that I hope is what he meant.

I heard somewhere, (I can't remember where) JB talking about running the production lines at the gigafactory for short periods of time, at high rates, then stopping to test the cells, analyze the production of the line etc. My hope is that they have been doing this for a couple months in fits and starts, and have enough cells produced, tested, and aged, to build the first couple months worth of cars. Now that building those first cars is getting close, and internally they are confident that the assembly line will be ready, and the parts available, they have just turned on the Gigafactory lines full time to start making cells in volume, that will be aged and ready to go in a couple months when the automated module assembly equipment shows up, and the surprisingly smooth model 3 production ramps up. So it is not that they just started producing cells, it is that they just started producing cells using the actual full shift production procedures (The ones that will lower costs.)

I recall about hearing that recently and I found it in the Q1 2017 Earnings call transcript

I also thought that it was JB speaking, but SeekingAlpha is quoting Jonathan McNeill in their transcript:


Colin Rusch - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.

I just want to get a sense of the ramp at this point on the cathode and the anode at the Gigafactory.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.

Yeah, I think it's ramping very rapidly (47:24) but we're not really seeing anything that's standing in the way of that.

Jonathan McNeill - Tesla Motors, Inc.

Yeah, and I completely agree, and we're basically tracking slightly ahead of where we need to be on vehicles, but that's sort of as was planned.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.

Yeah.

Jonathan McNeill - Tesla Motors, Inc.

We don't want to be too far ahead or else we'd have a pretty massive inventory issue showing up. So we run it in batches, and we run at high rates and then pause and validate the throughput, but, yeah, it's where we expect it to be.

 

[Dagger]

Tried to listen to the video about the battery production for the model 3. Not a native english speaker, but did my best:

It still got a litte ways to go, but we started production for model 3 cells you know actually breaking out(?)....so that we are starting to ramp up those cell manufacturing lines and we crank this up as we begin the ramp of the model 3.

 

[zdriver]

Unofficial video (by Kman):

Sneaky. I like it. He must have been the guy standing off to the side of the seating, casually holding a monopod with a handycam-like camera. The guy that walks in front of the camera and sits down around 1m30s was the guy who just a few minutes earlier told everyone to put away any cameras.

 

[Dennisj00]

The sad state of the media is when the rare pieces of investigative journalism are done by..... Comedy shows.

This was reported on CBS This Morning several weeks ago, but in many cases you're right.

 

[MitchJi]

?? dont quite understand then why go 2170 if x and s aren't? because the 2170 is cheaper to make?

If they made 18650's using the celll manual equipment that they designed for the Gigafactory the cost would be similar.

Still doesn't make sense to give up to the added ~7% capacity.

 

[Bet TSLA]

...they can't afford customers delaying MX and MS purchase until the new cells will make their way into these cars.

I'm delaying my Model S upgrade until I see new battery technology. There's really nothing that Elon may say that will affect this.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm delaying my Model S upgrade until I see new battery technology. There's really nothing that Elon may say that will affect this.

Same here.

Even if they keep the capacity at 100kWh which would be in line with Elon's comments, new battery technology will yield even faster acceleration due to
1) the new battery pack weighing less (this will also translate to better handling and increased range), and
2) being able to discharge faster a.k.a. supply more current to the invertor.

Both advantages being helpful for the next Roadster.

 

[MitchJi]

Unofficial video (by Kman):

Vlad, thank you very very much for posting this! One "love" is not sufficient!

Anyone know if there is a recording available of the Q and A?

 

[Dwdnjck]

Same here.

Even if they keep the capacity at 100kWh which would be in line with Elon's comments, new battery technology will yield even faster acceleration due to
1) the new battery pack weighing less (this will also translate to better handling and increased range), and
2) being able to discharge faster a.k.a. supply more current to the invertor.

Both advantages being helpful for the next Roadster.

I am more concerned about "cost less"

 

[islandbayy]

Vlad, thank you very very much for posting this! One "love" is not sufficient!

Anyone know if there is a recording available of the Q and A?

I'll be needing to pull the video shortly. Enjoy it while you can.

 

[islandbayy]

Any lawyers here that can give me some advice about recordings done at a public event on private property? If so, PM me.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla driver in fatal 'Autopilot' crash got numerous warnings - U.S. government