2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

Yeah, right. The numbers say it all. Even with low gas prices and sliding sedan sales, both Accord and Camry are near the top.
Many people just like to blend in rather than be seen in a weird mobile.
Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

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Note the percent change from 2016 for those cars... Lol. Is negative 7% and 11% good or nah? What is your point? I was referring to the fugly hybrids that every auto company seems to have the same play book.

Just noticed asthetic got corrected to atheist.. Haha.

Those trucks are next on the list for Tesla. Those gear heads will appreciate the massive amounts of torque.

 

[SteveG3]

He said that he is very confident that they will be able to produce between 12 and 24 cars per minute. 12 per minute x 12 hours x 300 days equals just under 2.6 million cars per year.

Also said two weeks ago that it would probably take 4 to 5 factories for Tesla to equal Ford's per year vehicle production, which is 6.6 million (see link below for an article documenting and discussing Elon's tweets on this). That's what I derived my 1.25 to 1.5 million vehicles per average factory estimate from (though I rounded Ford to 6 million per year for that estimate). Perhaps, these two different calculations are indicative that these are all rather rough estimates of moving targets... GF1, afterall, looks like it will be 3X the size of the original plan. Perhaps the different calculations are consistent, and reflect different size factories on various continents, as large as 2.6 million, and averaging about 1.5 million.

Tesla can produce 6M+ cars with 4 to 5 factories, suggests Musk

 

[jhm]

Anyone (Jhm) have thoughts?: Tsla was pretty correlated to oil prices (oil goes up, tsla goes up), in fact they were probably the biggest driver for a while. But lately it doesn't seem to matter, tsla has slowly been going up as oil goes down. So has this relationship changed for good, or is it 100% m3/short covering related? At some point I think this relationship should end since it barely makes broad sense in the first place and that will become clearer with time, but this seems early to me.

I don't think there is much correlation left. Look at the chart below. USO (oil) is pulling away from SPY (market sp500). The oil price is falling because producers are persisting in growing supply faster than demand. I believe this has to do with competitive issues and technology within the industry and not with general economic demand. Oil is decoupling from the global economy and from the stock market. Both are growing nicely, 3.4% for global GDP and 16% for the stock market. Within that context Tesla is doing quite well.

Does this mean there is no risk left for Tesla in the face of a collapsing oil market. I think Tesla bears can still use oil market as a weapon of FUD against Tesla. I do believe we'll see oil fall well onto the $30s. Such an event will raise a lot of angst, and FUDsters will attempt to redirect it to Tesla. My basic response to anyone worried about this is to consider shorting oil or oil companies. I continue to hold some SCO (double oil bear etf) for this purpose. If oil and Tesla fall off a cliff together, I'll use gains from shorting oil to buy more Tesla. The collapse of coal has not impaired natural gas or solar. Why should the demise of oil mean anything to Tesla? A hedge can be a nice way to capitalize on irrational fear and misdirection.

 

[JRP3]

We don't. But Tesla does, as it has chosen to offer Nyland a new battery pack for free.


I named two that I know, and 2/2 is always.

Actually I interpreted it as Bjorn was asking for a pack upgrade instead of getting the powerwalls which he won, and Tesla is considering it. This is independent of the status of his current pack IMO.

 

[adiggs]

...Does this mean there is no risk left for Tesla in the face of a collapsing oil market. I think Tesla bears can still use oil market as a weapon of FUD against Tesla. I do believe we'll see oil fall well onto the $30s...

To add to @jhm's comment (I know he knows this - it's a point worth having consciously in mind for all), in the coal market we saw unit volumes of coal decline over 10 years from 1100 million (units) to 900 million (units)(both round numbers). The market was in perpetual oversupply (and still is), so price per unit of coal has also been in decline. But not in a multitude orders of magnitude kind of way. In that period, the market capitalization of coal companies fell 90%; then they fell another 90%; and then they fell ANOTHER 90% (that's what 99.9% loss of market cap looks like). How many people bought coal companies after the first 90% decline when they were on sale? And then how many people bought coal companies when they declined ANOTHER 90%? (and the market caps weren't done declining yet)

The value in the market cap of the companies that provide the commodity in perpetual oversupply, and heading for market extinction, will disappear LONG before the unit volumes that the companies supply to the markets disappear.

For people steeped in the industry (now oil, but still applies to coal too), the long history and value of the industry will continue to be supported by the unit volumes. "Look at how important this industry is to the modern economy - it supplies 1/3rd of the primary energy the modern economy needs to operate. Renewables can't replace that today" (and it's true). That doesn't mean that the industry continues to be as valuable today as it was 1 year, 5 years, 15 years ago. Or that it will be as valuable in 5 years (or even 1 year) as it is today. And it doesn't mean that a barrel of oil today is worth as much as it was in the past.

The oil producers, in aggregate, are only avoiding massive oversupply of market demand by having about 1/2+ of the market collude to withhold supply that they could be providing. That supply is still on the sidelines and available should any demand growth show up that exceeds the pace of renewables build out and efficiency. And that looks to me like oversupply for another year or 2, and then we see what we see.

 

[Fallenone]

Looks like something is going to get signed real soon.

Tags on the left reads "People's Government of Shanghai City", on the right reads "Tesla Inc."

 

[austinEV]

I saw a rumor posted to Reddit /r/teslamotors (link to a China Daily article) that a China deal would be announced Thursday.

I'm skeptical given the long history of these rumors that never pan out, but it's something to look out for in the news. It's 9am right now on China's coast.

That rumor started here and migrated there

 

[vgrinshpun]

Looks like something is going to get signed real soon.

Tags on the left reads "People's Government of Shanghai City", on the right reads "Tesla Inc."

Thank you for posting this!

Could you elaborate a little on the picture? (where is it from, what is it of, was there an article accompanying it, etc.)
Thanks!

 

[Fallenone]

Thank you for posting this!

Could you elaborate a little on the picture? (where is it from, what is it off, was there an article accompanying it, etc.)
Thanks!

I got it from a friend who got it from a friend posted in social chat (WeChat) group. My guess is someone was at site when the tables are being set and took this picture and posted in on social media.

By all means, it could be a photoshop work... But given the rumor has been on for two days and Tesla not denying it (I remember they denied all other rumors within a day before), I think this time is for real.

 

[Runarbt]

I got it from a friend who got it from a friend posted in social chat (WeChat) group. My guess is someone was at site when the tables are being set and took this picture and posted in on social media.

By all means, it could be a photoshop work... But given the rumor has been on for two days and Tesla not denying it (I remember they denied all other rumors within a day before), I think this time is for real.

Shanghai: Please.. wait until market open!

I sold july calls 1hour before rumor got to TMC.. and wont be able to buy those back until market open today. (stupid rule about nbuying power at begining of day..)

 

[geneclean55]

I wonder if the big man himself will be signing the paper work

 

[Fallenone]

I wonder if the big man himself will be signing the paper work

Well he just tweeted mins ago so I guess no (Twitter is banned in China plus I guess you won't be tweeting before signing something important)

 

[geneclean55]

Well he just tweeted mins ago so I guess no (Twitter is banned in China plus I guess you won't be tweeting before signing something important)

I have seen Elon Tweet just before important events ... but your point about Twitter being banned is well taken.

 

[Fallenone]

I have seen Elon Tweet just before important events ... but your point about Twitter being banned is well taken.

There are many ways to bypass the ban. Like using WiFi at big international hotels, get a VPN, etc. So it doesn't mean that much...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Shanghai: Please.. wait until market open!

I sold july calls 1hour before rumor got to TMC.. and wont be able to buy those back until market open today. (stupid rule about nbuying power at begining of day..)

Sorry, but it is unlikely. At market open the local time will be 9:30pm, so if anything is indeed slated to be signed, the representatives who did the signing will most likely be dining and celebrating the deal with few toasts..

 

[geneclean55]

Looks like something is going to get signed real soon.

Tags on the left reads "People's Government of Shanghai City", on the right reads "Tesla Inc."

No additional tag for a local Chinese partner. Interesting...

 

[qunqun]

Thank you for posting this!

Could you elaborate a little on the picture? (where is it from, what is it of, was there an article accompanying it, etc.)
Thanks!

特斯拉与上海政府签建厂协议 合作方或为临港集团

 

[qunqun]

No additional tag for a local Chinese partner. Interesting...

There's three groups competing for the joint venture

 

[Waiting4M3]

特斯拉与上海政府签建厂协议 合作方或为临港集团

The gist I got is that Tesla still needs to partner with some local company, the article said that Tesla has turned down SAIC, which was proposed by Shanghai government (the government runs SAIC). Shanghai Lingang Economic Development Group is a possibility, and Shanghai Guosheng Group is also in the running. Tesla said that they don't want to partner with traditional car makers

 

[geneclean55]

June 22, Tesla and the Shanghai government signed an investment and construction agreement, Tesla new plant will be settled in Shanghai Port Development Zone, according to the current automotive industry policy, Tesla need to establish joint ventures with at least one local partner. According to informed sources to Dao Ge, Tesla in China partners have ruled SAIC Group, and will not be the traditional car companies, may be Shanghai Port Group, the Group's controlling shareholder for the Shanghai Electric Group.
According to the above sources, once the Shanghai municipal government to pull the Tesla and SAIC cooperation plant, but was Tesla CEO Elon Musk's to refuse, and said that in addition to SAIC Group, welcomed the non-automobile manufacturing enterprises joint venture. The news is that there are three groups in Shanghai for the joint venture opportunities, including the port group, Guosheng Group, Shanghai Electric Group.

From google translate