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Reciprocity
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Another data point. People have already found 10ish model 3s on eBay and Craigslist list:
Marked up resale model 3s showing up on eBay
Hard to believe only 1400 model 3s delivered this quarter.
Reciprocity
Active Member
No clue, but it did close in Feb of this year for 10 days or 2 weeks or something like that IIRC.
10 per day is more than one transporter can haul. Is this part of the push for the Semi? Or will the trains start rolling out soon? Stay tuned...
Past is prologue
"Selling, general and administrative expense consists primarily of personnel and facilities costs related to our stores, marketing, sales, executive, finance, human resources, information technology and legal organizations, as well as litigation settlements and fees for professional and contract services. Selling, general and administrative expense increased by $316.2 million, or 94%, in the three months ended September 30, 2017 as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2016. This increase was primarily due to a $148.1 million increase in employee and labor-rated expenses from increased headcount as a result of our acquisitions as well as headcount growth from the expansion of our automotive and energy storage businesses. Additionally, the increase was due to a $87.7 million increase in office, information technology and facilities-related expenses to support the growth of our business as well as sales and marketing activities to handle our expanding market presence and a $53.0 million increase in professional and outside service expenses to support the growth of our business."
Also remember from 2q16 Shareholder letter: " Non-GAAP sales, general and administrative expenses reflect careful expense management and would have been flat sequentially, except for a one-time payroll tax expense of $17 million associated with the exercise of CEO stock options that would have expired this year."?
dc_h
Active Member
Not closed, overtime. Definitely new shipments from Fremont and rising VIN count. 3500 was assigned and likely up to 3800 assigned. Assigned does not equal built or delivered, but implies entering production. Production likely 2500 to 3500 and deliveries around 2000. I'd have thought 1500, but appears they are pushing cars out of Fremont and marina Del Rey very quickly.
Great if they still produce this week!
My opinion is that they can even build higher VIN's right now:
- Cars build and waiting on the lot's. When a matching order is found, VIN appears on My Tesla.
- I guess they use VIN's after Dec. 22th. The 2018 range starts with VIN nr. approx. 3800
Waiting4M3
Active Member
M3 discussion starts around 10 min mark
Last edited:
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think assigned means that the car's color is known, which means it's at least through BIW and paint shop.
Actually, the Republican tax scam law which just passed, in a somewhat *random* change, allows NOLs to be rolled forward indefinitely. Though you can no longer roll them *back* to prior years (irrelevant to Tesla), and you can no longer use the NOL to wipe out your entire taxable income (so it takes more years to use them up and you do have to pay some tax each year you have profit). Just so y'all know.
Since the tax scam law opens up a *bunch* of new, easy-to-use loopholes, expect Tesla to start using them (it would be stupid not to); so don't be surprised if suddenly all of Tesla's short-term cash and all of Tesla's future borrowings (including refinancings) are done through a "partnership" wholly owned by Tesla, for the purposes of raking off the new pass-through deductions. Just be warned, when you see that weirdness coming up in the 10-Qs, that's what's going on. (Expect the short-sellers to make up bogus arguments about why this is bad news.)
Agreed. I'm fine with the open back-and-forth -- I can take it as well as I can dish it out -- but if mods are going to prohibit *making light fun of people for their behavior*, which is new policy, then myusername needs to be banned immediately.
Basically, but if you read the bill, the capital gains brackets no longer line up with the regular tax brackets. It's a complete mess.
Adam Jonas has never been right about *anything*, whether he's bullish or bearish. Like I said last year, he was attributing massive value to Tesla Mobility which is vaporware while attributing zero value to Tesla Energy which actually does generate some money. He's nuts. Ignore him completely. Musk has even gone "Really? That's what you're asking about?" in response to Jonas's bizarre questions in the earnings phone calls -- Musk doesn't take him seriously!
Myusername:
So, I don't agree with TT007's ultrabullishness, but again, I have to point out that existing ICE automakers have *suppressed stock prices*, suppressed P/Es and P/Ses, due to expectations of market shrinkage and lack of growth opportunities. You repeatedly ignore this even though it's actually pretty well understood if you read any articles about the industry.
Your model, thank you, shows that if Tesla successfully executes (as I believe it will), and becomes the size of Hyundai, TSLA is worth more than its current price. So, no downside risk other than failure to execute. But that's if it were priced like an existing ICE automaker, which it won't be.
I estimate that the existing ICE automakers all have P/Es suppressed by about 50% due to their expected shrinkage. So there's a very strong chance of TSLA, which lacks this drag on the stock price, doubling in price from here.
Here's a challenge: look at the Chinese auto manufacturers who are leading manufacturers of electric vehicles instead (yes, even the ones which also make ICE vehicles) -- which do not have the same drag on their ratios -- and use them as a comparison group for P/E and P/S numbers. Try it.
I still disagree with the ultrabullish view, but I'm perfectly content to double my money in five years (with an option on more if the stationary battery or solar roof businesses do better than breakeven) -- it's better than I'm likely to do in the S&P. If you've got a better investment, go for it.
Yep. It's possible...
5000 cars a week is 2 minutes per car. With 8 cars per truck they have to move a truck every 16 minutes. This is certainly possible, and not even out of line for an industrial facility. They'll have some problems with rush hour traffic, though.
10000 cars a week -- a car a minute -- means a truck has to move every 8 minutes. (Both in and out.) At this point the locals are going to get irritated at the level of truck traffic.
This is, of course, assuming that this is the only traffic to the factory. No parts coming in. No workers coming in or out. Since there are parts coming in, you probably have to double or quadruple the truck traffic load -- a truck in or out every 2 minutes -- and there's really no room left on the road for the workers. The locals will be screaming.
Musk has a blind spot when it comes to the economies of scale from railroads. (Perhaps the third largest corporate risk, after the fundamental communications failures and the incredible sloppiness in the software development department?)
Not that it makes much difference but almost all of the trucks I have seen Teslas get loaded on to held 9 cars.
Great points and appreciate you bringing those up! Wonder whether this is why they're aiming to reach 500k annually as their limit now (a tough task, I'd assume)? Then, parallelize Gigafactories (they've got 3 so far and 1 incoming in China so far) and try to reach the upperband to 1M cars per factory as automation improves.
I wonder if that's the reason for the Boring tunnels and Hyperloop alongside Tesla Semi and AI. All of these inventions seem extra-ordinary when taken out of context, but make sense once we start seeing concrete gains out in the public.
Sure, in good lighting, and in bad lighting they'll think African Americans are gorillas.
Why Google 'Thought' This Black Woman Was a Gorilla
So-called "deep learning" is actually really dumb, and we aren't anywhere close to having a system with 90% reliability. People may accept a crappy "full self driving" system because so many people are really terrible drivers, and I certainly encourage bad drivers to use these systems, but they won't be as good on weird roads as good drivers for *decades*. I predict we will actually need a third generation of AI -- the second-generation "deep learning" stuff isn't good enough.
On top of that, observational conditions for an automobile are truly HARSH. I still can't get a camera to do the automatic lighting and focus adjustments that my eyes do.
This was in September 2015 ....
Now in 2017 : Facebook’s facial recognition now finds photos you’re untagged in
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