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2018 Leaf vs Model 3

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The only interesting thing about the 2018 Leaf is ProPilot. From what I read it sounds like that will come standard? I'm interested to see how that compares with AutoPilot.

I thought so too at first, but it is in fact an optional add-on as part of the tech package. It's $2,200 and available on the SV trim and up, bringing the price to $35k min.

I watched the reveal last night. From what I recall I believe the Leaf has 4 cameras and pro pilot is only single lane driving. So, not as sophisticated as AP2 and the 8 cameras on M3.

That's correct. May have forward-facing radar too, but they didn't mention it in the presentation.
 
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Should we really compare Leaf with the TM3? I think it's more a competitor of the Chevy Bolt.....

This. That said, I think the new Leaf will sell very well and eliminate the range limits people like my wife experience while shuttling the kids around on wicked cold winter days. ProPilot would be great for her commute to work. I honestly love seeing more EVs released and am excited to have more options to suggest for people that are curious if an EV can work for them AND want to spend less than even the base Model 3.
 
This really concerns me.

So they are using 12 cameras and 4 lidar for full self driving.

We don't have any lidar and only 8 cameras...
Well the original AP1 only had 1 camera and 1 radar (backup camera excluded), but it still did better than others in controlled comparisons even though some of those had stereo cameras and 5 radar sensors.

Semi-Autonomous Cars Compared! Tesla vs. BMW, Mercedes, and Infiniti – Feature – Car and Driver

Unfortunately, no comparisons yet for AP2.
 
Leaf Gen 2 will definitely give M3 some competition. There will be other cars coming soon too to do the same. I think Tesla and the investors know that already. Leaf is less than 20k (after incentives). 150 mile range (perfect for daily commuter, soccer moms), autopilot, fun to drive. I think it checks off many boxes. Not bad if you lease is for less than $300/month and leave your luxury car in the garage for the weekend.
 
why not? if youre looking for an EV in the ~35k range, all 3 of these cars are available.
I think he meant that at that price range, why would you pick the Leaf 2 over the Model 3.

Also, technically only the Chevy Bolt is really available. The Leaf 2 isn't even on the market yet and the Model 3 while technically on the market, you will not be getting it for at least a year if you order one right now.
 
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thats gonna be pretty huge if they get propilot as standard. that would leave a 10k difference between the 2 cars for people that want autopilot

As mentioned above, it's not standard.

Maybe it's just me but I don't think Tesla get enough credit for their supercharging network. It makes a huge difference during road trip. This lady's video is a good example of how much worst it is to do a road trip when you don't have fast charging available.


The speed is a key point, but not the only one. Notice how many stations were at each of her stops? (Spoiler: 1) The combo of relatively slow speeds in addition to fewer stations at each location means they are effectively useless for trip planning. You don't know whether the single station will be functional, whether someone else will have just pulled in for a 1-hour stop, etc.

Leaf Gen 2 will definitely give M3 some competition. There will be other cars coming soon too to do the same. I think Tesla and the investors know that already. Leaf is less than 20k (after incentives). 150 mile range (perfect for daily commuter, soccer moms), autopilot, fun to drive. I think it checks off many boxes. Not bad if you lease is for less than $300/month and leave your luxury car in the garage for the weekend.

Leaf is not < $20k after incentives including ProPilot.

From what I understand the Leaf 2 still has passive battery cooling. This is a major problem in my eyes. Especially for people who live in hot climates.

Indeed. I have not seen specifics on the Leaf's BMS, but all indications that I have seen are that it's still passively-cooled. I'm not ready to suggest that this definitely indicates that the new Leaf will see large degradation, but it's likely that it will see greater degradation than the Model 3 or Bolt, both of which have active cooling systems.

All in all, the new Leaf is a great step forward for Nissan and the Leaf brand. But I think it's a relatively big stretch to compare it directly with the Model 3. Let's take the 'reasonable base' of each, which in my mind is the actual base Model 3 vs the Leaf SV (so you're not stuck with 3.3 kW charging on a 40 kWh battery). Let's also ignore incentives, since they vary by location and are also likely to be equal for both cars. This leaves us with a $35k Model 3 vs a likely $33k Leaf ($30k + destination + SV upcharge of around $3k between the two add-ons). For that extra $2k you're getting 70 more miles in range, Supercharger access, Tesla's OTA updates, a cleaner interior (I realize some may prefer the Leaf's, so discard this one if you please), a much peppier drive, a larger interior, and likely a lower degradation rate.

I think the Leaf's core selling point will be its availability for the next 12-18 months. For folks who didn't place a reservation in early 2016 for a Model 3, they can get a Leaf likely in the next few months. It's also a good choice for folks who really want to spend the minimum possible to get in to a reasonable-range EV. But I don't think it's a very good competitor for the Model 3, nor do I feel that Nissan intended it to be (at this stage--let's revisit in late 2018 when the 60 kWh version and pricing are available).

Easy choice for this Leaf owner-with-3/31/2016 Model 3 reservation: I'm going Model 3.
 
Maybe it's just me but I don't think Tesla get enough credit for their supercharging network. It makes a huge difference during road trip. This lady's video is a good example of how much worst it is to do a road trip when you don't have fast charging available.
As she noted in the video, she would have been happy enough with "50 kW" charging but presently (almost?) all of the CCS chargers between Portland and the border with California are 62A units that are about half the rate of "50 kW" chargers.

Two things she didn't mention in the video:

1. A 500 mile drive usually ends at a home or hotel that may have J1772 charging so the car can start off the next day with a full charge.

2. She didn't mention the near-term large buildout of CCS highway charging by VW's Electrify America which is almost certainly planned to cover I-5 through Oregon with 350A "150 kW" charging locations with 4+ parallel charging spaces per location within the next 2 years.

I recently drove from San Francisco to central Oregon for the solar eclipse. All of the CCS chargers between Sacramento and my destination were of the 60A type. The trip was no problem and involved only modest and convenient stops because I stayed overnight in Redding at hotels with 30A J1772 charging. My destination in central Bend also allowed me to plug in at 120V for the 3-4 days that I was visiting.
 
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As she noted in the video, she would have been happy enough with "50 kW" charging but presently (almost?) all of the CCS chargers between Portland and the border with California are 62A units that are about half the rate of "50 kW" chargers.

Two things she didn't mention in the video:

1. A 500 mile drive usually ends at a home or hotel that may have J1772 charging so the car can start off the next day with a full charge.

2. She didn't mention the near-term large buildout of CCS highway charging by VW's Electrify America which is almost certainly planned to cover I-5 through Oregon with 350A "150 kW" charging locations with 4+ parallel charging spaces per location within the next 2 years.

I recently drove from San Francisco to central Oregon for the solar eclipse. All of the CCS chargers between Sacramento and my destination were of the 60A type. The trip was no problem and involved only modest and convenient stops because I stayed overnight in Redding at hotels with 30A J1772 charging. My destination in central Bend also allowed me to plug in at 120V for the 3-4 days that I was visiting.
I mean you can definitely get around the limitation of not having a supercharging network. But once you are used to being able to charge 170 miles per half hour, anything else in comparison will seem unacceptable.
 
Any EV that might take even 1 sale away from the Tesla is, technically, a competitor. The more formidable competitors will take more sales away because they have similar, different, or even better offerings. That said, I don't think tesla has anything to be worried about from the Leaf. The only people who would choose the Leaf over the base model 3 for an extra $5K and give up significant advantages (range, supercharger network, upgradability, proven battery longevity and resale values, etc) are doing so because they can't wait or can't afford the model 3. Nothing tesla can do for them. This release by Nissan just makes me more confident in my choice of the Tesla.
 
Leaf Gen 2 will definitely give M3 some competition. There will be other cars coming soon too to do the same. I think Tesla and the investors know that already. Leaf is less than 20k (after incentives). 150 mile range (perfect for daily commuter, soccer moms), autopilot, fun to drive. I think it checks off many boxes. Not bad if you lease is for less than $300/month and leave your luxury car in the garage for the weekend.
My 2012 leaf suffered battery deterioration over the 3 years that I leased it. It lost 3 bars on the indicator and Nissan would not address the problem. The dealer still mail me oil change coupons. I will never purchase another Nissan product.
 
I mean you can definitely get around the limitation of not having a supercharging network. But once you are used to being able to charge 170 miles per half hour, anything else in comparison will seem unacceptable.

This. The first time I supercharged a Model S I rented for a weekend- and this after owning my Volt for a year and a half- I wanted to cry LOL! :(
 
Any EV that might take even 1 sale away from the Tesla is, technically, a competitor. The more formidable competitors will take more sales away because they have similar, different, or even better offerings. That said, I don't think tesla has anything to be worried about from the Leaf. The only people who would choose the Leaf over the base model 3 for an extra $5K and give up significant advantages (range, supercharger network, upgradability, proven battery longevity and resale values, etc) are doing so because they can't wait or can't afford the model 3. Nothing tesla can do for them. This release by Nissan just makes me more confident in my choice of the Tesla.
According to this article the Model S, X and the Chevy Bolt are all outselling the first Leaf. I think what Tesla should be the most concern about is the Model 3 decreasing the sales of the Model S and X.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
 
According to this article the Model S, X and the Chevy Bolt are all outselling the first Leaf. I think what Tesla should be the most concern about is the Model 3 decreasing the sales of the Model S and X.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

That is a real problem for Tesla and the origin of the "anti-sell". Tesla's job is to keep product differentiation between the lines. They need to show value for each line. We see them actively doing this by lowering the 0-60 times of the S/X line. The free supercharging, the auto shut doors/hatches. Every company faces this challenge. I'm sure the infamous HUD will be appearing in the S/X line soon. Tesla is fine just selling you a vehicle. They probably make more profit on the fully optioned model 3 than the base S anyway. The real crux is that there are not enough 3s yet....
 
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As mentioned above, it's not standard.



The speed is a key point, but not the only one. Notice how many stations were at each of her stops? (Spoiler: 1) The combo of relatively slow speeds in addition to fewer stations at each location means they are effectively useless for trip planning. You don't know whether the single station will be functional, whether someone else will have just pulled in for a 1-hour stop, etc.



Leaf is not < $20k after incentives including ProPilot.



Indeed. I have not seen specifics on the Leaf's BMS, but all indications that I have seen are that it's still passively-cooled. I'm not ready to suggest that this definitely indicates that the new Leaf will see large degradation, but it's likely that it will see greater degradation than the Model 3 or Bolt, both of which have active cooling systems.

All in all, the new Leaf is a great step forward for Nissan and the Leaf brand. But I think it's a relatively big stretch to compare it directly with the Model 3. Let's take the 'reasonable base' of each, which in my mind is the actual base Model 3 vs the Leaf SV (so you're not stuck with 3.3 kW charging on a 40 kWh battery). Let's also ignore incentives, since they vary by location and are also likely to be equal for both cars. This leaves us with a $35k Model 3 vs a likely $33k Leaf ($30k + destination + SV upcharge of around $3k between the two add-ons). For that extra $2k you're getting 70 more miles in range, Supercharger access, Tesla's OTA updates, a cleaner interior (I realize some may prefer the Leaf's, so discard this one if you please), a much peppier drive, a larger interior, and likely a lower degradation rate.

I think the Leaf's core selling point will be its availability for the next 12-18 months. For folks who didn't place a reservation in early 2016 for a Model 3, they can get a Leaf likely in the next few months. It's also a good choice for folks who really want to spend the minimum possible to get in to a reasonable-range EV. But I don't think it's a very good competitor for the Model 3, nor do I feel that Nissan intended it to be (at this stage--let's revisit in late 2018 when the 60 kWh version and pricing are available).

Easy choice for this Leaf owner-with-3/31/2016 Model 3 reservation: I'm going Model 3.
I agree with all of this today. In 6 months or a year the Model 3 will still cost $35k while the LEAF2 will cost whatever it takes to move around 30k units for CARB credits. And I would not ignore the marketing power of the lease.

Have a look at GM Bolt pricing in CA and the CARB states, just ~ 6 months after introduction. I expect the same for the LEAF2
 
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That is a real problem for Tesla and the origin of the "anti-sell". Tesla's job is to keep product differentiation between the lines. They need to show value for each line. We see them actively doing this by lowering the 0-60 times of the S/X line. The free supercharging, the auto shut doors/hatches. Every company faces this challenge. I'm sure the infamous HUD will be appearing in the S/X line soon. Tesla is fine just selling you a vehicle. They probably make more profit on the fully optioned model 3 than the base S anyway. The real crux is that there are not enough 3s yet....
Yeah, I really don't think Tesla right now is concerned about other companies. They can't even meet the demand they have now. They have a lot of decisions about what they want to focus on going forward that are much more of a priority than what Nissan is making.