2018 Leaf vs Model 3

[internalaudit]

The first real all electric, easily available car was Nissan Leaf, its sales were very interesting. Telsa must be praised because they are really pushing electric cars.
A big advantage of Tesla cars is about the fact they are selling them cheaper than they cost, this is not viable in the long term, but for consumers it's great, but it can't be like that forever.
The new Leaf sounds like a great car, the range of 230k miles is a big improvement and when most be able to buy the model 3, probably the range of the leaf will be even better. Model 3 is far from cheap, the base mode is very basic, when you start to add the great stuff, price skyrockets.
Normally the price of the cars is under evaluated on most reviews, but making something great at any price is a lot easier than making something good at a reasonable price.
Model 3 coolness is really good, but many of it it's impractical, that huge screen to control everything can't beat usability of dedicated buttons for dedicated functions per example (note that dedicated buttons is the more expensive solution - take the example of photographic cameras - cheap ones use the screen for most operations).
Currently Tesla and Nissan (maybe Chevrolet too now) are way ahead of everyone else regarding all electric cars, but I believe other current big car manufacturers will catch up very fast and will keep the lead they currently have (GM, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, ...).

Only thing holding some of them back is the battery price. Margins are likely thinner compared to ICE/transmission but if advancements are made, they will be quicker to jump on board.

It's as if patents can prevent reverse engineering of battery packs.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Currently Tesla and Nissan (maybe Chevrolet too now) are way ahead of everyone else regarding all electric cars, but I believe other current big car manufacturers will catch up very fast and will keep the lead they currently have (GM, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, ...).

There's been a continual squeeze on car manufacturing as the technological requirements have increased and that's with ICE. Many manufacturers have failed and been bought out. I think it's really naive to think that all the traditional manufacturers will transition neatly into the EV age.

 

[Hitman007]

Should we really compare Leaf with the TM3? I think it's more a competitor of the Chevy Bolt.....

I think they are both competitors to the M3

 

[internalaudit]

There's been a continual squeeze on car manufacturing as the technological requirements have increased and that's with ICE. Many manufacturers have failed and been bought out. I think it's really naive to think that all the traditional manufacturers will transition neatly into the EV age.

Every maker he/she listed -- GM, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW -- will make it. They all have experience with hybrid and PHEV technology, which is just one short of removing the ICE and beefing up the battery pack.

I agree with you that not all car manufacturers will survive. Only those that will be cash flow positive (eventually, hopefully) will.

 

[AlexM]

Every maker he/she listed -- GM, Toyota, Mercedes, BMW -- will make it. They all have experience with hybrid and PHEV technology, which is just one short of removing the ICE and beefing up the battery pack.

I agree with you that not all car manufacturers will survive. Only those that will be cash flow positive (eventually, hopefully) will.

Probably not all manufacturers, but most of them, the main ones for sure. Anyway currently there are not that many manufactures, main ones are huge groups of brands.

We are shifting from a world where the mechanical greatness is paramount, to a world where batteries (range) and technology are the game changers. Per example German brands will see their extra value being erased because gearbox will no longer be an issue and everybody can make a great electric motor, but there is still the ride quality, reliability, interior quality, design, ... "traditional" brands will not be sleeping over their laurels.

Electric cars are still a tough buy for the majority, batteries need to roughly duplicate in quality (price, size, weight, life, capacity) so they completely kill ICE cars - my guess is that will happen in 10 to 20 years.

 

[internalaudit]

Probably not all manufacturers, but most of them, the main ones for sure. Anyway currently there are not that many manufactures, main ones are huge groups of brands.

We are shifting from a world where the mechanical greatness is paramount, to a world where batteries (range) and technology are the game changers. Per example German brands will see their extra value being erased because gearbox will no longer be an issue and everybody can make a great electric motor, but there is still the ride quality, reliability, interior quality, design, ... "traditional" brands will not be sleeping over their laurels.

Electric cars are still a tough buy for the majority, batteries need to roughly duplicate in quality (price, size, weight, life, capacity) so they completely kill ICE cars - my guess is that will happen in 10 to 20 years.

Not sure if this is lip service from BMW but looking forward to the 2020 X3 BEV.

BMW seriously updates its EV plans with 12 all-electric cars, claims some with over ‘400 miles’ of range

Harald Krüger, Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG, clarified the company’s position during a speech for a preview IAA 2017 today:

“Let me make one thing very clear: In e-mobility, the BMW Group will also be the leading provider in the premium segment. By 2025, we will offer 25 electrified vehicles – 12 will be fully-electric. Today, and at the IAA, you will see the concept vehicle for the first series electric MINI, for release in 2019. As we have announced, we will be introducing the first BMW core model – the X3 – as a BEV in 2020. Going forward, all fully-electric BMWs will belong to BMW i. This also applies to the X3. We have also announced the BMW iNEXT – our next innovation spearhead – for 2021.”

Klaus Fröhlich, Member of the Board of Management of BMW AG for Development, also confirmed that the electric Mini and X3 will be mass-produced, which should significantly increase the volume of all-electric vehicle delivered by the company.

 

[diplomat33]

This really concerns me.

So they are using 12 cameras and 4 lidar for full self driving.

We don't have any lidar and only 8 cameras...

Tesla cars also have radar and ultrasonic sensors in addition to the 8 cameras. I think that is sufficient for FSD. The real issue is processing power and software. I don't think LIDAR is required for FSD.

 

[zag2me]

Underestimate Nissan at your peril... They have the manufacturing base to pop these out pretty quickly and its quite a compelling car for places like Britain where you are not doing huge road trips all the time.

The current Leaf is quite popular here already, I see loads on the road around me so it will be interesting to see how this goes. I actually quite like the new looks of it as well.

 

[pdq]

So the launch of the 2018 Nissan Leaf was yesterday and the folks at Tesla must be very happy. It will have only 150 miles range! That makes it a non-competitor with the Model 3 except to a very small group of low milage commuters who can afford a second ICE car for weekend trips. Where as the Model 3 owners can probably do everything with just the one car. So Tesla is still supreme in technology and range! If they can just get their parts/repair problems worked out I will be back to buy a Tesla again.

I think that you need to tame your enthusiasm. A range of 150 miles will probably be more than enough to comfortably meet the needs of 95% of people in their daily commutes. If they need a long range car for a vacation, they can call Enterprise versus owning a second ICE vehicle.

And yes, I agree with you, it truly will be a blessing when Tesla gets their parts/repair problems worked out, as it's currently horrendous. I made the mistake of running the front of my car over a curb when parking. It was bad enough that the repair cost $7,000, but worse that it was 2 months before the repair shop got most of the parts needed.

 

[Beckler]

After extensive research, I have discovered the simplest reason why one shouldn't even consider (for now) any non-Tesla EV:

 

[pdq]

The M3 reveal had anti selling written all over it. They really want people to consider the MS and MX instead.

I agree. Also, they released 30 cars, but not to the buying public, but rather to employees reportedly for reliability testing. It's now been 5 weeks since the 7/28 event -- does anyone know if they're actively selling M3s to owners?

 

[Runt8]

A big advantage of Tesla cars is about the fact they are selling them cheaper than they cost, this is not viable in the long term, but for consumers it's great, but it can't be like that forever.

Are you suggesting it costs Tesla more money to make each car than they sell them for?

 

[TomT]

Yes, it still has no TMS. Nissan claims that the battery chemistry is now more heart resistant but as an owner of a 2011 Leaf who suffered through degradation problems, no TMS is a deal breaker for me...

From what I understand the Leaf 2 still has passive battery cooling. This is a major problem in my eyes. Especially for people who live in hot climates.

 

[Louwrens]

In Europe and especially for the Netherlands, the Leaf and other new coming EC's (VW Golf E and Opel Ampera) are more probably a threat for Tesla 3. First Tesla 3 deliveries in the Netherlands will take place at the end of 2018. In the Netherlands driving EC's as a company car is yet stimulated by a huge income tax reduction (4% instead of 25% of the car price as tax income) and green companies and public sector are in favor of driving EC's. As a lot of companies are now interested buying EC's as a result of the higher actieradius/range, there will be a run on family cars with more range. And these cars are contracted for 3-5 years. Tesla must therefore augment its production to avoid a big market loss in Europe. All popular car companies are awakening and are pushing new electric cars on the market for a lower price than the Tesla 3. The fast charge facilities like Fastned are also rolled-out quickly in the Netherlands. As being a Tesla favorite and proud Model X driver, I hope Tesla is aware of this market development and will roll-out the Tesla 3 much faster in Europe to coop with the competition of the traditional European car industry. Please augment your production for Europe!

 

[syoo47]

As mentioned above, it's not standard.



The speed is a key point, but not the only one. Notice how many stations were at each of her stops? (Spoiler: 1) The combo of relatively slow speeds in addition to fewer stations at each location means they are effectively useless for trip planning. You don't know whether the single station will be functional, whether someone else will have just pulled in for a 1-hour stop, etc.



Leaf is not < $20k after incentives including ProPilot.



Indeed. I have not seen specifics on the Leaf's BMS, but all indications that I have seen are that it's still passively-cooled. I'm not ready to suggest that this definitely indicates that the new Leaf will see large degradation, but it's likely that it will see greater degradation than the Model 3 or Bolt, both of which have active cooling systems.

All in all, the new Leaf is a great step forward for Nissan and the Leaf brand. But I think it's a relatively big stretch to compare it directly with the Model 3. Let's take the 'reasonable base' of each, which in my mind is the actual base Model 3 vs the Leaf SV (so you're not stuck with 3.3 kW charging on a 40 kWh battery). Let's also ignore incentives, since they vary by location and are also likely to be equal for both cars. This leaves us with a $35k Model 3 vs a likely $33k Leaf ($30k + destination + SV upcharge of around $3k between the two add-ons). For that extra $2k you're getting 70 more miles in range, Supercharger access, Tesla's OTA updates, a cleaner interior (I realize some may prefer the Leaf's, so discard this one if you please), a much peppier drive, a larger interior, and likely a lower degradation rate.

I think the Leaf's core selling point will be its availability for the next 12-18 months. For folks who didn't place a reservation in early 2016 for a Model 3, they can get a Leaf likely in the next few months. It's also a good choice for folks who really want to spend the minimum possible to get in to a reasonable-range EV. But I don't think it's a very good competitor for the Model 3, nor do I feel that Nissan intended it to be (at this stage--let's revisit in late 2018 when the 60 kWh version and pricing are available).

Easy choice for this Leaf owner-with-3/31/2016 Model 3 reservation: I'm going Model 3.

I think a more likely comparison would be between these two setups:

Base Model 3 $35k
Color: $1k
Premium features: $5k
Enhanced Auto Pilot: $5k
Total: $46k plus tax & destination & title fees

2018 Nissan Leaf SL (top of the line): $36,200
Color: $395
Premium features: included (heated seats, premium sound)
ProPilot: included (single lane automation, automatic emergency braking, lane drift warning)
Total: $37k plus tax & destination & title fees

So it's really a difference of $9k plus tax difference - so close to $10k -- greater if you ordered your Model 3 late and will not qualify for the Federal rebate of $7500 -- though Nissan is getting close to their limit as well.

For myself, as mainly a commuter, the Leaf is a very attractive option. Yes, it's not as sexy or peppy as the tesla, but I've been very happy with the 2013 Leaf as my daily driver and can only imaging Leaf 2.0 being a lot better. I am a bit worried by the fact that Leaf resale values have dropped like a rock, but I'm not sure how much that matters if I resign myself to driving my cars for at least 10 years - and yes, I'm keeping my old Leaf. Though honestly with a Tesla, I'd be more likely to want to update more often once Tesla announces autopilot 3.0.

So I can't really decide...

 

[nikeykid]

It's now been 5 weeks since the 7/28 event -- does anyone know if they're actively selling M3s to owners?

if this had happened already, you'd seen 100 threads started already by current owners that live closest to factory. including myself. until then, assume we haven't received our invitation to order yet.

 

[jim5359]

This is still like comparing a Toyota corolla to a BMW 3 series.

Absolutely right. And the Toyota Corolla outsells the BMW 3 series by nearly 3 to 1 worldwide. It's not surprising that people on this board are much more focused on aesthetics, bells and whistles and performance. But most of the world is looking for an affordable, dependable daily transportation vehicle. On that the Leaf and Bolt deliver.

If given the choice between a well equiped Toyota Corolla and a stripped down BMW 3 series, most (outside this board) will buy the Corolla.

 

[C141medic]

am a bit worried by the fact that Leaf resale values have dropped like a rock,

You're not kidding. If you're in NJ you can get a 2017 Leaf for cheap: PSEG nissan-leaf

 

[nasatech]

I guess this new Leaf will sell loads in Norway. The old model was the most registered (most sold) EV in Norway in July. Even though they knew about this new version.

Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

 

[Vsasson]

The only interesting thing about the 2018 Leaf is ProPilot. From what I read it sounds like that will come standard? I'm interested to see how that compares with AutoPilot.

Well, it also has one-pedal operation that brings the car to a stop without using the brake pedal, similar to what is available in the BMW i3. The strong regenerative braking likely will extend the range a bit. For the vast majority who charge their cars at home like their phones, the new Leaf is a winner. It's especially suited to seniors, whose driving is limited.