2020 Shipping Movements

[bhav]

Thanks but at least it means that the posts remain on topic, which is unusual.
Wait for the VIN hunting season.....

Do you foresee this being a quarter where they stick to their usual pattern, or will we actually see ships continuing to arrive later into the quarter and hence deliveries happening at the start of Q3?

Just curious, as I guess there's a possibility that they just won't have many or any ships coming this way this Q depending on if/when factory back up and running??

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Do you foresee this being a quarter where they stick to their usual pattern, or will we actually see ships continuing to arrive later into the quarter and hence deliveries happening at the start of Q3?

Just curious, as I guess there's a possibility that they just won't have many or any ships coming this way this Q depending on if/when factory back up and running??

I recon it all depends how long this goes on for and which markets start ordering creating demand. There have been a couple of thousand new inventory cars in the US for a few weeks despite none being made. The market really is pretty dead at the moment.

 

[Mr Miserable]

I recon it all depends how long this goes on for and which markets start ordering creating demand. There have been a couple of thousand new inventory cars in the US for a few weeks despite none being made. The market really is pretty dead at the moment.

I suspect there is a greater demand for parts than cars at present and so I hope Tesla take the present situation as an opportunity to address this shortcoming. If the factory does reopen on 4 May, parts would be a quick cash generator.
But I'm going off thread......

 

[Joelly]

Thanks @Mr Miserable. This is going to be an extremely interesting thread over the following few months. I wouldnt be surprised to see minimal ships this Q, with a return to normality the following Q, ie if you havent got your car yet, you're most likely waiting until August/September for Europe deliveries. Im happy to be wrong though

 

[Mr Miserable]

Looks like Doreen is back at work, or at least she has popped in to catch up a little.
Doreen works in the ship cancellation department at Tesla.
She has cancelled the visit of GLOVIS STELLA to Pier 80.
Go home now Doreen.


Stay safe...

 

[Joelly]

@Mr Miserable, I am going to test your memory here, but I hope you can help me.

I am assuming there are no ships en-route that departed prior to Covid lockdowns? Also wondered how many ships were en-route this time last quarter and assuming latest information of cancellations up to Glovis Stella, at the expected date of departure of the Glovis Stella, how many ships were enroute by that point, compared to 0 this quarter?

If you were to take a guess, when would you expect the next deliveries to take place from cars that are not currently in the UK?

 

[Mr Miserable]

There is a very small window of opportunity remaining to ship Model 3s to EU this quarter.

To arrive in EU for distribution and delivery before the end of the quarter the final shipment from Pier 80 should be aiming to arrive around 19 June at the latest which means it must depart Pier 80 around 29 May.
If the factory reopens on 4 May (GF1 in Nevada has announced it will reopen then) the earliest I would expect a shipload to be ready for loading would be around May 12.
So the window for EU shipments for Pier 80 is roughly 12 - 28 May.
There are plenty of ships available for that period at the moment.
Clearly if the factory doesn't open on the 4th that 16 day window will shrink accordingly and there are other markets that Tesla will want to ship to as well.

There is however the East Coast option which may be an attractive option to squeeze in a last minute shipment to EU this quarter.
This involves trucking the cars to Philidelphia and shipping them from there. It was last done last year at the end of Q3.
Last year the reports of the transcontinental trucking operation gave plenty of warning of the cunning plan.

 

[Mr Miserable]

@Mr Miserable, I am going to test your memory here, but I hope you can help me.

I am assuming there are no ships en-route that departed prior to Covid lockdowns? Also wondered how many ships were en-route this time last quarter and assuming latest information of cancellations up to Glovis Stella, at the expected date of departure of the Glovis Stella, how many ships were enroute by that point, compared to 0 this quarter?

If you were to take a guess, when would you expect the next deliveries to take place from cars that are not currently in the UK?

No need to test my memory - here is an excellent spreadsheet that has all the data on past shipping!
Hope my previous post answers your final question.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The GLOVIS STELLA is still showing on marinetraffic.com as heading for San Francisco and this is why it's showing as scheduled on the spreadsheet (linked above).

Although the GLOVIS STELLA was originally heading to Pier 80 it has since been diverted and is actually now heading for a Mexican port instead. It's course would suggest Lazaro Cardenas.
It is however still showing on the San Francisco port schedule as arriving on the 8 May, which is later than originally planned, so it still may be inbound to Pier 80, albeit via Mexico.

In any case the ship will not be EU bound, in my opinion, for the following reasons:
The ship is a big one and with the factory still closed I cannot see it being filled to capacity - nowhere near.
It is only scheduled at the moment to be alongside for 2 days, which is not long enough to load fully.
The cost of a canal transit for a ship of this size would mean it needs to be loaded to near capacity to make financial sense.
I cannot find the ship featuring on any European port schedules in May/June.

I suspect that if the ship does pitch up at Pier 80 it will be bound for Shanghai.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The latest San Francisco port schedule shows that Pier 80 will be occupied by an oil tanker, STENA SUNRISE, from 11 May until 17 May.
This narrows the opportunity for EU shipments to approximately 11 days, 17 - 28 May.
Theoretically, if the factory was in full production from say, 11 May, we could squeeze 3 boatloads into that window.

 

[Noel83]

Sorry if I’ve missed it guys but is there any chance that there’s a bunch of M3’s sat in Southampton having been unloaded from ships in March that haven’t made it to Tesla?!

 

[Mr Miserable]

Sorry if I’ve missed it guys but is there any chance that there’s a bunch of M3’s sat in Southampton having been unloaded from ships in March that haven’t made it to Tesla?!

I believe there will be still some there and at a couple of disused airfields that the leasing companies (and Tesla) use.

 

[Mr Miserable]

There is some good news on the shipping front and that is that it has been raining in Panama.
Panama has been suffering a drought for the last couple of years which has meant that the waterlevel in the Gatun Lake, which provides the water for the canal locks, has been running uncomfortably low.
In the past year the canal authority has reduced the number of daily transits available as a water conservation measure and increased the cost of a transit to compensate for the loss of income. Additionally ,it also introduced a maximum draught limit that was due to be reduced further on 17 April. Happily the draught reduction has now been postponed because of the recent rains.
Sadly though it will need to rain a lot more before the canal returns to normal operations...

 

[Noel83]

I believe there will be still some there and at a couple of disused airfields that the leasing companies (and Tesla) use.

Thank you, here’s hoping that some of those eventually head to evezy!

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Another bunch of about 25 cars have been released to UK inventory over night - I doubt this is a "ship load" but with nearly 180 new inventory cars in the UK now you'd be unlucky not to have a match for any spec at the moment, and certainly not if you're prepared to flex a little. If there are delays then I'd suggest its not because of Tesla and it is evezy being a little (and understandably) cautious on how many cars they're willing to take delivery of.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The GLOVIS STELLA is, as forecast, now alongside in Mexico at Lazero Cadenas.
What is unusual is that marinetraffic.com, which is usually very reliable, has been so very wrong about this ship's movements.
The site is still saying that the Stella is bound for San Francisco and is also displaying an incorrect position.
I think we must ignore marinetraffic on this one.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Hope that the Fremont factory would resume work on Monday have been dashed by the announcement today that Alemeda county (and 5 other Bay area counties) have extended their shelter-in-place order to the end of May.....

I think we can forget any deliveries to the EU this quarter....

 

[Qudrio]

Hope that the Fremont factory would resume work on Monday have been dashed by the announcement today that Alemeda county (and 5 other Bay area counties) have extended their shelter-in-place order to the end of May.....

I think we can forget any deliveries to the EU this quarter....

Do you have an overview of how many cars are heading over the sea or are in the zeebrugge for transport further?

 

[Mr Miserable]

There are no Model 3s at sea at present.
I don't believe there are any left on the dock at Zeebrugge either.
There may be some S/X at Tilburg.

 

[Noel83]

Another bunch of about 25 cars have been released to UK inventory over night - I doubt this is a "ship load" but with nearly 180 new inventory cars in the UK now you'd be unlucky not to have a match for any spec at the moment, and certainly not if you're prepared to flex a little. If there are delays then I'd suggest its not because of Tesla and it is evezy being a little (and understandably) cautious on how many cars they're willing to take delivery of.

Yeah that’s fair, people in 45th and 58th position for SR+ have been offered cars so a lot of people are clearly declining right now! If they offered me a new white M3P I’d want to say no right now but it’d be hard!!!