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2020 Shipping Movements

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Moving on topic :D Do you have an idea of how many days or maybe hours before zeebrugge we could expect to get tracking from landbased receivers again @Mr Miserable
RCC ANTWERP is unlikely to appear on land based receivers until late 8/early9 Nov when she approaches the English Channel. If she changes her route because of weather and or heads further east she may be picked up briefly by a receiver in the Azores. There are one or two ships around that rebroadcast local AIS positions but they are pretty rare (often cruise ships).
I will continue to monitor her via satellite and do a daily update on her midday position.
 
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RCC ANTWERP is currently maintaining 18 kts across the Atlantic
At midday Z her position was N27.9 W57.7 which is about 440 nm SE of Bermuda
She has 3040nm to go. The weather in the north of the N Atlantic is quite stormy at the moment but the weather along RCC ANTWERP’s track remains pretty calm until possibly Friday night/Saturday when from the outlook it could get a little more interesting.
ETA Zeebrugge 10 Nov and Southampton 13 Nov

RCC ANTWERP ATLANTIC PROGRESS.png


TRITON ACE continues to make excellent progress down the Pacific coast of Mexico at just over 17kts.
At midday Z her position wasN17.7 W104.4 which is about 260nm NNW of Acapulco.
She is however about to hit some very unusual weather tomorrow afternoon .

Screenshot 2020-11-03 at 12.18.01.png


We saw the same phenomena the other week when RCC ANTWERP was passing (see post 6105) but the pressure gradient caused by Hurricane Eta in the Caribbean has made the Tehuantepecer winds particularly strong at the moment. We have winds of more than 50 kts blowing out to sea and waves of up to 7 metres high being kicked up for hundreds of miles out to sea. A few vessels have routed further out into the Pacific to avoid the disturbance but TRITON ACE hasn’t yet and may have to cross the area, at a right angle to both the seas and the wind, which is localised to an area about 150nm wide. Another benefit of heading further into the Pacific would be to remain clear of a possible path of Hurricane Eta (now a category 4 monster storm) if it crosses from the Caribbean into the Pacific. Quite where this powerful hurricane will end up is anyone’s guess at the moment but one of the options is for it to end up in the Pacific. I sometimes question whether these ships receive any quality weather and routing information. We saw several instances in the last year of ships blindly maintaining their programmed route despite it taking them through forecasted Atlantic storms when a course correction of just a few degrees several days earlier would have kept them well clear (and on time). To avoid the worst of the weather out at sea she may have an option of hugging the coastline as close to the shore as possible. This reduces the wave size because of the smaller fetch and also the wind strength will be less since the main blast may still be blowing over the top of her.
At the moment she is still on schedule to arrive off Panama next Saturday evening.
She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 20 Nov and Southampton on 22 Nov

Don’t forget to enter the TRITON ACE competition - Enter HERE

GRAND AURORA continues to load at Pier 80. Her loading has been a little slow - I don’t know why. She is due to depart tomorrow night and I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 25 Nov and Southampton possibly on 28 Nov

TOSCANA continues up the busy Malacca Strait.
We stopped receiving terrestrial AIS position reports from her after she was passing Kuala Lumpur last night. No satellite reports are being received either. I estimate that she will be about 100SW on Penang at midday and I am hopeful we will get some more position reports before she passes the Banda Aceh peninsula into the southern part of the Bay of Bengal. She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 27 Nov

Toscana to Suez.png


TANNHAUSER has a revised schedule. She now will not dock in Shanghai until tomorrow. She remains holding offshore. (For some reason her terrestrial position reports are not being received however I have her satellite position which is in the same area) I have no idea the reason for the delay. She is not due to depart until Friday. She needs to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Atsani which should be south of Taiwan on Friday. At the moment it doesn’t look as though it will form into a typhoon but a tropical storm can have winds over 70 mph and so it is not a thing to ignore. I’m hoping that TANNHAUSER will enter the area after the storm has passed and so unlike TOSCANA she should not be in any rush to leave early and a delay might just work in her favour. I’m also hopeful that the storm might start to decay - it seems pretty stationary at the moment about 400nm SE of Taiwan.
 
Does the offloading go quicker than loading ? It seemes loading takes 3-4 days ?
Not really. It just depends on how slick the operation is and how many stevedores are involved. As far as the ship is concerned the ship has to be ballasted carefully for both operations to prevent a lean or instability developing and there is a loading plan that is strictly adhered to which will detail the order in which the decks are loaded/unloaded. At Pier 80 it takes about 3 days to fully load a Panamax vessel. From watching Shanghai recently it seems this is done in under 2 days there. Zeebrugge are pretty slick, the handling company there, ICO, are very experienced and have done a great job so far this year but they will be tested later this month.
 
Thank you for your contributions, Mr Miserable. Very interesting and informative!

I have two questions:
1) How much does it cost to charter ro-ros of this size for a trip like this?
2) I have so far only seen reports of M3LR orders getting VINs and specific delivery dates. Is it possible/usual that RCC Antwerp and the first vessels are LR only with Performance models to be on later vessels?
 
Thank you for your contributions, Mr Miserable. Very interesting and informative!
I have two questions:
1) How much does it cost to charter ro-ros of this size for a trip like this?
2) I have so far only seen reports of M3LR orders getting VINs and specific delivery dates. Is it possible/usual that RCC Antwerp and the first vessels are LR only with Performance models to be on later vessels?
1. Will be a very closely guarded secret both within Tesla and Glovis Hyundai. This is the case with most shipping charters but in the RoRo business it is especially so. There have been lots of accusations of price-fixing in this industry and some cases actually went all the way to court. Some car manufacturers formed their own shipping companies so that they were not held to ransom by the industry.
2. A question for another thread.
 
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1. Will be a very closely guarded secret both within Tesla and Glovis Hyundai. This is the case with most shipping charters but in the RoRo business it is especially so. There have been lots of accusations of price-fixing in this industry and some cases actually went all the way to court. Some car manufacturers formed their own shipping companies so that they were not held to ransom by the industry.
2. A question for another thread.

#1 was something I also was curious about, especially how it would break down to cost per car. I guess Tesla has quite a margin on its cars by now.
A related question, do you have any ballpark estimate of the fuel consumed / car to transport it to Europe from the US on a vessel like these?
 
TOSCANA briefly popped up a couple of hours ago.
Her position at 1329Z was N5.0 E098.6 which is pretty much where I estimated her to be in the Malacca Straits. She is maintaining about 14kts which means she is pretty much bang-on on schedule.
I think will will receive a couple more sniffs from her before she disappears into the Bay of Bengal.
 
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#1 was something I also was curious about, especially how it would break down to cost per car. I guess Tesla has quite a margin on its cars by now.
A related question, do you have any ballpark estimate of the fuel consumed / car to transport it to Europe from the US on a vessel like these?

I don't know the figures except that they are huge. The fuel consumption is very sensitive to speed, sea state and headwind and so can vary considerably.
These ships traditionally used the cheapest fuel available - heavy fuel oil. This was a residue from a crude oil distillation process. It was dirty and dangerously polluting particularly with regard to sulphur.
It's interesting to see when air quality is measured how poor the air quality is at places that are close to the English Channel.
That fresh sea air ain't so fresh.
New regulations came in to force in 2020 in an effort to significantly reduce reduce sulphur emissions from ships.
Sulphur 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions
I'm sure @VanillaAir_UK can contribute more knowledgeably on this issue...
 
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Thank you for your contributions, Mr Miserable. Very interesting and informative!

I have two questions:
1) How much does it cost to charter ro-ros of this size for a trip like this?
2) I have so far only seen reports of M3LR orders getting VINs and specific delivery dates. Is it possible/usual that RCC Antwerp and the first vessels are LR only with Performance models to be on later vessels?


The answer to your second question is no. My SR+ is on the Antwerp, confirmed by Tesla themselves.
 
On the RoRo costs -- you can get (excluding port fees either end etc) a car shipped for around $1200-1400 approx. Obviously this is just one car, so for 3000 the cost per car will be lower. But like Mr Miserable mentions the Panama Canal charge is probably close to six figures for fast track and the weight etc. I would reckon, margins being what they are, they account for about $1000-1200 of the cost of the car "cost of goods sold" when you include the handling either end. So you're looking at maybe $2m+ per shipment, easily.

These are just guesswork estimates ;)
 
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