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2020 Shipping Movements

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GRAND AURORA can’t dock in Zeebrugge because of works in progress on the Vandamme lock which is not scheduled to complete until 0200 tomorrow morning. She spent 12 hours or so loitering to the west of the Isle of Wight since yesterday evening.
I can only assume she was holding there whilst enquiries were made into the viability of offloading her Southampton cargo early.
It was a sound idea in principle but the realities of Southampton’s congestion put paid to it and she is now 21 nm south of Selsey Bill ambling towards Zeebrugge.
She is not due to depart Zeebrugge until 2200 on Saturday.
She will be alongside Zeebrugge long enough to unload completely and she still has yet to appear on the Southampton port schedule.


TOSCANA continues to progress across the Bay of Biscay and is approaching the Brest peninsula.
She is ahead of schedule at the moment and unless she secures an earlier docking time I expect she will slow in the English Channel.
She is currently due to arrive in Zeebrugge very early on Friday morning.
With GRAND AURORA unloading concurrently, the Tesla agents in Zeebrugge are going to be very busy.

GLOVIS CRYSTAL will pass through the Mona Passage later today and enter the Atlantic.
She is maintaining just under 18kts which if she is able to maintain for the rest of the voyage, would see her arrive PM 4 Dec
Her current scheduled ETA for Zeebrugge is 5 Dec and Southampton probably a couple of days later.
I mentioned yesterday that I would not be surprised if she tries to get to Zeebrugge a little earlier because there is more work scheduled on the lock in Zeebrugge.

GLOVIS CRYSTAl Caribbean.png


TANNHAUSER will arrive off Suez this evening.
The weather continues to be fine.
She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Dec.

Tannhauser to Suez.png


RCC AMSTERDAM is on schedule to arrive at the entrance to the Panama Canal tomorrow evening.
She is making 16kts and is currently off the coast of Costa Rica
The weather for the next couple of days will be generally satisfactory with occasional heavy rain and the odd isolated thunderstorm.
I expect her in Zeebrugge around 9 Dec and Southampton on 12 Dec

Enter the RCC AMSTERDAM competition here.

Amst Pacif.png




GLOVIS SUN is making good progress down the Pacific coast.
There are no immediate weather concerns
She is currently about 130nm SW of San Diego.
I estimate she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Dec.

Enter what will probably be the final competition of the year, the GLOVIS SUN competition now.

Glov Sun Pacific.png


GLOVIS CAPTAIN has already finished loading at Pier 80 and is about to depart to Tianjin, China
 
I have just been chatting to a chap (who is still a regular reader of this thread despite taking delivery of his Model 3 last year!) and asked him why he doesn't enter the competitions and he said he didn't want his email address to get onto a mailing list.

Let's clear this one up here and now - you don't enter your email adddress, no personal details are asked for, it's free and there is absolutely no hidden agenda. I do show my Octopus referral link to entrants, but that is it.

Feel free to take a look:
RCC AMSTERDAM competition
GLOVIS SUN competition

It's just a bit of fun, pure and simple.
 
GRAND AURORA can’t dock in Zeebrugge because of works in progress on the Vandamme lock which is not scheduled to complete until 0200 tomorrow morning. She spent 12 hours or so loitering to the west of the Isle of Wight since yesterday evening.
I can only assume she was holding there whilst enquiries were made into the viability of offloading her Southampton cargo early.
It was a sound idea in principle but the realities of Southampton’s congestion put paid to it and she is now 21 nm south of Selsey Bill ambling towards Zeebrugge.
She is not due to depart Zeebrugge until 2200 on Saturday.
She will be alongside Zeebrugge long enough to unload completely and she still has yet to appear on the Southampton port schedule.


TOSCANA continues to progress across the Bay of Biscay and is approaching the Brest peninsula.
She is ahead of schedule at the moment and unless she secures an earlier docking time I expect she will slow in the English Channel.
She is currently due to arrive in Zeebrugge very early on Friday morning.
With GRAND AURORA unloading concurrently, the Tesla agents in Zeebrugge are going to be very busy.

GLOVIS CRYSTAL will pass through the Mona Passage later today and enter the Atlantic.
She is maintaining just under 18kts which if she is able to maintain for the rest of the voyage, would see her arrive PM 4 Dec
Her current scheduled ETA for Zeebrugge is 5 Dec and Southampton probably a couple of days later.
I mentioned yesterday that I would not be surprised if she tries to get to Zeebrugge a little earlier because there is more work scheduled on the lock in Zeebrugge.

View attachment 611703

TANNHAUSER will arrive off Suez this evening.
The weather continues to be fine.
She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Dec.

View attachment 611704

RCC AMSTERDAM is on schedule to arrive at the entrance to the Panama Canal tomorrow evening.
She is making 16kts and is currently off the coast of Costa Rica
The weather for the next couple of days will be generally satisfactory with occasional heavy rain and the odd isolated thunderstorm.
I expect her in Zeebrugge around 9 Dec and Southampton on 12 Dec

Enter the RCC AMSTERDAM competition here.

View attachment 611705



GLOVIS SUN is making good progress down the Pacific coast.
There are no immediate weather concerns
She is currently about 130nm SW of San Diego.
I estimate she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Dec.

Enter what will probably be the final competition of the year, the GLOVIS SUN competition now.

View attachment 611706

GLOVIS CAPTAIN has already finished loading at Pier 80 and is about to depart to Tianjin, China

Great work!
Thank you sooo much!!!
 
So based on this (and your recent report on the delay/extra space available at Zeebrugge), what about in the other direction - through the Chunnel from EU to UK? (the vice versa bit.)

What problem are you trying to solve here? Going by ship is the quickest/cheapest way to transport a large number of cars. Otherwise they'd use the chunnel all the time...
 
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GLOVIS CRYSTAL has entered the Atlantic through the Mona Passage.
I am however a little puzzled about her present course which is not what I was expecting to see.
She should have continued more or less on a heading of about 045 whereas she is well to the right of her expected track on a current heading of 057.
I wonder whether she is diverting in to San Juan, Puerto Rico or whether she is planning on following a rhumb line course to Zeebrugge.

UPDATE: She has maintained this course for an hour now and so I reckon that she is going to follow the rhumb line course. Unusual.
Screenshot 2020-11-25 at 18.35.08.png
 
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GRAND AURORA can’t dock in Zeebrugge because of works in progress on the Vandamme lock which is not scheduled to complete until 0200 tomorrow morning. She spent 12 hours or so loitering to the west of the Isle of Wight since yesterday evening.
I can only assume she was holding there whilst enquiries were made into the viability of offloading her Southampton cargo early.
It was a sound idea in principle but the realities of Southampton’s congestion put paid to it and she is now 21 nm south of Selsey Bill ambling towards Zeebrugge.
She is not due to depart Zeebrugge until 2200 on Saturday.
She will be alongside Zeebrugge long enough to unload completely and she still has yet to appear on the Southampton port schedule.


TOSCANA continues to progress across the Bay of Biscay and is approaching the Brest peninsula.
She is ahead of schedule at the moment and unless she secures an earlier docking time I expect she will slow in the English Channel.
She is currently due to arrive in Zeebrugge very early on Friday morning.
With GRAND AURORA unloading concurrently, the Tesla agents in Zeebrugge are going to be very busy.

GLOVIS CRYSTAL will pass through the Mona Passage later today and enter the Atlantic.
She is maintaining just under 18kts which if she is able to maintain for the rest of the voyage, would see her arrive PM 4 Dec
Her current scheduled ETA for Zeebrugge is 5 Dec and Southampton probably a couple of days later.
I mentioned yesterday that I would not be surprised if she tries to get to Zeebrugge a little earlier because there is more work scheduled on the lock in Zeebrugge.

View attachment 611703

TANNHAUSER will arrive off Suez this evening.
The weather continues to be fine.
She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Dec.

View attachment 611704

RCC AMSTERDAM is on schedule to arrive at the entrance to the Panama Canal tomorrow evening.
She is making 16kts and is currently off the coast of Costa Rica
The weather for the next couple of days will be generally satisfactory with occasional heavy rain and the odd isolated thunderstorm.
I expect her in Zeebrugge around 9 Dec and Southampton on 12 Dec

Enter the RCC AMSTERDAM competition here.

View attachment 611705



GLOVIS SUN is making good progress down the Pacific coast.
There are no immediate weather concerns
She is currently about 130nm SW of San Diego.
I estimate she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Dec.

Enter what will probably be the final competition of the year, the GLOVIS SUN competition now.

View attachment 611706

GLOVIS CAPTAIN has already finished loading at Pier 80 and is about to depart to Tianjin, China

Thank you for all the updates.
I have noticed, that you seem to have added 1-2 days to the time between a ship arrives at the Panama Canal and arrival in Zeebrugge - up to 13-14 now vs. 12 days previously (what I still use). Is it a seasonal buffer you've added due to possible storms in the Atlantic Ocean, or it's hard statistical data that tells you it takes longer than we previously assumed?
 
I think the problem to solve was the delay at Zeebrugge, but obviously if it gets there, that's solved!
I think I'm not grasping the numbers involved. I just thought, there must be at least 4000 cars on one of those things, and that would be at least 800 road transporters, if not more!

I'll stand down. Thanks for humouring me! And thanks for the comprehensive and informative updates.
 
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Thank you for all the updates.
I have noticed, that you seem to have added 1-2 days to the time between a ship arrives at the Panama Canal and arrival in Zeebrugge - up to 13-14 now vs. 12 days previously (what I still use). Is it a seasonal buffer you've added due to possible storms in the Atlantic Ocean, or it's hard statistical data that tells you it takes longer than we previously assumed?
I think my estimates have been pretty bang on so far
Which ones are causing you concern?

RCC AMSTERDAM ETA Zeebrugge 9 Dec
GLOVIS SUN ETA Zeebrugge 15 Dec
 
Do you reckon she'll put pedal to the metal/hoist the main sail then as taking the longer route (strangely) to keep up the time?
I honestly don't know. I had a look at the weather and there was nothing obvious to me which would explain her taking avoiding action.
She may have better met sources than me.
I will monitor her progress and we shall see....
 
I think my estimates have been pretty bang on so far
Which ones are causing you concern?

RCC AMSTERDAM ETA Zeebrugge 9 Dec
GLOVIS SUN ETA Zeebrugge 15 Dec

They certainly have. None of them are causing me concern. Your buffers are causing curiosity.
I'm just wondering what caused the shift from around 12 days to 13-14 days from Panama Anch Pacific to Zeebrugge.
Previously I've been "been pretty bang on" with 12 days, so it's simple tracker-to-tracker curiosity.
 
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They certainly have. None of them are causing me concern. Your buffers are causing curiosity.
I'm just wondering what caused the shift from around 12 days to 13-14 days from Panama Anch Pacific to Zeebrugge.
I haven't really noticed that to be honest
I suppose the secret to my accuracy is the fact that I use hours in the calculation.

However, SFO-BLB is 8 days, allow 1 day for canal transit and allow 12 days to Zeebrugge.
With those figures you won't be far out. 21 days door to door - always has been, I reckon.

Days can be gained or lost depending on the time of departure - this is where using hours makes it a little more accurate.
Of course it all depends on the cruising speed and also to a degree, the route.
I don't rely on apps or websites to calculate ETAs but use the Lat/Lon and great circle calcs (haversine formula).
I stuck all the formulas into a spreadsheet and it does the rest.

On another topic, have you had any indications of an East coast run this quarter? I haven't and I no longer have my trainspotter however I'm not sure that they will attempt one as I am sensing some oversupply, in the UK at least.