I would disagree with the numbers. -30 or -40 F is deep freeze and causes starting problems.
3-5 F (-15/-16 C) is a normal winter's day in snowy regions and definitely does not cause starting problems on any scale.
Anyway, onto the topic:
Personally I deduct 50% of range winter-time on Model S/X, especially if I have to drive motorways. That's about safe.
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Well, deduct at least 40% for California winter! And if on a long road trip, use the Energy app to see projected range. It seems pretty accurate as it can be based on last 30, 15, or 5 miles.
To my own chagrin, discovered Tesla Model 3's severe range limitations while driving to Los Angeles and back from San Francisco Bay area during the Christmas week. We stooped more often than normally needed to charge and once almost had a panic situation as someone accidentally left the defogger on for about 30 to 40 minutes to defog the windshield, when the air heaters were also running as it was so cold outside. We barely made it to the next Supercharger in the middle of the night, by promptly shutting of all heating and bundling up!!
One cannot drive without air heaters when outside temps are in low 40s and 50s. And the air heaters just kills the range! Plus we had 4 people in the car and the weight of the luggage may have further aggravated range problems.
It Seems the current 250 mile range for Model 3 SR+ (after the 5% recent range increase) is only for ideal conditions - single passenger with no significant luggage, driving on nearly flat terrain with pleasant outside temps (let's say mid 60s to 70s) and heaters and A/C off!! That's ridiculous, because in most of the world, not just US, you are going to need A/C or heating at various times and you are going to encounter hills. (The regenerative braking cannot possibly be giving back the same energy it takes to climb the hills).
I drove around town later in the cold later, with no heaters, and discovered the dramatic decrease in Kwh/mile with heater off.
For hassle free driving in heat or cold up to 350 miles in a Tesla, Tesla may need to increase range of SR+ to about 425 miles, to compensate for the 40% decrease in range when driving under cold (0 to 50 F) conditions. Either that or provide even faster superchargers and more of them!!
Below is an article that highlights the above range related issues, in a study by AAA. These issues need to get more publicity so we can have more informed Tesla buyers who can decide if they are willing and able to put up with such challenges or not. (To be clear, I love my Tesla despite these learning experiences. Glad to be part of the electric revolution)!
Tesla and other electric car batteries lose 40% of their range in extremely cold weather: AAA