Garlan Garner
Banned
I would pay $6000 if I could fill the tank for free - forever.
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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
We don't know that yet. As it's been discussed at length in the thread regarding Supercharger credits, all we know is a new option will be available. Nothing has been confirmed about the current option completely going away.
ummgood
Member
Sorry you're right I meant West Texas. I have been out East Texas and it is beautiful.
Nothing has been announced, but it's inevitable. Here are a few things going on:
1. Model 3 has been announced with more range in base model than the current base Model S. (210 miles for S60 and 215 for M3)
2. S60 now ships with a 75 kWh battery, which tells us they have enough margin to put it into the base model without killing their financial statements.
3. We've seen the website leak that supercharger credits are coming.
4. Locals are known for using superchargers for free charging even if it doesn't make sense based on the value of their time.
Again, you're right, nothing is announced or confirmed, but to me this change is only a matter of time. They will likely "lower" the price on all Model S' by unbundling lifetime supercharging in favor of a prepaid credit model and increase range on the Model S (at least the base model if not all) to be greater than the base Model 3.
I'm not saying that Model S range across all models should outpace the Model 3. I am, however, saying that the base Model S should be at least equal to the Model 3, and that we are likely to see that. A bump up from 60 kWh to 65 kWh upgradeable to 75 or 80 would enable this. They can easily lower the price of the S at the same time by unbundling supercharging. Imagine the headline: "Tesla lowers price and increases range on Model S, the world's fastest production car. Oh, and they are now shipping with AP 2.0 hardware."
Tesla has made it clear they plan another capital raise in Q4 - I wouldn't be surprised to see an AP v2 sneak peek, the range and pricing movements on the Model S, and probably an update on Model 3 reservations at the same time. They will need headlines to make the capital raise as easy as possible, and right after a successful/profitable Q3 will be perfect timing.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
While all of that may be correct, the option to "re-bundle" the price of lifetime Supercharging (aka, not having to pay for SC Credits) has not yet been ruled out, which is the point I'm making.
I know Supercharging credits are coming, but until we hear otherwise, I'm going to assume they are coming alongside lifetime supercharging, rather than replacing it completely.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I long have been thinking of resale value loss of original Model S and X when they unbundle SC, and crucially: lower prices to reflect 2170 production cost.
But, if they remain with the original SC cars, those will retain good value by being free-SC-for-life. Those cars will be sought after, especially if we finally get an energy crisis.
And yes, it makes sense to bump all Model S+X up when (or even before) Model 3 is launched, making the most of the 2170's. Raises the bar for the industry at the same time. 70-90 base S/X, 100-120 top spec.
But, if they remain with the original SC cars, those will retain good value by being free-SC-for-life. Those cars will be sought after, especially if we finally get an energy crisis.
And yes, it makes sense to bump all Model S+X up when (or even before) Model 3 is launched, making the most of the 2170's. Raises the bar for the industry at the same time. 70-90 base S/X, 100-120 top spec.
erthquake
Active Member
They paid for it. If next cars don't come with free power forever, they don't care. The new cars are so much better, it's good to at least have a bit of resale insurance that way.
Imagine buying a 2016 Model S in 2022. Still a great car. You drive it wel for a year, add 50,000 miles to the 120,000 it already had. Then there is an energy crisis, power doubles in cost basically overnight, as does the then currrent SC payment scheme. What happens to the 2016 Model S? It appreciates, as the power component in the price just gets more and more, and effectively a large portion of the street value. So after a year off hard driving the S, you're down 2 sets of tires, and have some cash in hand when you flip it for something more recent. Like a 200kWh Model S to charge on you self created solar energy through your 100kWh walll system.
Why 200kWh? Because it fits, and because it's now super affordable. Good to have extra storage on the car, even if it's may put back into the house or your business at night. Or even sold to the grid the next day if you end up not driving.
int32_t
Tesla Spotter
Every day it gets harder to have an energy crisis. Once grids are more renewable and more local, there will always be a little bit of power. If the grid goes down it will be little more than an inconvenience and might mean having to plug in at odd times to take advantage of wind or sun when it's there. Once we're off fossil fuels, I anticipate that energy crises will be extremely localised (like if your neighbourhood's cheapo non-Tesla-branded battery pack or inverter bites the dust
) and as a result, easier to work around and quicker to repair.
Everything you say may be true but none of it points to them getting rid of free SC. Yes, they may unbundle it as it looks like they're going to do with the M3, but I'm pretty sure they'll still have it as an option.
Tesla has several years worth of data on how people use, and don't use, SC. I'm sure with all of that data they can figure out the best way to offer it so that people that want it can get it for a reasonable price that doesn't cause Tesla to lose their shirts.
Unless it ruins the convenience of supercharging with crowding. That affects their reputation and convenience for people on long trips that planned on using them, which will impact future sales. To be sustainable as a company, they have to keep all of that in mind. It's not an issue at 99% of the locations, at least not right now, but it's clear there are locations in California where that is an issue. It also increases maintenance/upkeep costs for them (power draws from grid at peak hours, more use of the charging hardware, etc.) and requires it to be serviced more frequently.
If someone offered unlimited 87 octane fuel for a set price, how long do you think that firm would stay in business? And even if it was inconveniently placed, meant for highway travel, don't you think many would still use it more than anticipated?
I don't think "unlimited supercharging" will continue to be an option forever, though obviously their policy has not yet changed, so I could be wrong. If it does, I anticipate there will be caveats to its use. They likely knew that with Model S volumes, they could make it work, but not with the Model 3.
Don't forget Tesla sent out letters a few years ago to owners who were using Superchargers in their local area regularly. It didn't go over well for them, but the fact is that it has been on their radar. Especially with the Model 3 rollout expected to add a lot more cars to the road that will use them, their supercharging team is likely going to be strapped for time and resources and this is the easiest way to avoid being distracted in areas that shouldn't really need a lot more build out.
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If an Uber team gets a Model 3 with unlimited SC access, 3 or 4 drivers can keep the car going non-stop. And the low entry cost of the car will trigger such abuse, for sure.
They'll have to implement some sort of limit. Best would be to prepay per kWh. Discount if you buy more at a time.
Model 3 owners will be on average less rich than Model S/X. Their houses will less likely feature a law or garage. Parking may be around the corner on a public lot.
They'll have to implement some sort of limit. Best would be to prepay per kWh. Discount if you buy more at a time.
Model 3 owners will be on average less rich than Model S/X. Their houses will less likely feature a law or garage. Parking may be around the corner on a public lot.
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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
This thread about battery sizes is devolving into Supercharger credits talk.
There are multiple other threads for that.
There are multiple other threads for that.
I see your point and agree - they are related and so I think that's why it's happening. People like me, without a garage or charging at home, and without charging at work, are going to be able to make it work with a 300 mile range Tesla Model 3. This is something relatively new and partially enabled due to improvement in range. I would have been using a Nissan Leaf, but that's not possible at all unless you can count on a good charge every night.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Well, don't bother. Because neither will happen to the Generation II cars. Here, have a cookie... You'll feel better later.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
As I've mentioned a few bazillion times elsewhere already...? Making people pay for things doesn't make crowds go away. Each time I've gone to a Rolling Stones concert, or NFL game, or NBA game, there was a crowd. When a place is popular, or a route is heavily traveled, or there is a panic, or an emergency, or a holiday, or special event, there will ALWAYS be crowds. Pay per use will not change that fact.
It isn't as if lines at gas stations don't happen. They aren't even rare anymore. C'mon, MAN!
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Use does not equate to abuse. What would you do about the 'teams' of door-to-door salesmen, insurance agents, real estate agents, pizza delivery dudes, and everyone else that uses their personal vehicles for business? Besides, if you are paying attention, Tesla Motors themselves intends to make it 'worth your while' to 'hire out' your car some day. C'mon, MAN!
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