I'm sure I read somewhere earlier in the year that Tesla had all the AP1.0 features running on the new hardware. If so then they've just got to finish their testing on that (or already have) and leave AP1 customers running with that until they upgrade. Presumably it's just* the driver layer that's talking to the hardware that's different in order to run AP1 on AP2 hardware? (*I'm sure there'll a little bit more to it than I'm making out!)
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AP 2.0 at AP 1.0 price?
- Thread starter hillestadk
- Start date
So they appear to be saying that we'll be limited to 1.0 AP capabilities unless we pay $2K to upgrade to "enhanced AP". However, we won't even get 1.0 AP until "December" which likely means much later.
I'm pretty surprised that they are taking something away (1.0 AP for months) and not willing to give anything back. It's kind of amazing that they are willing to keep this AP 1.0 software limit for the 1K or so cars that will be in this state, since you can't order AP 1.0 anymore (it's Enhanced AP or nothing). I guess that is a potential $2M in revenue so it's maybe worth it for the software work.
I'm pretty surprised that they are taking something away (1.0 AP for months) and not willing to give anything back. It's kind of amazing that they are willing to keep this AP 1.0 software limit for the 1K or so cars that will be in this state, since you can't order AP 1.0 anymore (it's Enhanced AP or nothing). I guess that is a potential $2M in revenue so it's maybe worth it for the software work.
If they haven't built your car yet then you'll probably get an updated design spec. As Elon said yesterday, all newly built cars are getting the new hardware.
When I first placed my order back in April, it showed a non-refreshed Model S. A couple days later, it was updated to show the newly released refresh Model S.
I'm glad I'm not the only one that finds this very odd. I think it might be more than 1K cars since it seems a lot of people put delays on their orders (especially knowing this hardware transition was likely to happen), but certainly not more than a few thousand. What's more, it's not just the software development cost, but significant fleet time must be devoted to proving it out in the next few months, and then the cars must be supported with updates for years to come (with an ever dwindling proportion that don't pay for the upgrade to Enhanced). By next year I'd guess there will be only a few hundred vehicles running this "emulated" AP1.0.
This just does not seem like a kind of thing Musk would do, not efficient.
Since ordering a car now gets an estimated date in December I would guess that Tesla had at least an entire months of cars ordered in the queue. At ~2,300/week that is 9,200 cars. So they could easily have ~10k ordered with AP1 that will get AP2 hardware. Probably even more since some people had delayed their order up to 6 months, so someone could have ordered AP1 with a delivery date in April.
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
Just got off the phone with my Owner Advisor and he confirmed the extra $2k cost. He also mentioned this will delay my car by about a month, which is pretty disappointing (mainly because I'm stuck in a Prius until then
). I could have stayed with the AP1 option, so maybe that means AP2 hardware with software limits? Definitely some split-brain behavior between marketing and engineering...He also mentioned this will delay my car by about a month, which is pretty disappointing (mainly because I'm stuck in a Prius until then
What will delay your order? Did you actually change from AP1 to Enhance AP and pay $2k? Did that count as a change and put you at the end of the queue? The assumption has been AP1.0 vs Enhanced AP was just a SW option so weird it would change anything about the production at all.
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
I've already got a VIN, so I shouldn't be reordered. They haven't started building the car, so that wouldn't make any sense. But I don't see a lot of people *not* taking the deal for AP2. Which means, what is the factory doing during the delay? Are they backlogging a bunch of half-built cars while nVidia ships them Drive PX 2 units? I kind of doubt that. I've read elsewhere the cutoff was actually 10 days ago (10/10), so they obviously can build them. It's all quite confusing...
BTW: They aren't using Drive PX 2 units. They are using a NVidia Titan GPUs with software completely developed in-house.
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
I'm in the camp that this was a mis-speak by Elon. Titans are not cheap ($1200 each), nor are they designed to be bumped around in a moving vehicle. They're based on the Pascal architecture, which is what's going into the PX 2 units, so it would be reasonable to assume most of the same CPU chip is in there, but in a complete SoC package that the PX 2 provides. I don't really understand why they would bother with shoving an x86 computer in there, complete with the required PCI slots, when nVidia has a pre-built solution that should be cheaper.
I agree with both of you all. Missing the AP1 features for a few months and then software limiting when it is available seems like they are going out of their way to so called level the playing field. I did find it interesting that neither my Delivery Specialist nor my Owner Adviser offered the software limited AP2 option. It was only after I pressed and asked them what other options do I have, since I do not want to pay anymore than what I have already committed to pay, did they tell me that I could still get the hardware that is software limited. It was like an option they didn't want me to know about.
I'm glad they gave you the option. My sales person is out of town until Monday, and I really don't want to pay more than I've committed to either
It probably isn't that far fetched to use the existing AP1.0 neural network with the new components. They can limit the new ultrasonic sensors pretty easily. The biggest issue is the camera. But I don't see why they couldn't convert the new camera data to mimic the old. I am wondering why they wouldn't use this in the interim while they train 2.0.
Does it suck? Yep. Does it fit with Tesla philosophies? It doesn't seem much different than selling a 75 kWh car limited to 60.
Does it suck? Yep. Does it fit with Tesla philosophies? It doesn't seem much different than selling a 75 kWh car limited to 60.
Zaphod
Galaxy President (former)
I doubt someone as technical as Elon would mispeak about something like that. Just because it may be a Titan chip, doesn't mean it has to be what we consider in traditional GPUs with PCI mounting etc. I don't see why couldnt mount the chip on proprietary board of some sort. That makes far more sense.
Plus Titan chip is much faster processor than what is in the PX2. I believe it is something like 11 teraflops vs. 8.
I called the HQ center this morning (Oct 20) two times to get a sense of what's going on and then the local shop (in VA): the HQ said that people who have confirmed recent orders will be getting some kind of email soon which will give options to upgrade to Enhanced version (although they were not sure whether it will be free or for $2K). The local shop was a bit clueless...
My DS mentioned the email also and told me to ignore it since I want to keep the AP1 functionallity. Let's hope they are assessing all of the feedback and considering just making it a free upgrade to compensate for the loss of use for a few months.
I really think they should change their policies on delayed orders.
Simple -
You may delay your order. If beyond 1 month from initial proposed delivery date, your order will be cancelled. We will hold your deposit to apply to a future build. You will go through the web portal at the time and select from current options and pricing.
Reduces exposure to this sort of stuff. Then they can really do what would be fair for the folks that are really caught in the middle of a transition I mean, seriously, what's the purpose of a delayed order other than to game the system?
It would save a large amount of DS time as well as reduce the "no fair" comments.
Finally, they should match the cars that people refused delivery due to old hardware to the folks that don't want to pay more for new hardware. Win Win
BTW, they don't have to do anything fancy to make the new system look more like AP1.0. They just have to disable auto lane change, freeway interchange navigation, and smart summon. Perhaps limit the max angle the steering will automatically adjust.
Simple -
You may delay your order. If beyond 1 month from initial proposed delivery date, your order will be cancelled. We will hold your deposit to apply to a future build. You will go through the web portal at the time and select from current options and pricing.
Reduces exposure to this sort of stuff. Then they can really do what would be fair for the folks that are really caught in the middle of a transition I mean, seriously, what's the purpose of a delayed order other than to game the system?
It would save a large amount of DS time as well as reduce the "no fair" comments.
Finally, they should match the cars that people refused delivery due to old hardware to the folks that don't want to pay more for new hardware. Win Win
BTW, they don't have to do anything fancy to make the new system look more like AP1.0. They just have to disable auto lane change, freeway interchange navigation, and smart summon. Perhaps limit the max angle the steering will automatically adjust.
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I spoke to my DS this afternoon and he confirmed what is being said on here. I could opt to upgrade to AP2 for the difference of the current order price, my order is still not locked until tomorrow 11:59pm PDT, so at this point change fee does not apply to me. But I'm sure for this feature for existing orders that are well into production they aren't going to charge you a change fee for something they are giving you but you didn't even know existed until now.
So I asked my DS what will happen if I don't want AP2 but I do want to keep AP1, he said that's fine I could upgrade at a later date but I would be paying the difference of the after delivery change price which is $1000USD more. I was thinking of hedging my bets and not getting the new AP2, but it's a lot more than just software that you are getting regardless if you enable it or not, therefore I am highly doubtful that AP2 will ever be given for no additional charge to those that had originally order AP1.
I believe that, regardless if you upgrade the system or not, you will still be using all the additional sensors to gather information to design and improve Fully Autonomous driving, but it won't directly affect your personal experience with AP1. There may be a slight improvement in the resolution of what the camera will do for you with just AP1, for instance perhaps it will be able to differentiate a large white truck against a bright sky, where as before it had a hard time noticing the difference in contrast, but I believe it will react and behave with the same nuances as AP1 but with just a clearer picture of what it has to work with.
From what Tesla has posted about AP2 it looks like it will behave smarter and leverage more cameras to do so. I was watching some videos today of AP1 that speedup and changed lanes nearly driving into the car in the next lane over. The driver in the video had to take over because he didn't trust what the car was doing. From the sounds of AP2, it might drive more appropriately to match current traffic rather than drive with horse blinders on like AP1.
So back to my perspective comment. If you consider that if you never upgrade to AP2 or even had AP1, and you are getting AP2 sensors and computer, you're getting a "free" upgrade already. Tesla is not earning any of your money there but they are able to use your vehicle as a crowd sourced datapoint to make their AP system better and the FAP system a reality (hopefully). So if you have AP1 and are wishing that Tesla is going to be so kind and give you functionality of AP2 for free, I'm fairly confident they are not. There might be a "free" preview period like they did with AP1, but I haven't heard of anyone that had an order in flight just before AP1 was launched that received AP1 as a no additional cost update. The fact that Tesla is willing to put in - let's just assume $2000 in - hardware regardless of whether or not you order AP tells me that Tesla is already giving everyone something. From a business perspective they are adding to costs and not realizing any margins if users do not enable AP. With that in mind you can almost consider that of the $3000 you spend on AP1 on current orders is actually a $1000 margin for the feature on top of $2000 hardware, and let's not forget they still have to pay programmers even if it's not a physical thing you're getting, a top notch programmer/developer is not cheap. So upgrading to AP2 (from AP1) for an additional $2000 on top of your order, is really paying for the development costs of AP2 and whatever might be left over maybe can be considered profit margin.
Anyway, I work in a technical field and I understand that a sole purpose of a privately held business is to earn money and turn a profit for investors (of which I am one). I do not believe that Elon is nefarious greedy monster that turns out an inferior product. I believe he is a visionary that is willing to sacrifice some traditional business practices to produce a product that will change our perception of things and make the world a better place. Think of what he has done in the automotive industry that has the rest of them worried. He's done away with the dealer model; he's able to create interest in products that people might not get for several months and even years after placing orders for them; and he's able to give every product a personal touch by allowing the consumer to customize it to their specifications. Go to your local MBZ, BMW, Audi, Lexus dealership this weekend and see if you can get a vehicle that is exactly what you want in it and how you want it to look, probably not going to happen. Then get the price and I bet you, there's not way you're ever going to be confident that you received the fairest price for that vehicle. Elon is here giving his customers options they don't even know they want yet and not charging for them until they are ready to take advantage of them. That's insane! And that's why I've just convinced myself to upgrade to AP2 on my build. Damn it I'm spending an extra $2000 to save $1000, but if my intuition is right, I am saving money now by not waiting for a free handout that likely won't happen. Again, remember the 1month AP1 trial period - no one has ever received AP1 for free.
Sorry totally long reply, but I'd hate for most of the people on this thread to be angry that a free upgrade to AP2 never happens (or have to waste an extra $1000 post delivery for the upgrade). The fact that they are giving us AP1 still with AP2 hardware is a plus in an of itself.
So I asked my DS what will happen if I don't want AP2 but I do want to keep AP1, he said that's fine I could upgrade at a later date but I would be paying the difference of the after delivery change price which is $1000USD more. I was thinking of hedging my bets and not getting the new AP2, but it's a lot more than just software that you are getting regardless if you enable it or not, therefore I am highly doubtful that AP2 will ever be given for no additional charge to those that had originally order AP1.
I believe that, regardless if you upgrade the system or not, you will still be using all the additional sensors to gather information to design and improve Fully Autonomous driving, but it won't directly affect your personal experience with AP1. There may be a slight improvement in the resolution of what the camera will do for you with just AP1, for instance perhaps it will be able to differentiate a large white truck against a bright sky, where as before it had a hard time noticing the difference in contrast, but I believe it will react and behave with the same nuances as AP1 but with just a clearer picture of what it has to work with.
From what Tesla has posted about AP2 it looks like it will behave smarter and leverage more cameras to do so. I was watching some videos today of AP1 that speedup and changed lanes nearly driving into the car in the next lane over. The driver in the video had to take over because he didn't trust what the car was doing. From the sounds of AP2, it might drive more appropriately to match current traffic rather than drive with horse blinders on like AP1.
So back to my perspective comment. If you consider that if you never upgrade to AP2 or even had AP1, and you are getting AP2 sensors and computer, you're getting a "free" upgrade already. Tesla is not earning any of your money there but they are able to use your vehicle as a crowd sourced datapoint to make their AP system better and the FAP system a reality (hopefully). So if you have AP1 and are wishing that Tesla is going to be so kind and give you functionality of AP2 for free, I'm fairly confident they are not. There might be a "free" preview period like they did with AP1, but I haven't heard of anyone that had an order in flight just before AP1 was launched that received AP1 as a no additional cost update. The fact that Tesla is willing to put in - let's just assume $2000 in - hardware regardless of whether or not you order AP tells me that Tesla is already giving everyone something. From a business perspective they are adding to costs and not realizing any margins if users do not enable AP. With that in mind you can almost consider that of the $3000 you spend on AP1 on current orders is actually a $1000 margin for the feature on top of $2000 hardware, and let's not forget they still have to pay programmers even if it's not a physical thing you're getting, a top notch programmer/developer is not cheap. So upgrading to AP2 (from AP1) for an additional $2000 on top of your order, is really paying for the development costs of AP2 and whatever might be left over maybe can be considered profit margin.
Anyway, I work in a technical field and I understand that a sole purpose of a privately held business is to earn money and turn a profit for investors (of which I am one). I do not believe that Elon is nefarious greedy monster that turns out an inferior product. I believe he is a visionary that is willing to sacrifice some traditional business practices to produce a product that will change our perception of things and make the world a better place. Think of what he has done in the automotive industry that has the rest of them worried. He's done away with the dealer model; he's able to create interest in products that people might not get for several months and even years after placing orders for them; and he's able to give every product a personal touch by allowing the consumer to customize it to their specifications. Go to your local MBZ, BMW, Audi, Lexus dealership this weekend and see if you can get a vehicle that is exactly what you want in it and how you want it to look, probably not going to happen. Then get the price and I bet you, there's not way you're ever going to be confident that you received the fairest price for that vehicle. Elon is here giving his customers options they don't even know they want yet and not charging for them until they are ready to take advantage of them. That's insane! And that's why I've just convinced myself to upgrade to AP2 on my build. Damn it I'm spending an extra $2000 to save $1000, but if my intuition is right, I am saving money now by not waiting for a free handout that likely won't happen. Again, remember the 1month AP1 trial period - no one has ever received AP1 for free.
Sorry totally long reply, but I'd hate for most of the people on this thread to be angry that a free upgrade to AP2 never happens (or have to waste an extra $1000 post delivery for the upgrade). The fact that they are giving us AP1 still with AP2 hardware is a plus in an of itself.
