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April 30th Event SPECULATION: 100kWh Battery + 2.8s 0-60 Model S to be announced?

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As someone who is about to buy a P85D, I really am irked by this entire thing.

If 2.8 is possible with just a bigger battery, cool. But I have a feeling that it's going to require beefier wiring and all kind of other small things. It makes me really anxious to order, but I need to order soon because of the sales tax exemption.

Sucks. This should be incredibly exciting, but I keep being nagged by the thought that I "barely" miss the cutoff. 120k is a LOT of money to me, but coming from a P85, I literally can't drive anything else, and I need a car to replace my wrecked Tesla :(

There's a huge difference knowing that in a few years I can upgrade to a 100 KW battery, versus just missing out altogether. The appeal of the Model S has always been the "constant improvements" of the car that I can take advantage of, but thus far nothing has really been further from the truth.

You're ordering a car that goes 0-60 in 3.1 seconds. I have no sympathy for your issue. None! lol :)
 
As a 1 month old P85D owner if the 100/105D came out anytime this year it would really upset me. I waited a long time for the P85D thinking I was going to get the King of the run.

Your P85D still goes 0-60 0.1 seconds faster than when you first bought it. It's still an awesome car. Why would an update make you upset? What amount of time would erase any chance of you or anyone else in the world being upset? 1 year? 2 years? Let's say 2 years. What happens to the person who buys a P85D 5 months before the P100D. Shouldn't they get their 2 year buffer from an upgrade coming out to be fair? Unless Tesla pre-announces the P100D coming out then they will be just as shocked and have the same right to be upset. If Tesla does pre-announce then of course they'll kill off sales of the P85D for the 6 months or so after the announcement.

I waited 3.5 years for a P85 and 6 months later the P85+ comes out then a little later autopilot then the D. My car is still fun to drive and if I wanted the latest and greatest then I would upgrade. It's not a problem for Tesla they are improving the product so quickly but a good thing. Like buying a computer or iPhone the 'latest and greatest' isn't the greatest for long. This is not your traditional car company and not the traditional model year roll out.
 
Unless Tesla pre-announces the P100D coming out then they will be just as shocked and have the same right to be upset. If Tesla does pre-announce then of course they'll kill off sales of the P85D for the 6 months or so after the announcement.


Well, Telsa could pre-announce the 100+ variant & it's pricing without killing sales. The only way to do this and avoid the Osborne Effect would be pricing the 100 above the existing 85[D], and leaving the 85[D] available even after the 100+ model is released.
 
April 30th Event SPECULATION: 100kWh Battery + 2.8s 0-60 Model S to be announ...

Well, Telsa could pre-announce the 100+ variant & it's pricing without killing sales. The only way to do this and avoid the Osborne Effect would be pricing the 100 above the existing 85[D], and leaving the 85[D] available even after the 100+ model is released.

Agreed. My guess is that Tesla will roll things out similar to Apple and the iPhone where the product gets better but the price point for the good, better, best product line remains roughly the same. I guess the announcement window could still be an issue though as who would want a P85D when they could wait X months and get the P100D for same price.
 
Well, Telsa could pre-announce the 100+ variant & it's pricing without killing sales. The only way to do this and avoid the Osborne Effect would be pricing the 100 above the existing 85[D], and leaving the 85[D] available even after the 100+ model is released.
Has Tesla ever pre-announced anything after the Model S actually went into production? I will continue to state that I think everyone looking at why they would or wouldn't introduce a new battery based on what affect it would have on 85 sales, 85D sales, or P85D sales is looking at this from the wrong side. The one model we know is coming with absolute certainty is the model X. So I will say, again, that the question is what size battery will most likely be coming on the high-end Model X? Whatever that battery is will most certainly become the new standard for the Model S, and it will be because it's what's needed for the X, not because of how it will make any current Model S owners, P85D or not, feel.
 
Using an NEC-style 25% margin gives me a constant current draw of about 19A possible before popping fuses. That'd be about 6C, or about 485kW nominal for an 85kWh pack.

Wouldn't 6C for a 85kWh pack be 510kW? (85 x 6 = 510 )

I was using the 19A per cell number for the 485kW number.

19A * 3.6V * 7104 cells = 485913.6W. Using Tesla's rating of 85,000Wh would be 11.965 Wh per cell. 11.965Wh / 3.6V nominal = 3,323.6mAh cells. Comes to ~5.72C. Factor in the huge voltage drop that will happen at that load and the amperage will be what I said, about 6C.
 
Well, Telsa could pre-announce the 100+ variant & it's pricing without killing sales. The only way to do this and avoid the Osborne Effect would be pricing the 100 above the existing 85[D], and leaving the 85[D] available even after the 100+ model is released.

There's no way.

The 85D represents a top-of-the-line product. Pre-announcing a higher top-of-the-line will basically cause all 85D sales in China to be cancelled before Google can even index the tweet.


There's a lot of buyers that care more about having the best car, rather than having a great car.
 
Elon said there would be no significant changes to the Model S hardware for a year... last October. The 70D is pretty darn close to a significant change, but it's using the same ol' batteries, just more of them now that Panasonic's production has ramped up. More of these batteries will not fit into the battery case, so 85KWh is it, until new chemistry is debuted. That will be debuted for the Model X.

The only way they have figured out a way to further improve the acceleration will be to change the existing car.

I suggest there are two outcomes to this - new wiring from the battery to the invertor, which is a retrofittable change if you want it (and not a significant change), OR new software. One wonders why they would go two steps (from 3.2 to 3.1 and then from 3.1 to 2.8) but I guess they had two improvements to try and weren't sure the 2nd one was going to be OK?

This could easily be debuted before April 30th. The two events should not be confused.
 
So............ anyone selling their P85D after owning it for 5 months? If so, how much will you sell it for?

I remember when the P85D was announced, 1-2 year old P85s were selling at about $85K-95K price range.

I don't mind buying a used P85D... :wink::wink::wink:
 
How about home Solar Panel announcement?
That would be more along SolarCity's lines I think ... btw I have been wondering a bit that the home battery is being offered with a Tesla badge and not a SolarCity badge as it would fit in much better with the kind of products SC offers. Tesal has built quite bit of street cred over the past few years with battery powered products, maybe they want to cash in on that.
 
Anything remotely as big as a new 100 KWh battery would be the subject of its own tweets and press conference, not slipped in before this one or bundled with the expected home storage solution. They had a five day tease and huge press conference to announce a stupid navigation upgrade, no way they just slide some major battery or performance upgrade out there as a "warm up" no matter what goofy tweet comes from Elon.
 
I would have agreed with you up until I saw how the 70D was dropped on the market unexpectedly. It seems Tesla's way of handling a battery change/upgrade is to just announce it unexpectedly to ensure people don't hold off on orders up into the event launch. Why did the 70D not have its own tweets or special event/press conference? I can see the navigation tease being great for marketing and not affecting existing orders, but dropping a product upgrade would likely be handled the way the 70D was.

Anything remotely as big as a new 100 KWh battery would be the subject of its own tweets and press conference, not slipped in before this one or bundled with the expected home storage solution. They had a five day tease and huge press conference to announce a stupid navigation upgrade, no way they just slide some major battery or performance upgrade out there as a "warm up" no matter what goofy tweet comes from Elon.
 
I would have agreed with you up until I saw how the 70D was dropped on the market unexpectedly. It seems Tesla's way of handling a battery change/upgrade is to just announce it unexpectedly to ensure people don't hold off on orders up into the event launch. Why did the 70D not have its own tweets or special event/press conference? I can see the navigation tease being great for marketing and not affecting existing orders, but dropping a product upgrade would likely be handled the way the 70D was.

Frankly, the 70D is a very minor update compared to what a 100-105kWH would be. They were updating the low end of the line. Let me put it a different way: what benefit does Tesla get going to 100 soon? More demand? They can't meet what they have. Better manufacturing synergy? Nope, they just have to use more cells per car now and maybe cells that are in shorter supply due to new chemistry.

So please explain the sense of this. The 70D adds a few cells, perhaps settles the line on a single cell type and simplifies the line by making most cars AWD.