and don't forget the ludicrous upgrade for p85ds.
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Autopilot 2.0
- Thread starter calisnow
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- Autopilot Tesla Inc.
and don't forget the ludicrous upgrade for p85ds.
Doh! And it's the one upgrade that I actually had done. Can't believe I left that off the list.
benemac
Member
I'm not sure how many times you can but when I built the car, I could originally set it for October. I'm pretty sure you can push it back further as I know someone who did this twice. I don't think he paid a fee. Maybe someone who's done this can respond better.
On the positive side, you might get some upgrades for free if they are included in base config, even if the price goes up.
On the negative side, you might start getting stuck with change fees if new options come available that you want that are t included in base.
Personally, just order when your ready to commit.
On the negative side, you might start getting stuck with change fees if new options come available that you want that are t included in base.
Personally, just order when your ready to commit.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I talked to the Tesla test drive pilot - and asked..."can I put in for a Dec delivery, and accelerate if there is breaking news. He said, once I configure, I'm locked in on items (else $500 fee), but i can always change delivery date. accelerate or delay. Did not inquire how many times before they get tired of it - but you get (at least) one delivery date change with no fee
You do have to make sure you stay on top of it and tell them you want to delay before your car enters production - and they are not always good about communicating when it enters. If they fail to notify you, and you bumble along and then one day realize you need to delay - they can get mighty cranky. Ask me how I know...
How do you know?
Just joking. Yeah, I was told the max they can push out a delivery is six months, but that once we get closer to the end of that six months they'll just push it out further if that's what I want. So for an estimated delivery date of December, you should be contacting them in mid to late September to be in the safe side. I'm pushing mine to March.
benemac
Member
Thanks for that information. It helps.
Do you know if you lock in, and let's say a seat option you've been hoping for becomes available which increases the cost of your car, does the $500 chg fee still apply?
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
what I was told YESTERDAY was. Locked in meant locked in. ONLY delivery date could be shifted.
I was told something completely different. If new options that weren't available at the time of your order are announced, they can waive the change fee. You'd just add the cost of the new option to your order. I've also read of other forum members getting the $500 change fee waived. I think the fee really is to prevent people from flip flopping between colors or existing options. Makes it difficult for procurement purposes to estimate demand.
Not really. Google is trying that approach but it involves having a totally accurate database. What happens the day a through street gets converted to a 4 way stop? MobilEye is trying a more "human" approach of doing recognition.
Stopping for lights and signs makes me more nervous than the present system,.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
RVG goes out the window when you start producing Model 3 or else people can buy cars at half price and Tesla is stuck buying back Model S/X and selling them as CPO at a loss.
They can reinstate RVG again after the Model 3 caused fluctuation in prices when everything stabilizes to a new level but they need a RVG free period around the release to give them time to adjust the pricing.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Ironically a totaled vehicle lets Tesla/Elon off the hook for that RVG. Every crashed Tesla is one less car they have to hold back money for the residual value guarantee.
I have to wonder what percentage of the $12M was based on cars that were totaled vs cars that were traded in vs cars that were kept but passed the 3 year mark (actually 39 months is the final cutoff).
Give up the hope for a retrofit. Tesla will continue adding sensors over time as it needs to. Model 3 will have a far more advanced Autopilot suite than any currently shipping Model S or Model X, and at half the price. That's just how technology rolls. This is an iPad on wheels, so we need to get used to much more frequent and dramatic update cycles.
The key in above is "can" & not "required". I'm not even sure they are required to deliver the current car being produced.
If there are significant changes, they could go ahead and build the car you ordered and put it in a back room waiting for your delivery date.
Right. Definitely is up to the good graces of your delivery specialist and tesla corporate policy. The only car they're legally obligated to deliver is the car and all of the options on your purchase agreement.
Forgot to mention - in addition to the other public hints I already enumerated in answering your question on an earlier post, another reason I believe Autopilot 2.0 will be upon us by the end of this year is that back in December 2015 Elon Musk gave an interview to Fortune, in which he was quoted that he believes Tesla will have an autonomous car in two years. By itself this quote doesn't seem to add up to AP 2.0 hardware showing up in the Model S by the end of 2016 - but if you add this to the other bullet point items I think it is another piece of supporting evidence.
In December 2015, two years away would be December 2017. End of 2017 is when Musk has promised the first Model 3 deliveries. Model 3 Reveal Part II is coming at end of 2016 and will most likely reveal a Level 4 self driving car if you believe Musk's December Fortune quote:
"Musk wouldn’t reveal details about the next generation of autopilot. That, he explains, “would be a major announcement.” But he did tell Fortune where Tesla will end up. "We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” That doesn’t mean city streets will be overflowing with driverless Tesla vehicles by 2018 (coincidentally, the company’s Model 3 should be on roads by then). Musk expects regulators will lag behind the technology. He predicts it will take an additional year for regulators to determine that it’s safe and to go through an approval process. In some jurisdictions, it may take five years or more, he says. Musk adds an important caveat—one that raises the standard of what it means to achieve full autonomy. “When I say level 4, I mean level 4 autonomy with the probability of an accident is less than that of person,” he says.
So I'm guessing Level 4 hardware baked into Model S/X by end of 2016 to avoid the Osborne effect and also to build a year of fleet training data (perhaps running in the background in simulation mode) before the Model III begins deliveries. If Musk reveals only a slightly more advanced intermediate Autopilot for Model III in the "reveal part II" he will Osborne the Model III itself as soon as someone asks him "Well, you said Level 4 autonomy by the end of 2017" if his reply is "Yeah, well, the first Model III's will only have a slightly more advanced Autopilot - we will ship Level 4 hardware in the Model S at the end of 2017 but Model III will have to wait a while longer."
That response wouldn't be feasible - he would then Osborne the Model III. The only way all these hints fit together and do not Osborne Tesla in one way or another is if Model III ships with Level 4 hardware from the beginning - which would seem to require Model S getting the hardware at the same time as Model III Reveal Part II at the end of this year.
Also, if Model S/X get Level 4 hardware at the end of 2016 it will only build even more excitement for Model III - it's the best of both worlds for Tesla. Gooses existing car sales and builds even more pre-orders for the Model III.
Finally, if the Gigafactory really reduces Tesla's battery costs by 30% and starts building the Model S/X battery packs this summer - well there's your additional margin to allow Tesla to pay for shoving more cameras, computers and sensors into the Model S this coming December.
How this dovetails with a reported simple two-camera upgrade seen running around? I dunno. Maybe we're going to get a simple "1.5" patch fix retrofit to add reliable forward stopped-object detection to existing Autopilot 1.0 cars, but the "full enchilada" Level 4 capable hardware will show up in December.
Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years
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Of course, you could respond that what Musk meant is that in two years Tesla will begin shipping Level 4 autonomous capable hardware - which really is like an "Autopilot 3.0" - but that the intermediate step will be a 2.0 system.
Personally my gut says Musk is gonna shoot the moon on this despite the fatality and go straight to a car with Level 4 capable hardware by the end of 2016. I think it's up his sleeve and in store for us because he has said M3 Reveal Part II is going to blow us away and that the center mount screen will make more sense. The screen makes sense if you don't have to drive yourself most of the time, so looking off to the right isn't really a PIA since you don't do it frequently. I don't think the center-mount screen means merely that we have a HUD in store - that wouldn't blow anybody away or showcase "next generation" technology that JB has hinted at. :crosses fingers:
Personally my gut says Musk is gonna shoot the moon on this despite the fatality and go straight to a car with Level 4 capable hardware by the end of 2016. I think it's up his sleeve and in store for us because he has said M3 Reveal Part II is going to blow us away and that the center mount screen will make more sense. The screen makes sense if you don't have to drive yourself most of the time, so looking off to the right isn't really a PIA since you don't do it frequently. I don't think the center-mount screen means merely that we have a HUD in store - that wouldn't blow anybody away or showcase "next generation" technology that JB has hinted at. :crosses fingers:
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Well thought out, well articulated.
But - this assumes that Musk has control of the magic. That he has a working chip/camera in his pocket and is just deploying it on his schedule. I fear that Mobileye - good as they are- have not yet done the deed and Musk can't do anything about it. Hopes, Plans, Expectations --all feed your scenario, but sometimes reality does not fit plans.
Hope I'm wrong and you are right, but......
Thanks
Well, Mobileye was on record in 2015 publicly stating that the EyeQ3 currently interpreting the scene for our single camera Autopilot is capable of running fully autonomous cars and that "it is all software development" after that. They said this would be accomplished via a networked system running multiple connected EyeQ3's interpreting data from multiple cameras - that the EyeQ3 was architected from the beginning to be capable of this.They also have insisted publicly, more than once, that an 8 camera system is coming to market in 2016 by an OEM they refuse to publicly name - however they bumped it back to 2017 in their most recent public statement.
Finally, they've stated that the EyeQ4 coming to market in 2018 will be capable of operating all these cameras on a single chip.
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