Autopilot lane keeping still not available over 6 months after delivery

[stopcrazypp]

They have been 1-2 months away from releasing these features for about the last 6 months (and that's generous).

No they haven't. The only time they gave a calculable estimate for time was in late March, saying about three months (meaning late June, early July). They are a little late, but it's finally going to be in Beta next week. Before that, we only got "several months" mentioned during the October 2014 announcement (which can mean any amount of time, typically less than 1 year), but they never gave a date that indicated 1-2 months away (until now).

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@Todd, don't you think in a couple of years, you'll have EVs from Merc/BMW that will have plush interiors and good tech?

Mercedes and BMW have shown that they want to push PHEVs mainly. Even the rumored i5 is rumored to be a PHEV. I think we will see an EV comparable with the Model S from Porsche first before those two, and Porsche will be at a much higher price range.

 

[Soolim]

Mercedes and BMW are not going to come out with a EV that truly competes with Tesla because that would canabalize their very profitable high end lines. They and their dealers have too much invested ICE to let that happen.

Sorry, not sure of your product research and marketing strategy. Great company will position products to adopt to the market. If EV is the future, MB and BMW will be in. They will position and price the product to satisfy the market segment, so as not to lose their company car market share, i.e. allow those who want high end EV but otherwise love MB to have their choice at the right price. Having EV within their product mix does not preclude them from selling using their normal channel.

It is better that MB or BMW cannibalize their own than to let competitors have it. Make sense?

From another point of view, Tesla is not oppose to helping MB at the right price. Tesla will continue to make lots of money just on the Giga-factory alone.

 

[wk057]

So has anyone else noticed the three or four different release timelines/estimates/implications given over the last ~week?

First a tweet makes it sound like they're pretty much done. (Couple of weeks optimistically... Mid August?)
Shareholder letter says "later this year" and in the same letter something about Q3'15. (Late September?)
Shareholder conference call Elon says 15th for beta, release 1-2 months after. (Mid September to Mid October?)
The spam email Elon wants everyone to send out says "Coming in a few weeks." (End of August?)

So, as of now basically have timelines ranging from next week to the end of September.

Serious Tesla, some clarity would be great.

 

[Andyw2100]

So has anyone else noticed the three or four different release timelines/estimates/implications given over the last ~week?

First a tweet makes it sound like they're pretty much done. (Couple of weeks optimistically... Mid August?)
Shareholder letter says "later this year" and in the same letter something about Q3'15. (Late September?)
Shareholder conference call Elon says 15th for beta, release 1-2 months after. (Mid September to Mid October?)
The spam email Elon wants everyone to send out says "Coming in a few weeks." (End of August?)

So, as of now basically have timelines ranging from next week to the end of September.

Serious Tesla, some clarity would be great.

If we assume that "a few", like "several" are words that do not mean to Musk what they do to most of us, then there is nothing inconsistent with "a few (Musk) weeks" and mid September to mid October (or, realistically mid November, mid December... )

 

[Soolim]

So has anyone else noticed the three or four different release timelines/estimates/implications given over the last ~week?

First a tweet makes it sound like they're pretty much done. (Couple of weeks optimistically... Mid August?)
Shareholder letter says "later this year" and in the same letter something about Q3'15. (Late September?)
Shareholder conference call Elon says 15th for beta, release 1-2 months after. (Mid September to Mid October?)
The spam email Elon wants everyone to send out says "Coming in a few weeks." (End of August?)

So, as of now basically have timelines ranging from next week to the end of September.

Serious Tesla, some clarity would be great.

And you missed the biggest caveat, 1 to 2 months depending on what the early adopters (beta tester) report back. So my plead to the EAs, please say "It is ALL GOOD, lets go!" Drive to my home safely and self park inside the garage. :wink:

 

[Stoneymonster]

Mercedes and BMW are not going to come out with a EV that truly competes with Tesla because that would canabalize their very profitable high end lines. They and their dealers have too much invested ICE to let that happen. If someone prefers the German tech or interiors of their ICE cars that's ok. Not every car can have everything that everyone wants. Tesla should focus on its strengths and not try to compete on their turf. There are more than 15,000,000 cars sold in the U.S. each year. For Tesla to get up to 500,000 is only 3% market share. Certainly there are 3% of car buyers who would want what Tesla will offer, which will be the best EV technology and supercharging network.

I also wonder must where these competitors are going to get their batteries from. The numbers don't add up.

 

[Soolim]

I also wonder must where these competitors are going to get their batteries from. The numbers don't add up.

From Tesla Giga-Factory. Do you think Tesla will not sell to other car manufacturer the batteries? EM's goal is to change the car technology for the betterment of humanity. Tesla open its patent to encourage others to follow. If there is money to be made while selling batteries and having cleaner air, why not? Tesla is already helping MB in its B series EV. Once Giga-Factory is fully operational, there will be a short term abundance of batteries. It is very likely that the Giga-Factory could be a profit center on its own, and with lesser headache than car manufacturing (i.e. dealing with thousands of parts suppliers and tens of thousands of retail customers).

 

[andrewket]

Tesla had a video too. Let's see what happens when people use it in real life.

It looks impressive. Now, make it a BEV with similar range to an 85, and deploy a high speed DC charging network that is free for life and we'll talk.

 

[Stoneymonster]

From Tesla Giga-Factory. Do you think Tesla will not sell to other car manufacturer the batteries? EM's goal is to change the car technology for the betterment of humanity. Tesla open its patent to encourage others to follow. If there is money to be made while selling batteries and having cleaner air, why not? Tesla is already helping MB in its B series EV. Once Giga-Factory is fully operational, there will be a short term abundance of batteries. It is very likely that the Giga-Factory could be a profit center on its own, and with lesser headache than car manufacturing (i.e. dealing with thousands of parts suppliers and tens of thousands of retail customers).

Tesla needs nearly all of the planned output for the model 3 volumes.

 

[Soolim]

It looks impressive. Now, make it a BEV with similar range to an 85, and deploy a high speed DC charging network that is free for life and we'll talk.

As an armchair speculator, I speculate that model 3 supercharger will not be free for life charging. When it comes to mass market product pricing, every cents count. It will not be difficult for Tesla to implement supercharging at cost to new models. I can imagine, at this time, we the early adopters are already partly contributing to the cost of supercharging infrastructure. Tesla realized supercharging is a must, and I praise them for the guts, foresight and leadership. Tesla will continue to lead in the BEV and others will follow. However Tesla must overcome some challenges (we all know what they are) so that it can achieve the 500,000 units sales goal.

 

[nleggatt]

Here is why auto pilot isn't ready (don't let the car decide where to go and then ignore it) in the picture I'm going from Hope to kamloops

Good thing I didn't follow it

 

[Soolim]

Tesla needs nearly all of the planned output for the model 3 volumes.

You realise that model 3 volume don't happen overnight. That Tesla bought extra land surrounding the Giga-Factory for future expansion. That if there is money to be made, Tesla could do it if they want to. Who is to say that Tesla would not build another Giga-Factory in EU?

EM is a visionary and ambitious entrepreneur. He will make things happen given the time, sometimes not to our liking on punctuality. :wink:

 

[nleggatt]

Just so it's clear. I'm in hope, it's sending me back to Burlington, then back to hope then to kamloops

 

[Stoneymonster]

You realise that model 3 volume don't happen overnight. That Tesla bought extra land surrounding the Giga-Factory for future expansion. That if there is money to be made, Tesla could do it if they want to. Who is to say that Tesla would not build another Giga-Factory in EU?

EM is a visionary and ambitious entrepreneur. He will make things happen given the time, sometimes not to our liking on punctuality. :wink:

I'm saying they are many years away from GF volumes to support themselves and other manufacturers of BEVs both. So if people are expecting BMW/Merc BEVs with GF produced batteries to make volume, they have a long wait.

 

[breser]

Here is why auto pilot isn't ready (don't let the car decide where to go and then ignore it) in the picture I'm going from Hope to kamloops

I seriously doubt that Autopilot is going to be able to follow the navigation route. It's just going to follow the road you're on. You get to decide to follow navigation or not.

 

[Soolim]

I'm saying they are many years away from GF volumes to support themselves and other manufacturers of BEVs both. So if people are expecting BMW/Merc BEVs with GF produced batteries to make volume, they have a long wait.

I understand your point. Let us agree that both of us don't have insider information to discuss the timeline of Tesla, MB and BMW. Patience is a necessary virtue in order to enjoy high-end EV, as proven by Tesla. Something to consider, Panasonic is a major supplier of battery to Tesla, plus many others suppliers. So if Tesla is producing 55,000 car in a year, could those relieve battery factory capacity (not necessary exact model) support other BEV manufacturer, beginning in 2017 or 2018? Unlike Tesla, MB and BMW have their main business in ICE going, so they have lesser danger of collapse in the near term. But I don't think they are sleeping on their desk with regards to BEV given the success of Tesla. Secrecy and timeliness in product announcement is a key business strategy.

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I seriously doubt that Autopilot is going to be able to follow the navigation route. It's just going to follow the road you're on. You get to decide to follow navigation or not.

I don't think that AutoPilot lane keeping follows the route suggested by Tesla navigation. AP simply assist the driver in steering, route decision is still ours to make, correct? I do agree that Tesla navigation is lacking in general as compared to others.

 

[3s-a-charm]

Here is why auto pilot isn't ready (don't let the car decide where to go and then ignore it) in the picture I'm going from Hope to kamloops View attachment 89857

Good thing I didn't follow it

As stated by others the Nav and Autopilot are mutually exclusive.

I did, however, just experience a similar Nav anomaly on the same highway yesterday. We charged in Golden heading West towards Kelowna and Summerland - the Tesla Nav insisted on charging in Revelstoke (necessary) AND Kamloops (not at all necessary) which adds about 1 hour to the trip (very odd way to route). So I thought that perhaps as gpetti had pointed out perhaps it was choosing the overall fastest route including charging. So in Rvelstoke I cancelled the nav, charged to 100% and plugged in Summerland which is 250km away (well within the 400km range) and it STILL insisted I go the long way through Kamloops! I was waiting for the pop-up, "Tesla navigation sponsored by the Kamloops tourism board" notice. Strange. I had to select an option to "remove all Charging options" (or something similar) and it calculated my route just fine. Did this have something to do with Tesla being more concerned about my return trip??

 

[TexasEV]

Sorry, not sure of your product research and marketing strategy. Great company will position products to adopt to the market. If EV is the future, MB and BMW will be in. They will position and price the product to satisfy the market segment, so as not to lose their company car market share, i.e. allow those who want high end EV but otherwise love MB to have their choice at the right price. Having EV within their product mix does not preclude them from selling using their normal channel.

It is better that MB or BMW cannibalize their own than to let competitors have it. Make sense?

From another point of view, Tesla is not oppose to helping MB at the right price. Tesla will continue to make lots of money just on the Giga-factory alone.

I don't doubt MB and BMW will make a EV for those customers who really want an EV, but it's not going to be competitive with Tesla. They have too much invested in ICE to make it too good such that mainstream luxury ICE buyers prefer it to their ICE lineup. I think preserving the predominance of ICE will be more important to them than making a great EV. Tesla gains by speeding the transition to EV. The legacy companies don't.

 

[breser]

I don't doubt MB and BMW will make a EV for those customers who really want an EV, but it's not going to be competitive with Tesla. They have too much invested in ICE to make it too good such that mainstream luxury ICE buyers prefer it to their ICE lineup. I think preserving the predominance of ICE will be more important to them than making a great EV. Tesla gains by speeding the transition to EV. The legacy companies don't.

I wonder how you make a statement like this with a straight face. Or have you forgotten that Tesla wouldn't exist if not for Mercedes? Mercedes made an investment at a critical time in Tesla that allowed them to stay in business until the US Government loan was available. Mercedes is selling a vehicle with a Tesla power train. They also have a high end internally developed electric vehicle with independent motors for each wheel. If Mercedes wants to delay EV development and adoption they sure aren't acting like it.

On the BMW front they've said that they expect most of their vehicles will be electric in the near future. They have the i3 right now and the i8 (which is really more of a hybrid). Your argument is a little more reasonable in this case but again I don't think that BMW is showing that they want to make an effort to delay EVs.

Now if you'd said Toyota, Hyundai, et al I'd agree. But you didn't and chose to pick on the two luxury brands that actually are working on EVs.

 

[Todd Burch]

@Todd, don't you think in a couple of years, you'll have EVs from Merc/BMW that will have plush interiors and good tech?

At a price range similar to a Tesla or less, with similar range and performance, and with a large infrastructure of fast chargers? No, I don't.

Where's their battery factory? Have any of them demonstrated a battery pack using low cost cells like Tesla uses? Have they started building out a fast charging infrastructure that's at least 120 kW? Do they have their own pack degredation data? Has BMW or Merc demonstrated that they can build a similarly priced vehicle with similar range and performance? The answer to most if not all of these questions is no. it's going to take them more than a few years to catch up with all that.

Which would you rather have, some extra wood grain on the inside of the car or a nationwide fast charging network? I know which one I'd pick.