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breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
This in my opinion is a fair assessment of the reason you don't see MB and BMW competing with Tesla directly yet. They simply aren't positioned to do it. I don't think it's because they don't want to do it. But I also think they aren't pushing too fast into the market. Let Tesla do the hard work of convincing people that EVs are viable.
Soolim
Member
I applaud EM for efforts to transform car technology. MB/BMW may or may not have the same level of zealousness in saving humanity. But they will go where their target market, profit, and company mission is. MB is not blind to the EV market evolution. I will gladly pay for the luxury of MB if they have the same range in their BEV in the future. 2.8 seconds acceleration is not my cup of tea. Anything around 5 seconds is adequate for me.
The next challenge (bigger than the EV production itself) is how would Tesla scale up the service center when model 3 comes and demand for service of existing MS ramps up in unison. Service center work load back log is already more than one month for regular service in many metropolitan areas. That is what I am scared of as a current owner.
I strongly agree with that point of view. And I am confident that BMW and Mercedes and Porsche and Audi are at least 4 years away from producing a BEV that is competitive with the Model S. Could they build one? Yes. Will they? No, because it would decimate their ICE sales and they lack the vision to see past that obstacle. They also are unwilling to invest in the needed battery manufacturing capability and the high speed charging network necessary to compete with Tesla. They are the walking dead but it will be several years before they realize that, and by then Tesla mist be that much farther ahead of them.
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
My daily commute alone is more than the the i3's range under ideal conditions. Renting an X5 from a dealer on a daily basis doesn't sound like a solution to me. Sounds like a PITA.
@Todd, yep thats why the dealer gives you an X5 for long distance travel. (Not sure if you incorrectly fast read my previous comment?)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
They are referring to a program where BMW loans an i3 owner an ICE X5 (SUV) for long distance travel. I've heard of the program but I'm not sure it's even been launched in the US.
Here's an old article on it:
BMW i3 owners will get to use BMW X5 SUVs for longer trips
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Corrected my post above, but the program illustrates my point...The i3 is realistically what, about 60 miles of real-world range, not including degredation? That's hardly a long trip at all. Just a few errands can exceed that for many people.
i3's range is more like 90 miles, and it does come in a range extender version too. And in 2 years it would be reasonable to expect 150 mile BEV's from more than one manufacturer.
While Tesla might be at 300 mile range by then, I would think 150 miles is more than enough for most usual driving.
For long distance, probably not. But, there are more than one ways to solve the long distance issue, supercharging isn't the only solution.
While Tesla might be at 300 mile range by then, I would think 150 miles is more than enough for most usual driving.
For long distance, probably not. But, there are more than one ways to solve the long distance issue, supercharging isn't the only solution.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I bet in the winter it's not 90 miles...but regardless, IMHO a loaner vehicle from a dealer is not a solution. Well it is, but I don't think it's a very attractive one. So every time I want to drive 90+ miles I have to pay a dealer some nominal fee, coordinate with them to schedule a pickup, drive to the dealer (which in itself may not be conveniently located), leave my car there, and pay for gas on my trip? If they bring the car to you that would be only slightly better. No thanks. That sounds like a solution for a company that's not willing to go all in.
But anyway, I think this thread had something to do with autopilot and some horse that's been beaten to death.
But anyway, I think this thread had something to do with autopilot and some horse that's been beaten to death.
I didn't say Mercedes was trying to delay EVs in general (or Tesla). I said they would delay their own EVs except as a niche product in order to maintain their much larger legacy ICE business. Just as ecarfan said in a nearby post (1484).
Mercedes is doing just barely enough to allow them to say that they have an EV to sell. Baby steps.
BMW has announced that their product line will transition to hybrids, not BEVs. So they are preserving their ICE investment while making their cars more complex and costly to manufacture.
http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2015/06/by-2020-all-bmws-will-be-awd-range.html
"The final concept — demonstrated in Nov 2014 with a 500 kw AWD 5-series GT xDrive plug-in hybrid — is similar in basic principle to the series hybrid system that propels the Chevrolet Volt."
That is a big step...BACKWARDS.
Sogorman
Member
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Don't forget that Toyota made an investment in Tesla and also contracted a Tesla vehicle, but they are the most negative on EVs out of all the major automakers. Obviously Mercedes is not on the same level as Toyota, but it's not a stretch to say they still hugely prioritize ICE and PHEVs over BEVs. BMW is far better, but they are still making at short range EV right now (it remains to be seen if the rumors on the i5 being a PHEV is true).
So has anyone else noticed the three or four different release timelines/estimates/implications given over the last ~week?
First a tweet makes it sound like they're pretty much done. (Couple of weeks optimistically... Mid August?)
Shareholder letter says "later this year" and in the same letter something about Q3'15. (Late September?)
Shareholder conference call Elon says 15th for beta, release 1-2 months after. (Mid September to Mid October?)
The spam email Elon wants everyone to send out says "Coming in a few weeks." (End of August?)
So, as of now basically have timelines ranging from next week to the end of September.
Serious Tesla, some clarity would be great.
I think the first tweet that said autopilot was almost ready always meant "almost ready to be released to beta" which puts the first three all in a comparable timeframe. The email is bogus, much like misleading language on the website. It probably comes from poor internal communication where someone in marketing confused the "released to beta" with "released to production." We know they are terrible at that kind of internal communication because of the random things you get told by local staff that don't match from one location to another. For instance it is three weeks since a major press conference to announce ludicrous mode and the upgrade to the existing P85D fleet and no one seems to have yet been told when they will actually have the parts to perform the upgrade.
Me too, sigh. Yet more over-promising. And then the silly snake charger video/tweet. Please, get whatever scarce resources the company can muster working on the things you have already sold. The faster Tesla earns its deferred revenues the better. The need to offer $2000 discounts (nee referrals) suggests perhaps fewer and fewer are being taken in by the D-event/misleading website marketing strategy ... and I for one, would have a hard time making a good faith referral today without A LOT of disclaiming of Tesla marketing propaganda ... "well, yes, you might actually get that some day ...."
Right. This.
I mean, are there really a lot (or any?) people that are going to buy a BMW 7 series over the Model S because it has more advanced self-steering? Are people really like "well, these cars are basically equivalent in every other respect, but the BMW wins because it's more high tech?"
Conversely, are there BMW intenders out there who are otherwise sold on the Model S in every respect but are holding off because the BMW has air conditioned seats?
I mean, I doubt it. And I suppose if there are then the Tesla is a hell of a lot closer to mainstream acceptance than I think it is.
But if these things aren't Tesla's competitive differentiators (and they are so, so not), they should focus their time and money on the things that are--like the EV drivetrain, improving battery capacity, and building out the Supercharger network.
And in fairness to Tesla, maybe they are, which is why autopilot is still vapor ware at this point. But it would be nice if Tesla hadn't promised this feature without being able to deliver.
Don't despair. It's thanks to all your valiant efforts that we will likely see Autopilot in September, October or certainly definitely most undoubtedly and assuredly by November at the latest! :tongue:
I'd like to think going forward they will promise what they plan to imminently release but they did announce the Ludicrous update and it seems that has yet to roll out...
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