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Battery cost MY

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Tesla's guidance on investor discussions has generally been that about a quarter of the cost of the car goes into the battery pack. Which suggests that they could build you a new pack for ~$15k with profit margin included. But that's the least likely scenario.

Most failures will likely mean either a replacement module or a replacement of the pack level components. If they do have to replace the pack as a whole, it's most likely to be replaced with a refurbished one.

I don't think anyone has any idea what Tesla would charge for each of those options - likely in the same ballpark as a modern ICE car charges for a replacement engine or transmission out of warranty - and just like those components, it's really designed to last the life of the car and never need replacement under normal circumstances.
 
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So when I do a full charge, my car says it has a range of 270 miles, not 290 like it should. Projected range is different in that it basis it off your past diving habits. Its so funny, when I bought my car, the MY PUP had a range of 280, then mine went down to 270, then the update came out that was supposed to boost it to 290, mine went up to 280, now its back down to 270... Its very discouraging.

Note that what you’re describing likely has far more to do with the BMS software and how it displays range at full then with ACTUAL range or battery degradation. Do a range test under controlled circumstances, then a year from now do the same exact range test controlling for as many variables as possible. Then you will know if you have any actual battery degradation. Or you could just enjoy driving the car. :)
 
So when I do a full charge, my car says it has a range of 270 miles, not 290 like it should. Projected range is different in that it basis it off your past diving habits. Its so funny, when I bought my car, the MY PUP had a range of 280, then mine went down to 270, then the update came out that was supposed to boost it to 290, mine went up to 280, now its back down to 270... Its very discouraging.

That is still based on your driving habits/conditions. You have not had 6% degradation.

What is your average wh/mi? I have a PUP with 5500 miles and my average wh/mi is 259.
 
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Batteries last for 300k miles at least that is what I been told and read.

At 300k miles my expectations is the car will be worthless. I think that would be the no matter what car you buy. The truth is really any car you buy may blow up if you have 150k miles. I don’t keep cars over 100k miles and assume anyone driving a lot miles dumps their cars at certain time.

The big question with tesla is when you will be able to buy rebuilt refurbished batteries. In 4 or 5 years good chance you be able to buy used/rebuilt batteries for the same as an engine or transmission replacement like any car.

the only reason you don’t hear about 15-20k engine and transmission replacements is because there is a lot used/rebuilt parts for ice cars.

if you drive a lot buy a Tesla drive until battery warranty is up and sell it. If you want a car that is cheap to fix for major repairs buy a 3-5 year low mileage car and drive it into the ground.
 
If the concern ever comes to fruition, rest assured that there will be someone with aftermarket batteries to fill the void if Tesla doesn't. Apparently Tesla is confident that it's not necessary at this point..Of course, several years down the road we may want to simply replace our good batteries because the newer ones will be much more efficient.
 
I think the reason they got rid of the unlimited warranty is because of people like Tesloop. They don’t want to deal with fleet vehicles, ride share operators, or taxis buying the car once and replacing the battery every three years after 250k miles. I think there is a lot of evidence out there of the battery doing very well at 100k+ miles and especially if you’re not supercharging every day, or multiple times a day like Tesloop.
 
Considering the amount of complexity and just parts in general in an ICE including the things that make combustion happen - from sensors to oil seals - it seems like even if it’s dollar for dollar comparing the Model 3 or Model Y (or any Tesla) to an ICE, that there will be just less to go wrong. Even comparing a Toyota.

I would like to see some evidence of any ICE that is running with 200k or more miles after 10 years that has zero oil seepage from seals or never had any type of exhaust work or repair. I don’t believe they exist. Time and mileage will get everything eventually.
 
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That is still based on your driving habits/conditions. You have not had 6% degradation.

What is your average wh/mi? I have a PUP with 5500 miles and my average wh/mi is 259.

The Tesla API gives you two numbers a rated range and estimated range.. the later one is based on driving habits. My rated range is 215 miles at 80% charge, which means with 290 miles originally, 80% of that should be 232 miles. Essentially I am at about 273 miles at 100% vs 290 miles at 100%, or a 6% drop. Now the Tesla API says my estimated range is at ~210 at an 80% charge, or about 5 miles less then my rated range. So that takes into account my driving habits. Also FYI my car says I am at about 300 Wh/m since I bought it.
 
Last I saw a Model 3 LR pack replacement was about $13k + 4.5 hours of labor. It should be similar for a Model Y. (Though it has likely come down even more since then.)

But as others have said you are jumping the gun here. Chances are your battery will last way past the warranty. Model S/X packs have gone ~500k miles and kept going...
 
Last I saw a Model 3 LR pack replacement was about $13k + 4.5 hours of labor. It should be similar for a Model Y. (Though it has likely come down even more since then.)

But as others have said you are jumping the gun here. Chances are your battery will last way past the warranty. Model S/X packs have gone ~500k miles and kept going...
That's a great price. Last price I saw to replace the battery on my Fiat 500e was $37k+, which effectively makes the car scrap metal if it has a dead battery.

That's about in line with a motor or transmission replacement on an ICE car. The BIG question is how long should we expect the service life to be on our Model 3 & Y's batteries? I know people say 300,000 miles but what will it be in reality. Going to be a few years before we have enough high mileage cars out in the wild to know for sure.
 
The BIG question is how long should we expect the service life to be on our Model 3 & Y's batteries? I know people say 300,000 miles but what will it be in reality. Going to be a few years before we have enough high mileage cars out in the wild to know for sure.

May depend a lot on what you consider to be service life.

The industry standard for batteries is when they lose 20% of capacity - at which point you still have 80% of the range remaining. Single cell failures won't take down a Tesla pack - it'll pop the cell fuses and go on with a slight capacity reduction.

There are a few pack level components that can fail, like the contactors and pyro fuses - but those should be a lot less cost to replace, either directly on your car or through swapping with a refurbished pack and then fixing yours up the chain.
 
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I think the reason they got rid of the unlimited warranty is because of people like Tesloop. They don’t want to deal with fleet vehicles, ride share operators, or taxis buying the car once and replacing the battery every three years after 250k miles. I think there is a lot of evidence out there of the battery doing very well at 100k+ miles and especially if you’re not supercharging every day, or multiple times a day like Tesloop.
Fred Lambert from Electrek actually purchased a Tesloop MX, with 400k miles. Battery was replaced around 300k miles (I believe) under warranty. Check it out, he has a couple of videos about the car. Here is the first one -
 
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Considering the amount of complexity and just parts in general in an ICE including the things that make combustion happen - from sensors to oil seals - it seems like even if it’s dollar for dollar comparing the Model 3 or Model Y (or any Tesla) to an ICE, that there will be just less to go wrong. Even comparing a Toyota.

I would like to see some evidence of any ICE that is running with 200k or more miles after 10 years that has zero oil seepage from seals or never had any type of exhaust work or repair. I don’t believe they exist. Time and mileage will get everything eventually.

I own a 2007 Prius with close to 500k miles. Our 2017 Prius Prime has 145k miles. On the 2007, oil changes, did the brakes once, catalytic converter once, spark plugs, and some bushings. That's it. My XJ8 Jaguar blew up at 60k and five years.
 
I own a 2007 Prius with close to 500k miles. Our 2017 Prius Prime has 145k miles. On the 2007, oil changes, did the brakes once, catalytic converter once, spark plugs, and some bushings. That's it. My XJ8 Jaguar blew up at 60k and five years.
It’s hard to argue against the value of a Prius, especially from a pure cost standpoint, but if you value performance, complete freedom from fossil fuels, safety or technology the Model Y may be worth considering. Per mile cost will be pretty comparable between the Model Y and the Prius once you’re past upfront cost of vehicle, fueling the vehicle alone will probably cost less per mile with the Model Y. Any ICE vehicle that can rival the Model Y in performance and utility will have much higher operating costs.
 
I own a 2007 Prius with close to 500k miles. Our 2017 Prius Prime has 145k miles. On the 2007, oil changes, did the brakes once, catalytic converter once, spark plugs, and some bushings. That's it. My XJ8 Jaguar blew up at 60k and five years.
Yes, my mechanic friend says if everyone drove a Prius he’d have to find a new line of work. I look forward to the day when Toyota makes a legit BEV. Imagine if there were a 4Runner with 300+ miles of pure electric range.
 
Note that what you’re describing likely has far more to do with the BMS software and how it displays range at full then with ACTUAL range or battery degradation. Do a range test under controlled circumstances, then a year from now do the same exact range test controlling for as many variables as possible. Then you will know if you have any actual battery degradation. Or you could just enjoy driving the car. :)

Right. Up to 18k miles, my "range at 100%" had dropped 1-2%, mostly in the first months. That with the initial "range" at 310 miles. This is for my P3D-, stealth performance. Rated the same miles as the non-stealth DM-AWD. But wait, the new Performance 3 is rated at 299 miles versus 322 miles for the same AWD. Even the stealth 3 is obviously not as efficient as the AWD. Probably a little better than the full performance though. I have an average Wh/mi at 19k of 329. Not efficient but mostly because I just don't give a sh*t. I just drive. Probably 90% of those miles are on the interstate cruising at 85 mph. Speed limit here 80. I commute 150 miles one way and then 150 miles back once a week. Easy drive but hills and wind.

Then I had another predicted drop several weeks ago of 1-3%, and oh, guess what, there had been a software update just before that drop. There's your uncle's monkey right there. But there's always a software update. Coincidence is an unruly player. Nevertheless, I did not appreciate a computer telling me that I could drive 5-10 miles less at 100% charge. Excuse me! I beg your pardon, I don't appreciate that one little bit. Jerk! So I switched to % charge and mind your own business. I'll ostrich that sand in one fell swoop.

What I have done and will continue to do is monitor my efficiency and range over time, as suggested by the always sensible and knowledgable EnrgyNDpndnce. Even with the predicted drop my range for the last 1k miles has been the same and at times better. But as with an ICE vehicle, I'm not likely to notice a difference of 10-15 miles on a full tank/battery. Conditions can account for more than that. I can of course drive more efficiently and get better than the predicted range. I have done that on my commute and gotten better than the 310 miles. I have also played with the BMS balance question and have "gotten back some miles" but the truth is it jumps around regardless of my charging habits. Coincidence rarely hides in a corner.

The point is those numbers ain't real. Even unreal numbers, however, that drop are unsettling. But is the drop even real? And why does this bother us? It bothers us because we have more experience with ICE than with EVs. Our experience with batteries is that they Duracell out. We have to replace them. That's what we know, our experience with every battery we have ever owned. Same with an internal combustion engine but that one we know, and accept. I have gotten 200k-300k+ miles from internal combustion engines, mostly diesel. I'm cool with that. But now for the unknown...........new electric vehicle battery life.........hold tight .......we have after all committed to this experiment so let's play it out. And when I say play it out I would emphasize the play part........At worse with loss of range as the battery ages we would have to charge slightly more often. At what point do you replace a battery because you have to charge it slightly more often? Depends, right? Circumstance, necessity, and convenience.
 
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Yes, my mechanic friend says if everyone drove a Prius he’d have to find a new line of work. I look forward to the day when Toyota makes a legit BEV. Imagine if there were a 4Runner with 300+ miles of pure electric range.

Exactly. The 4Runner has been my vehicle of choice for the last 25 years. Our 2001 4Runner, which the kids now drive, has never needed more than routine service and a second set of tires. Our 2019 TRD offroad 4Runner does have a 310-mile gas range, same in theory as my P3D-. Here in the outbacks of Montana, even ICE vehicles can cause range anxiety. It can be hundreds of miles to the next station. Anyway, blah blah blah, my next 4Runner will be the Cybertruck. My order for the trimotor CT list a 500 mile range. Looks like it should be even better offroad.
 
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