Battery Day expectations

[SergeyUser]

What do you expect the MOST from the upcoming battery day?

I personally would love to hear some news on future battery upgrade options for existing Tesla owners. I hate to think that the only upgrade option is to buy a new car.

 

[JoJoV111]

I don't see battery upgrades happening. IIRC they have said in the past that battery swaps would cost around 15k. I think they are working on battery chemistry/density/manufacturing rather than ways to decrease the cost of battery switching.

 

[Backpacker42]

I agree. Why would you focus on something that is not yet in demand and could potentially hurt your future sales. Unless you are an edge case (extreme mileage, need to push range to the limit of what is possible,etc), I wouldn't expect to have to consider swapping batteries for at least the next 5-7 years even if you are above the national driving average of 14,000 miles/year. Maybe even 10-15 years if you take good care of your batteries - at which point most people would have replaced their cars anyway - the average car is on the road 11 years, and most people buy a new car every six years. So I would imagine this is not going to be on Tesla's radar unless 5-7 years from now a substantial number of people start demanding it, or Tesla suddenly becomes a lot more conscientious about reuse - which might not be in their best interests in terms of selling new cars. Maybe a third party will find a niche market in replacing batteries.

 

[UncertainTimes]

I’d like to see negative vampire drain

 

[SergeyUser]

I’d like to see negative vampire drain

Solar roof on a Tesla will give you that.

 

[KenC]

Cheaper LFP, longer-lasting battery.

 

[LionXng]

Lasers

 

[TX_M3P+]

I agree. Why would you focus on something that is not yet in demand and could potentially hurt your future sales. Unless you are an edge case (extreme mileage, need to push range to the limit of what is possible,etc), I wouldn't expect to have to consider swapping batteries for at least the next 5-7 years even if you are above the national driving average of 14,000 miles/year. Maybe even 10-15 years if you take good care of your batteries - at which point most people would have replaced their cars anyway - the average car is on the road 11 years, and most people buy a new car every six years. So I would imagine this is not going to be on Tesla's radar unless 5-7 years from now a substantial number of people start demanding it, or Tesla suddenly becomes a lot more conscientious about reuse - which might not be in their best interests in terms of selling new cars. Maybe a third party will find a niche market in replacing batteries.

I hear what you are saying but disagree with the premise that Tesla has no incentive to do it unless people demand it. Range is a particularly differentiating factor in an EV purchase and something most consider when buying. Depending on use case, longer range is mostly preferred over shorter range, even if that means needing to charge for longer amounts of time. With new EVs getting ready to hit the market (Lucid Air) with a higher range and performance than Tesla, that will surely push Tesla to try and take that advantage away from those competitors, as soon as possible. Just my thoughts.

 

[BlindPass]

Another step on the path to million-mile batteries and V2G is what I hope. Together those two make Tesla a real sustainable energy company.

I expect some type of eye-candy- maybe with S/X upgrades in range and performance, FSD, manufacturing improvements, etc. Insurance improvements would be nice.

This is Tesla’s bread and butter, and I expect it to be good. The stock run-up alone has been great.

 

[BlindPass]

I agree. Why would you focus on something that is not yet in demand and could potentially hurt your future sales.

Because of a stated desire to proliferate sustainability.

Personally, I don’t want to drive an older car, but in the robo taxis future in which personal car ownership is diminished

 

[Adam3]

Crypto mining when the car is parked

 

[Sam1]

What do you expect the MOST from the upcoming battery day?

I personally would love to hear some news on future battery upgrade options for existing Tesla owners. I hate to think that the only upgrade option is to buy a new car.

What happens when you buy a corvette stingray, but then you want the performance of a corvette ZR1 two years later?

 

[SergeyUser]

What happens when you buy a corvette stingray, but then you want the performance of a corvette ZR1 two years later?

What happens when you buy a PC and want more storage/memory two years later?

 

[LionXng]

What happens when you buy a PC and want more storage/memory two years later?

Honestly, I build a whole new PC...

 

[SergeyUser]

Honestly, I build a whole new PC...

Wow. I would be happy with just battery update, and a couple of smaller retrofits...

 

[SergeyUser]

I don't see battery upgrades happening. IIRC they have said in the past that battery swaps would cost around 15k. I think they are working on battery chemistry/density/manufacturing rather than ways to decrease the cost of battery switching.

Your estimate is waay off. Tesla designed Model 3 battery packs to allow battery module replacements without replacing the whole battery pack. Source: Tesla Model 3 battery module replacements to cost $5k to $7k, says Elon Musk

 

[camalaio]

What do I expect?

Underwhelming development, fantastic promises of the future, and lots of hype. Generally. Something available "late next year" that delivers on only half the promise two years late.

What do I want?

A 100kWh battery in a small hatchback.

---

Ok but more seriously, I'm not expecting any ground-breaking developments. Panasonic already recently gave their 5 year targets for Tesla batteries of 20% energy density increase and a line of cobalt-free cells (I think these are to be realised in different types of cells, i.e. the 20% more dense is not the same as the cobalt-free). It would be weird for them to publicly state that while Tesla has something huge under its sleeve for battery day.

I expect some more details on the CATL LiFePo batteries, maybe a statement on if those will make it to Model 3s outside of China, and maybe some numbers/stories on what needs these batteries serve in the grand picture of Tesla.

And perhaps an announcement they're killing the single-motor Cybertruck. They quoted it for 250+ mile range. They killed the SR Model Y because it was under 300 miles.

Your estimate is waay off. Tesla designed Model 3 battery packs to allow battery module replacements without replacing the whole battery pack. Source: Tesla Model 3 battery module replacements to cost $5k to $7k, says Elon Musk

An optimistic projection based on projections of Li-ion battery pricing in the future. I say "optimistic" because this clearly doesn't include labour. The Model 3 pack is not easy to drop out like the S/X as it wasn't designed for hot-swapping. Additionally, remanufacture of the high voltage pack will not be done at just any service center and likely needs to go to California or something for a multitude of reasons. So in addition to just the raw part replacement cost, you have:

• Many hours of labour to extract the battery
• Labour to prepare the battery for shipping, especially if shipping by air
• The immense cost of shipping a 1000lb battery (for the LR)
• Labour to unseal the pack, swap out the modules, seal the pack again, test, prep for shipping.
• Immense shipping costs, round two
• Many hours of labour to reinstall the battery

Well over $7k, and probably without your vehicle for weeks.

 

[JoJoV111]

Your estimate is waay off. Tesla designed Model 3 battery packs to allow battery module replacements without replacing the whole battery pack. Source: Tesla Model 3 battery module replacements to cost $5k to $7k, says Elon Musk

Tesla has three other vehicles besides the 3! Also 5-7k is still a hefty price that, in my opinion, wouldn't necessarily be worth the extra 20 EPA miles.

 

[SergeyUser]

Tesla has three other vehicles besides the 3! Also 5-7k is still a hefty price that, in my opinion, wouldn't necessarily be worth the extra 20 EPA miles.

Maybe it is 100 extra miles, who knows. But my main point is to change battery when original one is too degraded and add, say, extra 10 years of life to your car. It may very well be worth 5-7k.

 

[garu]

praying for Model Y LR RWD