Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[mtndrew1]

I don't think there is any evidence that the Bolt is a compliance car, it's just overpriced for what it is and needs new seats.

The whole Bolt program is very "GM" though in that they rushed it to be the first to market and (at least at the six month mark) seem to have missed what customers really wanted while nailing what customers *said* they wanted. GM made the world's best Leaf (not ugly, quick, great range) and priced it like a 328i. Tesla is attempting to make a better 328i.

Remember, this is the same company that in the midst of their epic stumble towards bankruptcy decided to divert resources towards a convertible pickup truck and a two-seat roadster without a trunk.

 

[McRat]

Oh, no, I'm not defending or promoting VW in any way. I think they are deceitful criminals. No, I'm just pointing out that their new plans, partially out of necessity due to Dieselgate has possibly some serious electrification effort including building their own large scale battery cell manufacturing. They've announced the plans, but unclear when they actually commit the euros and break ground. It isn't about the current offerings but instead, the commitments with dollars and manpower for the next 2-5 years. BMW has made some of the same noises, but not yet made the same level of commitments. The Volt can best be seen as a strong competitor for the Prius, but not really about the 2020's.

Announcements are not action is my point of contention. VW continues to do a Concept car or very limited production model to flex their muscle to the press, then continue on with their original game plan. "Hey! We have a 261 mpg car! (it's $120k and you can't get one)". But where is VW's Prius competitor?

The Volt is simply not a Prius competitor. From a sales, price, performance, and engineering design, the only thing they share in common is both have electric motors and ICE motors. You might as well say an eTron is Prius competitor, which is far more similar.

The Prius is an appliance first, a driving experience second. Chevy focused on a fun commuter car first, then a green car second. Hence why it costs more. It has better content.

But here's something that most folk do not know:

Compare Side-by-Side

Look at the All Electric Range of these cars. Notice they all say 0-XX miles. If you drive the car like you enjoy driving, you have to use gasoline. These are all True Compliance EVs. They get partial to full credit for being an EV, but are really ICE cars with electric assist. Except of course the Volt.

Much like the Bolt, Chevrolet did not aim for a C- in the class. Just enough to pass with credit. They aimed for a B. An A is too expensive for average buyers, and C is just not how Chevrolet does things.

 

[dauger]

Specific to the Bolt, Elon Musk gave a soliloquy in the 17Q1 Tesla call that made my ears perk up:

"But the CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year. So that's why you'll see, mark my words, it's not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That's on order of 25,000 units a year..."

I find it completely plausible that CARB's incentives does not motivate GM to make more than 30k Bolts per year, but can anyone cite a source (CARB rules, a calculation, an analysis) that confirms what Elon is saying?

Having that proof would tell us the first 30,000 or so Bolts per year is for compliance, but GM's 30,001st Bolt and beyond, in the same year, is not, should GM make them.

 

[MP3Mike]

I find it completely plausible that CARB's incentives does not motivate GM to make more than 30k Bolts per year, but can anyone cite a source (CARB rules, a calculation, an analysis) that confirms what Elon is saying?

It has to do with how many ZEV credits you need to offset your ICE sales.

 

[RobStark]

Having that proof would tell us the first 30,000 or so Bolts per year is for compliance, but GM's 30,001st Bolt and beyond, in the same year, is not, should GM make them.

Credits are bankable and never expire.

GM sells roughly 200k cars per year in CA.

Figuring out how many credits it needs is slightly less complicated that figuring out Solar City financial statements.

But lets say it needs 30k Bolt sales per year.

It can sell 60k per year for five years then sell none for the next five years. And be in compliance for the next 10 years.

All the OEMs like to have extra in the bank so they don't "have to" earn them in a short period or be held over a barrel by Tesla.

 

[alloverx]

If the Bolt is overpriced, one could say certain Model S/X are also overpriced. It is subjective on one level of course but the sales figures do show patterns. The next Leaf (with max battery), 2018 Jag i-pace ($60K) and 2018 Hyundai electric SUV pricing will be interesting. Not to mention when you can buy a base Model-3 for $35K, assuming many folks even would want a base model.

 

[bro1999]

So interesting thing I observed when DCFC'ing my Bolt the other day.
Ambient temp was a nice 70F, and the pack temperature before charging was 75F. After hooking up to the EVgo station, I noticed some weird noises around 15 minutes into my session. Turned out the Bolt's TMS activated when the pack temperature hit ~84F. Stayed on the remaining 45 min I charged, and temp stayed at 84. Only took up about 1-2 kW of extra energy to run.

Ended up charging just shy of 40 kWh in 60 minutes.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I've made these calculations over the years many times. The rules tend to change every 3 years, and we just had a big change for 2018. Here's the rough estimates:

CARB-ZEV credits earned - Range by UDDS test cycle
Model Years 2018 - 2025

1 credit - 50 mile range car (Mitsubishi iMiev, new Honda EV w/ 80 mile range... they better sell a lot of hydrogen cars... which they won't)

2 credit - 150 mile range car (all the cars that were recently bumped up in range from 80 mile EPA cars... Ford Focus Electric, VW eGolf, BMW i3, probably the LEAF w/30kWh, but for sure the 40kWh LEAF for 2018)

3 credit - 250 mile range car (Model 3, Leaf v2.0 w/60kWh, Bolt EV)

4 credit - 350 mile range car (all the hydrogen cars that CARB seems to love, Tesla 100kWh cars... maybe a Model 3 with 75kWh battery, some of the )

There is no longer any credit for "fast refueling" that was intended to favor hydrogen cars. Tesla dropped the battery swap concept during the last rule change in 2014? that required proof that cars were actually getting battery swaps, not just capable of the act. One token swap station in the middle of California didn't win them over.

So, now we need to know the minimum credits required. For 2012-2017, that value was 0.79% of the annual fleet sold in California.

If you sold 150,000 cars like GM does, that you needed to sell 1185 credits per year. The Spark EV was their compliance car for many (most) of those years, and the 80 mile range cars all earned 3 CARB-ZEV credits (hence, why that all went 80 miles for 2012-2017).

ANNUAL MINIMUM ZERO EMISSION VEHICLE SALES
Model Years 2012-2017
General Motors with 150,000 sales per year in California @ 0.79% = 1185 credits

395 Spark EVs = 1185 credits / 3 CARB-ZEV credits per vehicle

Bolt EV earns 3 CARB-ZEV credits per year, PLUS it must be sold in ALL the CARB-ZEV states (there are 10 now). Of course, hydrogen is exempt from this "traveling provision" and can continue to sell hydrogen cars ONLY in California at the minimum number to meet all CARB-ZEV obligations for all CARB states. Is the air getting cleaner in CARB-ZEV state Maryland because there's a hydrogen car in California? I doubt it.

ANNUAL MINIMUM ZERO EMISSION VEHICLE SALES
General Motors with 150,000 sales per year in California
Model Year 2019 @ 4% = 6,000 CARB-ZEV minimum credits
Model Year 2020 @ 6% = 9,000 CARB-ZEV minimum credits
Model Year 2021 @ 8% = 12,000 CARB-ZEV minimum credits
until reaching
Model Year 2025 @16%= 24,000 CARB-ZEV minimum credits


8,000 Bolt EVs = 24,000 credits / 3 CARB-ZEV credits per vehicle

Now factor in all the other CARB-ZEV states total annual sales by GM and you'll come up with... about 35,000 annual sales far in the future in just the CARB-ZEV states.

Specific to the Bolt, Elon Musk gave a soliloquy in the 17Q1 Tesla call that made my ears perk up:

"But the CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year. So that's why you'll see, mark my words, it's not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That's on order of 25,000 units a year..."

I find it completely plausible that CARB's incentives does not motivate GM to make more than 30k Bolts per year, but can anyone cite a source (CARB rules, a calculation, an analysis) that confirms what Elon is saying?

Having that proof would tell us the first 30,000 or so Bolts per year is for compliance, but GM's 30,001st Bolt and beyond, in the same year, is not, should GM make them.

 

[TonyWilliams]

It needs to be stated that our illustrious dear leader Trump wants to disable the California emissions rules.

 

[TonyWilliams]

So interesting thing I observed when DCFC'ing my Bolt the other day...

Ended up charging just shy of 40 kWh in 60 minutes.

I'm confused why you and your cohorts were so convinced that the car charges at a peak 48kW, when it's PAINFULLY clear on the dash panel what the max charge rate is?

Without ever charging the car, I could easily calculate that peak at 45.5kW, and lo and behold, that's what it is.

 

[schonelucht]

Opel delivered the first Ampera-e's to customers in Norway today. (Use google translate : Opel Ampera-e: Disse tre har fått bilen over 4.000 nordmenn venter på ) Registration data points to another 7 cars are now road legal and presumably being delivered. Seems like GM/Opel are sticking to the original timeline but at dramatically slower ramp up than originally hoped for. Nice little touch : tomorrow is Norway's national holiday and the three delivered colors make up the country's flag.

 

[bro1999]

Opel delivered the first Ampera-e's to customers in Norway today. (Use google translate : Opel Ampera-e: Disse tre har fått bilen over 4.000 nordmenn venter på ) Registration data points to another 7 cars are now road legal and presumably being delivered. Seems like GM/Opel are sticking to the original timeline but at dramatically slower ramp up than originally hoped for. Nice little touch : tomorrow is Norway's national holiday and the three delivered colors make up the country's flag.

Someone take their new Amepera-E to the closest 100 kW CCS station and have them report back the results!

 

[transpondster]

Why? 125 Amps and in Europe remains 125, it's pretty obvious currently limit is 125, will it be upgraded in future probably even GM doesn't know ATM

 

[McRat]

Why? 125 Amps and in Europe remains 125, it's pretty obvious currently limit is 125, will it be upgraded in future probably even GM doesn't know ATM

The owner's manual says for best charging speed, use a 80kW or higher CCS.

They might be capping the charge rate at 1C. The battery is about 64kWh, system losses could require 80 kW placard rating on the charger to get 64kW into the battery itself.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why? 125 Amps and in Europe remains 125, it's pretty obvious currently limit is 125, will it be upgraded in future probably even GM doesn't know ATM

Source? As others point out, the manual references 80kW chargers. Can't get 80kW with only 125A (at least not with the Bolt's current pack voltage).

 

[McRat]

It will be interesting. If the Bolt can (just theoretically) handle 64kW for 30 minutes, that is 120 miles per half-hour charging. But that might be more than the cooling system can handle.

 

[transpondster]

keep dreaming meanwhile some google-fu gives:
Google Translate

do you really think Opel would be silent about it if it supported faster charging?https://translate.googleusercontent...366087&usg=ALkJrhjzn3C2GMux-7Nha4nFK5i6DNXIXQ

 

[scottf200]

keep dreaming meanwhile some google-fu gives:
Google Translate

do you really think Opel would be silent about it if it supported faster charging?

i.imgur.com/EYngqlx.jpg

 

[bro1999]

i.imgur.com/EYngqlx.jpg

"Monitor your energy-flow meters, and you’ll notice that on some downhill stretches and when decelerating from high speeds—especially in L mode or with the regen-paddle pulled—that the regenerative braking system is dumping electrons into the battery at a rate of 70 kW. The onboard fast-charger can only muster 60."
Chevrolet Bolt EV Engineers Reveal 11 Cool Facts About our Car of the Year - Motor Trend

With all the conflicting statements (manual says 80 kW, Opel guy says 50 kW, Bolt engineers via Motortrend say 60 kW), we can all end the speculation by someone just plugging it into the 100 kW CCS Bjorn used to test the Ioniq Electric (<50% SOC).

As far as I know, there are no publicly accessible CCS stations rated above 50 kW. Theoretically, some stations can put out 62.5 kW (500V, 125 amp), but no EV in existence has a HV battery that approaches anywhere near 500V for a nominal voltage.

 

[RayW]

The best thing about the 238-mile Bolt is it ensures the Model 3 will have a 239+ mile range