What are we defining as constitutes a hit? They aren't planning on making enough of them, imo, to determine if they are a hit or not. By the time they can make enough, as I've mentioned a few times before, there's very few logical reasons for anyone to purchase a Bolt over a Model 3... the value proposition is so lopsided that only a brain fart, unrealistic, makes-no-logical- sense reason, or 'I need a car yesterday and there are no used Model 3's/floor models today that allow me an immediate purchase, would have someone purchase a Bolt over a Model 3 - because to date we are expecting only two features to be similar; range and pricing (though Model 3 is expected to have a lower base price and I'll believe the Bolt range when it actually happens in the real world with real drivers). All the rest of the vehicle features have the Model 3 ahead by a landslide; charging network, safety (yes, I expect Elon to insist on 5* rating across the board and in every sub-category), OTA updates, cargo space, business model (shopping, buying, customer service), looks (yes, I'm pretty sure the Model 3 isn't going to look like a rectangular box on wheels), etc...
And I'm not even sure that GM can produce the Bolt at any significant profit, at least and until they are producing 100,000s per year. I actually am expecting them to lose money on every Bolt initially. So, even if the Bolt sells out their first year of production in a week...will that handful of cars convince her that GM can make money on them? Uh....not holding my breath. Happy to be wrong.