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We've had EDDs push out whole quarters in Australia at the last second. We don't have the wavering you guys have for our EDDs. It's set as a static block (was 14-20 weeks) and then after they switched to domestic, blew out to Aug - Nov. I don't think EDDs are a reliable metric whatsoever, only VIN.
I agree EDDs are not reliable and mine was pushed from June to Sep, but with some wavering as you say. However, this was due to unforeseen circumstances (lockdown), rather than planned activity. That’s my glimmer of hope. Of course others could be right and we could be intentionally pushed back also.
It doesn’t help that you Aussies have massively added to the demand for RHD MYs! 😉
 
We've had EDDs push out whole quarters in Australia at the last second. We don't have the wavering you guys have for our EDDs. It's set as a static block (was 14-20 weeks) and then after they switched to domestic, blew out to Aug - Nov. I don't think EDDs are a reliable metric whatsoever, only VIN.
We’ve had it too, sometimes just a variant of a model. Our EDDs are windows too, they are often a few weeks. I agree they’re no more than a current best guess which makes it funny when people have a 6 week EDD range move by 1 day.
 
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So yeah, unfortunately it would seem that the 4-day closure reported was incomplete. It is indeed 4 day total interruption factory-wide - but then two weeks with no MYs (only 3s) - then two weeks with no 3s .....

I begin to understand while there are no EDDs planned before the end of August now...
Assuming full production rates (17k/wk before shutdown and 22k/wk after) then by the end of august they should have produced roughly the same amount of cars with only a couple of thousand difference. So if they start shipping to europe mid to late july then early august is still doable. Maybe not likely but possible.
 
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I agree EDDs are not reliable and mine was pushed from June to Sep, but with some wavering as you say. However, this was due to unforeseen circumstances (lockdown), rather than planned activity. That’s my glimmer of hope. Of course others could be right and we could be intentionally pushed back also.
It doesn’t help that you Aussies have massively added to the demand for RHD MYs! 😉
Haha. Yes. Y release was a shock to all involved i think, including Elon apparently. Too many accountants, lawyers, finance bros and shareholders chasing profit and not enough focus on the people who give them their money (i.e. us) in my opinion.
 
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Individual production lines get shut down all the time for various reasons, and the shutdown of the whole factory hasn’t changed.

The changes will add ~30% more capacity at the loss of 2 weeks of the 13 in the quarter on each line, call it 15%, so they’re still up 15% over the quarter compared to historic run rates. Things rarely work out to plan but barring unforeseen issues they could still possibly deliver the best production numbers in China in quarter. As said in earlier post, they’ll have a view on expected volumes through all this and be planning and reacting accordingly,

As for no August EDD, usual Tesla production cycles would normally result in limited August numbers compared to Sept, plus UK reg updates in Sept result in more wanting to defer by the week or so to get a 72 plate. Last year may not be the best example due to Covid but tesla delivered 500 or so cars in August compared to 7k in Sept.

TL;DR it’s a non issue, and don’t start looking for boats leaving in July like you wouldn’t in any other year.
I take issue when I just missed Q2 deliveries by a few days (as most were allocated to mid-March), and any further delays on the supply chain would push me further to a Sept - Oct delivery, bringing my total lead time order-to-delivery to 6 months +, when I was promised 3 when I initially placed my order.
I'm growing a bit sick of the 'it's only an estimate bla bla bla' or 'lots of people in line would take your place if you want to cancel bla bla'...

Isn't this unprecedented? I mean apart from customer-rejected deliveries and pre-orders, what's the longest time someone had to wait here to get their Tesla?

I just know that in any business when you miss the delivery estimate by an x2 factor, customers usually gets at least an apology....
And we are not even mentioning the stress about expired finance agreements, APR and price rises all across the board, we are being told that they will honour the original terms but I'll believe it when I'll have the final invoice signed... until then I'm afraid that the chances of me being behind the wheel of a new model Y by year end are slimming with every day...
 
Assuming full production rates (17k/wk before shutdown and 22k/wk after) then by the end of august they should have produced roughly the same amount of cars with only a couple of thousand difference. So if they start shipping to europe mid to late july then early august is still doable. Maybe not likely but possible.
Well as the Y assembly line won't be reopened until mid-July I am confused as to what you expect them to ship by that date?
I don't believe they will be sitting on a lot of inventory by June 30th so there shouldn't be anything ready to ship.

But agreed that with a typical RoRo capacity they could possibly send at least two ships per week to Europe when they restart it... I'll guess we'll have to see...
 
Today my model y edd got changed from 22 September - 6 November to 16 September - 31 October. So it decreased... Not sure what to think of it.
At best nothing, at worst that someone in production is bollocking the higher ups because they are afraid of losing their job. "Honest we're 2 weeks ahead of schedule Mr Elon, Sir" 😰. Would explain why Elon is so often completely wrong on his projections.
 
I take issue when I just missed Q2 deliveries by a few days (as most were allocated to mid-March), and any further delays on the supply chain would push me further to a Sept - Oct delivery, bringing my total lead time order-to-delivery to 6 months +, when I was promised 3 when I initially placed my order.
I'm growing a bit sick of the 'it's only an estimate bla bla bla' or 'lots of people in line would take your place if you want to cancel bla bla'...

Isn't this unprecedented? I mean apart from customer-rejected deliveries and pre-orders, what's the longest time someone had to wait here to get their Tesla?

I just know that in any business when you miss the delivery estimate by an x2 factor, customers usually gets at least an apology....
And we are not even mentioning the stress about expired finance agreements, APR and price rises all across the board, we are being told that they will honour the original terms but I'll believe it when I'll have the final invoice signed... until then I'm afraid that the chances of me being behind the wheel of a new model Y by year end are slimming with every day...
That mid March allocation was odd. I have a day 1 YP on order but decided to get a LR in the meantime. I got a late March delivery but only ordered 3 weeks prior. Makes no sense at all
 
How likely is it we start seeing Giga Berlin produce MY’s for UK?

Forgive me if I’m wrong but this was the original plan was it not?
After a few reviews on Berlin Tesla’s they seem to have extra features (albeit very minor)

some subtle changes to plastics and finishing which of course everyone will appreciate.
Yes it was the original plan - from Q3, however Berlin was late, very late coming online and it's progress since opening hasn't exactly been stellar.
I think it is still only producing Black or White MYP. It's shut at the moment.
I think we may have to wait a few more months, probably quite a few months, for Berlin to supply UK.
 
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I think it is still only producing Black or White MYP. It's shut at the moment.
Well, GF4 produced around 40 LR for Sixt beides some Ps for Sixts as it seem in the last week of Q2. In the first week of Q3, iGF4 seems to have produced black LRs as show cars for many centers at least in German and white LRs for delivery to customers. Some centers have around 12 cars prepared for delivery and 3 cars have already a confirmed VIN assignment or delivery. They are all 19 inch. Delivery do German Model P customers looks also good as far as I can assess (black and white ordered till February have been mostly delivered).
Hopes are high in Germany, that LR deliveries from GF4 already start in numbers in Q3 (especially becaus of the improvements and ther are quite some strange delivery times slots which cannot really be matched by shipments from china).
That would at least free some more capacity for UK shipments from China.
 
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Does anyone know if there any MYPs on ships currently en-route to Southampton?

I’ve recently been told to expect delivery September - October but can’t tell from the drone footage if any MYPs were waiting to be loaded at the docks.
I think you've got more chance of winning the lottery! As far as we're all aware, MYPs are coming to the UK from Berlin but RHD variants haven't even been built yet, I'd be extremely surprised if you see it this year.
 
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Came for the production news, stayed for the drama 🍿

Philosophical question: if something didn’t happen, is it a movement? Just trying to really fire things up here. 🔥
Not sure if this helps and a bit of a stretch from shut downs but to quote Diodorous Kronos,
If a thing happens then it was going to happen.
Hence it was true before it happened that it would happen.
Therefore only what happens is possible!

Forgive me but I have been waiting nearly 50 years to spread the word!