Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

The way I heard it he ruled out supplemental oxygen on Day 1, day 3, day 4. Implying use on Day 2. I read that as Day 4 being Saturday thus making Day 2 Thursday. But maybe my memory is wrong.

As I said, the timeline is messed up - it's intentionally confusing since Trump is currently driving the misinformation to the press and creating uncertainty and confusion is helpful to him. But the public story is that we're on Day 3 right now. There is no Day 4. Trump tested positive via proper PCR test on Thursday night. That was Day 1, Friday Day 2, Today is Day 3.

Everything else is noise, or has been retracted by his doctor.

You can also just look at his tweet history. Plenty of tweets October 1st - he was feeling fine. October 2nd, he thought he was dying, so he stopped tweeting.

 

[ggr]

Mod: This is not the new politics thread. 8 posts deleted (not counting the ones deleted by the member already). --ggr

 

[dhanson865]

As I said, the timeline is messed up - it's intentionally confusing since Trump is currently driving the misinformation to the press and creating uncertainty and confusion is helpful to him. But the public story is that we're on Day 3 right now. There is no Day 4. Trump tested positive via proper PCR test on Thursday night. That was Day 1, Friday Day 2, Today is Day 3.

Everything else is noise, or has been retracted by his doctor.

From

which occurred on Saturday

* "not on oxygen right now"
* "not needed any this morning or today"
* "will remain off of oxygen going forward"
* "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen"
* "Thursday evening was when they got PCR confirmation"
* "Thursday no oxygen"

So if you go by that briefing he did not have oxygen on any of the 3 days. It was very cagey how he said it, to me it implies he might have had oxygen before Thursday and the guy is avoiding saying that. If so there are more than 3 days in the timeline or this is some sort of " the definition of ""IS" is" kind of word play.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Mod: This is not the new politics thread. 8 posts deleted (not counting the ones deleted by the member already). --ggr

Thank you! Would have deleted mine myself if the timer had not expired. Could probably remove #20946 and #20950 as well, but leave the original disagreement untouched.

 

[PACEMD]

I can tell you that from my experience treating patients with SARS-CoV-2 there's not much early on which will help to definitively predict how sick someone will become. Even with accurate information. As an emergency physician, I have admitted patients with bad looking chest xrays, requiring oxygen, who did well and others with mostly normal xrays requiring little to no oxygen who crashed and burned. No easy way to predict who will do well and who will not. A bad chest xray and an oxygen requirement are not encouraging but also not totally predictive. There is something we do not yet understand about COVID-19. For now, only the future can accurately predict the outcome. Time is the predictor. Even age and prior medical conditions are not great predictors of outcome. Except in an abstract statistical manner. I have admitted elderly patients with very serious medical histories, who scared the bejebus out of the medical staff, who did fine. And others young and perfectly healthy before COVID, who died. Medicine is a game of statistics, in the abstract. Statistics help predict the general outcome, the specific outcome is a different matter altogether. In real-time it's about individuals. Individuals are not statistics. Medications and treatments are all still just best guesses, often in desperation. Why not? What else can we do? Might help until we have better information, we at least believe it will not cause harm. We have learned a bit about the support of oxygenation and ventilation. Treating COVID-19 patients like we traditionally treated ARDS made things worse. What? But we learned, and quickly. At this point in the HIV epidemic, we knew nothing. The unique thing here is we are having a real-time public conversation about scientific developments. We have never done that before, on this scale. Meaning opening the discussion to the opinions of those without training or experience, and even worse with political bias. The process is moving as usual although at a rapid pace, but it's tainted by hecklers. It's a medical mess. No worries, we will get there, a bit bruised perhaps but we will, nevertheless........

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

From

which occurred on Saturday

* "not on oxygen right now"
* "not needed any this morning or today"
* "will remain off of oxygen going forward"
* "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen"
* "Thursday evening was when they got PCR confirmation"
* "Thursday no oxygen"

So if you go by that briefing he did not have oxygen on any of the 3 days. It was very cagey how he said it, to me it implies he might have had oxygen before Thursday and the guy is avoiding saying that. If so there are more than 3 days in the timeline or this is some sort of " the definition of ""IS" is" kind of word play.

You missed the last one at 27:25. "None at this moment and yesterday with the team, while we were all here, he was not on oxygen.” That's the key. It's pretty clear he was on oxygen - otherwise he would have said he was never on oxygen - which he never said! It does contradict the "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen," but as I said - it's intended to be confusing!

Multiple reliable media sources have also confirmed that conclusion (which was pretty clear listening to the news conference in real time this morning, to be honest).

When did Trump get COVID? White House officials offer conflicting timelines

Covid-19 Live Updates: Trump Is Not Out of Danger, Official Says

 

[PACEMD]

Understand, I'm far from commenting as a medical expert on COVID-19 and I'm not saying folks here are the hecklers, not at all. This is a good and productive conversation. Thanks for that..........

 

[dhanson865]

You missed the last one at 27:25. "None at this moment and yesterday with the team, while we were all here, he was not on oxygen.” That's the key. It's pretty clear he was on oxygen - otherwise he would have said he was never on oxygen - which he never said! It does contradict the "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen," but as I said - it's intended to be confusing!

No I didn't miss that. I saw the whole thing but if you want word for word what he said there let me extend the quotes

* "not on oxygen right now"
* "not needed any this morning or today"
* "will remain off of oxygen going forward"
* "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen"
* "Thursday evening was when they got PCR confirmation"
* "He's not on oxygen today and he's, what's today, Saturday? No. No Thursday. So Thursday no oxygen. None at this moment. yeah and yesterday with the team while we were all here he was not on oxygen"

* "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen" is not ambiguous, that's not dancing around playing word games.

* "So Thursday no oxygen." is not ambiguous. that's not dancing around playing word games.

So either there was a day before Thursday or you are digging really hard to say he got some yesterday or today.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

No I didn't miss that. I saw the whole thing but if you want word for word what he said there let me extend the quotes

* "not on oxygen right now"
* "not needed any this morning or today"
* "will remain off of oxygen going forward"
* "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen"
* "Thursday evening was when they got PCR confirmation"
* "He's not on oxygen today and he's, what's today, Saturday? No. No Thursday. So Thursday no oxygen. None at this moment. yeah and yesterday with the team while we were all here he was not on oxygen"

Again, you can certainly disagree, but in real time, listening to it, there's no other conclusion to draw - though I agree the "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen" is contradictory.

But in any case this conclusion has been confirmed by multiple sources and reported in the mainstream media at this point, and it's not a surprise at all based on what the doctor said. He would have just said he had never been on oxygen, if that were true! Anyway enough about this...we can move on...

 

[dhanson865]

Again, you can disagree, but in real time, listening to it, there's no other conclusion to draw - though I agree the "yesterday and today he was not on oxygen" is contradictory.

But in any case this conclusion has been confirmed by multiple sources at this point, and it's not a surprise at all based on what the doctor said.

I watched it live several hours ago and I thought then and think now he was playing word games but going back and re-watching it I can also clearly see contradictions for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as a whole.

So that to me leaves pre Thrusday or word games. I won't swear to when he got oxygen and I'm not saying he didn't get oxygen. I'm just documenting the hard logical statements made.

I guess that doctor can't be tried for perjury based on a press conference mistake.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm just documenting the hard logical statements made.

That's super tough due to who we're dealing with here. I agree there are contradictions. I just go with the most specific statements and fill in the most likely implication. But fortunately it has been confirmed elsewhere, including the timing, so we no longer really have to guess.

 

[PACEMD]

I guess that doctor can't be tried for perjury based on a press conference mistake.

Perhaps not but it's right there in the Hippocratic oath........thou shall not lie in a press conference........

 

[PACEMD]

Voltaire, in the 1700s, said, "The art of medicine consists of amusing the patient while nature cures the disease". Medicine is still not exactly a precise science but we have advanced somewhat. Today we might say, with diseases we do not yet understand, or for which we have no cure, that the art of medicine consists of supporting the patient while nature takes its course. And that's where we are with COVID-19, supporting oxygenation and ventilation, and trying to understand nature's course. We have advanced a bit since the iron lung days with the support of that oxygenation and ventilation. Along with that support, there is trying this or that which may or may not help, with mixed results. Pretty much what we have been doing for influenza for a long time now, only COVID-19 is way out of influenza's league. Forget numbers, COVID-19 is a much much tougher disease. Anyone who says otherwise, well, they just don't know............

 

[SageBrush]

And that's where we are with COVID-19, supporting oxygenation and ventilation.

Remdesivir
CS

Neither are magic bullets but both have passed randomized clinic trials.

 

[SageBrush]

As I said earlier, the trump oxygen treatment story is mired in White house spin and/or lies. I get the impression that trump was O2 dependent for a time which of course puts a big fat LIE label on the line that trump was hospitalized 'out of an abundance of caution' BS.

His apparent improvement could be viewed with cautious optimism by those who want him to survive but given the context of his improvement after receipt of an experimental drug I have no idea what his course will follow. I also presume that treatment details are incomplete.

 

[PACEMD]

Remdesivir
CS

Neither are magic bullets but both have passed randomized clinic trials.

Sure, there are medications potentially more promising than others. The history of medication trials, approvals, true proven long term effectiveness, and safety is another matter altogether. Drug company trials are very often not able to be replicated, for example. Meaning there is a heavy known bias. Takes a lot of work and a long time to truly understand the effectiveness of new medications. Safety is even more difficult........But you work with what you've got until you have better information.......Nothing new here but the public discussion.

 

[PACEMD]

And what is CS, by the way?

 

[30seconds]

And now Pence (and others) is refusing to quarantine, Sen Johnson went to a festival after testing positive and Christie went massless in the debate prep and then went to the ABC post debate panel.

Maybe shutting down Congress and the White House for a month or two is our best anti-COVID strategy. Certainly will be more effective than what is going on now.

 

[bkp_duke]

And what is CS, by the way?

Convalescent Serum. I.e. serum harvested from donors that have fought off the infection. Time tested (over 100 years) therapy, but not without side effects.
The true historical origin of convalescent plasma therapy

Regeneron's Antibody treatment is basically a synthetic version of CS, with probably about the same effectiveness, but the goal of a lower side-effect profile:
Regeneron's REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail Reduced Viral Levels and Improved Symptoms in Non-Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

 

[SageBrush]

And what is CS, by the way?

Corticosteroids