Coronavirus

[Jeff N]

Trump attends his final G-20 summit but does not participate in pandemic preparedness session

Trump skipped out on the G20 virtual session on Pandemic Preparedness to go play golf.

Totally unsurprising.... Trump discovered that he couldn’t successfully cheat at pandemic preparedness.

 

[cwerdna]

Taiwan's relatively COVID-free life attracts skilled expats

Taiwan has registered just 607 coronavirus cases this year and seven related deaths, according to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. Florida has a slightly smaller population (21.5 million), but has recorded more than 897,000 cases and 17,600 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracker.

 

[heltok]

Taiwan's relatively COVID-free life attracts skilled expats

I have been a digital nomad for many years. This year I have been travelling around to the best weather/virus/restriction destination and can report what I see the community doing. Some people are willing to pay the money and do the 14days to get into a country, for example Thailand, but very few without family ties/business/property do. Phuket/Samui is dead but Bangkok/Chiang Mai seems pretty busy and very few restrictions and close to zero reported cases. Instead the nomad community have been going to Sweden(during the summer), then Playa/Tulum Mexico, Costa Rica and Greece and most recently it seems like everyone is going to Bali. I went to Bali. Great weather, very few reported cases, daily life feels pretty normal except for no night clubs and less aussies. It takes ~$600, a PCR- and some minor paperwork to get into the country and they are starving for tourists so great deals can be done on accomodation.




It seems that the virus likes winters so if you are considering escaping the virus then consider an area without winters that has a somewhat stable virus situation. Hopefully it won’t increase too fast before the vaccine is out.

 

[madodel]

Swedish doctors frustrated with nation's lack of tough Covid-19 measures amid second wave - CNN Video

Swedish doctors frustrated with nation's lack of tough Covid-19 measures

 

[SO16]

Near Grand Haven, MI yesterday, I sat in the parking lot of subway restaurant to order the sandwich online so I could just run in and pick it up. While sitting there, watched 9 customers go in. Only 4 wore a mask (even with the mandate). Disgusting how foolish so many people are. Then many of those same people have signs in their yard saying that our governor is an idiot and blaming her for the shutdowns. Uh, the shutdowns wouldn’t be necessary if people wore their masks.

 

[EVCollies]

I've been trying to get some data to tell my patients when they can expect a COVID vaccine for themselves. Here is the Colorado Department of Health vaccination priority list:

Most of my patients are in 2B thus about a million vaccinations will need to appear before they would start to be vaccinated and 3.3 million before they are completely vaccinated assuming a 100% vaccine acceptance rate (arguably way optimistic in my part of Colorado).

Here is my WAG spreadsheet for vaccine availability, I'm predicting Pfizer will release their initial doses in January and then other manufactures each month. Pfizer claims to have 50 M doses, 1/2 coming to the US but requiring two doses per patient. Pfizer also claims 1.3 B doses for 2021, if the US gets 4% of those that would be 76M doses or 35M vaccinations, thus my prediction for monthly production after the initial dose release. Moderna has promised the US 20 M doses, the other manufacturers I couldn't find data so just assumed Moderna's number. Hopefully all 8 vaccines in phase III trials will be successful but I'm only including these four for now.

I've learned the available vaccine will be divided based upon population of the state and Colorado is approximately 1.78% of the US population.

Looks like my patients will start vaccinations in May or June and complete by the first of the following year.

I'm sure I've missed some points and welcome input.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looking at your table...I thought there were supposed to be 20 million Moderna doses shipped to the US by the end of this year?

For example:
Moderna: 'We're Ready' To Ship 20 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Doses By The End Of 2020

Looks like my patients will start vaccinations in May or June and complete by the first of the following year.

That would be a massive failure of Operation Warp Speed. The whole point is to have massive quantities available when the vaccine is approved by making sure supply chains are working, and covering the costs of manufacture of vaccines that may not be approved. I’m puzzled by the minuscule Moderna quantities, since they were part of OWS. I’d expect if they have 40 million doses between the two vaccines at the end of December, they should be able to add another 80 million in January. Should be ramping up, not producing vaccine at the same rate. (This is based on nothing...just my feelings.) If this doesn’t happen, I wonder what is the point of failure, which we were trying to avoid with OWS?

The market appears to be pricing in an end to the pandemic in March or something. Somehow it knows there will be massive vaccine quantities available in the US by then.

It’ll be interesting to see how the quantities work out. There was The NY Times scare article recently describing how they were having problems producing enough doses due to access to materials. Maybe the article is right, but I’m not convinced yet that we won’t see higher than expected vaccine quantities in January/February. Again, to be clear, this is based on nothing - just my feelings (and desire for this to be over), and to some extent the marginal accuracy & unwarranted pessimism of vaccine-related reporting to date.

Also the US should get the majority of the vaccine supply, since we need it the most (though not if we keep getting infected at this rate). Seems like part of our strategy.

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1330344904879431683?s=20

 

[dhanson865]

I've been trying to get some data to tell my patients when they can expect a COVID vaccine for themselves. Here is the Colorado Department of Health vaccination priority list:

Most of my patients are in 2B thus about a million vaccinations will need to appear before they would start to be vaccinated and 3.3 million before they are completely vaccinated assuming a 100% vaccine acceptance rate (arguably way optimistic in my part of Colorado).

Here is my WAG spreadsheet for vaccine availability, I'm predicting Pfizer will release their initial doses in January and then other manufactures each month. Pfizer claims to have 50 M doses, 1/2 coming to the US but requiring two doses per patient. Pfizer also claims 1.3 B doses for 2021, if the US gets 4% of those that would be 76M doses or 35M vaccinations, thus my prediction for monthly production after the initial dose release. Moderna has promised the US 20 M doses, the other manufacturers I couldn't find data so just assumed Moderna's number. Hopefully all 8 vaccines in phase III trials will be successful but I'm only including these four for now.

I've learned the available vaccine will be divided based upon population of the state and Colorado is approximately 1.78% of the US population.

Looks like my patients will start vaccinations in May or June and complete by the first of the following year.

I'm sure I've missed some points and welcome input.

So those of us in group 3 (general population) you are thinking would be in 2022 before all vaccinations are complete? partial herd immunity by vaccination by end of 2021?

 

[Jeff N]

So those of us in group 3 (general population) you are thinking would be in 2022 before all vaccinations are complete? partial herd immunity by vaccination by end of 2021?

The US government has contracts to purchase 100 million dosage pairs (first and booster) from each company with higher payments for earlier delivery but without hard timing deadlines. Historically, the US has paid more than other countries to pharma companies. But, I don’t know what Pfizer and Moderna deals look like with other countries.

As noted, not everyone is going to want the vaccine right away and it seems as if the large bulk of deliveries is expected by mid-2021 so I would assume that anyone eager to get it should be vaccinated by fall of 2021 or earlier.

 

[dhanson865]

So those of us in group 3 (general population) you are thinking would be in 2022 before all vaccinations are complete? partial herd immunity by vaccination by end of 2021?

The US government has contracts to purchase 100 million dosage pairs (first and booster) from each company with higher payments for earlier delivery but without hard timing deadlines. Historically, the US has paid more than other countries to pharma companies. But, I don’t know what Pfizer and Moderna deals look like with other countries.

As noted, not everyone is going to want the vaccine right away and it seems as if the large bulk of deliveries is expected by mid-2021 so I would assume that anyone eager to get it should be vaccinated by fall of 2021 or earlier.

Not really asking about when someone eager to get it will get it, I'm asking when wide scale vaccine campaigns in the US will end? How long will it take before they get enough people vaccinated that there not only isn't a waiting list but you consider it that enough people got vaccinated and you aren't scouring the land for more people to vaccinate. What will the transition at the end of that look like and when will we hit that transition?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not really asking about when someone eager to get it will get it, I'm asking when wide scale vaccine campaigns in the US will end? How long will it take before they get enough people vaccinated that there not only isn't a waiting list but you consider it that enough people got vaccinated and you aren't scouring the land for more people to vaccinate. What will the transition at the end of that look like and when will we hit that transition?

I expect we'll hit herd immunity due to vaccination in May. Then COVID will be over. Just like it was last August or whatever. Except better.

As Elon said, close to zero cases in US by April. He's so smart.

 

[wdolson]

Definitely starting to be a real chance the Dakotas will have a higher death rate than NYC. Not for sure yet - they need to let this thing rip for a couple more weeks then it should be a done deal. For North Dakota that would be pretty impressive as they are slightly younger than NYC on average. Great Success.

The Dakotas are already 3X NYC in COVID cases per capita.

Looking at your table...I thought there were supposed to be 20 million Moderna doses shipped to the US by the end of this year?

For example:
Moderna: 'We're Ready' To Ship 20 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Doses By The End Of 2020



That would be a massive failure of Operation Warp Speed. The whole point is to have massive quantities available when the vaccine is approved by making sure supply chains are working, and covering the costs of manufacture of vaccines that may not be approved. I’m puzzled by the minuscule Moderna quantities, since they were part of OWS. I’d expect if they have 40 million doses between the two vaccines at the end of December, they should be able to add another 80 million in January. Should be ramping up, not producing vaccine at the same rate. (This is based on nothing...just my feelings.) If this doesn’t happen, I wonder what is the point of failure, which we were trying to avoid with OWS?

The market appears to be pricing in an end to the pandemic in March or something. Somehow it knows there will be massive vaccine quantities available in the US by then.

It’ll be interesting to see how the quantities work out. There was The NY Times scare article recently describing how they were having problems producing enough doses due to access to materials. Maybe the article is right, but I’m not convinced yet that we won’t see higher than expected vaccine quantities in January/February. Again, to be clear, this is based on nothing - just my feelings (and desire for this to be over), and to some extent the marginal accuracy & unwarranted pessimism of vaccine-related reporting to date.

Also the US should get the majority of the vaccine supply, since we need it the most (though not if we keep getting infected at this rate). Seems like part of our strategy.

I think the poster was talking about the roll out plan for Colorado. There may be 20 million doses in the initial batch available nationally, but Colorado will only be getting a proportional fraction of those.

I expect we'll hit herd immunity due to vaccination in May. Then COVID will be over. Just like it was last August or whatever. Except better.

As Elon said, close to zero cases in US by April. He's so smart.

We don't know for sure how many people have had the virus, but people who have had it and recovered will contribute to the herd immunity numbers. The US may hit herd immunity from the vaccine before many other countries because the US is starting from a higher floor due to the large number of cases.

 

[dgatwood]

coincidently, just came across this article on this very topic.

A week into CNY coronavirus school testing blitz, results show very few positive cases

That's because a quarter of the people in New York City were estimated to have been exposed way back in June. At this point, there are probably only so many people left who *can* be infected.

I mean yes, I'm exaggerating a bit for humorous effect, but I wouldn't be surprised if over half were infected by now. An ultra-dense city like New York is pretty much the worst possible environment for viruses, both because of over-reliance on public transit and because of high-density housing.

New York is the one city in the country whose numbers are almost completely useless to any other part of the country from a planning perspective, because they are already so far along in the course of the epidemic.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The Dakotas are already 3X NYC in COVID cases per capita.

But not there yet on infections per capita, most likely! Or deaths, which is what I was talking about. I still think they have a real chance of getting there. Doesn’t seem like they are serious about squashing that curve, and Thanksgiving could re-accelerate the pandemic there, which seems to be topping out right now.

I think the poster was talking about the roll out plan for Colorado. There may be 20 million doses in the initial batch available nationally, but Colorado will only be getting a proportional fraction of those.

I know, I was just looking at the breakdown of his vaccine totals, and he had a zero for Moderna in December.

 

[cwerdna]

Why are people still going to bars? What Cincinnatians had to say about COVID-19 - some of what's in there is pretty disturbing but I guess not all that surprising.

In Dayton, Kentucky, inside a smoky dive bar on Berry Street, bartender Jenni Saunders says she wouldn’t heed the guidelines even if there was another shutdown.

She didn’t before.

During the first shutdown, Saunders said half of her customers started coming to her house across the street from the bar.

“We didn’t stop doing anything,” she said. “We didn’t follow the mandates. We didn’t, and I wouldn’t even if they did it again, I wouldn’t. Like, whatever, it is what it is. I’m still going to my mom and dad’s for Thanksgiving. I’m still doing the same thing. I haven’t changed any of my routine, and I’m not gonna.”

Saunders, 45, says she wears a mask when asked to at Kroger, Walmart or Target. But she doesn’t want to.
And if she’s near someone else who is wearing a mask, she doesn’t think it’s necessary.

“I don’t need one if yours is working,” Saunders said.

“I just think it’s silly. I think you should be able to choose what you want to do. You know, stay home, stay home. You want to wear a mask, wear a mask. I’m not staying home or wearing a mask. I mean except for the stores that make me or they won’t serve me. That sucks.”

Then, she added, with a laugh and a shrug, “If I die, I die.”

 

[cusetownusa]

That's because a quarter of the people in New York City were estimated to have been exposed way back in June. At this point, there are probably only so many people left who *can* be infected.

I mean yes, I'm exaggerating a bit for humorous effect, but I wouldn't be surprised if over half were infected by now. An ultra-dense city like New York is pretty much the worst possible environment for viruses, both because of over-reliance on public transit and because of high-density housing.

New York is the one city in the country whose numbers are almost completely useless to any other part of the country from a planning perspective, because they are already so far along in the course of the epidemic.

While that may be true about NYC, these are schools in Central NY State (about 4+ hours from NYC). Central NY didn’t get hit nearly as hard as NYC did early on.

 

[dgatwood]

While that may be true about NYC, these are schools in Central NY State (about 4+ hours from NYC). Central NY didn’t get hit nearly as hard as NYC did early on.

Ah. I misread that. Either way, data from a single area can easily be a fluke.

About 2.45% of Tennessee schoolchildren either have or have gotten over coronavirus as of Oct. 14, versus 3.2% of the overall population. Given that 90% of known K-12 cases are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms (and thus are unlikely to be tested), this means that the actual number of cases in schoolchildren is probably much higher than in the general population. To be fair, Tennessee mostly isn't taking the virus seriously, which is one reason that the numbers are so high, but that's still a sobering realization.

 

[TEG]

Why are people still going to bars? What Cincinnatians had to say about COVID-19 - some of what's in there is pretty disturbing but I guess not all that surprising.

Some possible rationalizations:

• "My life is in god's hands."
• "This whole thing is a political hoax."
• "I just don't think it will hit me that bad."
• "We will all get it eventually so why fight the inevitable?"
• "I just don't care what happens."
• "People die everyday. You can't live your life in fear of risks."
• "I think I already had it, and can't get it again..."
  
  And by the way, telling an alcoholic to not go to bars is asking a lot.

 

[dgatwood]

Some possible rationalizations:

Some suggested responses:

• "My life is in god's hands."

There once was a guy who lived near a river.

One day, the flood wall collapsed, and his home began to flood. Someone drove up in a big truck and said, "Hey, come let me take you to safety."

"No," the man responded. "I am a Christian, and my God will save me."

The next day, the water had risen to the second-floor windows. Someone rode by in a boat and said, "Hey! Get in! I'll take you to safety."

"No," the man repeated. "I am a Christian, and my God will save me."

On the third day, the water had risen to the roof. The man huddled for warmth outside in the rain next to the chimney. A helicopter flew overhead, and someone shouted, "Here's a harness. Fasten it around your waist, and we will carry you to safety."

"No," the man repeated. "I am a Christian, and my God will save me."

The man died. When he got to heaven, he was furious. "Lord, was I not a good Christian? Why did you do nothing to save me?"

The lord looked at him in astonishment. "I sent you a truck, a boat, and a helicopter. What were you expecting, a flaming chariot?"

• "This whole thing is a political hoax."

The election is over. It hasn't gone away. Maybe it's time to reevaluate that opinion.

• "I just don't think it will hit me that bad."

What about your parents/grandparents?

• "We will all get it eventually so why fight the inevitable?"

Because every day, we get closer to having a vaccine, and the more people who get it before the vaccine, the more people will die. Because every day, the treatments get better, and the more people who get it early, the more people will die. Because every day, the number of people getting sick is getting larger, and hospitals are already at the breaking point. The more people who can't get proper medical care because the hospitals are overwhelmed, the more people will die.

• "I just don't care what happens."

I feel sorry for anybody who gives that answer. It must be sad not to care about anyone.

• "People die everyday. You can't live your life in fear of risks."

People die in car crashes every day. Never before have I heard someone suggest that wearing a seatbelt is "living in fear of risks". Masks are seatbelts for the lungs. Not living in fear need not mean living with reckless abandon.